Snap General Election called

[Peat]

Does it really matter what the Mail's reasons are, and I'll also note that Brexit-supporting papers are behind some of the 'attack', the fact is that there is now such a weighty body of evidence that if it were a Conservative MP Corbyn would be on his highest of high horses demanding a resignation - and rightly so.

Not really, but I enjoy occasional speculations on the unknowable and pointless, which is why I like talking about politics.

I think you're underestimating the risk of someone like Umunna. There's still a large part of the Labour party that sees that their last electoral victory was when they sat firmly in the centre/slightly to the right and will go for that again (ignoring the fact that the centre itself has now shifted far to the right), especially if the argument is made that the left have had their chance and haven't got anywhere. Plus he's always been very staunchly anti-Brexit and has rebelled against Corbyn on that a lot, which gives him another unifying route. If he gets some momentum (no pun intended), he could get somewhere.

Is there? I forget the exact numbers but we know a ton of people only saw fit to join Labour after they saw an opportunity to move Labour away from that point and a decent whack of people left after Corbyn took over. I again forget the numbers on Corbyn's victory over Owen Smith (soft left rather than Labour right) but, huge.

As such, I'm not seeing it.

[Digby]

I read today that Vince’s days are numbered.

He's not exactly the young man of liberal politics, he could drop any day

I forget her name butI think the Lib Dems have a female spokesperson on education who looks good for a leadership role, she speaks well, whether she proves up to task we'll have to wait and see. I know they're also mulling the idea the leader needn't be an MP given a choice more limited than Corbyn's take on Israel, but that's problematic given the role of parliament

[Sandydragon]

I read today that Vince’s days are numbered.

He's not exactly the young man of liberal politics, he could drop any day

I forget her name butI think the Lib Dems have a female spokesperson on education who looks good for a leadership role, she speaks well, whether she proves up to task we'll have to wait and see. I know they're also mulling the idea the leader needn't be an MP given a choice more limited than Corbyn's take on Israel, but that's problematic given the role of parliament

Yeah, I can’t see how you can be a party leader and not an MP. It’s not like we have an elected president. That said, I can see the value in non MPs with a public presence being a supporting act, after all La our has the unions and the Tories have big business leaders.

[Sandydragon]

The number of new Labour members would make a leadership bid by anyone not on the left of the party a remote chance. I suggest that if they become disillusioned and leave it’s a different ball game. But right now, moderate labour MPs aren’t on the sam page as their party membership.

[Digby]

Labour NEC deselects Ann Black and appoints Yasmin Dar, which suggests again it's not enough to be well over to the left, there needs to be zeal in the support given to the Glorious Leader

[Sandydragon]

Labour NEC deselects Ann Black and appoints Yasmin Dar, which suggests again it's not enough to be well over to the left, there needs to be zeal in the support given to the Glorious Leader

It’s a long road back for anyone vaguely moderate.

[Digby]

Presently it's not just a long road back but starting on an incline so steep it's hard to see how they wouldn't either stall or burn out the clutch, on the off chance someone can even be bothered to try. And yet, they're not that far behind in the polls

[Mellsblue]

Presently it's not just a long road back but starting on an incline so steep it's hard to see how they wouldn't either stall or burn out the clutch, on the off chance someone can even be bothered to try. And yet, they're not that far behind in the polls

Behind. They’re ahead!!

[Peat]

Presently it's not just a long road back but starting on an incline so steep it's hard to see how they wouldn't either stall or burn out the clutch, on the off chance someone can even be bothered to try. And yet, they're not that far behind in the polls

Behind. They’re ahead!!

Depends which poll you're looking at.

I do wonder at what point the Labour party splits.

[Mellsblue]

Presently it's not just a long road back but starting on an incline so steep it's hard to see how they wouldn't either stall or burn out the clutch, on the off chance someone can even be bothered to try. And yet, they're not that far behind in the polls

Behind. They’re ahead!!

Depends which poll you're looking at.

I do wonder at what point the Labour party splits.

Poll of polls has them 0.5 ahead. Miles within margin of error, obvs, but still ahead.
As for which they point at. Probably the one that called the GE correctly (and won me a few quid) and has them 4 points (I think) ahead.

[Puja]

Presently it's not just a long road back but starting on an incline so steep it's hard to see how they wouldn't either stall or burn out the clutch, on the off chance someone can even be bothered to try. And yet, they're not that far behind in the polls

Behind. They’re ahead!!

Depends which poll you're looking at.

I do wonder at what point the Labour party splits.

