Ah, that makes sense, thanks for the explanation. Mind, they weren't wrong in terms of us still having a functional planet in 50 years time, but obviously the source needed to be considered.paddy no 11 wrote:They abandoned coal for "cleaner" LNG
It is possible that in the short-term, Germany might switch back to coal in a big way - which is why I said the impact would be medium-term and longer. It is of course possible that they'll just stick with coal, and then you'd be right. I guess I'm just naively hoping that the enormous political need to remove dependence on Russia would provide the impetus for a BIG green new deal.paddy no 11 wrote:Look at Schroeder's position in Gazprom now! If you take to the internet there's people telling you who in germany is actually a KGB agent, I don't know but it is where it is. They issued a statement on Sunday evening saying they will go back to coal if it comes to it next winter and the war is still ragingSandydragon wrote:Shortsightedness or corruption?paddy no 11 wrote: Not sure I agree with this, it was the push for green away from Nuclear and fossil fuels that has played germany into the hands of the russians and the 100's of millions they collect every week from Germany/Europe that are funding the war. The short sightedness of green policy and possible nefarious actions of some german politicians arethe real issue (see gerhard schroeder)
I’m not sure I’d go that far but certainly it’s highly questionable how things turned out. That’s the sort of future career that public servants in this country get investigated for (albeit by a fairly toothless watchdog).paddy no 11 wrote:Look at Schroeder's position in Gazprom now! If you take to the internet there's people telling you who in germany is actually a KGB agent, I don't know but it is where it is. They issued a statement on Sunday evening saying they will go back to coal if it comes to it next winter and the war is still ragingSandydragon wrote:Shortsightedness or corruption?paddy no 11 wrote:
Not sure I agree with this, it was the push for green away from Nuclear and fossil fuels that has played germany into the hands of the russians and the 100's of millions they collect every week from Germany/Europe that are funding the war. The short sightedness of green policy and possible nefarious actions of some german politicians arethe real issue (see gerhard schroeder)
It’s becoming clear that all vestiges of restraint are disappearing from Russian activities. A bad situation is about to get worse.paddy no 11 wrote:Not looking good on the Air front for Ukraine. It's going to get much worse from here
Lviv mayor tells Boris: Put Ukraine refugees in oligarchs’ London mansions
"What we need now is for Boris Johnson to start freezing the bank accounts of Russian oligarchs in London and to seize their luxury villas."
Reckon they'll have sold half their properties before this government gets to grip with them.Which Tyler wrote:https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/polit ... ns-314391/
Lviv mayor tells Boris: Put Ukraine refugees in oligarchs’ London mansions
"What we need now is for Boris Johnson to start freezing the bank accounts of Russian oligarchs in London and to seize their luxury villas."
It's a tailback cos they aren't moving forwards. With a blitzkrieg you have keep pushing units into the spearhead, but that rather presumes the spearhead is making inroads. In this case they're just piling up more units. All in a nice orderly row for Bayraktar to target. Also probably excacerbated by desertions no doubt.Galfon wrote:The 40-mile serpentine convoy N. of Kiev - very slow moving: just a delay with supplies for the troops, or are many of the units just dummies as a terror tactic ?
(Seems a bit out of sync. with the softening-up bombardments.)
The problem with a column like that is it only takes one breakdown/running out of fuel/soldiers suddenly having a Mitchell and Webb "are we the baddies" moment for the whole thing to grind to a halt. The fields around are apparently impenetrable mud and so the only way out is through.Galfon wrote:The 40-mile serpentine convoy N. of Kiev - very slow moving: just a delay with supplies for the troops, or are many of the units just dummies as a terror tactic ?
(Seems a bit out of sync. with the softening-up bombardments.)
seems to have caused puzzlement to many - risk factor with Ukr. SAM capabilities & poor early co-ordination with ground forces commented here..Puja wrote:..is there any theory as to why the Air Force has barely come out to play so far?
Puja
Could it be that they've sent the conscripts in first as cannon fodder- sort of rope a dope (bad taste, sorry)- and when the Ukraine forces start to tire and running short of munitions, they send the professionals in?Sandydragon wrote:I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.
The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.
Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.
More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.
I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.
