If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[morepork]

What possible use would Boris be on the ground there? He'd just be in the fucking way.

[Puja]

What possible use would Boris be on the ground there? He'd just be in the fucking way.

Worse than that, if he were to manage to get himself killed, even from some random shell rather than a targetted attack, it would be a massive cassus belli. I'd imagine his security have told him to fuck all the way off.

I've no doubt that he genuinely believes his bon mots and bonhomie would be an active boon to the Ukranian people, but every outside observer would agree that they're suffering enough and don't deserve him visiting.

Puja

[Zhivago]

What possible use would Boris be on the ground there? He'd just be in the fucking way.

Worse than that, if he were to manage to get himself killed, even from some random shell rather than a targetted attack, it would be a massive cassus belli. I'd imagine his security have told him to fuck all the way off.

I've no doubt that he genuinely believes his bon mots and bonhomie would be an active boon to the Ukranian people, but every outside observer would agree that they're suffering enough and don't deserve him visiting.

Puja

I actually think that despite the risks, if he were to go there, it would definitely be a greatly symbolic act of solidarity, despite his motivations. Morale is very important and one's true friends reveal themselves when they are there for you in times of crisis and hardship.

[Zhivago]

A 96-year-old prisoner of fascist concentration camps died in Kharkov. Boris Romanchenko survived Buchenwald, Peenemünde, Dora-Mittelbau and Bergen-Belsen, but was killed by a Russian rocket in his apartment during the "denazification operation."


It's a strange sort of denazification that finishes off the surviving enemies of the Nazis.

[morepork]

What possible use would Boris be on the ground there? He'd just be in the fucking way.

Worse than that, if he were to manage to get himself killed, even from some random shell rather than a targetted attack, it would be a massive cassus belli. I'd imagine his security have told him to fuck all the way off.

I've no doubt that he genuinely believes his bon mots and bonhomie would be an active boon to the Ukranian people, but every outside observer would agree that they're suffering enough and don't deserve him visiting.

Puja

I actually think that despite the risks, if he were to go there, it would definitely be a greatly symbolic act of solidarity, despite his motivations. Morale is very important and one's true friends reveal themselves when they are there for you in times of crisis and hardship.

He's a clown. He will make some ridiculous statement that will panic everyone and make things worse.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Worse than that, if he were to manage to get himself killed, even from some random shell rather than a targetted attack, it would be a massive cassus belli. I'd imagine his security have told him to fuck all the way off.

I've no doubt that he genuinely believes his bon mots and bonhomie would be an active boon to the Ukranian people, but every outside observer would agree that they're suffering enough and don't deserve him visiting.

Puja

I actually think that despite the risks, if he were to go there, it would definitely be a greatly symbolic act of solidarity, despite his motivations. Morale is very important and one's true friends reveal themselves when they are there for you in times of crisis and hardship.

He's a clown. He will make some ridiculous statement that will panic everyone and make things worse.

The prick would be there 100% for the photo op. Any benefit to the Ukrainians would be entirely accidental.

And, seriously, what would happen if he got killed? What would our response actually be?? Escalate or encourage Putin by our inaction - neither is good.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Classic bullshit from a master of gobshitery. Best ignored though - like any loudmouth, he's only doing it to get attention.

It is, of course, yet another sign of his intrinsic unseriousness, divisiveness and unfitness for office.

[Zhivago]

I actually think that despite the risks, if he were to go there, it would definitely be a greatly symbolic act of solidarity, despite his motivations. Morale is very important and one's true friends reveal themselves when they are there for you in times of crisis and hardship.

He's a clown. He will make some ridiculous statement that will panic everyone and make things worse.

The prick would be there 100% for the photo op. Any benefit to the Ukrainians would be entirely accidental.

And, seriously, what would happen if he got killed? What would our response actually be?? Escalate or encourage Putin by our inaction - neither is good.

I think Europe should get involved. If you don't stand up to bullies then they just get worse.

[Which Tyler]

The prick would be there 100% for the photo op. Any benefit to the Ukrainians would be entirely accidental.

