Who will be in the 31-man All Blacks RWC Squad?

[Lizard]

My prediction:
Looseheads: Moody, Tu’inukuafe, Perry
Tightheads: Franks, Tu’ungafasi, Laulala
Hookers: Coles, Taylor, Harris
Locks: Whitelock, Retallick, S. Barrett,
Loose forwards: Squire, Cane, Read, Savea, Todd
Halfbacks: A. Smith, Perenara, Tahuriorangi
1st5/8s: B. Barrett, Mo’unga
Mid-fielders: Crotty, ALB, Goodhue, SBW
Wingers: R. Ioane, Naholo
Fullbacks: B. Smith, McKenzie
Utility: J. Barrett

Bear in mind there’s probably only 5 All Blacks tests to go before RWC2019 (see below), so not much time for bolters to come through. A lot of the squad picks itself, with the interesting questions coming in the mid-field and loose forward combos. Like 2015, I think we will see a 17:14 foward/back split but the finer balance will be different.

In the forwards, I don’t think they will ask Tu’ungafasi to cover both sides like Ben Franks did, so we need 3 in each front row position. Perry is the only marginal call here but he is the “incumbent” 3rd tier loosehead. As in 2015, 3 locks will suffice (harsh on Tuipulotu, I guess). Scott Barrett covers 6, and Savea covers 8, so we can get by with 5 loosies. Squire and Todd have been the preferred back-ups but I’m sure there will be disagreement about whether they should be.

In the backs, you would rather not have a third-string halfback with so few caps but TTT’s 3 is the best we can muster in this respect. This seems to have been a bit of a blind-spot by the selectors. I hope he gets a shitload of game time in the truncated TRC. Playmakers B. Barrett, Mo’unga and McKenzie will all be in the squad but I expect D-Mack will spend more time at fullback than 10. The mid-field continues to be a bit of a headache (in a good way) – I can’t decide whether Shag & Co think Crotty/Goodhue or Crotty/ALB is the better combo to start. Sonny Bill will be in the squad but I would prefer him to stay sitting down until the game is in the bag. Laumape could be a marginal omission as possible specialist cover to make room for Jordie Barrett in a utility role, which could be useful given the mix of other multi-positional players. That leaves room for Reiko Ioane, Naholo and Ben Smith at the back, with cover from McKenzie and 2 Barretts (and SBW at a pinch on the wing). The only other real option would be NMS, but he won’t be fit until at least January and in all likelihood will break again before September.

2019 Schedule:
(6 July: Super Rugby final)
???????: NZ v Argentina, TBC (might be between Bledisloe II and Tonga)
27 July: NZ v RSA, Wellington
10 August: Aust v NZ, Perth
17 August: NZ v Aust, Auckland
7 September: NZ v Tonga, Hamilton

21 September: NZ v South Africa, Yokohama
2 October: NZ v Canada, Oita
6 October: NZ v Namibia, Tokyo
12 October: NZ v Italy, Toyota
19/20 October: possible QF, Tokyo
26/27 October: possible SF, Yokohama
1 November: possible Bronze Final, Tokyo
2 November: possible Final, Yokohama

[Lizard]

Well, with a divergence of opinion like this I can see the mods better keep an eye on this thread to avoid it getting too heated. I mean, McKenzie has had 15 starts at fullback and only one at 10, so only a feeble-minded nincompoop would say he is a utility. He's as much a utility as Beauden Barrett is (2 starts at 15, 41 at 10).

Seriously, it's probably a good place to be if the only real issues are whether Liam Squire is up to it, whether utility props are still a thing, and exactly how we should be categorizing Damien McKenzie positionally.

[Lizard]

Rather have a butt for a face than shit for brains. Like you. With your shitty brains.

[morepork]

That escalated quickly.

[Lizard]

Sorry. I waded into one of those Twitter threads yesterday where one person who actually knows what they are talking about is being abused by some abusive, prejudiced know-it-all. I was going to suggest that they were ignorant, stupid, rude or all three when I caught myself and instead just posted a link to some factual information pertinent to the discussion. The abuser replied to the effect that they hadn’t realised they didn’t know the full story, thanked me, and left the thread. I’m not quite sure how to handle this unTwitterish behaviour so I came on here to lash out at people who are just trying to help.

You cunt.

[morepork]

Is Ardie the back up No.8?

[J Dory]

I'm hopeful that next year will be the season that Akira Ioane demands inclusion.

[Mikey Brown]

Even as a supporter of two sides who'd really struggle to topple the ABs anyway, it's hard not to want to see a prime Nonu return for the RWC.