Ukraine has sufficient ground-air defence. Lots of man pads etc. For air-ground attacks Russians are using long range missiles to stay out of harms way. There is definitely something to be said for better air-air from Russia, but Ukraine is a large country, and Russian pilots also don't have many flight hours. The Ukrainians can get up in the air, do their sortie, and get back behind defences before the Russians can get to them.Sandydragon wrote:I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.
The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.
Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.
More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.
I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.
Ukrainians will be planning to take back Kherson. It isn't the first time they've lost it in this war. Kyiv is the most important at the moment, after that is safe, more resources can be brought to the south.Banquo wrote:Could it be that they've sent the conscripts in first as cannon fodder- sort of rope a dope (bad taste, sorry)- and when the Ukraine forces start to tire and running short of munitions, they send the professionals in?Sandydragon wrote:I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.
The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.
Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.
More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.
I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.
I'm surprised the Ukrainians didn't blow the bridge at Kherson too.
I don't see that as being particularly sensible though, as the last thing they want to do is give the Ukranians any confidence. Roll in and crush them utterly and you'll end up with the Russia-Georgia war, where everyone shook their heads and grumbled, but it was inevitable - what could you expect from the might of the Russian superpower against the little minnows.Banquo wrote:Could it be that they've sent the conscripts in first as cannon fodder- sort of rope a dope (bad taste, sorry)- and when the Ukraine forces start to tire and running short of munitions, they send the professionals in?Sandydragon wrote:I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.
The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.
Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.
More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.
I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.
I'm surprised the Ukrainians didn't blow the bridge at Kherson too.
I’d agree with Pujas comments below. Better to win quick than give any impression of weakness.Banquo wrote:Could it be that they've sent the conscripts in first as cannon fodder- sort of rope a dope (bad taste, sorry)- and when the Ukraine forces start to tire and running short of munitions, they send the professionals in?Sandydragon wrote:I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.
The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.
Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.
More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.
I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.
I'm surprised the Ukrainians didn't blow the bridge at Kherson too.
Martial law is not a great prospect but perhaps a sign that the limited protests are making Putin very nervous?Zhivago wrote:Ukraine has sufficient ground-air defence. Lots of man pads etc. For air-ground attacks Russians are using long range missiles to stay out of harms way. There is definitely something to be said for better air-air from Russia, but Ukraine is a large country, and Russian pilots also don't have many flight hours. The Ukrainians can get up in the air, do their sortie, and get back behind defences before the Russians can get to them.Sandydragon wrote:I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.
The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.
Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.
More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.
I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.
It is very notable that the Russians have deceived their own forces to invade in many cases. It is a very strange way to carry out an invasion. Also they are drafting in village boys from far flung parts of Russia. I guess they really expected Ukrainians to just surrender. Probably a consequence of believing their own propaganda too much. Must also be due to bad counsel that Putin is getting, and he has a very skewed picture of the reality.
There is talk that Putin is going to enact martial law soon. That's a pretty scary prospect. But also seems like Putin is in denial, and he sees only escalation as the way out. Escalate to de-escalate. Miscalculated this time, he escalated too much.
A nervous Putin is worrying though - Russians don't follow weak leaders and a strongman who is seen to lose a war to a weaker opponent won't last long. If he regards winning the war as an existential threat to his leadership and it doesn't become winnable, there's no limit to what he might do. The quote of "What's the point of a world if it doesn't have Russia in it?" is alarming enough when you don't take the corollary that Putin believes that he is Russia. Mutually Assured Destruction doesn't weigh heavily if you feel you're already on the verge of destruction anyway.Sandydragon wrote:Martial law is not a great prospect but perhaps a sign that the limited protests are making Putin very nervous?Zhivago wrote: There is talk that Putin is going to enact martial law soon. That's a pretty scary prospect. But also seems like Putin is in denial, and he sees only escalation as the way out. Escalate to de-escalate. Miscalculated this time, he escalated too much.
Maybe he can't hear everything they are telling him - this is 3 days in, 'a la Macron' with his 2 top military chiefs.Zhivago wrote:.. Must also be due to bad counsel that Putin is getting, and he has a very skewed picture of the reality...