And, seriously, what would happen if he got killed? What would our response actually be?? Escalate or encourage Putin by our inaction - neither is good.

Basically, he's been out of the spotlight for 5 minutes, and he doesn't like it

[Galfon]

20% of staff furloughed now at Moscow Int. Airport, where 2/5 terminals are closed due to reduced traffic.Difficult apparently to find a bag of sugar anywhere in the city due to panic buying, but I think bog-rolls are ok for now..
MoD update on Russ. progress states 'largely stalled on all fronts' still.VP's senior ranking commanders appear to be targeted with 6 taken out (including 4 generals) already.
He will be getting angrier still now, surely ..

[Sandydragon]

20% of staff furloughed now at Moscow Int. Airport, where 2/5 terminals are closed due to reduced traffic.Difficult apparently to find a bag of sugar anywhere in the city due to panic buying, but I think bog-rolls are ok for now..
MoD update on Russ. progress states 'largely stalled on all fronts' still.VP's senior ranking commanders appear to be targeted with 6 taken out (including 4 generals) already.
He will be getting angrier still now, surely ..

Yes he will be and the use of hypersonic missiles is probably a reflection of that (and the sudden realisation that NATO weapons are causing carnage in his military). I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he used chemical weapons. I suspect that he would prefer that than lose.

[Sandydragon]

What possible use would Boris be on the ground there? He'd just be in the fucking way.

Worse than that, if he were to manage to get himself killed, even from some random shell rather than a targetted attack, it would be a massive cassus belli. I'd imagine his security have told him to fuck all the way off.

I've no doubt that he genuinely believes his bon mots and bonhomie would be an active boon to the Ukranian people, but every outside observer would agree that they're suffering enough and don't deserve him visiting.

Puja

If he were To visit on of the western areas of Ukraine then the risk would be minimal and it would be an act of solidarity. My issue is that it’s Boris and he is more likely to say/ do something idiotic and piss off the Ukrainians.

[Sandydragon]

Read in Ukrainian news that Johnson has asked his secret services whether he could visit Kyiv safely for a face to face meeting with Zelensky. Would be great if so, although I'm sure his motivation would be related to his adoration and desire to imitate his hero Churchill.

It’s absolutely so he can ape Churchill. There is no altruistic bone in his body

[Galfon]

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he used chemical weapons. I suspect that he would prefer that than lose.

You wouldn't put it past him - Biden has used 'backs to the wall' reference, (bit premature maybe) but Mariupol having refused to surrender and stuck in costly guerilla tactics in the centre, he must be itching to clean it out pronto. It's in the way on his Russ.- Donbass-Crimea/Odessa-Moldova highway to hell, and US are warninng of false flag pretexts.

[Sandydragon]

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he used chemical weapons. I suspect that he would prefer that than lose.

You wouldn't put it past him - Biden has used 'backs to the wall' reference, (bit premature maybe) but Mariupol having refused to surrender and stuck in costly guerilla tactics in the centre, he must be itching to clean it out pronto. It's in the way on his Russ.- Donbass-Crimea/Odessa-Moldova highway to hell, and US are warninng of false flag pretexts.

Yeah, lots of false accusations about Ukrainian chemical and bio weapons in the last couple of weeks, it’s following the usual pattern. If he lets rip with sarin as per Syria then the results will be utterly horrific.

[morepork]

Donald Trump, in an effort to stay relevant, weighs in on what he would do to address this crisis:

“Well, what I would do, is I would — we would — we have tremendous military capability and what we can do without planes, to be honest with you, without 44-year-old jets, what we can do is enormous. And we should be doing it and we should be helping them to survive and they’re doing an amazing job.”

“I listen to [Vladimir Putin] constantly using the n word. That’s the n word, and he’s constantly using it: the nuclear word. And we never talk of, we say, ‘Oh, he’s a nuclear power.’ But we’re a greater nuclear power. We have the greatest submarines in the world, most powerful machines ever built. Most powerful, and they got built under me. Most powerful machines ever built, and nobody knows where they are. And you should say, ‘Look, if you mention that word one more time, we’re going to send them over, and we’ll be coasting back and forth up and down your coast.’”

