COVID19

[Eugene Wrayburn]

One of the more ridiculous ideas around is that the response to this crisis is somehow apolitical and any criticism should wait until we've counted all the dead. What utter bollocks. Examination of what is going wrong is how you stop it from continuing to go wrong. It's the only way you bring pressure on a sitting government. Now if it were the tax rate or something less critical then maybe there would be an argument for it. On the other hand this is about thousands of deaths which could be preventable, so no it shouldn't wait.

Anyway here's some excellent reporting by The Sunday times, a Murdoch newspaper proving that it isn't always about the proprietor trying to tip the scale. https://archive.is/20200418182037/https ... -hq3b9tlgh

[Digby]

When you say "stuff like this" I assume you mean "political spin" and not "deadly epidemics"?

I'd choose to be based in Western Europe for either of those things and quite a lot more besides

So, assuming you don't think unnecessary death is a good thing, you must think that the numbers coming out of South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan etc, despite being reported as several orders of magnitude less than ours, are actually greater than ours?

Merely on balance I'd rather be in Western Europe. Here our problematic neighbours are France, Spain and Ireland, whereas South Korea has...

I'd also take our press over theirs, I'd take our worker rights, I'd take our culture (and yes in large part because it's what I'm used to). If some others react to this one thing and think what I'd like is something more akin to a police state as you'd find in say Singapore then fair enough, I think it's a great place to visit, maybe even work for a couple of years, but it's not beating Europe as being the place I'd choose to be in the longer term

[Which Tyler]

Sorry to hear that.

Thank you.

She was a fairly distant aunt (actually, my step-mother's aunt-in-law... though I saw her most years) and I'm sure others have lost closer relatives, and I wouldn't be surprised if we lose a board member personally.
I was down when I heard the news (and posted) but was more interested in the point about Covid not even being considered as the cause of death in an 87 year old obese diabetic with a mystery, likely-non-bacterial chest infection that involved a new and persistent cough, temperature over 38*, muscle ache and anosmia, when the virus is known to be elsewhere in her nursing home (including a couple of staff members in self-isolation).

Now, I don't know what her death certificate will say, but I got the impression that it wouldn't even record "pneumonia" - I'm more angry, than sad this morning.

[Sandydragon]

RIP Auntie Joy

87 years old, and died of a chest infection that didn't respond to antibiotics.

But no mention of COVID, because whilst it is present in the nursing home, no-one on her floor has symptoms (apart from her, of course, who merely had all the obvious ones + anosmia and a few comorbidies)

Sorry to hear that mate.

[Sandydragon]

One of the more ridiculous ideas around is that the response to this crisis is somehow apolitical and any criticism should wait until we've counted all the dead. What utter bollocks. Examination of what is going wrong is how you stop it from continuing to go wrong. It's the only way you bring pressure on a sitting government. Now if it were the tax rate or something less critical then maybe there would be an argument for it. On the other hand this is about thousands of deaths which could be preventable, so no it shouldn't wait.

Anyway here's some excellent reporting by The Sunday times, a Murdoch newspaper proving that it isn't always about the proprietor trying to tip the scale. https://archive.is/20200418182037/https ... -hq3b9tlgh

You mean as opposed to having a pop at the government purely for political purposes?

I read that piece and it’s absolutely clear that a full review is needed in the aftermath of this. During the crisis, we need to concentrate on not letting this get worse and getting back to normal. Criticising the government is of course fine, but pick a topic that has some meaning, such as the lack of PPE.

[Stom]

I'd choose to be based in Western Europe for either of those things and quite a lot more besides

So, assuming you don't think unnecessary death is a good thing, you must think that the numbers coming out of South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan etc, despite being reported as several orders of magnitude less than ours, are actually greater than ours?

Merely on balance I'd rather be in Western Europe. Here our problematic neighbours are France, Spain and Ireland, whereas South Korea has...