I don't think it will. The left didn't secede when Blair was in; they just whined a lot and agitated. I think the same will happen from the right and they'll wait their turn. The various bits of Labour may hate each other, but they're aware that a split will make them utterly irrelevant and guarantee Tory governments as far as the eye can see. And while they hate each other, it's nothing for what they feel about the Conservatives.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

Behind. They’re ahead!!

Depends which poll you're looking at.

I do wonder at what point the Labour party splits.

I don't think it will. The left didn't secede when Blair was in; they just whined a lot and agitated. I think the same will happen from the right and they'll wait their turn. The various bits of Labour may hate each other, but they're aware that a split will make them utterly irrelevant and guarantee Tory governments as far as the eye can see. And while they hate each other, it's nothing for what they feel about the Conservatives.

Puja

I doubt they will split, but the ‘Blairites’ have more in common with the ‘Cameroons’ than they do with the ‘Corbynistas’.

[Mellsblue]

Looks like the MSM are ‘smearing’ yet another of our politicians who inexplicably has a cultish following:

[Digby]

Like the David Mellor story it seems weird even one woman was willing to sleep with him

[Sandydragon]

The promise of political power. Helping ugly people have sex for centuries.

[Mellsblue]

Sarkozy and Bruni being the ultimate example.

[Peat]

Behind. They’re ahead!!

Depends which poll you're looking at.

I do wonder at what point the Labour party splits.

I don't think it will. The left didn't secede when Blair was in; they just whined a lot and agitated. I think the same will happen from the right and they'll wait their turn. The various bits of Labour may hate each other, but they're aware that a split will make them utterly irrelevant and guarantee Tory governments as far as the eye can see. And while they hate each other, it's nothing for what they feel about the Conservatives.

Puja

I will admit to stealing most of my logic from Stephen Bush, but I think the split is now inevitable.

A lot of Corbyn hating MPs will agree with you, but I think there's 10-15 who hate Corbyn just as much as the Tories and feel they'll be just as irrelevant inside a Corbynite party as they would be outside - assuming re-selections don't get them first. They have no reason not to jump and therefore simply have to work out a better odds solution outside. And sooner or later they will.

Mells - Thanks for the poll info.

[Stom]

Depends which poll you're looking at.

I do wonder at what point the Labour party splits.

I don't think it will. The left didn't secede when Blair was in; they just whined a lot and agitated. I think the same will happen from the right and they'll wait their turn. The various bits of Labour may hate each other, but they're aware that a split will make them utterly irrelevant and guarantee Tory governments as far as the eye can see. And while they hate each other, it's nothing for what they feel about the Conservatives.

Puja

I will admit to stealing most of my logic from Stephen Bush, but I think the split is now inevitable.

A lot of Corbyn hating MPs will agree with you, but I think there's 10-15 who hate Corbyn just as much as the Tories and feel they'll be just as irrelevant inside a Corbynite party as they would be outside - assuming re-selections don't get them first. They have no reason not to jump and therefore simply have to work out a better odds solution outside. And sooner or later they will.

Mells - Thanks for the poll info.

It would probably be better for British politics to have 3 parties covering the ground: a right wing party, a centrist part and a left wing party. It would probably result in more hung parliaments and more deals, but it would hopefully make things a little better...

BTW, I don't know why you call the Labour "centrists" moderates. They're far from moderate. Just because someone is closer to your views doesn't make them a moderate...

[fivepointer]

Depends which poll you're looking at.

I do wonder at what point the Labour party splits.

I don't think it will. The left didn't secede when Blair was in; they just whined a lot and agitated. I think the same will happen from the right and they'll wait their turn. The various bits of Labour may hate each other, but they're aware that a split will make them utterly irrelevant and guarantee Tory governments as far as the eye can see. And while they hate each other, it's nothing for what they feel about the Conservatives.

Puja

I will admit to stealing most of my logic from Stephen Bush, but I think the split is now inevitable.

A lot of Corbyn hating MPs will agree with you, but I think there's 10-15 who hate Corbyn just as much as the Tories and feel they'll be just as irrelevant inside a Corbynite party as they would be outside - assuming re-selections don't get them first. They have no reason not to jump and therefore simply have to work out a better odds solution outside. And sooner or later they will.

Mells - Thanks for the poll info.

Bush knows his stuff and is well worth following.

A split has already started with Woodcock and Field peeling off and others very likely to go the same way, particularly if there is no real leadership on Brexit and the anti semitism issue. Conference will tell us a lot more and this could trigger some resignations.

Its just a matter of how many and whether they can form some sort of breakaway party.

