If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Which Tyler]

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/sp ... ussia-base

Abandoned Russian base holds secrets of retreat in Ukraine
When Russian troops fled the Ukrainian town of Balakliia last month, they left behind thousands of documents that detail the inner workings of the Russian war machine.
...
ARTICLE CONTINUES

Also

[Which Tyler]

"Look, we're not gay, we just have a long and glorious tradition of raping each other - so that's alright then"

[Sandydragon]

Well that’s alright then. Not the only culture to practice this but nothing to be proud of.

[Son of Mathonwy]

"Look, we're not gay, we just have a long and glorious tradition of raping each other - so that's alright then"

Can't imagine why the Russian army's been struggling with recruitment.

[Which Tyler]

I don't know how trustworthy this guy is, but people I do trust are retweeting him (dunno why it's being marked as sensitive - it's a graph on Excel!)

[Which Tyler]

Potential Ukrainian gains around Svatove

From the looks of things this morning, it was either a recon. unit, or a push that Russia repelled - or possibly Russians spooking at nothing much.
Early (Russian) reports suggested that Ukraine had reached Nyzhnia Duvanka on the Krasna River and P66 main road (an advance of 12 miles and game-changing importance) have reduced down to attacks on Kuzemivka, Kyslivka and Orlyanske - which were previously under artillery attack.
Of course, Ukraine weren't claiming the advance in the first place, and Russian sources don't seem to have panicked about being outflanked at all - so probably a nothing-burger.


Weather seems to be really closing in now; so we really can't expect any more big advances like we saw in September.
Given Russian issues with basic supplies, and their non-existence; I can't imagine this being a fun time to be a Russian soldier in Ukraine - but equally, Ukraine will likely be very limited in what they can do about it to actually take territory.
Suspicion is that Ukraine will want to establish fire control over the P66 (Svatove to Kreminina) and it's adjacent railway as a realistic goal; and actual manned control over 1-2 villages on that route as an optimistic goal, maybe mopping up a few villages on the P07 (Kupyansk to Svatove). Personally, I'm still impressed they tried to push on past the Zherebets river, and they may still have to retreat back to it (and are pretty close from having been pushed back there currently).
Kherson, of course, is anyone's guess - they might clear right along the Dnipro, they might hold current lines, they might up to the city / Inhulets R, or anything in between. The only thing I don't see happening, is Russia making any significant advances anywhere - so long as Ukraine continues receiving Western aid.

Losses and Wounded figures

Looking again at that post about Russian and Ukrainian losses.
Russia sent 200k men in, in February.
60-70k of them are dead, deserted or captured.
70-80k of them are moderately or severely wounded, meaning a return to service somewhere between 3M and never.
50-60k of them lightly wounded, meaning to return to action measured in weeks.

[Which Tyler]

1 post from today's update in Ukraine; because... well...

[Galfon]

Whodunnit ?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/23 ... ous-leaks/

It's the British again !..
But surely they can better than this..?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... osion.html

[Puja]

Whodunnit ?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/23 ... ous-leaks/

It's the British again !..
But surely they can better than this..?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... osion.html

Surely they can't possibly expect anyone to believe that Liz Truss accomplished something.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Or that Liz Truss would be stupid enough to send such a classified message via a mobile phone rather than via the plethora of secure comms that exists between the UK and US.

Oh, wait………..

[Sandydragon]

Summary of the latest update from Prevail Partners:

Northeast – Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Area of Operations

The Russian Federation Armed Forces (RFAF) remain focused on preventing the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) from making ground towards Troitske, Svatove and the P-66 Main Supply Route (MSR) for Russian forces operating in Luhansk Oblast.

Air, artillery and rocket bombardment have occurred against Ukrainian towns on the Russo-Ukrainian border to the south of Belgorod. On 26 October 2022 RFAF elements conducted a ground assault against the town of Ternova, which was successfully repelled. It is highly likely that the attack was a raid intended to fix UAF units defending the northern border and prevent their redeployment for offensive activity further to the east.