I'd also take our press over theirs, I'd take our worker rights, I'd take our culture (and yes in large part because it's what I'm used to). If some others react to this one thing and think what I'd like is something more akin to a police state as you'd find in say Singapore then fair enough, I think it's a great place to visit, maybe even work for a couple of years, but it's not beating Europe as being the place I'd choose to be in the longer term

For a change, I'd wholeheartedly agree.

While I think many parts of British culture are sick to the core, on balance it's far preferable to the situations in most Asian countries, countries where the populist leader has been in power longer and has had more time to erode checks and balances, and America, which has the same sickness as the UK but 1,000,000,000,000 times worse. Plus guns. And slavery.

[canta_brian]

One of the more ridiculous ideas around is that the response to this crisis is somehow apolitical and any criticism should wait until we've counted all the dead. What utter bollocks. Examination of what is going wrong is how you stop it from continuing to go wrong. It's the only way you bring pressure on a sitting government. Now if it were the tax rate or something less critical then maybe there would be an argument for it. On the other hand this is about thousands of deaths which could be preventable, so no it shouldn't wait.

Totally agree. Those claiming they are being reasonable in saying the government are doing their best are the politicisers in this.

Anyway here's some excellent reporting by The Sunday times, a Murdoch newspaper proving that it isn't always about the proprietor trying to tip the scale. https://archive.is/20200418182037/https ... -hq3b9tlgh

I read that piece as a Murdoch paper worried that this crisis could knock the government off course from its right wing aims. Maybe Johnson might grow a conscience after his “brush with death”. I think Gove is Murdoch’s man and he wants to see where public opinion lies on getting rid of Johnson and putting Gove into power. Gove was a Times columnist and Johnson wrote for the Telegraph. It might be as simple as that?

[Son of Mathonwy]

I'd choose to be based in Western Europe for either of those things and quite a lot more besides

So, assuming you don't think unnecessary death is a good thing, you must think that the numbers coming out of South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan etc, despite being reported as several orders of magnitude less than ours, are actually greater than ours?

Merely on balance I'd rather be in Western Europe. Here our problematic neighbours are France, Spain and Ireland, whereas South Korea has...

I'd also take our press over theirs, I'd take our worker rights, I'd take our culture (and yes in large part because it's what I'm used to). If some others react to this one thing and think what I'd like is something more akin to a police state as you'd find in say Singapore then fair enough, I think it's a great place to visit, maybe even work for a couple of years, but it's not beating Europe as being the place I'd choose to be in the longer term

Okay, no worries, I thought when you said you'd "choose to be based in Western Europe for either of those things", you meant either of those things in isolation. You meant all aspects of Far Eastern life as a package.

[Son of Mathonwy]

One of the more ridiculous ideas around is that the response to this crisis is somehow apolitical and any criticism should wait until we've counted all the dead. What utter bollocks. Examination of what is going wrong is how you stop it from continuing to go wrong. It's the only way you bring pressure on a sitting government. Now if it were the tax rate or something less critical then maybe there would be an argument for it. On the other hand this is about thousands of deaths which could be preventable, so no it shouldn't wait.

Absolutely. Adding in the deaths outside hospitals, we're probably losing 1000 people a day to this disease, largely unnecessarily (if you see how successfully some countries have treated this), so this is a live problem: every day counts. Also, as for the same reason - our ongoing failure to take the most effective action - we are stuck in economically catastrophic lockdown. Every day is a further blow to the economy; there will be all manner of ill effects which will fall hardest on the most vulnerable.

[Sandydragon]

One of the more ridiculous ideas around is that the response to this crisis is somehow apolitical and any criticism should wait until we've counted all the dead. What utter bollocks. Examination of what is going wrong is how you stop it from continuing to go wrong. It's the only way you bring pressure on a sitting government. Now if it were the tax rate or something less critical then maybe there would be an argument for it. On the other hand this is about thousands of deaths which could be preventable, so no it shouldn't wait.