Sorry MontyPuja wrote:I don't see that as being particularly sensible though, as the last thing they want to do is give the Ukranians any confidence. Roll in and crush them utterly and you'll end up with the Russia-Georgia war, where everyone shook their heads and grumbled, but it was inevitable - what could you expect from the might of the Russian superpower against the little minnows.Banquo wrote:Could it be that they've sent the conscripts in first as cannon fodder- sort of rope a dope (bad taste, sorry)- and when the Ukraine forces start to tire and running short of munitions, they send the professionals in?Sandydragon wrote:I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.
The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.
Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.
More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.
I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.
I'm surprised the Ukrainians didn't blow the bridge at Kherson too.
Any rope-a-dope means that, for every Russian soldier that dies, ten Ukranians start to believe that this is winnable. Even if they do overpower them in the long run, that's still creating a national story around resisting the Russian invaders and they'll have a new Afghanistan on their hands.
Puja
. Is anything 'sensible' here 
Good point; well madeBanquo wrote:Sorry MontyPuja wrote:I don't see that as being particularly sensible though, as the last thing they want to do is give the Ukranians any confidence. Roll in and crush them utterly and you'll end up with the Russia-Georgia war, where everyone shook their heads and grumbled, but it was inevitable - what could you expect from the might of the Russian superpower against the little minnows.Banquo wrote: Could it be that they've sent the conscripts in first as cannon fodder- sort of rope a dope (bad taste, sorry)- and when the Ukraine forces start to tire and running short of munitions, they send the professionals in?
I'm surprised the Ukrainians didn't blow the bridge at Kherson too.
Any rope-a-dope means that, for every Russian soldier that dies, ten Ukranians start to believe that this is winnable. Even if they do overpower them in the long run, that's still creating a national story around resisting the Russian invaders and they'll have a new Afghanistan on their hands.
Puja
It seems to be conscripts that are being captured.
The rumour is that Putin is unwell. Could explain his urgency around creating a legacy for himself. Also a suggestion that he's on very high dose of steroids that can cause behavioural changes.Galfon wrote:Maybe he can't hear everything they are telling him - this is 3 days in, 'a la Macron' with his 2 top military chiefs.Zhivago wrote:.. Must also be due to bad counsel that Putin is getting, and he has a very skewed picture of the reality...
'Detached' appears to be his preferred stance these days.
Here the Ukrainians have been quite smart. They have really been going after the supply lines etc a lot, both with conventional and guerilla/civilian resistance means. It seems like that along with Russia's own failings have made this a very evenly matched affair.Sandydragon wrote:Martial law is not a great prospect but perhaps a sign that the limited protests are making Putin very nervous?Zhivago wrote:Ukraine has sufficient ground-air defence. Lots of man pads etc. For air-ground attacks Russians are using long range missiles to stay out of harms way. There is definitely something to be said for better air-air from Russia, but Ukraine is a large country, and Russian pilots also don't have many flight hours. The Ukrainians can get up in the air, do their sortie, and get back behind defences before the Russians can get to them.Sandydragon wrote:I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.
The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.
Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.
More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.
I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.
It is very notable that the Russians have deceived their own forces to invade in many cases. It is a very strange way to carry out an invasion. Also they are drafting in village boys from far flung parts of Russia. I guess they really expected Ukrainians to just surrender. Probably a consequence of believing their own propaganda too much. Must also be due to bad counsel that Putin is getting, and he has a very skewed picture of the reality.
There is talk that Putin is going to enact martial law soon. That's a pretty scary prospect. But also seems like Putin is in denial, and he sees only escalation as the way out. Escalate to de-escalate. Miscalculated this time, he escalated too much.
I take your point about Ukraine being a big country but you don’t need to have air superiority over the whole country at the same time. Having air superiority over the forward edge of battle area is sufficient in most cases and leave the long range stuff to unmanned missiles, or escort longer range bombers.
The more I think about it the more it feels that the Russian military was as badly deceived as the Russian population. Sent to the western provinces and Belarus for exercises then rapidly pushed into combat ops. A competent military can repivot if necessary but only if the game panning is realistic. Obviously ot hasn’t been and logistics planning is crucial. Lots of arm chair strategists and indeed poor commanders focus on tactics and equipment butlogistics is key. A competent logs plan wouldn’t let breakdowns etc cause a 40 mile tail back. Main supply routes are very carefully controlled and managed by military police (it’s a key combat capability of MPs in every military I’ve worked with). Modern warfare with armoured and mechanised units demands huge amounts of logistics to function and keeping that supply chain running is more important than tactical genius.