RFAF continue to shell UAF units east of Kupyansk, likely to disrupt forming up points and axis of advance using pre-planned defensive fires by tube and rocket artillery.
According to Russian sources, the UAF are concentrating forces to the north-west of Svatove prior to a renewed effort to capture the town within the next week

East – Donbas Area of Operations (assessed RFAF Operational Main Effort).

RFAF offensive activity remains limited and is predominantly occurring near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, with Avdiivka apparently being prioritised since late October. Russia has made some limited gains and is attacking the villages of Kamyanka and Vesele to the north-east and Vodyane to the south in an attempt to encircle and isolate the UAF defending the town. ​

The RFAF continue to conduct assaults against Bakhmutske, Soledar, Yakovlivka, and Mayorske - currently with little success. It is likely that these forces are sustaining considerable losses as they assault well-fortified Ukrainian positions using Wagner PMC soldiers, some of whom have been recruited from Russian prisons. Persistence and a willingness to take casualties are likely to enable Russian-aligned forces to continue slow and incremental advances in this area – the only area of the front where offensive activity is ongoing.

The Wagner Group has reportedly constructed a defensive obstacle belt known as the ‘Wagner Line’ along the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River to the Russian border. The line predominantly consists of two rows of concrete anti-tank obstacles and an open-topped trench line. Additionally, Russian Oblasts have been building similar defences along their borders with Ukraine, particularly Belgorod. On 20 October President Putin announced a decree imposing a series of alert levels in Russian regions. These include Crimea, Krasnodar, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kursk, and Rostov regions. In these areas, authorities introduced a “medium alert level” that restricts movement and transportation and makes provision for the “temporary resettlement of residents to safe areas,” without providing further specifics about the populations that might need to move.

South - Kherson, Zaporizhia and Black Sea Coast Area of Operations

There have been no reported changes along the Forward Line of Enemy Troops (FLET) in Zaporizhia Oblast, with the exception of a Russian assault on Pavlivka near Vuhledar in the east near the Donetsk Oblast border. The RFAF appear to be pushing hard in this direction, using armour and infantry supported by aircraft and attack helicopters in addition to the usual artillery.

Bombardment activity by the RFAF along the majority of the FLET is ongoing and likely to endure, targeting UAF defensive locations and infrastructure.
The UAF interdiction campaign against Russian logistics and C2 (Command and Control) elements on both sides of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast is ongoing, as is the disruption of pontoon bridges and other crossing points. Civilians, particularly pro-Russian, have continued to use the Russian crossing points to relocate from Kherson to the east bank of the river and beyond.

The RFAF is almost certainly preparing defences in Kherson city. There are a significant proportion of the RFAFs remaining ‘elite’ troops (VDV and Naval Infantry) in Kherson, and the removal of civilians has likely allowed for significant defensive preparation. It is a realistic possibility that the defensive preparation is shaping activity to delay the UAF whilst a more permanent defensive line is established along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. It is a realistic possibility the RFAF intend to subsequently conduct a deliberate fighting withdrawal and destroy remaining infrastructure and river crossings in their wake – a move that would likely allow them to retain their remaining territory in Kherson Oblast in the short to medium term (over winter).

Russian occupation ‘authorities’ in Kherson Oblast announced that Russia will “evacuate” up to 70,000 residents from a 15km band along the east bank of the Dnipro River and temporarily resettle them deep in occupied Kherson Oblast or in other occupied or Russian territories. In late October 2022, there were some unconfirmed reports of internet communications being cut in Kherson by the occupation authorities.

Partisan activity is reported to be ongoing in occupied areas of Ukraine. Partisan attacks are hindering the effectiveness of occupation authorities and will highly likely continue until the areas are liberated.

