I believe 538 had his victory at 45/100 last time which, while they were wrong on their prediction, is very different to 20/100. Plus the poll lead in the swing states for Clinton was 1-2%, which means it only took a small error to flip them - Biden's up by 6-10%.WaspInWales wrote:Most polls had him getting his arse handed to him last time round...Puja wrote:I put a reasonable amount of faith in fivethirtyeight's analysis of the polls and they have it as Biden wins the election 80 times in 100, with there being a relatively decent chance of getting a caning.WaspInWales wrote:You see him getting comprehensively beaten?
I mean, I hope you're right but I can still picture him winning.
I'm hoping the NYT story about his tax returns is spot on and evidence is released in the coming days to support it as that will piss off quite a few voters...especially after Trump insisted he paid millions in taxes instead of $750.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/
I'm still terrified that he'll turn it around, but I'm hopeful that the odds are not in his favour.
Puja
Puja
Presently, in terms of world political news, nothing would make me happier than the sight of Trump being escorted from the White House next month but I'm not gonna start counting chickens just yet.
Edit: interesting link though! Have seen some of their forecasts on Twitter but haven't visited their site. Some interesting metrics. Ta Puja
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He's far from out of it though. I hate the idea of him winning.
Puja