Words cannot express how much of a liability stupid men like him and Boris are. The world is heartily sick and tired of these stupid men being in power.

[Sandydragon]

Donald Trump, in an effort to stay relevant, weighs in on what he would do to address this crisis:

“Well, what I would do, is I would — we would — we have tremendous military capability and what we can do without planes, to be honest with you, without 44-year-old jets, what we can do is enormous. And we should be doing it and we should be helping them to survive and they’re doing an amazing job.”

“I listen to [Vladimir Putin] constantly using the n word. That’s the n word, and he’s constantly using it: the nuclear word. And we never talk of, we say, ‘Oh, he’s a nuclear power.’ But we’re a greater nuclear power. We have the greatest submarines in the world, most powerful machines ever built. Most powerful, and they got built under me. Most powerful machines ever built, and nobody knows where they are. And you should say, ‘Look, if you mention that word one more time, we’re going to send them over, and we’ll be coasting back and forth up and down your coast.’”

Words cannot express how much of a liability stupid men like him and Boris are. The world is heartily sick and tired of these stupid men being in power.

I hope you’re right, but I’m not betting my mortgage on it.

[Sandydragon]

The casualty bit is interesting and it’s not unexpected that Russia would have higher casualties than Ukraine, that’s the nature of attacking you normally carry the cost more until you can break through. Also history shows is that armoured vehicles in attack are more likely to be taken out than those in defensive positions. The point about nato weapons hitting the turret tops is a good one. If the ammunition explodes then it’s a catastrophic kill and no one gets out of that.

I’d also suggest that Russian commanders have a history of being very wasteful of personnel. They have always had large numbers of troops and it can make commanders careless.

Anyone who looked at the projections for nato vs Warsaw Pact in Germany WWIII scenarios can’t have missed the huge casualty projections, even without CBRN weapons. And in particular, urban warfare is hugely costly when a grenade or sniper round from the shadows can kill very easily.

There are reports in the times today about Russian troops either deserting or refusing to obey orders. Given the bullshit they have been fed not surprised. Putting yourself through all that to defend your country is one thing but not because of a paranoid wet dream. Conscript armies just don’t work like that.

[Puja]

The casualty bit is interesting and it’s not unexpected that Russia would have higher casualties than Ukraine, that’s the nature of attacking you normally carry the cost more until you can break through. Also history shows is that armoured vehicles in attack are more likely to be taken out than those in defensive positions. The point about nato weapons hitting the turret tops is a good one. If the ammunition explodes then it’s a catastrophic kill and no one gets out of that.

I’d also suggest that Russian commanders have a history of being very wasteful of personnel. They have always had large numbers of troops and it can make commanders careless.

Anyone who looked at the projections for nato vs Warsaw Pact in Germany WWIII scenarios can’t have missed the huge casualty projections, even without CBRN weapons. And in particular, urban warfare is hugely costly when a grenade or sniper round from the shadows can kill very easily.

There are reports in the times today about Russian troops either deserting or refusing to obey orders. Given the bullshit they have been fed not surprised. Putting yourself through all that to defend your country is one thing but not because of a paranoid wet dream. Conscript armies just don’t work like that.

There's got to be a tipping point where there's enough dissent to become contagious, especially with Ukraine's decapitation strikes on generals and senior officers (of course not aided by US intelligence because they're specifically not getting involved, of course). That's another possible end to the war (and potentially Putin), in the same way that the Kiel mutiny brought an end to WW1 and the Kaiser.

Mind, Russia's armed forces have got to be pretty secure against that with Putin's control over the media and propaganda narrative, combined with the Russian national story of their indomitable armed forces.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

The casualty bit is interesting and it’s not unexpected that Russia would have higher casualties than Ukraine, that’s the nature of attacking you normally carry the cost more until you can break through. Also history shows is that armoured vehicles in attack are more likely to be taken out than those in defensive positions. The point about nato weapons hitting the turret tops is a good one. If the ammunition explodes then it’s a catastrophic kill and no one gets out of that.

