COVID19

[Digby]

Unless they continue in this mold and we get a vote of no confidence

When's the last time a government's ever been dissolved in such a way? The last one in this part of the world was in Australia in 1960, when the Aussie G-G dissolved the Gough Whitlam government, but that's about it.

Incredibly rare. And for a government with an 80 seat majority almost impossible.

It's all about dreaming big

[Son of Mathonwy]

When's the last time a government's ever been dissolved in such a way? The last one in this part of the world was in Australia in 1960, when the Aussie G-G dissolved the Gough Whitlam government, but that's about it.

Incredibly rare. And for a government with an 80 seat majority almost impossible.

It's all about dreaming big

Lack of popularity isn't going to bring down this government. With that majority, we have them for 4.5 years more no matter what happens in the polls.

But it could bring Boris down. His popularity in the party (and hence his power) is due to his apparent ability to win elections. If he loses that, then what is he for?

[Digby]

Incredibly rare. And for a government with an 80 seat majority almost impossible.

It's all about dreaming big

Lack of popularity isn't going to bring down this government. With that majority, we have them for 4.5 years more no matter what happens in the polls.

But it could bring Boris down. His popularity in the party (and hence his power) is due to his apparent ability to win elections. If he loses that, then what is he for?

For a government they're still actually pretty popular. Though as yet they've a record of zero delivery and the cover of a global pandemic

[Sandydragon]

It's all about dreaming big

Lack of popularity isn't going to bring down this government. With that majority, we have them for 4.5 years more no matter what happens in the polls.

But it could bring Boris down. His popularity in the party (and hence his power) is due to his apparent ability to win elections. If he loses that, then what is he for?

For a government they're still actually pretty popular. Though as yet they've a record of zero delivery and the cover of a global pandemic

The true test will come in 12 months. By then the inquest will have started and the usual government bounce in a crisis will be long gone. Plus we will know where we are with brexit. If Boris has pissed away his political capital then that will be a hard time for him and the government.

[Digby]

Lack of popularity isn't going to bring down this government. With that majority, we have them for 4.5 years more no matter what happens in the polls.

But it could bring Boris down. His popularity in the party (and hence his power) is due to his apparent ability to win elections. If he loses that, then what is he for?

For a government they're still actually pretty popular. Though as yet they've a record of zero delivery and the cover of a global pandemic

The true test will come in 12 months. By then the inquest will have started and the usual government bounce in a crisis will be long gone. Plus we will know where we are with brexit. If Boris has pissed away his political capital then that will be a hard time for him and the government.

Boris other than Brexit (and perhaps even on Brexit) isn't exactly where the power base of his party now is politically. But he has proved a useful front man, as many thought he would, sort of the Englebert Humperdinck of politics

[Sandydragon]

The interesting thing with Brexit is the determination to carry on despite covid. Even many Brexiteers were content to seek a delay, but they have demonstrated themselves to be hard core ultras determined to give a no deal.

There won’t be anywhere to hide although the covid impact will muddy the waters to a significant degree.

[Puja]

Lack of popularity isn't going to bring down this government. With that majority, we have them for 4.5 years more no matter what happens in the polls.

But it could bring Boris down. His popularity in the party (and hence his power) is due to his apparent ability to win elections. If he loses that, then what is he for?

For a government they're still actually pretty popular. Though as yet they've a record of zero delivery and the cover of a global pandemic

The true test will come in 12 months. By then the inquest will have started and the usual government bounce in a crisis will be long gone. Plus we will know where we are with brexit. If Boris has pissed away his political capital then that will be a hard time for him and the government.

I think Covid will make a no-deal Brexit a lot less painful to deliver. We've already suffered the damage to the economy from just-in-time supply chains being disrupted and the damage to international trade has meant that we've started looking closer to home for supplies of things. If they bring it in before those ties to Europe are fully restored, then it won't be so much of a damage to the economy as it will be impairing the recovery, which is a lot easier to sell. And twats like Douglas Carswell will be able to crow, "See, we told you the sky wouldn't fall," and ignore the fact that that's only because it can't fall twice.

Puja

[Galfon]

Emily Maitlis is taking time off after a reprimand, following breach of impartiality guidelines in a Newsnight intro. about DC's shenanigans:

“Dominic Cummings broke the rules – the country can see that and it’s shocked the government cannot.
(more..)

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/ ... gs-remarks.

After her Prince A. humiliation and early Coronavirus debunk on Newsnight (*), she is not one to pussy-foot around; can't win 'em all...

(*)
And the disease is not a great leveller, the consequences of which everyone, rich or poor, suffers the same, this is a myth that needs debunking. Those on the frontline right now; bus drivers, shelf-stackers, nurses, care home workers , hospital staff and shopkeepers are disproportionately the lower paid members of our workforce.

