Brexit delayed

[Mellsblue]

Crabb is not too bad when he’s not being a perv.

What Dunt said above is mostly true. We are a shambles and it is embarrassing. However, I’ll argue to the cows come home that parliament not just accepting the deal put before them as fait accompli does not make us unreliable negotiating partners. I’d also point out that we’ve signed a fair few deals with non-EU27 countries for existing arrangements to continue once we leave and a lot of countries have come forward saying that they will be happy to negotiate FTA’s with us once we are able to. Though, that maybe because they think they can take us to the cleaners. A further point is that negotiating an FTA with a country you have no current relationship with is a whole lot easier than disentangling yourself from the EU whilst respecting the GFA.

[Digby]

Voting down May's deal is in itself fine, also voting down no deal in addition to voting down indicative votes is however pathetic. The problem of us addressing a non party political issue within party political structures is hardly unique to us, but refusing across the board to seek a unity position and even look like we'll vastly increase the powers of the executive at cost to democracy whilst simultaneously refusing to plan for the fact we don't want to make any decisions, that's not perhaps unique but rather more unusual

[Digby]

I've made no effort to check out the story as reported, but on the Today programme earlier they were reporting investment by car manufacturers in the UK has fallen over the last three years by 80%, maybe it's all project fear, my judgement is perhaps out on account of being so fearful

[Zhivago]

I've made no effort to check out the story as reported, but on the Today programme earlier they were reporting investment by car manufacturers in the UK has fallen over the last three years by 80%, maybe it's all project fear, my judgement is perhaps out on account of being so fearful

source?

[Digby]

I've made no effort to check out the story as reported, but on the Today programme earlier they were reporting investment by car manufacturers in the UK has fallen over the last three years by 80%, maybe it's all project fear, my judgement is perhaps out on account of being so fearful

source?

The Today programme, as alluded to, I wasn't planning on contacting them to chase it further

[Zhivago]

I've made no effort to check out the story as reported, but on the Today programme earlier they were reporting investment by car manufacturers in the UK has fallen over the last three years by 80%, maybe it's all project fear, my judgement is perhaps out on account of being so fearful

source?

The Today programme, as alluded to, I wasn't planning on contacting them to chase it further

It sounds a bit extreme, 80% less. Maybe they're right about this project fear thing. GFCF figures look alright for the motor manufacturing industry at least up to 2017.

[twitchy]

[fivepointer]

The effects of "no deal" by David Henig

No deal advocates have no plan for no deal.

Never mind the more excitable stories, the following WILL happen in a no-deal Brexit

1/
UK products will face tariffs if sold into the EU - for example cars at 10% and shoes at 8%. Some UK producers will become uncompetitive when facing these tariffs, especially compared to EU producers, and will therefore cease production

2/
UK products which require testing to be placed on the EU market will need a test carried out within the EU, a UK test will not be sufficient. This will add costs to production.

3/
There will be no customs cooperation between the UK and EU, thus for example no mutual recognition of the Authorised Economic Operator scheme. Products are therefore likely to take more time to go through customs checks

4/
UK agricultural exporters will face potentially even higher tariffs, such as 42% on cheddar cheese. Our access to the lower tariff rate quotas is uncertain, without which many agricultural exports will be incompetitive

5/
There will also be extensive checks on EU agricultural exports to the EU, which will further add costs, and there will not be veterinary equivalence schemes in place to facilitate these

6/
UK service providers will not have the right to sell certain services across the EU, particularly direct from the UK. In many cases they will have to set up new offices in the EU

7/
Many UK based staff will not have the right to work across the EU, for example as tour reps for UK travel companies. EU citizens would have to take these roles

8/
UK haulage companies would not be able to carry loads between EU destinations, and could for the short term only carry from UK to an EU destination and return. This will make them uncompetitive to EU hauliers

9/
The tariffs on goods, and restrictions on services, will also apply to countries with who the EU has a current trade agreement that the UK fails to replicate - for example there is likely to be no agreement with Turkey

10/
In no-deal Brexit there will be no agreement with the EU on data adequacy or financial services equivalence. This will mean extra cost for all UK companies who move data between UK and EU for example

11/
The UK Government will have to decide on whether to keep or reduce our own tariffs. This will not be an easy decision - lower tariffs may help consumers but harm UK producers and developing countries who currently get particular privileges

12/
Over 50% of UK trade will be affected by these changes. Less than 10% of EU trade will be affected by these changes. UK costs will rise, EU costs are unlikely to do so. This will be a major change to the terms of trade between us

13/
These issues are why even no-deal advocates talk of 'managed no-deal', or a deal with the EU. But if all of this is going to affect the UK more than the EU there is no reason for the EU to offer a more generous deal than that on offer now

14/
All of these are the sort of issues which are typically resolved in a free trade agreement. But these take time, typically in the EU 5-7 years. Waiting this time would mean all of these issues being maintained, affecting UK competitiveness

15/
Some no-deal advocates claim the UK could gain competitiveness by scrapping EU regulations, however it would be difficult then to negotiate a trade deal with the EU at the same time.