I’d also suggest that Russian commanders have a history of being very wasteful of personnel. They have always had large numbers of troops and it can make commanders careless.

Anyone who looked at the projections for nato vs Warsaw Pact in Germany WWIII scenarios can’t have missed the huge casualty projections, even without CBRN weapons. And in particular, urban warfare is hugely costly when a grenade or sniper round from the shadows can kill very easily.

There are reports in the times today about Russian troops either deserting or refusing to obey orders. Given the bullshit they have been fed not surprised. Putting yourself through all that to defend your country is one thing but not because of a paranoid wet dream. Conscript armies just don’t work like that.

There's got to be a tipping point where there's enough dissent to become contagious, especially with Ukraine's decapitation strikes on generals and senior officers (of course not aided by US intelligence because they're specifically not getting involved, of course). That's another possible end to the war (and potentially Putin), in the same way that the Kiel mutiny brought an end to WW1 and the Kaiser.

Mind, Russia's armed forces have got to be pretty secure against that with Putin's control over the media and propaganda narrative, combined with the Russian national story of their indomitable armed forces.

Puja

There will be. I’m wouldn’t guess as to how close the Russian army is to that point but the calling up of reserve formation from elsewhere highlights that those sent in have been rendered combat ineffective.

The propaganda point is interesting as the soldiers are refusing to fight despite the intense propaganda.

[Stom]

I read about a week ago that the Ukrainians are finding dead Russians that were chained up to prevent them from deserting.

Regarding the dead commanders, it doesn't help the Russians that their communications are being constantly jammed, resulting in them resorting to using commercial cellphones, which are getting intercepted and hacked, leading to the Ukrainians picking them off.

On this note, I have to give a real kudos to my colleagues and those working for competitors in keeping both the phone and 4G/5G networks up and running across most of Ukraine. They're doing a really good job and haven't been mentioned (instead we get Musk with his satellites that don't work...).

[Sandydragon]

I read about a week ago that the Ukrainians are finding dead Russians that were chained up to prevent them from deserting.

Regarding the dead commanders, it doesn't help the Russians that their communications are being constantly jammed, resulting in them resorting to using commercial cellphones, which are getting intercepted and hacked, leading to the Ukrainians picking them off.

On this note, I have to give a real kudos to my colleagues and those working for competitors in keeping both the phone and 4G/5G networks up and running across most of Ukraine. They're doing a really good job and haven't been mentioned (instead we get Musk with his satellites that don't work...).

You can always rely on him to sniff out a bandwagon.

[Mellsblue]

NATO statement:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/offi ... 193719.htm


Key points:
- “Any use by Russia of a chemical or biological weapon would be unacceptable and result in severe consequences.”
- Calling out China
- Reiterating Open Door Policy.

[Sandydragon]

NATO statement:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/offi ... 193719.htm


Key points:
- “Any use by Russia of a chemical or biological weapon would be unacceptable and result in severe consequences.”
- Calling out China
- Reiterating Open Door Policy.

Now will Putin believe that? Lets face it, there were red lines in Syria over the use of chemical weapons which were blatantly flouted and then the west did nothing. Putin got away with a lot in Syria in helping Assad and that must be affecting his thinking.

[Mellsblue]

NATO statement:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/offi ... 193719.htm


Key points:
- “Any use by Russia of a chemical or biological weapon would be unacceptable and result in severe consequences.”
- Calling out China
- Reiterating Open Door Policy.

Now will Putin believe that? Lets face it, there were red lines in Syria over the use of chemical weapons which were blatantly flouted and then the west did nothing. Putin got away with a lot in Syria in helping Assad and that must be affecting his thinking.

Iirc, the red line in Syria was Obama only rather than NATO but could very well be wrong. It was also pretty much in isolation after weeks/months of appeasement, in contrast to months of arms deliveries, years of military training and weeks of unprecedented sanctions. That all rests on Putin being of sound mind which he clearly is not.