[Donny osmond]

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

[Galfon]

Yes apparently she asked not to do the prog. after the matter was discussed..clarified at bottom of Grauniad article.Seems fair.

[Galfon]

UK now top of the pile, based on xs deaths over Covid period.The outliar approach at the start has indeed proved costly.
https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c25 ... 8ffde71bf0

[Son of Mathonwy]

UK now top of the pile, based on xs deaths over Covid period.The outliar approach at the start has indeed proved costly.
https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c25 ... 8ffde71bf0

Appalling. Though not a surprise the way the figures have been looking.

Wonder if this is another ERM moment for the Tories? (ie the blow from which they never recover, even if they have years till the next election)

[Son of Mathonwy]

Contact tracing has begun today, although it won't be "fully operational" till nearly the end of June.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 36471.html

So we'll have functioning contact tracing:

2-6 weeks after lockdown restrictons were relaxed,

2-3 months after lockdown began, and

3-4 months after the first Covid-19 death in the UK.


I genuinely don't understand how it's taken this long to get an essential part of the pandemic response into place.

[cashead]

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

Boot-sucking noises intensify

[Galfon]

More promising news from a French study that if backed up will help manage response, and contrary to initial fears.

https://www.ft.com/content/bf51fe92-00e ... 7cbcd36367

[paddy no 11]

More promising news from a French study that if backed up will help manage response, and contrary to initial fears.

https://www.ft.com/content/bf51fe92-00e ... 7cbcd36367

Paywall, could you give us the gist of it please?

[Banquo]

More promising news from a French study that if backed up will help manage response, and contrary to initial fears.

https://www.ft.com/content/bf51fe92-00e ... 7cbcd36367

Paywall, could you give us the gist of it please?

Immunity is boosted post infection

[Mellsblue]

More promising news from a French study that if backed up will help manage response, and contrary to initial fears.

https://www.ft.com/content/bf51fe92-00e ... 7cbcd36367

Paywall, could you give us the gist of it please?

Immunity is boosted post infection

and even with a mild infection/symptoms.

[Galfon]

paywall, could you give us the gist of it please?

it's ok from goggle search, but the link hits the wall
key points..
'Tests on French health workers with mild forms of coronavirus show that 98 per cent of them developed antibodies powerful enough to neutralise the virus a month later. '..
'The findings also show that the antibody response grows for a few weeks rather than fading immediately after infection..Immunity seems to be conserved and even increased ..
'..involved 160 health workers who tested positive for infection but did not have serious enough symptoms for admission to hospital. All but one had antibodies against Sars-Cov-2 two weeks after the onset of mild symptoms.  Over the following two to four weeks, the proportion of people with neutralising antibodies — the type associated with protective immunity — rose from 79 per cent to 98 per cent.'

[Stones of granite]

The report is in the Guardian as well, without a paywall.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... antibodies

[paddy no 11]

Thanks

[Stom]

I also discovered something I hadn't realised (through my own lack of interest, I guess)...

Most common colds are a coronavirus. And there is evidence to suggest some of them may have been worse than they currently are when they first "arrived". So there's a chance that this strain could get milder.

I was reading about vaccines, as we're getting to the stage where vaccines either become a necessary part of life or, if not impossible, ridiculously difficult to create. If it were to mutate into the common cold, that would remove the need to find a vaccine.

Which would be wonderful, as the anti-vaxx movement is huge over here. Basically anywhere with inbuilt mistrust of authority, such as former communist countries, will have a problem with this.

[Digby]

I'm pretty sure most common colds aren't coronavirus, though it is a big %. And there are problems with authority in many countries, the US springs to mind and they haven't tended to be associated with a communist past. Strains will tend to become milder because the stronger versions burn through the hosts too quickly, but at a given point in time mutations don't have to work in our favour

[Stones of granite]

I'm pretty sure most common colds aren't coronavirus, though it is a big %. And there are problems with authority in many countries, the US springs to mind and they haven't tended to be associated with a communist past. Strains will tend to become milder because the stronger versions burn through the hosts too quickly, but at a given point in time mutations don't have to work in our favour

Didn't the early 2000s SARS-Covid mutate itself into harmlessness? Or did I just optimistically imagine that happened?

[Digby]

I'm pretty sure most common colds aren't coronavirus, though it is a big %. And there are problems with authority in many countries, the US springs to mind and they haven't tended to be associated with a communist past. Strains will tend to become milder because the stronger versions burn through the hosts too quickly, but at a given point in time mutations don't have to work in our favour

Didn't the early 2000s SARS-Covid mutate itself into harmlessness? Or did I just optimistically imagine that happened?

You know I don't know if it's known why that became less a concern. Maybe weather, it'll magically disappear in April, maybe quarantine deprived it of hosts, maybe the mutation to (or survival of) a less harmful version. There'll be a lot of theories, whether anyone was able to prove one them seems like the sort of thing one should be able to recall, and yet...