Strategic/Political

Whilst Russia continues to move small contingents of military personnel (normally in approximately company-sized groupings), they are concurrently shipping Belarusian equipment and ammunition back into Russia for use in Ukraine. The head of the Belarusian KGB, Ivan Tertel, has also made a statement that they are expecting an invasion of Belarus from Poland by NATO, including the United States (US) 101st Airborne Division. The rhetoric of a possible NATO invasion of Belarus has been consistent since February 2022 and is intended for a domestic and Russian audience.

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defence has also reported that the Russian Air Force (VKS) has stationed at least two MiG-31K aircraft at Machulishchy airfield in Belarus, likely armed with ‘Kinzhal’ air-launched hypersonic ballistic missiles. Iran is reportedly preparing to sell additional loitering munitions and possibly ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine. It is also reported that Iranian personnel are training the Russian armed forces in the deployment and use of drones from locations in occupied Crimea, Russia, and Belarus.

On 31 October 2022, the UAF reportedly shot down a Russian cruise missile over the territory of Moldova. Moldovan officials stated that the missile fell in the town of Naslavcea on the border with Ukraine and whilst there was some damage to property, there were no casualties. It is almost certain that this incident was unintentional; however, it does show the risk posed to Ukraine’s immediate neighbours.

Russia has recently increasingly sought to destabilise Moldova. Moldova has lost 30% of its energy imports from Ukraine, as Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure continued throughout October. In addition to this, Russia has announced that it is suspending gas deliveries to Moldova by 50% in November. This action is concurrent to protests against the pro-European Union (EU) government of President Maria Sandu, which have highly likely been inflamed by pro-Russian agitators abroad. In response to these activities, the US launched additional sanctions against individuals who liked to stoke unrest in Moldova including Ilan Shor who is in exile in Israel.

So What?

Russia is highly likely intending to fortify currently held territories in order to defeat Ukrainian counter-attacks and force a stale-mate over winter. These fortifications will run parallel to natural obstacles like the Dnipro in Kherson and the Siverskyi Donets in the Donbas.

Russian attacks into Kharkiv Oblast are unlikely intended to capture territory. It is a realistic possibility that further raids will be conducted to fix UAF and prevent their use in the offensive towards Svatove.

The evacuation of civilians from Kherson city and along the east bank of the Dnipro is likely intended to set conditions for a significant RFAF area defence along the line of the river and into Zaporizhia Oblast. It is highly likely that the Russian occupiers deliberately cut internet connectivity in Kherson to ‘encourage’ residents to evacuate eastwards, control the information environment, and hinder pro-Ukrainian citizens' ability to pass targeting information to the UAF.

The evacuation of civilians across the same bridges that are bringing in RFAF units and defensive stores/equipment is also likely intended to hinder Ukrainian strikes by using them as ‘human shields’ against HIMARS or other precision strikes.

Partisan attacks in occupied areas will likely be forcing the RFAF and Rosgvardia to use valuable resources providing rear-area security, this will decrease the availability for combat at the front – enabling further UAF offensive activity. Partisans are also highly likely to assist the UAF with targeting information to enable precision strikes against key bridges and other militarily significant targets.

The Russian deployment of KiG-31K with probable hypersonic weapons to Belarus is intended as a signal to the West about Russia’s remaining capability. There was no need to position these aircraft in Belarus if they are intended to attack targets in Ukraine – Russia has already proved its hypersonic capability in Ukraine with aircraft remaining over the Russian Federation during launch. Hypersonic missiles are almost certain to be unstoppable by Ukrainian air defences, despite the provision of modern systems by the West.

Russia likely intends to pursue efforts to purchase ballistic missiles and more advanced loitering munitions from Iran. Iran has publicly denied selling these weapons to Russia, but there is clear evidence of ongoing use of Shahed-136, Shahed-131 and Mohajer-6 drones in Ukraine. It is unlikely that the US/West can interdict any arms shipments from Iran to Russia, therefore the deal will likely go ahead. Iranian ballistic missiles may increase the effectiveness of Russian long-range strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure whilst reducing the rate of expenditure of Russia’s more advanced domestic missiles, which are hard and time-consuming to produce under sanctions.

