Sandydragon wrote:The casualty bit is interesting and it’s not unexpected that Russia would have higher casualties than Ukraine, that’s the nature of attacking you normally carry the cost more until you can break through. Also history shows is that armoured vehicles in attack are more likely to be taken out than those in defensive positions. The point about nato weapons hitting the turret tops is a good one. If the ammunition explodes then it’s a catastrophic kill and no one gets out of that.
I’d also suggest that Russian commanders have a history of being very wasteful of personnel. They have always had large numbers of troops and it can make commanders careless.
Anyone who looked at the projections for nato vs Warsaw Pact in Germany WWIII scenarios can’t have missed the huge casualty projections, even without CBRN weapons. And in particular, urban warfare is hugely costly when a grenade or sniper round from the shadows can kill very easily.
There are reports in the times today about Russian troops either deserting or refusing to obey orders. Given the bullshit they have been fed not surprised. Putting yourself through all that to defend your country is one thing but not because of a paranoid wet dream. Conscript armies just don’t work like that.
There's got to be a tipping point where there's enough dissent to become contagious, especially with Ukraine's decapitation strikes on generals and senior officers (of course not aided by US intelligence because they're specifically not getting involved, of course). That's another possible end to the war (and potentially Putin), in the same way that the Kiel mutiny brought an end to WW1 and the Kaiser.
Mind, Russia's armed forces have got to be pretty secure against that with Putin's control over the media and propaganda narrative, combined with the Russian national story of their indomitable armed forces.
Puja
There will be. I’m wouldn’t guess as to how close the Russian army is to that point but the calling up of reserve formation from elsewhere highlights that those sent in have been rendered combat ineffective.
The propaganda point is interesting as the soldiers are refusing to fight despite the intense propaganda.
cashead wrote:I read about a week ago that the Ukrainians are finding dead Russians that were chained up to prevent them from deserting.
Regarding the dead commanders, it doesn't help the Russians that their communications are being constantly jammed, resulting in them resorting to using commercial cellphones, which are getting intercepted and hacked, leading to the Ukrainians picking them off.
On this note, I have to give a real kudos to my colleagues and those working for competitors in keeping both the phone and 4G/5G networks up and running across most of Ukraine. They're doing a really good job and haven't been mentioned (instead we get Musk with his satellites that don't work...).
cashead wrote:I read about a week ago that the Ukrainians are finding dead Russians that were chained up to prevent them from deserting.
Regarding the dead commanders, it doesn't help the Russians that their communications are being constantly jammed, resulting in them resorting to using commercial cellphones, which are getting intercepted and hacked, leading to the Ukrainians picking them off.
On this note, I have to give a real kudos to my colleagues and those working for competitors in keeping both the phone and 4G/5G networks up and running across most of Ukraine. They're doing a really good job and haven't been mentioned (instead we get Musk with his satellites that don't work...).
You can always rely on him to sniff out a bandwagon.
Key points:
- “Any use by Russia of a chemical or biological weapon would be unacceptable and result in severe consequences.”
- Calling out China
- Reiterating Open Door Policy.
Key points:
- “Any use by Russia of a chemical or biological weapon would be unacceptable and result in severe consequences.”
- Calling out China
- Reiterating Open Door Policy.
Now will Putin believe that? Lets face it, there were red lines in Syria over the use of chemical weapons which were blatantly flouted and then the west did nothing. Putin got away with a lot in Syria in helping Assad and that must be affecting his thinking.
Key points:
- “Any use by Russia of a chemical or biological weapon would be unacceptable and result in severe consequences.”
- Calling out China
- Reiterating Open Door Policy.
Now will Putin believe that? Lets face it, there were red lines in Syria over the use of chemical weapons which were blatantly flouted and then the west did nothing. Putin got away with a lot in Syria in helping Assad and that must be affecting his thinking.
Iirc, the red line in Syria was Obama only rather than NATO but could very well be wrong. It was also pretty much in isolation after weeks/months of appeasement, in contrast to months of arms deliveries, years of military training and weeks of unprecedented sanctions. That all rests on Putin being of sound mind which he clearly is not.
Basically air strikes is all they have, they can starve cities like mariupol but will hold onto nothing. Stalemate and settle this or ratchet up from putin?
I'm wondering how much the Russians have in terms of munitions, TBH. They're resorting to using missiles designed for sea targets on buildings, and are dusting off old prototypes and shit.
Last I heard, the Russian demands were that the Russian language be acknowledged as an official language, and some street to be renamed to recognise the USSR. That could just be a desperate negotiator acting on their own volition though. Tankies are also trying to justify the bombing of civilian targets by claiming that malls and shit had artillery nearby - because, you know, a hostile invading force should get to whine about how the country they're invading defends itself, right?
Zelenskyy should, in this case, demand that half the streets in Russia be renamed Putin Sucks A Fuck Boulevard and Moscow to be renamed Loser Town.
