Trump

[paddy no 11]

It's all on Pennsylvania

[Galfon]

Trump says he's won before the votes are counted !...
no wonder Washington's boarded up - he's changing the rules..(but does have a maj. in the Supreme Court.)

[Sandydragon]

Trump says he's won before the votes are counted !...
no wonder Washington's boarded up - he's changing the rules..(but does have a maj. in the Supreme Court.)

This is the nightmare scenario. He gets the court to discuss whether voter fraud is too high with postal votes and they are struck off. Even if the court decides that the rate of fraud is not substantially different to other methods, it will be a rallying cry to the nutters.

I wonder why anyone bothers paying for opinion polls anymore?

[Banquo]

Pollsters lose bigly. Biden should still win, right?

[paddy no 11]

Pollsters lose bigly. Biden should still win, right?

If he's winning postal votes by 3 or 4 to 1 then yes

[Sandydragon]

Pollsters lose bigly. Biden should still win, right?

If he's winning postal votes by 3 or 4 to 1 then yes

Let’s hope that’s true then otherwise this ain’t going to be pretty.

Actually it ain’t going to be pretty regardless. But at least we might get rid of Trump.

[Digby]

Pollsters might not have accounted correctly for the upturn in voting. Normally when people say they don't usually vote they don't vote, here that isn't so consistently the case and Trump on the back of strong work from the GOP has added to the number of people who voted for him in 2016. I say strong work from the GOP as being the GOP there's a decent chance they did this going door to door in a pandemic, so swings and roundabouts.

The USA simply has an awful lot of deplorables, as we're usually a few years behind them that's not great news

[paddy no 11]

That was about a level 5 rattled fro trump in the speech, he just about stopped short of a meltdown

Arizona is a big flip for biden

[Digby]

Cindy McCain (former wife of John) will be very much relieved, even though she dislike's a lot of Joe Biden's politics. She entered into the fray in this election to encourage traditional GOP voters to turn out for Biden, and Arizona is job done on that score

[Stom]

This is the worst possible outcome for people...

Trump winning before the big early votes are counted in Penn and Georgia...Biden probably winning after they're counted... That's going to be a big issue.

I'm very glad I'm not there. Though the world needs a Biden win for sanity.

Hell, it influences Brexit, it influences Hungary, Poland, Belarus...

This is the biggest single election in history.

[Digby]

We always tend to think elections in our times are the biggest

[paddy no 11]

Wisconsin in 30 minutes....its going to be bigly

[Sandydragon]

Wisconsin in 30 minutes....its going to be bigly

BBC showing that Wisconsin is still likely to go red, although only 84% of votes counted. And is Arizona confirmed as blue?

[Sandydragon]

So the Times is showing Arizona as blue despite a good number of votes not yet counted.

[paddy no 11]

AFP (guardian) is saying arizona has been declared

[Sandydragon]

BBC now showing Wisconsin as leaning Blue.

[Zhivago]

I think Trump has this. Certainly very tight. Hopefully I'm wrong, but based on the current results it looks like only 251 for Biden, and looks like he's lost Pennsylvania.

[Sandydragon]

North Carolina and Georgia are seriously close.

[Sandydragon]

I think Trump has this. Certainly very tight. Hopefully I'm wrong, but based on the current results it looks like only 248 for Biden, and looks like he's lost Pennsylvania.

25% of the vote outstanding there so potentially not.

[Zhivago]

I think Trump has this. Certainly very tight. Hopefully I'm wrong, but based on the current results it looks like only 248 for Biden, and looks like he's lost Pennsylvania.

25% of the vote outstanding there so potentially not.

Trump has a lead of about 700,000 votes though

[Zhivago]

North Carolina and Georgia are seriously close.

Think Biden would have to win both of them though, one is not enough.

[Sandydragon]

I think Trump has this. Certainly very tight. Hopefully I'm wrong, but based on the current results it looks like only 248 for Biden, and looks like he's lost Pennsylvania.

25% of the vote outstanding there so potentially not.

Trump has a lead of about 700,000 votes though

It looks daunting, but if the margin of postal votes is as expected then anything is possible. Wisconsin was quite red earlier today and is now leaning blue.

This one aint over yet.

[Sandydragon]

North Carolina and Georgia are seriously close.

Think Biden would have to win both of them though, one is not enough.

Looking at the BBC map- Biden is on 224

Arizona has yet to be declared (on the BBC) so that's 11 EVs.
Nevada has yet to be declared and is 6 votes, although they are a long way off finished.
Wisconsin is 10 EVs and is seriously close, but Biden was behind and is now moving ahead.
Michigan is still leaning to Trump by 250K votes, but still have 20% of the vote to go - they have 16 EVs
Pennsylvania is still leaning to trump but has 25% of the votes to count, that one needs to be closely watched as Trumps 750K majority at the moment is quite sizeable but can be overhauled.

I'm not sure that Georgia and North Carolina are crucial, but if Biden can take one of those then it takes the pressure off having all the other votes needing to go his way. If the margin of a Biden victory is greater than one states contribution of EVs then it will blunt his proposed legal action.

Still hope.

[Which Tyler]

Nevada's looking seriously squiffy - which completely changes the picture.

IIRC Biden needs Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan

I'm expecting 3-5 states having to recount... before going through the courts

[Zhivago]

North Carolina and Georgia are seriously close.

Think Biden would have to win both of them though, one is not enough.

Looking at the BBC map- Biden is on 224

Arizona has yet to be declared (on the BBC) so that's 11 EVs.
Nevada has yet to be declared and is 6 votes, although they are a long way off finished.
Wisconsin is 10 EVs and is seriously close, but Biden was behind and is now moving ahead.
Michigan is still leaning to Trump by 250K votes, but still have 20% of the vote to go - they have 16 EVs
Pennsylvania is still leaning to trump but has 25% of the votes to count, that one needs to be closely watched as Trumps 750K majority at the moment is quite sizeable but can be overhauled.

I'm not sure that Georgia and North Carolina are crucial, but if Biden can take one of those then it takes the pressure off having all the other votes needing to go his way. If the margin of a Biden victory is greater than one states contribution of EVs then it will blunt his proposed legal action.

Still hope.

I have it currently at Biden 251 vs 284 Trump

assuming
Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin go to Biden
Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Alaska go to Trump

Georgia and N.Carolina are 94% counted so unlikely to flip imo.
Pennsylvania is a large Trump lead so looks daunting. But about 1/3 remains to be counted, so it's possible.
Michigan Trump has a 200k lead with less than 20% left, and if that's the only one that flips, Biden won't have enough.
Nevada so far is Biden but by no means settled with only 2/3rds counted and a tiny lead.

the rest look settled.

I think for Biden to win he'll need to flip Pennsylvania