Absolutely. Adding in the deaths outside hospitals, we're probably losing 1000 people a day to this disease, largely unnecessarily (if you see how successfully some countries have treated this), so this is a live problem: every day counts. Also, as for the same reason - our ongoing failure to take the most effective action - we are stuck in economically catastrophic lockdown. Every day is a further blow to the economy; there will be all manner of ill effects which will fall hardest on the most vulnerable.

The reason why we are losing that number people every day is due to decisions take weeks ago. That number will drop as the current lockdown has an effect. We don't have testing in place (that's a fair point to argue) to do anything more nuanced and there is no vaccine. At the moment there is no alternative to the lockdown until the numbers have decreased a lot and then some elements can be relaxed. Knowing how many are dying in care homes won't affect that strategy one jot. Bemoaning the lack of testing kits is valid but do you not think that urgent efforts are being made to try and procure accurate kits? Moaning about lost weeks of inactivity is a fair point, but it doesn't change where we are now and can wait for the inquest.

As for looking after those economically affected by the lockdown, the government had released a vast amount of money to handle that short term. Of course its not perfect, it never is, but perhaps they deserve a little credit for not just letting people sink.

Question the government should be addressing now:

More PPE
A plan to end lockdown.

Anything else is less important. In a criss situation you prioritise, it really is that simple.

[Digby]

More importantly, and to drag the board away from Hannity to inanity - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/a ... d=12326041

For god's sake let them blow off some steam, just how pathetically precious do you need to be to criticise those nurses?

[morepork]

More importantly, and to drag the board away from Hannity to inanity - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/a ... d=12326041

For god's sake let them blow off some steam, just how pathetically precious do you need to be to criticise those nurses?

Very odd storm in a very different tea cup. Why didn't they do a mock up corporate box and mumble that slave song that the chaps at games seem to love so much?

[Digby]

I would be confident some people have done just that, and quite frankly the slaves don't need to be precious about it either

[morepork]

Fair enough. Do it in black face then. That'll show them.

[Son of Mathonwy]

One of the more ridiculous ideas around is that the response to this crisis is somehow apolitical and any criticism should wait until we've counted all the dead. What utter bollocks. Examination of what is going wrong is how you stop it from continuing to go wrong. It's the only way you bring pressure on a sitting government. Now if it were the tax rate or something less critical then maybe there would be an argument for it. On the other hand this is about thousands of deaths which could be preventable, so no it shouldn't wait.

Absolutely. Adding in the deaths outside hospitals, we're probably losing 1000 people a day to this disease, largely unnecessarily (if you see how successfully some countries have treated this), so this is a live problem: every day counts. Also, as for the same reason - our ongoing failure to take the most effective action - we are stuck in economically catastrophic lockdown. Every day is a further blow to the economy; there will be all manner of ill effects which will fall hardest on the most vulnerable.

The reason why we are losing that number people every day is due to decisions take weeks ago. That number will drop as the current lockdown has an effect. We don't have testing in place (that's a fair point to argue) to do anything more nuanced and there is no vaccine. At the moment there is no alternative to the lockdown until the numbers have decreased a lot and then some elements can be relaxed. Knowing how many are dying in care homes won't affect that strategy one jot. Bemoaning the lack of testing kits is valid but do you not think that urgent efforts are being made to try and procure accurate kits? Moaning about lost weeks of inactivity is a fair point, but it doesn't change where we are now and can wait for the inquest.

As for looking after those economically affected by the lockdown, the government had released a vast amount of money to handle that short term. Of course its not perfect, it never is, but perhaps they deserve a little credit for not just letting people sink.

Question the government should be addressing now:

More PPE
A plan to end lockdown.

Anything else is less important. In a criss situation you prioritise, it really is that simple.