It is highly likely that Russia is conducting a wide spectrum of subversive operations in Moldova. It is likely that the intended effect is not of installing an anti-EU ally, but of forcing additional expense and humanitarian difficulties onto the West, who are likely to feel obligated to prevent the country from destabilising and joining the pro-Russian unrecognised Transnistrian Republic as a bastion against NATO.

What Next?

It is highly likely that the UAF will continue to set conditions for a methodical clearance of Kherson Oblast to the west of the Dnipro. They will continue to target bridges and Russian logistics and C2 nodes, as well as degrade air defences to increase their ability to operate aircraft in support of ground manoeuvre. Russian forces are unlikely to be easy to dislodge and there is a real possibility they will conduct an active/manoeuvre defence back to Kherson and Nova Kakhova where they will seek to conduct a withdrawal which breaks contact once river crossings are destroyed in their wake. It is a realistic possibility that this will occur by the end of 2022.

Russia is likely to continue to drive towards Bakhmut in an attempt to gain a symbolic victory and damage Ukrainian morale before the winter sets in properly and Ukrainian manoeuvre becomes more limited. This will likely remain the main effort for Wagner group soldiers and Donetsk People’s Republic/Luhansk People’s Republic militiamen, which frees up Russian BARS Reservists and newly mobilised troops to establish the defensive line, whilst possibly receiving additional training from combat veterans from the front. The bulk of Russia’s remaining professional units are likely to be used for the fighting withdrawal in Kherson, before they can be redeployed elsewhere over the winter leaving less capable troops to hold the more permanent defensive line.

It remains highly unlikely that Russia will attack Ukraine from Belarus or Transnistria. Russia does not have sufficient combat-capable forces in position, and conditions are less favourable now than they were when the invasion began in February. Movement of troops in and around Belarus, alongside efforts to destabilise Moldova, are likely intended to create additional dilemmas for democratic Western governments and erode their support for Ukraine.

‘Energy Terrorism’ by Russia against Moldova and other European states is set to continue in the medium term and will be used in conjunction with further attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as temperatures drop. It is likely that Russia will acquire additional Iranian-guided weapons, and these will be used to continue strikes against power plants and electrical substations.

[Sandydragon]

Interesting article in the Times today. Apparently Russian marines have formally written to complain about the poor planning of their brigade commander after 300 of them were killed during an attack.

These are allegedly elite troops. If they are publicly complaining like this (rather than just belly aching amongst themselves which every soldier does) then morale is truly rubbish.

[Galfon]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63573387
The wheel turns another notch.
They've probably taken a good fill of pilfer, and will feel easier about trashing the joint later; so brave.

[Sandydragon]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63573387
The wheel turns another notch.
They've probably taken a good fill of pilfer, and will feel easier about trashing the joint later; so brave.

Something very odd about this. Why announce a withdrawal? Withdrawing troops are incredibly vulnerable and whilst holding onto Kherson would have been a challenge this is unusual by the Russians. But it also feels very clunky to be setting a trap (not that Putin et al are known for being subtle).

[Puja]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63573387
The wheel turns another notch.
They've probably taken a good fill of pilfer, and will feel easier about trashing the joint later; so brave.

Something very odd about this. Why announce a withdrawal? Withdrawing troops are incredibly vulnerable and whilst holding onto Kherson would have been a challenge this is unusual by the Russians. But it also feels very clunky to be setting a trap (not that Putin et al are known for being subtle).

It's an attempt to make a withdrawal under the cover of PR. Leaving Kherson at some point is going to happen - they're effectively under siege with Ukrainian guns covering all of their supply routes and eventually they'll be starved of food or munitions. If they try and make a fighting retreat, they'll get blown to smithereens crossing the Dnipro. By making a loud and ostentatious announcement that thye're withdrawing, it's forcing the perception that Ukraine would be firing on soldiers leaving peacefully.

Will Ukraine do it anyway? Don't know. Will Ukraine's western partners baulk at the idea of shelling a "peacefully retreating" enemy? Also don't know. But it's the best cover the Russian army has to try and salvage some of their Kherson force.