[Lizard]

Do people really think Nonu has a shot?

Look, I would love it if he proved he was still at his peak but he’s been out of the side for 3 years. It’s not just a matter of slotting back in with players and game plans he already knows. He will be 37 before the All Blacks’ next test match. That will make him the second oldest All Black ever, ahead of Brad Thorn, Mealamu and Bunce, and behind only Ned Hughes (who was recalled aged 40 to play the 1921 Springboks, having last appeared in Black against the 1908 Lions!).

[morepork]

I am pretty skeptical. It's all very hypothetical. I think SBW needs a rocket up him also. Nonu hasn't set Europe on fire and bringing him in on an assumption is not great management. That is England level disharmony. Brad got a shot after a couple of seasons cracking heads and being a raspy voiced all round good cunt.

[Mikey Brown]

It's a weird one because Nonu has been pretty all over the place, but shown himself to be a big game player, as much as I hate the phrase. He might understandably be nowhere near the level required anymore.

It might be a case of throwing a game his way and saying if you're really still up to it, then show it now.

[Lizard]

We’ve got 5 tests before Japan. Which one do you use to experiment with a fringe selection hunch rather than use to fine-tune your game plan with a settled squad?

[Lizard]

Which other pro All Blacks have played overseas and successfully returned? I can only think of 4 and of them only Brad Thorn would have done anything close to what Nonu is attempting.

Kaino: Spent 2012-13 playing in Japan but intending to return, reselected for the All Blacks in 2014.

Thorn: Returned to the NRL in 2005. Came back to NZ end of 2007, regaining his Black jersey in 2008.

Carter: 6 month “sabbatical” in France, missing only the first 6 tests of 2009 due to injury sustained in France.

Matt Todd: Fringe player in any event, he went to Japan on a one season deal before TRC2018. He was recalled to cover an injured Sam Cane in November 2018. He was out of contention for 6 tests, but in reality would not have been selected for more than 1 or 2 (most likely at Nelson v Argentina, when Frizzell and Savea paired up with Luke Whitelock on the bench).

[Lizard]

Good spotting.

MacDonald had just the one year break in Japan - more akin to Kaino than Nonu.

I can’t believe I forgot about SBW going back to league (via union in Japan) for a refresher course in shoulder-charging. So he missed from the 2013 November tour, through to 2014 TRC - effectively one year as well.

So still only Thorn who has been out for several years and made it back.

Mind you, has anyone else even tried that? Did Thorn have his hat in the ring at the Highlanders in 2013? I’m sure a couple of old buggers have come back from Japan and had a run in the Mitre 10 cup but I can’t think of any serious contenders.

[Lizard]

Luke McAlister is in the club. After cocking up RWC2007 for us he went to Sale, before playing 8 tests in 2009.

[Lizard]

I’ve got another one - my distant cousin Daniel Braid player 2 seasons for the Reds before winning his last 2 caps in 2010.

[Lizard]

So it looks like the conundrum of what to do with Damien McKenzie (is he a back-up 10, a specialist fullback or a utility bench player?) may have been resolved. He's out with a torn ACL so is unlikely to be fit for RWC2019.

I think this means that Ben Smith is nailed on as 1st XV starting fullback. I guess Jordie Barrett would be cover.

Here's the "foundation squad" amended as at 15 April. I will try to keep this updated as time goes on:

Forwards: Dane Coles, Liam Coltman, Nathan Harris, Codie Taylor, Owen Franks, Nepo Laulala, Tyrel Lomax, Joe Moody, Angus Ta'avao, Karl Tu'inukuafe, Ofa Tuungafasi, Scott Barrett, Jackson Hemopo, Brodie Retallick, Patrick Tuipulotu, Samuel Whitelock, Sam Cane, Vaea Fifita, Shannon Frizell, Akira Ioane, Kieran Read, Ardie Savea, Liam Squire, Matt Todd and Luke Whitelock.

Backs: TJ Perenara, Aaron Smith, Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, Beauden Barrett,Damian McKenzie, Richie Mo'unga, Ryan Crotty, Jack Goodhue, Ngani Laumape, Anton Lienert-Brown, Sonny Bill Williams, Jordie Barrett, George Bridge, Rieko Ioane, Waisake Naholo and Ben Smith.