Agreed, we are losing that number because of decisions made (or not made) in the last couple of months. The numbers are dramatically lower than they would have been without lockdown and dramatically higher than they would have been had the lockdown come in earlier. Hopefully the daily numbers have passed their peak and will come down soon.

I agree we have to lockdown at the moment - we need to use all weapons (and lockdown is a blunt, but heavy weapon) until the cases come down. But I disagree that there is nothing nuanced we can do at this point. We need to identify cases - by symptoms if no tests are available - and trace contacts. This is what Singapore did (without high tech, just with people), and South Korea, and Taiwan, and others.

The number dying in care (or otherwise untested and out of the hospital system) might add as much as 50% to the reported figures, so I really think that would have to be taken into consideration in any strategy. It's not like it's a marginal item.

I hope the best efforts are being made now to procure PPE and tests. GIven the competence seen in earlier weeks, I doubt that the best people are running the process, but yes, most likely they are working hard on this.

I agree we need more PPE and a plan to end lockdown, but a good plan will include other elements which need to be prioritised (they should have been done from the start, but we are where we are, so they should be started now). So I would say our priorities are:

1) We must not run out of PPE, vital intensive care equipment such as ventilators, medical staff to treat critical patients

2) We need a targeted approach to suppressing the virus, that is:

• i) Locate the infected, by the following means:
  • a) Random testing (when widely available)
    b) Self-diagnosing by symptom and logging via website, phone app, phoneline
    c) Diagnosing by symptom by health visitors, community workers, by phone or door-to-door
  ii) Isolate households where there is an infection
  iii) Trace contacts of the infected and isolate their households
  • a) By asking the infected for their recent movements
    b) By other means such as phone apps etc
  iv) A record of the above is needed so that we know the extent and location of (presumed) immunity in the country; with additions as follows:
  • a) documented past symptoms
    b) antibody testing (when available)

3) We need make adjustments to "business as unusal" eg

• i) The wearing of masks where close contact is unavoidable eg on public transport, crowded offices, face-to-face with the public
  ii) The adjusting of workplaces eg work from home where possible, increase distances between staff where possible

4) We need to be told what the lockdown reduction strategy is eg

• i) When will restrictions be reduced - when cases reduce to a certain approxmate level?
  ii) In what order will restrictions be reduced?

Re 2) we seem to be remarkably uninterested in such a strategy, despite the fact that this method allowed SK and Singapore to suppress the virus without significant economic restrictions, which casts doubt as to how we can do without repeated lockdowns ourselves if we don't adopt it. Staff need to be trained for this, but we have large numbers currently not working, so let's train them now.

This is a quote from Dr Michael Ryan of the WHO:
"I listened to the president of Singapore this morning and he had a conference call with the director general; and the clarity of that in Singapore, that ability not only to isolate cases but to rapidly detect illness in the contacts and remove those contacts should they become sick, was a central part of that. And as he said, they’re using apps now to do that. They’re testing apps, but that they didn’t do it with apps Singapore. They did that with community workers, with public health workers visiting the houses, checking on people, checking their health status every day and saying, “How are you? Have you got a fever? Have you got a cough?” And if a contact is developed a cough or a fever, they were taken immediately for testing.
So yes, we need the information technology tools. They help. They are not the solution. Right now, we don’t have an alternative to what we would’ve considered in the old days. boot-leather epidemiology. Public health practitioners, doctors, nurses, community workers, working with communities to detect cases at community level. And the most likely person to become a case is someone who’s been a significant contact of another case."

[Digby]

Fair enough. Do it in black face then. That'll show them.

That would depend on context, if it's celebratory and for fun it doesn't bother me

[Puja]

Fair enough. Do it in black face then. That'll show them.

That would depend on context, if it's celebratory and for fun it doesn't bother me

Out of interest, are you black?

Puja

[morepork]

I shouldn't have baited with that comment. It's profoundly off topic.