Plus announcing a withdrawal will likely slow Ukraine's advance and buy them a week of not getting attacked, which they could really do with.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63573387
The wheel turns another notch.
They've probably taken a good fill of pilfer, and will feel easier about trashing the joint later; so brave.

Something very odd about this. Why announce a withdrawal? Withdrawing troops are incredibly vulnerable and whilst holding onto Kherson would have been a challenge this is unusual by the Russians. But it also feels very clunky to be setting a trap (not that Putin et al are known for being subtle).

It's an attempt to make a withdrawal under the cover of PR. Leaving Kherson at some point is going to happen - they're effectively under siege with Ukrainian guns covering all of their supply routes and eventually they'll be starved of food or munitions. If they try and make a fighting retreat, they'll get blown to smithereens crossing the Dnipro. By making a loud and ostentatious announcement that thye're withdrawing, it's forcing the perception that Ukraine would be firing on soldiers leaving peacefully.

Will Ukraine do it anyway? Don't know. Will Ukraine's western partners baulk at the idea of shelling a "peacefully retreating" enemy? Also don't know. But it's the best cover the Russian army has to try and salvage some of their Kherson force.

Plus announcing a withdrawal will likely slow Ukraine's advance and buy them a week of not getting attacked, which they could really do with.

Puja

Sorry, don't agree there. Ukraine is under no obligation not to fire on retreating Russian troops, as far as I am aware the Russians haven't asked for a cease fire. From a military perspective this makes no sense at all unless:
a. The Russians are trying to draw Ukrainians into a trap, or
b. There is some political work at play here internally in Russia to soften the blow when they are eventually driven out.

It makes sense for the Russians to draw back across the river as they cannot operate effectively with supply lines so badly targeted. But announcing that you are doing that is just odd if that's your only intention.

[Puja]

Something very odd about this. Why announce a withdrawal? Withdrawing troops are incredibly vulnerable and whilst holding onto Kherson would have been a challenge this is unusual by the Russians. But it also feels very clunky to be setting a trap (not that Putin et al are known for being subtle).

It's an attempt to make a withdrawal under the cover of PR. Leaving Kherson at some point is going to happen - they're effectively under siege with Ukrainian guns covering all of their supply routes and eventually they'll be starved of food or munitions. If they try and make a fighting retreat, they'll get blown to smithereens crossing the Dnipro. By making a loud and ostentatious announcement that thye're withdrawing, it's forcing the perception that Ukraine would be firing on soldiers leaving peacefully.

Will Ukraine do it anyway? Don't know. Will Ukraine's western partners baulk at the idea of shelling a "peacefully retreating" enemy? Also don't know. But it's the best cover the Russian army has to try and salvage some of their Kherson force.

Plus announcing a withdrawal will likely slow Ukraine's advance and buy them a week of not getting attacked, which they could really do with.

Puja

Sorry, don't agree there. Ukraine is under no obligation not to fire on retreating Russian troops, as far as I am aware the Russians haven't asked for a cease fire. From a military perspective this makes no sense at all unless:
a. The Russians are trying to draw Ukrainians into a trap, or
b. There is some political work at play here internally in Russia to soften the blow when they are eventually driven out.

It makes sense for the Russians to draw back across the river as they cannot operate effectively with supply lines so badly targeted. But announcing that you are doing that is just odd if that's your only intention.

I wholeheartedly agree that Ukraine is under no obligation not to fire on retreating Russian troops, but it is something that can be spun as "bloodthirsty Nazis massacring peacefully withdrawing patriots who were presenting no threat to them". It is bullshit, but it's potentially politically useful bullshit, especially when the number of useful idiots in the US government is increasing.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

But Russia has some of its best troops committed on the wrong side of the river so if the Ukrainians hit them aggressively that’s major losses to their elite forces, not just throw away conscripts.

They are also admitting that the Ukrainian military is winning.