I'm a god
How can you kill a god?
Shame on you, sweet Nerevar
We’ve had and seen countless of these examples. We put up an average of 74 Ukrainians a night at my daughters school for a week, and the kids were seriously shell shocked. Sad to see.
Basically air strikes is all they have, they can starve cities like mariupol but will hold onto nothing. Stalemate and settle this or ratchet up from putin?
Putin can't afford stalemate, thats the same as losing. If he feels internal pressure growing (rumours of coup attempts and so on may have some foundation) then he might look to up the ante. Theres not a lot left that he can use conventionally, except to double down on the firepower strategy (which is counter productive in many ways)
cashead wrote:I'm wondering how much the Russians have in terms of munitions, TBH. They're resorting to using missiles designed for sea targets on buildings, and are dusting off old prototypes and shit.
Last I heard, the Russian demands were that the Russian language be acknowledged as an official language, and some street to be renamed to recognise the USSR. That could just be a desperate negotiator acting on their own volition though. Tankies are also trying to justify the bombing of civilian targets by claiming that malls and shit had artillery nearby - because, you know, a hostile invading force should get to whine about how the country they're invading defends itself, right?
Zelenskyy should, in this case, demand that half the streets in Russia be renamed Putin Sucks A Fuck Boulevard and Moscow to be renamed Loser Town.
The Soviet Union has old WWII equipment in deep storage - just in case. Probably a signifiant amount of munitions reserves, but maybe not fuel or modern weaponry.
cashead wrote:I'm wondering how much the Russians have in terms of munitions, TBH. They're resorting to using missiles designed for sea targets on buildings, and are dusting off old prototypes and shit.
Last I heard, the Russian demands were that the Russian language be acknowledged as an official language, and some street to be renamed to recognise the USSR. That could just be a desperate negotiator acting on their own volition though. Tankies are also trying to justify the bombing of civilian targets by claiming that malls and shit had artillery nearby - because, you know, a hostile invading force should get to whine about how the country they're invading defends itself, right?
Zelenskyy should, in this case, demand that half the streets in Russia be renamed Putin Sucks A Fuck Boulevard and Moscow to be renamed Loser Town.
The Soviet Union has old WWII equipment in deep storage - just in case. Probably a signifiant amount of munitions reserves, but maybe not fuel or modern weaponry.
That'd just be cannon fodder to a fleet attacking force armed with modern rockets and weaponry. The only way that could pose a threat to a force like Ukraine's is if the Javelin missiles went straight through without exploding because they were designed to hit something more solid.
cashead wrote:I'm wondering how much the Russians have in terms of munitions, TBH. They're resorting to using missiles designed for sea targets on buildings, and are dusting off old prototypes and shit.
Last I heard, the Russian demands were that the Russian language be acknowledged as an official language, and some street to be renamed to recognise the USSR. That could just be a desperate negotiator acting on their own volition though. Tankies are also trying to justify the bombing of civilian targets by claiming that malls and shit had artillery nearby - because, you know, a hostile invading force should get to whine about how the country they're invading defends itself, right?
Zelenskyy should, in this case, demand that half the streets in Russia be renamed Putin Sucks A Fuck Boulevard and Moscow to be renamed Loser Town.
The Soviet Union has old WWII equipment in deep storage - just in case. Probably a signifiant amount of munitions reserves, but maybe not fuel or modern weaponry.
That'd just be cannon fodder to a fleet attacking force armed with modern rockets and weaponry. The only way that could pose a threat to a force like Ukraine's is if the Javelin missiles went straight through without exploding because they were designed to hit something more solid.
Puja
It would also require that gear to have been properly maintained, and considering how much of an omnishambles the Russian military has been so far, I seriously doubt that this is the case.
I'm a god
How can you kill a god?
Shame on you, sweet Nerevar
cashead wrote:I'm wondering how much the Russians have in terms of munitions, TBH. They're resorting to using missiles designed for sea targets on buildings, and are dusting off old prototypes and shit.
Last I heard, the Russian demands were that the Russian language be acknowledged as an official language, and some street to be renamed to recognise the USSR. That could just be a desperate negotiator acting on their own volition though. Tankies are also trying to justify the bombing of civilian targets by claiming that malls and shit had artillery nearby - because, you know, a hostile invading force should get to whine about how the country they're invading defends itself, right?
Zelenskyy should, in this case, demand that half the streets in Russia be renamed Putin Sucks A Fuck Boulevard and Moscow to be renamed Loser Town.
The Soviet Union has old WWII equipment in deep storage - just in case. Probably a signifiant amount of munitions reserves, but maybe not fuel or modern weaponry.
That'd just be cannon fodder to a fleet attacking force armed with modern rockets and weaponry. The only way that could pose a threat to a force like Ukraine's is if the Javelin missiles went straight through without exploding because they were designed to hit something more solid.