Sorry about that.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

One of the more ridiculous ideas around is that the response to this crisis is somehow apolitical and any criticism should wait until we've counted all the dead. What utter bollocks. Examination of what is going wrong is how you stop it from continuing to go wrong. It's the only way you bring pressure on a sitting government. Now if it were the tax rate or something less critical then maybe there would be an argument for it. On the other hand this is about thousands of deaths which could be preventable, so no it shouldn't wait.

Totally agree. Those claiming they are being reasonable in saying the government are doing their best are the politicisers in this.

Anyway here's some excellent reporting by The Sunday times, a Murdoch newspaper proving that it isn't always about the proprietor trying to tip the scale. https://archive.is/20200418182037/https ... -hq3b9tlgh

I read that piece as a Murdoch paper worried that this crisis could knock the government off course from its right wing aims. Maybe Johnson might grow a conscience after his “brush with death”. I think Gove is Murdoch’s man and he wants to see where public opinion lies on getting rid of Johnson and putting Gove into power. Gove was a Times columnist and Johnson wrote for the Telegraph. It might be as simple as that?

I think that's unnecessarily paranoid. That's an attack on the whole cabinet. No one is going to escape criticism of that sort.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

One of the more ridiculous ideas around is that the response to this crisis is somehow apolitical and any criticism should wait until we've counted all the dead. What utter bollocks. Examination of what is going wrong is how you stop it from continuing to go wrong. It's the only way you bring pressure on a sitting government. Now if it were the tax rate or something less critical then maybe there would be an argument for it. On the other hand this is about thousands of deaths which could be preventable, so no it shouldn't wait.

Anyway here's some excellent reporting by The Sunday times, a Murdoch newspaper proving that it isn't always about the proprietor trying to tip the scale. https://archive.is/20200418182037/https ... -hq3b9tlgh

You mean as opposed to having a pop at the government purely for political purposes?

I read that piece and it’s absolutely clear that a full review is needed in the aftermath of this. During the crisis, we need to concentrate on not letting this get worse and getting back to normal. Criticising the government is of course fine, but pick a topic that has some meaning, such as the lack of PPE.

You seem to be confused between party politics and politics. Criticising the government when they've been unarguably rancidly shit leading to thousands of deaths is what's supposed to happen. Supporting them because they're "our side" is not. One is political and is good because the choice and execution of policy is what makes a nation function if it isn't a dictatorship. The other is cretinous party politics of the worst sort. In the current situation there is literally no basis for supporting the government beyond saying that the decisions were difficult, which some of them were, and that eventually they ordered lockdown (having been dragged kicking and screaming to it).

And let's look at why it matters. The downplaying of the virus (well I've been at hospital where there are coronavirus patients and I've been shaking hands, but perhaps you plebs shouldn't, being the PMs original message) meant that we took action too late. Further downplaying can lead us to coming out of lockdown too early and there being an even more devastating second wave. I can tell you that behind the scenes the government is desperately trying to restart Crown Court trials which cannot be conducted safely. In fact the courts basically only closed down because the CPS withdrew its support.

There are lots of important decisions yet to be made in this pandemic. Important because coming out of lockdown too early could lead to deaths. Important because leaving us in lockdown too long could lead to an epidemic of depression and the crippling of the economy. Examining the process by which wrong decisions were made cannot wait until 18 months time or whatever other time it is over.

[canta_brian]

The 400,000 gowns from turkey have been delayed and won’t arrived today as announced.

See, that’s the issue yet again. Announce in great fanfare the best case and hide from the worst.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... y-11976238

2 things.

1: the media are at last scrutinising this government.

2: I told you so.

This government knows how to spin and absolutely nothing else.

[Son of Mathonwy]

The 400,000 gowns from turkey have been delayed and won’t arrived today as announced.

See, that’s the issue yet again. Announce in great fanfare the best case and hide from the worst.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... y-11976238

2 things.

1: the media are at last scrutinising this government.

2: I told you so.

This government knows how to spin and absolutely nothing else.