[Lizard]

My preferred RWC match-day XXIII from the squad above):

1. Moody
2. Coles
3. Franks
4. Retallick
5. Whitelock
6. Squire
7. Cane
8. Read
9. A. Smith
10. B. Barrett
11. R. Ioane
12. Williams
13. Crotty
14 W. Naholo
15. B. Smith

16. Taylor
17. Tu'inukuafe
18. Tu'ungafasi
19. S. Barrett
20. A. Ioane
21. Perenara
22. Mo'unga
23. J. Barrett

Blindside and the centre combination were a bit sticky. The loss of McKenzie means having Mo'unga on the bench but only covering one position, which means you basically have to pick J. Barrett for his versatility, rather than a Laumape or ALB.

[Lizard]

And just while I'm talking to myself, here are the candidates for bolter at 10 when Barrett and/or Mo'unga go down:

Marty Banks
Otere Black
Brett Cameron
Jack Debreczeni (assuming he hasn't committed to Australia)
Stephen Donald
Tiaan Falcon
Jackson Gardner-Bachop
Bryn Gatland
Mitchell Hunt
Josh Ioane
Marty McKenzie
Stephen Perofeta
Harry Plummer
Fletcher Smith

Cameron has a cap, but I would say Black or even Gatland would be better options.

[zer0]

The loss of McKenzie means having Mo'unga on the bench but only covering one position, which means you basically have to pick J. Barrett for his versatility, rather than a Laumape or ALB.

I don't see why. In that configuration, Mo'unga covers 10, Barrett 10 & 15, B.Smith 15 & 14, ALB 12 & 13.

As it is, I'm still going for a backline of:

9. A.Smith
10. Mo'unga
11. Ioane
12. Crotty/Nonu (ideally Nonu)
13. Goodhue
14. B.Smith
15. B.Barrett

21. Perenara
22. Lienert-Brown
23. Bridge/Jordan

EDIT: As much of a fan as I am of A.Ioane, if it comes to a shootout with Savea for the bench spot, he won't win that battle. Though, IIRC, in 2015 they didn't carry lock cover on the bench. It's risky, especially given how good Best Barrett is, but you could always go for a Savea and A.Ioane double punch off the bench. Any opponent would be very hard pressed to try and contain them both in the final quarter.

[Lizard]

Debreczeni won't be eligible for another couple of years.

He was born in Auckland.

[Lizard]

I'd consider swapping Squire out for Fifita or Hemopo. If we're going purely on form, it'll be hard to look past Big Red Tom Robinson, but he's probably a prospect for next year.

In the midfield, swap SBW for Nonu.

Also, put J. Barrett in at 14.

I had Fifita down at first, but then put Squire in. I think experience counts at a RWC , and 23 caps beats 9.

I'm only selecting from the official foundation squad, so Nonu didn't figure but he is looking good.

Do you think there is enough match time to convert J. Barrett properly? I think the dual-fullback system works in general but it might take some time to bed down.

[Lizard]

The loss of McKenzie means having Mo'unga on the bench but only covering one position, which means you basically have to pick J. Barrett for his versatility, rather than a Laumape or ALB.

I don't see why. In that configuration, Mo'unga covers 10, Barrett 10 & 15, B.Smith 15 & 14, ALB 12 & 13.

As it is, I'm still going for a backline of:

9. A.Smith
10. Mo'unga
11. Ioane
12. Crotty/Nonu (ideally Nonu)
13. Goodhue
14. B.Smith
15. B.Barrett

21. Perenara
22. Lienert-Brown
23. Bridge/Jordan

EDIT: As much of a fan as I am of A.Ioane, if it comes to a shootout with Savea for the bench spot, he won't win that battle. Though, IIRC, in 2015 they didn't carry lock cover on the bench. It's risky, especially given how good Best Barrett is, but you could always go for a Savea and A.Ioane double punch off the bench. Any opponent would be very hard pressed to try and contain them both in the final quarter.

Yep. 6 and Loosie bench cover were hard. I would be pretty happy with Savea, but Ioane's current form is ace.

In the backs, I think Crotty is still a mandatory selection. The back-line organisation is much better when he is there.

You could go for Full-power Finishing with Nonu and A. Ioane on the bench alongside Tu'inukuafe!

[morepork]

Relying quite a lot on Bin Smuff aren't we?

[morepork]

There is talk of Otere Black as a potential bolter, now that McKenzie is confirmed out of the tournament. The consistent game time he's getting, and being behind a competitive pack is definitely helping, but his lack of a big boot needs to be worked on - something that McKenzie had developed over the last few years.

Relying quite a lot on Bin Smuff aren't we?

I could see my boy Dave Havili making it into the squad - dude tends to make the right call, has the versatility to be able to cover fullback, wing and 12, and has a massive boot, which will come in handy when he's hanging back to fullback. I think he's also been mentioned a few times as a possibility.

Has Black got the mean high impact of the bench madness of DMac?