[Sandydragon]

Sarkozy and Bruni being the ultimate example.

Bunga Bunga?

[Peat]

I don't think it will. The left didn't secede when Blair was in; they just whined a lot and agitated. I think the same will happen from the right and they'll wait their turn. The various bits of Labour may hate each other, but they're aware that a split will make them utterly irrelevant and guarantee Tory governments as far as the eye can see. And while they hate each other, it's nothing for what they feel about the Conservatives.

Puja

I will admit to stealing most of my logic from Stephen Bush, but I think the split is now inevitable.

A lot of Corbyn hating MPs will agree with you, but I think there's 10-15 who hate Corbyn just as much as the Tories and feel they'll be just as irrelevant inside a Corbynite party as they would be outside - assuming re-selections don't get them first. They have no reason not to jump and therefore simply have to work out a better odds solution outside. And sooner or later they will.

Mells - Thanks for the poll info.

It would probably be better for British politics to have 3 parties covering the ground: a right wing party, a centrist part and a left wing party. It would probably result in more hung parliaments and more deals, but it would hopefully make things a little better...

BTW, I don't know why you call the Labour "centrists" moderates. They're far from moderate. Just because someone is closer to your views doesn't make them a moderate...

Because in terms of the great spectrum of British politics, their view points are by and large not extreme and quite close to the average?

What's not moderate about their views?

[Mellsblue]

Sarkozy and Bruni being the ultimate example.

Bunga Bunga?

Good point. Bruni is a world class catch, though. If she were 20 years younger Silvio probably would’ve got there first.

[Puja]

I don't think it will. The left didn't secede when Blair was in; they just whined a lot and agitated. I think the same will happen from the right and they'll wait their turn. The various bits of Labour may hate each other, but they're aware that a split will make them utterly irrelevant and guarantee Tory governments as far as the eye can see. And while they hate each other, it's nothing for what they feel about the Conservatives.

Puja

I will admit to stealing most of my logic from Stephen Bush, but I think the split is now inevitable.

A lot of Corbyn hating MPs will agree with you, but I think there's 10-15 who hate Corbyn just as much as the Tories and feel they'll be just as irrelevant inside a Corbynite party as they would be outside - assuming re-selections don't get them first. They have no reason not to jump and therefore simply have to work out a better odds solution outside. And sooner or later they will.

Mells - Thanks for the poll info.

Bush knows his stuff and is well worth following.

A split has already started with Woodcock and Field peeling off and others very likely to go the same way, particularly if there is no real leadership on Brexit and the anti semitism issue. Conference will tell us a lot more and this could trigger some resignations.

Its just a matter of how many and whether they can form some sort of breakaway party.

I think a lot of them will be gnashing their teeth that they didn't support AV when it was on the table. With FPTP, any breakaway will be an irrelevance and voters in these polarised times give short shrift to those changing parties mid-term - just look at the Conservative to UKIP defectees and how they fared after turning their coats.

The only people who will break away will be those like Field, who was about to get deselected by his local party anyway for being daft enough to prop up the Chequers plan when May was on the rack. Anyone who's discontented but likely to keep their candidacy won't leave; they like power too much.

Puja

[kk67]

That would explain why Boris was so reluctant to give up his grace and favour residence.

Who is the lucky lady...?. The papps are going to go mental trying to find out. I think he had a canter on Rowan Pelling before ?.... maybe he's gone for a brideshead revisited.

[Peat]

I think a lot of them will be gnashing their teeth that they didn't support AV when it was on the table. With FPTP, any breakaway will be an irrelevance and voters in these polarised times give short shrift to those changing parties mid-term - just look at the Conservative to UKIP defectees and how they fared after turning their coats.

The only people who will break away will be those like Field, who was about to get deselected by his local party anyway for being daft enough to prop up the Chequers plan when May was on the rack. Anyone who's discontented but likely to keep their candidacy won't leave; they like power too much.

Puja

I just got signed out and lost my post so this will be brief, but

a) Read this, particularly the bit about the expecting deselections - https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/u ... corbyn-MPs

b) There's no end of politicians fighting long gambles and quixotic causes due to principles, emotion, and a lack of options. See above for lack of options; the situation is certainly emotionally charged; and if you believe the Labour right has principles, campaigning to make Corbyn Prime Minister betrays them (particularly those who've called Corbyn a racist/the Labour party institutionally anti-Semitic). We have the perfect apex here.

c) John McDonnell's interview with the NS and Chuka Umuna's letter to his constituency party are further grist to the mill of this is getting serious.