I have to agree, this is their only proven area of competence.

[Son of Mathonwy]

We can always count on the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg to hold the government to account:

As we have discussed here before, it will be a long time - perhaps years rather than months - before a reasoned consensus can be reached about which countries took the best approaches to this and which made the most egregious mistakes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52358676

That's tough journalism for you.

[Sandydragon]

We can always count on the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg to hold the government to account:

As we have discussed here before, it will be a long time - perhaps years rather than months - before a reasoned consensus can be reached about which countries took the best approaches to this and which made the most egregious mistakes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52358676

That's tough journalism for you.

Actually that's perfectly reasonable. Given that there will be multiple waves of this virus.

[Sandydragon]

One of the more ridiculous ideas around is that the response to this crisis is somehow apolitical and any criticism should wait until we've counted all the dead. What utter bollocks. Examination of what is going wrong is how you stop it from continuing to go wrong. It's the only way you bring pressure on a sitting government. Now if it were the tax rate or something less critical then maybe there would be an argument for it. On the other hand this is about thousands of deaths which could be preventable, so no it shouldn't wait.

Anyway here's some excellent reporting by The Sunday times, a Murdoch newspaper proving that it isn't always about the proprietor trying to tip the scale. https://archive.is/20200418182037/https ... -hq3b9tlgh

You mean as opposed to having a pop at the government purely for political purposes?

I read that piece and it’s absolutely clear that a full review is needed in the aftermath of this. During the crisis, we need to concentrate on not letting this get worse and getting back to normal. Criticising the government is of course fine, but pick a topic that has some meaning, such as the lack of PPE.

You seem to be confused between party politics and politics. Criticising the government when they've been unarguably rancidly shit leading to thousands of deaths is what's supposed to happen. Supporting them because they're "our side" is not. One is political and is good because the choice and execution of policy is what makes a nation function if it isn't a dictatorship. The other is cretinous party politics of the worst sort. In the current situation there is literally no basis for supporting the government beyond saying that the decisions were difficult, which some of them were, and that eventually they ordered lockdown (having been dragged kicking and screaming to it).

And let's look at why it matters. The downplaying of the virus (well I've been at hospital where there are coronavirus patients and I've been shaking hands, but perhaps you plebs shouldn't, being the PMs original message) meant that we took action too late. Further downplaying can lead us to coming out of lockdown too early and there being an even more devastating second wave. I can tell you that behind the scenes the government is desperately trying to restart Crown Court trials which cannot be conducted safely. In fact the courts basically only closed down because the CPS withdrew its support.

There are lots of important decisions yet to be made in this pandemic. Important because coming out of lockdown too early could lead to deaths. Important because leaving us in lockdown too long could lead to an epidemic of depression and the crippling of the economy. Examining the process by which wrong decisions were made cannot wait until 18 months time or whatever other time it is over.

Patronising Eugene? Surely not.

I'm making the point that criticising the government for stuff they should be doing now (i.e. PPE) is fair game. Banging on about stuff that has happened in the past or stats which don't affect planning isn't helpful and is just time wasting. The aftermath is the time to hit the government for their early incompetence. All that you (actually the media because no one in power gives a toss what you think) achieve is to cause over world officials to spend more time keeping the media happy rather than dealing with issues that should be addressed now.
I'm aware of the courts issue and the requirement to look at video appeals. It's being looked at for feasibility and if possible would allow justice to be carried out whilst maintaining safety. We shall see, but I do not see anyone within Home Office or MOJ looking to reopen physical proceedings before its safe to do so - all the work is looking at safe alternatives.

And the only metric that matters is the ability of the NHS to cope, that's why the stats are presented as they are.

So I'm not confusing anything. I suspect your opinion of the Conservatives is clouding your judgement (not that you are alone in this). I don't support and didn't vote for this government but I'll reserve criticism for their actions to that which is actually relevant and timely.