First All Blacks squad of 2019 is...

[Lizard]

Weber is a good pick. Really pleased to see Josh Ioane there, too. Pretty happy with that lot.

[Banquo]

Crotty?

[Banquo]

Crotty?

Crotty and Scott Barrett have minor injuries that'll keep them sidelined until mid-August.

ah ok, so both out of the SR final? That's a shame.

[morepork]

If Crotty breaks a nail, then SBW is the senior midfielder, himself increasingly prone to follicle injury. Crotty can muster the defence better than SBW, so the first choice 10 may need to step up. Has Laumape snuffed out opposition midfield attacks with Barrett at the helm effectively this year? Ditto Goodhue with Mo’unga? A Conrad Smith sized hole in leadership beckons. Ben From Accounts is another essential level head. Jordie is the reserve wicket keeper at the back I assume?

[Lizard]

Yep. Midfield without Crotty directing traffic is a concern. I’ve got no fuckin’ idea what the answer is but I don’t see SBW, for all his skills, as the answer to that particular question. It’s certainly an opportunity for someone to firmly establish themselves as the heir apparent.

Reading more about the Liam Squire situation, it seems to be either family or mental health related. Either way, it’s a total credit to Liam that he put dealing with those issues first rather than taking the field at less than 100%. I hope he gets another shot and has a long & successful test career.

[morepork]

Interesting point re the boot. The AB version of the infernal box kick from 9?

[morepork]

Shag says Akira is fat and lazy. More or less.

[Doorzetbornandbred]

Shag says Akira is fat and lazy. More or less.

Thankfully for the rest of the world he doesn't appear to be going to the Crusaders any time soon.

[morepork]

You'd have to think they'd be tempted as Reid starts to wane.

[Doorzetbornandbred]

Shag says Akira is fat and lazy. More or less.

Thankfully for the rest of the world he doesn't appear to be going to the Crusaders any time soon.

At 8, long term? Whetu Douglas, or Gareth Evans probably. Or Shan Frizell. Luke Jacobson can also play there, and he's obviously just leap-frogged Ioane. I can also see Shag's successor possibly wanting Papali'i to branch out to 8 as well.

A-Dogg is really frustrating because he started out so well, but faded as the season went on.

Hasn't he played the most minutes in the Super Comp this season or close to it? He's a talent who needs the right people pushing him.

[zer0]

Yeah he's played basically two full Blues campaigns, with an Auckland season sandwiched between them. That he's a bit tired is hardly surprising. Nevertheless, despite his tiredness, performance can hardly be used to overlook him.



Basically for every 10 minutes of attacking rugby played Ioane had 3.03 involvements, and 2.13 for every 10 minutes of defensive rugby played. Savea has had a great season and recorded values of 2.97 involvements per 10 minutes on attack, and 2.89 on defence. Whitelock is included as an guy who had recently always been preferred over Ioane (and to demonstrate my long held belief that he patently isn't a #8), while Vermeulen is included to provide a benchmark as a fantastic test class #8.

Despite his heavy workload over the last two years, Ioane is hardly out of place. Indeed, he's a standard deviation above in carries, metres made, and offensive involvements. He's not far off in terms of breaks, either. He also isn't a deviation below in any category. Though this is a small dataset, and I'm hoping to expand it at some point.

On that, I'll get round to including Jacobson at some point. It's just time consuming estimating the offensive/defensive minutes split.

I think once Hansen the Hutt has departed Ioane's chances of test selection will improve dramatically. And he's not going to find a better forwards coach in NZ than Coventry.

[morepork]

Whitelock should be playing for England with those three clean breaks. Young Surveyor is the most dynamic it would seem.

[zer0]

So, updated version. Includes the original four, as well as the #8 candidates in the current squad and the alternative long term suggestions in this thread.

Have included the high and low standard deviation breaks to make it more understandable. Didn't explain it before, but the ratio at the end is just an indicator of whether the player is more of an attacking or defensive option, based on their involvements per 10 minutes. 1 is a zen 50/50 balance, and scores >1 indicate a more attacking player, and <1 a more defensive player.



What do we get? Ioane and Savea are dominating the offensive side of things; large number of carries, making a tonne of metres, and breaking tackles left, right and centre. Defensively, Whitelock and Douglas are chomping through tackle after tackle, after tackle. With regards to Ioane specifically, he's a standard deviation above in terms of carries, metres made, breaks, and offensive involvements, and within a deviation for the rest. He compares well relative to the undeniable form/best #8 in Savea, with both being a deviation above in four metrics, and below in none. For that reason, I'd say that it indicates work-rate isn't really a plausible reason to overlook Ioane.

Given #8 is an offensive position, where a primary role is to provide go-forward, I'd personally much rather have someone like Ioane or Savea over someone like Whitelock or Douglas. Both of whom seem more suited to the blindside.

In that vein, from these numbers alone, I think we can also identify a few different types of players:

• Ideal #8's, providing good go-forward (Savea, Ioane, Vermeulen, Read)
• Super-subs, with few minutes but high involvements (Frizell)
• Out-of-position flankers, doing a lot of defensive work (Whitelock, Douglas, Jacobson, Evans)

Not quite sure where Ardron would fit purely on these numbers. Largely, I think, because he's being comfortably out-classed in terms of work-rate/involvements by each of the other players with large number of minutes (>1000).

May repeat this for different positions. Namely blindside, where I think Cane would perform well, and have long been a fan of moving him there to accommodate the likes of Todd or (more recently) Savea.

[morepork]

Nice work JAFA. Would be nice to see a repeated measure test of Ioane Vs. Savea, game by game for some discrete attacking data. Metres made maybe would show consistency over the long term. There isn't much to separate the two based on mean alone. Is Savea's weighted by one off bursts relative to Ioane? I'm liking your reasonable assumption of #8 being a go-forward cog in the wheel.

[J Dory]

Yes, thanks Zero, that's some quality analysis.

[Lizard]

No Josh Ioane. Seems shortsighted.

[Lizard]

Ioane will travel and train with the squad anyway, like Savea and Jordie did before they were first capped.

I didn’t realise that, but still it means going into the RWC with a 3rd choice 10 with at most 1 cap (if he gets a run v Tonga). I’m not sure I like that idea.

Have a look at the stats thread in a minute.

[Lizard]

Jeebus. Beaver II starring Aaron Cruden.

It’s not getting a player there that’s the problem. It’s having a player with proper experience to send.

No All Blacks were on debut at RWC2007, RWC2011 or RWC2015. I’m not sure this is a trend we want to reverse. (Again, see stats Fred for more)