16/
The UK is expecting to start Free Trade Agreement negotiations with US and others in a no-deal situation. However if the UK economy is changing it will not be clear which sectors the UK should prioritise.

17/
Well known incompatibilities between US and EU will also cause problems, if we accept US agriculture this will make a good trade deal with the EU harder. It will take time for the UK to make these decisions

18/
As from the date of a no-deal Brexit UK companies will have no easy redress for business issues in the EU or countries with whom there is no trade agreement e.g. delayed containers, staff refused permission to work.

19/
The UK Government will have to take business issues up diplomatically with the EU, a process that typically takes a number of years to resolve individual issues. EU Single Market tools like Solvit will not be available

20/
It is all of these reasons - not even the more excitable shortage stories - why the EU believes the threat of no-deal to be non-credible. They believe that no UK Government could survive the economic harm likely from the above

21/
There is no plan from no-deal supporters to address the issues outlined above. The Government's plan is to hope the absolute worst doesn't happen, but they also have no realistic future plan

22/
No-deal puts up a high economic barrier between the UK and our largest and nearest trading partner. This cannot be a sustainable long term position, and never has been in 2000 years.

23/
As workers and consumers no deal has the potential to cause problems for millions in the UK, particularly if it happens in less than two months. This is now the key message that needs to be spread

24/ end

[canta_brian]

Seaborne Freight. An apology.

I have to admit that I thought Seaborne had been given a made up contract so that the government didn’t have the embarrassment of relying entirely on foreign firms to supply our freight handling contingency. It seems I was wrong. Arklow shipping (ROI) have just withdrawn their support for Seaborne meaning the contract has needed to be pulled. Anyone with a 100% British made up shipping should probably contact Chris Grayling asap.

[Digby]

That's just the boats. Failin' Grayling also took out that contract with no shipping routes, no staff, no funding in place and no ports available.

There has been comment Seaborne have received no public money, which makes me wonder do they mean yet, or do they mean they paid another private company and thus public money didn't directly go to Seaborne?

[Digby]

And the government confirms in the interests of democracy and doing something almost nobody wants the meaningful vote could well be delayed until days before we crash out

Hard to sympathise with those MPs who've previously passed on opportunities to take away control from a demented government and now declare themselves shocked that May would be so brazen

[Digby]

The latest idiot in the Brexit secretary job on Today this morning couldn't answer what our tariffs will be, when they'll publish a tariff schedule, what regulations will apply, when hauliers will know if they can operate in Europe...

I'm beyond feeling embarrassed about my country, or maybe it's a mix of embarrassment, anger and despair. I suppose it shows Tusk was right about the place in hell, but it's not of any use

[Sandydragon]

The latest idiot in the Brexit secretary job on Today this morning couldn't answer what our tariffs will be, when they'll publish a tariff schedule, what regulations will apply, when hauliers will know if they can operate in Europe...

I'm beyond feeling embarrassed about my country, or maybe it's a mix of embarrassment, anger and despair. I suppose it shows Tusk was right about the place in hell, but it's not of any use

I know. It’s incredible. I really wouldn’t blame anyone for emigrating.

[Zhivago]

The latest idiot in the Brexit secretary job on Today this morning couldn't answer what our tariffs will be, when they'll publish a tariff schedule, what regulations will apply, when hauliers will know if they can operate in Europe...

I'm beyond feeling embarrassed about my country, or maybe it's a mix of embarrassment, anger and despair. I suppose it shows Tusk was right about the place in hell, but it's not of any use

Question is... how deep are they?

[Puja]

Oh, and Theresa May lost the motion to approach the EU to renegotiate their exit, 303 to 258. Some outlets say it's a blow to her credibility and authority. Funny, I didn't realise she had any of either left.

This bit is the best bit from the BBC article: "Downing Street blamed Mr Corbyn for the defeat, saying he had "yet again put partisan considerations ahead of the national interest" by voting against the government's motion."

How dare the opposition vote against a motion endorsing the government's policy when they oppose it! It's just partisan considerations!

I just don't know what May is hoping to accomplish. Her plan doesn't have a majority by a long distance, but her only idea is to keep pushing it and hope enough people decide, "Fuck it, at least it's not no deal," before the deadline comes.

Puja

[Zhivago]

I just don't know what May is hoping to accomplish.

I doubt she does either.

Olly Robbins is running the show

[Which Tyler]

I just don't know what May is hoping to accomplish.

Nobody ever did, including himself. He's got a lot better this season though - unlike our PM who's decided that the best way out of a hole is to keep digging downwards.