Either this is playing into the narrative that Russia is losing to nato not the Ukraine or they are trying to make the Ukrainians over confident before doing something.

[Puja]

But Russia has some of its best troops committed on the wrong side of the river so if the Ukrainians hit them aggressively that’s major losses to their elite forces, not just throw away conscripts.

They are also admitting that the Ukrainian military is winning.

Either this is playing into the narrative that Russia is losing to nato not the Ukraine or they are trying to make the Ukrainians over confident before doing something.

I think I'm not being clear - I'm not saying that they've set up this whole situation specifically just to get that PR spin out there. I'm saying that they *do* have some of their best troops committed and Ukraine *is* winning and Russia are soon going to have no choice but to retreat regardless of what they do - this is their attempt to retreat (sorry, "reposition") with as little damage as possible.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

But Russia has some of its best troops committed on the wrong side of the river so if the Ukrainians hit them aggressively that’s major losses to their elite forces, not just throw away conscripts.

They are also admitting that the Ukrainian military is winning.

Either this is playing into the narrative that Russia is losing to nato not the Ukraine or they are trying to make the Ukrainians over confident before doing something.

I think I'm not being clear - I'm not saying that they've set up this whole situation specifically just to get that PR spin out there. I'm saying that they *do* have some of their best troops committed and Ukraine *is* winning and Russia are soon going to have no choice but to retreat regardless of what they do - this is their attempt to retreat (sorry, "reposition") with as little damage as possible.

Puja

From a military perspective it’s still very odd. Unless of course they want to make it seem as odd as possible so the Ukrainians will be more cautious and give them greater opportunity to withdrawn without interference.

[cashead]

they are trying to make the Ukrainians over confident before doing something.

Current Russian tactics:

[Sandydragon]

they are trying to make the Ukrainians over confident before doing something.

Current Russian tactics:

TBF, they have never been known for inventiveness. Even Zhukov who destroyed the Wehrmacht did it via the bludgeon rather than the rapier.

[Sandydragon]

BBC is reporting (citing Russian state news) that all Russian forces have now withdrawn across the river, destroying one of the last remaining bridges in the process.

No doubt the Ukrainian reconnaissance units are taking it very steady, and I also suspect that if this is legit (still got some very big doubts) then there will be plenty of IEDs left behind to deal with.

[Puja]

Okay, I was clearly wrong. Russia aren't attempting to cover their retreat with PR - they've just announced that it's been fully completed and it's a complete success with no casualties, no equipment loss, no panic, no confusion, no forces still left on the wrong side...

No attempts to change any kind of PR tack at all, just continual ThisIsFine.gif. Wild!

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Okay, I was clearly wrong. Russia aren't attempting to cover their retreat with PR - they've just announced that it's been fully completed and it's a complete success with no casualties, no equipment loss, no panic, no confusion, no forces still left on the wrong side...

No attempts to change any kind of PR tack at all, just continual ThisIsFine.gif. Wild!

Puja

Me too as I thought it was a very unsubtle trap. Could still be but I assume that they are trying to make it look orderly to the home audience. Its no small thing to withdraw 40K troops and others from an area thats seeing active military activity across limited bridges. I'm reading the Prevail partners update which is highlighting that if any of the conscripts panic (which must have been a high risk) then the whole thing could have fallen apart.

Maybe making the withdrawal so public made the Ukrainians more cautious and gave the Russians breathing space? The big question, assuming nothing unexpected happens as UKR troops close in and secure the west bank, is whether they try to force a river crossing whilst Russian troops are tired and demoralised and before they can complete whatever defensive fortifications they have in mind.

Alternatively the Ukrainians might decide to shift focus, or just wait for the ground to harden.

EDIT. Just had a thought. Putin is no where to be seen. Assuming that he hasn't had an 'accident', its quite possible that by putting his defence minister (who allegedly is on borrowed time) and a front line commander on the screen to be making the decision, Putin can shield himself from any blowback. Not sure how likely that is but Russian politics is far from clear.