Puja
Totally. If we keep supplying modern weapons to the Ukrainians then it’s a no brainer. But ask yourself how much the Russian high command cares about using its troops as canon fodder?
But it looks like Russian is trying to redefine its objectives during this special military operation. No longer removing Nazis from the whole of the Ukraine but just securing the breakaway republics and reducing Ukraines ability to wage war.
I als saw something yesterday that it was the military that persuaded Putin that the invasion was a good idea. It looks like the Russian dictator is distancing himself from the fallout of this.
Hopefully positive news rather than continued escalation. The question will be whether the Russian army is capable of achieving the more limited objectives it now appears to have set itself. And will international support continue of Ukraine pushes the rebel provinces back?
Sandydragon wrote:
But it looks like Russian is trying to redefine its objectives during this special military operation. No longer removing Nazis from the whole of the Ukraine but just securing the breakaway republics and reducing Ukraines ability to wage war.
..The question will be whether the Russian army is capable of achieving the more limited objectives it now appears to have set itself. And will international support continue of Ukraine pushes the rebel provinces back?
Partition of Ukr à la GDR, with east/south areas bagged off, with VZ accepting neutrality could be sold as an achievement by force for Russ; just can't see that happening given the groundswell of international condemnation.
Sandydragon wrote:
But it looks like Russian is trying to redefine its objectives during this special military operation. No longer removing Nazis from the whole of the Ukraine but just securing the breakaway republics and reducing Ukraines ability to wage war.
..The question will be whether the Russian army is capable of achieving the more limited objectives it now appears to have set itself. And will international support continue of Ukraine pushes the rebel provinces back?
Partition of Ukr à la GDR, with east/south areas bagged off, with VZ accepting neutrality could be sold as an achievement by force for Russ; just can't see that happening given the groundswell of international condemnation.
Depends I suppose if the Ukrainians are happy with that. They are the ones watching their cities being turned into rubble so if they decide its not worth trying to get those separatist areas back then I don't think anyone would blame them.
Sandydragon wrote:
But it looks like Russian is trying to redefine its objectives during this special military operation. No longer removing Nazis from the whole of the Ukraine but just securing the breakaway republics and reducing Ukraines ability to wage war.
..The question will be whether the Russian army is capable of achieving the more limited objectives it now appears to have set itself. And will international support continue of Ukraine pushes the rebel provinces back?
Partition of Ukr à la GDR, with east/south areas bagged off, with VZ accepting neutrality could be sold as an achievement by force for Russ; just can't see that happening given the groundswell of international condemnation.
Depends I suppose if the Ukrainians are happy with that. They are the ones watching their cities being turned into rubble so if they decide its not worth trying to get those separatist areas back then I don't think anyone would blame them.
Depends where the partition happens. If it's just Crimea, Lukhansk and Donetsk, I think most Ukranians would be willing to pay that price as you said. I don't know that's what Putin's aiming for with this proposed plan - I think he'd want a partition across half the country.
Don’t see why the Ukrainians should accept neutrality, when they’ve got an actively hostile neighbour. Why should they be obligated to entertain the whims of a cunt like Putin? They should be demanding full disarmament for the Russians too, and for the words "loser-ass fuck bitch, Slava Ukraini" to be permanently carved onto his forehead, in Russian, Ukrainian, English and all Romantic languages with a rusty nail, and have it broadcast live on RT.
Shit, give it a month, and Russia will not be in any state to make any demands at this rate. Crimea fucked them long term, and the full beans invasion is Putin stubbornly digging himself into a hole deep enough to reach the core of the planet.
I'm a god
How can you kill a god?
Shame on you, sweet Nerevar
"OuR gOaL wAs To LiBeRaTe A pLaCe We AlReAdY mOsTlY CoNtRoLlEd!" Pull the other one, you fucking do-nothing loser. Are you going to try to annex Crimea next?
I'm a god
How can you kill a god?
Shame on you, sweet Nerevar
cashead wrote:Don’t see why the Ukrainians should accept neutrality, when they’ve got an actively hostile neighbour. Why should they be obligated to entertain the whims of a cunt like Putin? They should be demanding full disarmament for the Russians too, and for the words "loser-ass fuck bitch, Slava Ukraini" to be permanently carved onto his forehead, in Russian, Ukrainian, English and all Romantic languages with a rusty nail, and have it broadcast live on RT.
Shit, give it a month, and Russia will not be in any state to make any demands at this rate. Crimea fucked them long term, and the full beans invasion is Putin stubbornly digging himself into a hole deep enough to reach the core of the planet.
Accepting neutrality, which effectively means a significant degradation in military power without Nato equipment and training would leave Ukraine vulnerable to Putins next fantasy. Id give it 5 years max before Putin decided that he needed to denazify the Ukraine again.