[Digby]

It's frustrating what May's doing but it's getting hard to see how it doesn't work given the MPs keep passing up opportunities to deny no deal and/or take control for parliament

The choice between no deal and May's deal is depressing in the extreme but there’s only one possible choice if MPs let it get that far

[fivepointer]

Ian Dunt on excellent form - http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/02 ... -comes-tum

"There is really no government. It exists only on a formal level. As a functioning entity, it has ceased to exist. Its deal was demolished. Its negotiating mandate, which never had any content anyway, was rejected. It is a wisp of smoke, a lingering smell from somebody dreadful who already left the room.

Now, finally, MPs have to take back control. The fact that this even needs saying, that it did not happen weeks ago, should be a source of eternal shame to this parliament. But even if they did not have the spine then, they must discover it now.

This is where myth-making and fairytales get you: precisely nowhere. We need a concrete, meaningful plan to stave off disaster, with a firm and realistic timetable. That begins with a mechanism - not a principle, a mechanism - for extending Article 50. If they don't secure that soon, we're all going the way of the government"

[Banquo]

Oh, and Theresa May lost the motion to approach the EU to renegotiate their exit, 303 to 258. Some outlets say it's a blow to her credibility and authority. Funny, I didn't realise she had any of either left.

This bit is the best bit from the BBC article: "Downing Street blamed Mr Corbyn for the defeat, saying he had "yet again put partisan considerations ahead of the national interest" by voting against the government's motion."

How dare the opposition vote against a motion endorsing the government's policy when they oppose it! It's just partisan considerations!

I just don't know what May is hoping to accomplish. Her plan doesn't have a majority by a long distance, but her only idea is to keep pushing it and hope enough people decide, "Fuck it, at least it's not no deal," before the deadline comes.

Puja

Labour don't oppose the policy though; and the backstop agreement is pretty much their exit scenario. They may have other ideas- unworkable and a bit unicorny- on how to do it, but they are committed to a leave policy, even in an election scenario.

May's plan is exactly as you describe. There is no form of Withdrawal Agreement that can command a straightforward majority from the Tories/DUP alone, except maybe a time limit on the backstop, which is what she is trying to get.

Leaving is fcking stupid, but since Labour dare not oppose it (and in Corbyn and McDonnell's case welcome it) for fear of an even worse collapse in popularity, there is little to no chance of stopping it now; the Withdrawal Agreement is the only thing that will stop a no deal disaster on 29th March, unless some extension is somehow enacted (and the EU would have to agree; parliament has also opposed this once already), or a revocation of A50 (unlikely, I'd say).......so her strategy IS running down the clock. Frankly, there are worse options than kicking the can down the road a bit more, which is what the WA does. Tragic mess though, and a metaphor for how aimless and rudderless we are as country.

[Banquo]

Ian Dunt on excellent form - http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/02 ... -comes-tum

"There is really no government. It exists only on a formal level. As a functioning entity, it has ceased to exist. Its deal was demolished. Its negotiating mandate, which never had any content anyway, was rejected. It is a wisp of smoke, a lingering smell from somebody dreadful who already left the room.

Now, finally, MPs have to take back control. The fact that this even needs saying, that it did not happen weeks ago, should be a source of eternal shame to this parliament. But even if they did not have the spine then, they must discover it now.

This is where myth-making and fairytales get you: precisely nowhere. We need a concrete, meaningful plan to stave off disaster, with a firm and realistic timetable. That begins with a mechanism - not a principle, a mechanism - for extending Article 50. If they don't secure that soon, we're all going the way of the government"

Its a fairytale in its own right though. For a start, the MPs are utterly divided between Remain and Leave, and subdivisions between them. Within that, there is an utter lack of intellect and leadership ability. To rely on parliament is kind of an admission that we are fckd...ergo, we are. There was a start of a mechanism for extending A50, which in any case needs the EU's consent- so no control there- and this has already been rejected. My big problem is that most of the talking heads and soundbites out of Westminster demonstrate an utter lack of understanding of process in and out of parliament, a lack of understanding of what the WA represents or its content, a lack of understanding of MPs roles as legislators, and a complete lack of brainpower. Idiots everywhere you look, left and right.

[Banquo]

It's frustrating what May's doing but it's getting hard to see how it doesn't work given the MPs keep passing up opportunities to deny no deal and/or take control for parliament

The choice between no deal and May's deal is depressing in the extreme but there’s only one possible choice if MPs let it get that far

Correct. Though May's 'deal' isn't really a deal- it does protect a lot of 'stuff' til dec 2020 and beyond- but really an agreement to try and agree something on trade before that date.

[Which Tyler]

Just come across this: Inside Europe: Ten years of turmoil

Anyone seen it?

[Zhivago]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ncertainty

[Mellsblue]

They’ve been struggling, in various guises, for years. Unfortunately, Brexit is just a convenient excuse for a number of failing and struggling companies at the moment, and, in this case, is one of a number of factors, as set out in the body of the article once you get past the headline.
Ironically, the EU Commision setout the plan for continued flights on Friday.