If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Which Tyler]

WTAF!



Full article: https://archive.is/P9krt

[Which Tyler]

[morepork]

Comedy in the middle of a war. Thanks social media.

[Zhivago]

[Zhivago]

[Zhivago]

[Which Tyler]

Well, it looks like shit just got real overnight; and we've gone from a war between Russia and Ukraine, to a war between Russia and Wagner, taking place in both Russia and Ukraine.

WTF is happening out there?

It leaves Ukraine with some interesting choices - do you make hay whilst the Russian factions are distracted? or do you sit back and let them weaken themselves without giving them an excuse to patch things up and get back to trying to kill you?

ETA: OK, it looks like it's actually real, not just staged shouting on Telegram - in which case; surely Ukraine have to make hay. Now. Even if it means throwing in troops a few weeks earlier than intended.
That or I'm being taken for a fool

[Sandydragon]

Well, there’s always the risk that if you buy a dog and make it aggressive it will bite you. Wagner vs Russia is a race to the bottom,
But what an opportunity for the Ukrainians. I’d be ramping up the propaganda and looking hard for troop redeployments I could exploit. I don’t think Wagner can militarily hold out that long, the Russian army has more heavy equipment, but it may need to redeploy a lot of that from Ukraine if the reports from Rostov are correct.

The bugger question is whether this is just Wagner or if there’s wider support for the Chef. Of this is the start of an anti Putin push and some units of the Russian army join Wagner then this is about to get very serious for Putin.

[Zhivago]

Well, there’s always the risk that if you buy a dog and make it aggressive it will bite you. Wagner vs Russia is a race to the bottom,
But what an opportunity for the Ukrainians. I’d be ramping up the propaganda and looking hard for troop redeployments I could exploit. I don’t think Wagner can militarily hold out that long, the Russian army has more heavy equipment, but it may need to redeploy a lot of that from Ukraine if the reports from Rostov are correct.

The bugger question is whether this is just Wagner or if there’s wider support for the Chef. Of this is the start of an anti Putin push and some units of the Russian army join Wagner then this is about to get very serious for Putin.

I think we will see some Russian military units defecting to Prigozhin/Wagner. This has the potential to turn into a proper civil war.

[Galfon]

Even if it is part of a 3-d chess manoeuvre, does appear desparate. If not, quite disruptive for the R. military, where the power struggle is hinged With the Freedom of R. group bubbling away near the border as well, the Operation doesn't appear that special right now.

[Zhivago]

Currently Wagner have Rostov and Voronezh, and are heading to Krasnodar and Volgograd.

[Zhivago]

[Sandydragon]

Well, there’s always the risk that if you buy a dog and make it aggressive it will bite you. Wagner vs Russia is a race to the bottom,
But what an opportunity for the Ukrainians. I’d be ramping up the propaganda and looking hard for troop redeployments I could exploit. I don’t think Wagner can militarily hold out that long, the Russian army has more heavy equipment, but it may need to redeploy a lot of that from Ukraine if the reports from Rostov are correct.

The bugger question is whether this is just Wagner or if there’s wider support for the Chef. Of this is the start of an anti Putin push and some units of the Russian army join Wagner then this is about to get very serious for Putin.

I think we will see some Russian military units defecting to Prigozhin/Wagner. This has the potential to turn into a proper civil war.

Agreed. Which is an outcome that isn’t entirely hopeful given that Progozhin is probably worse than Putin and this is a country with lots of nukes.

Hopefully Ukraine can capitalise and push Russians out and then join NATO.

[Sandydragon]

Even if it is part of a 3-d chess manoeuvre, does appear desparate. If not, quite disruptive for the R. military, where the power struggle is hinged With the Freedom of R. group bubbling away near the border as well, the Operation doesn't appear that special right now.

I can’t see Putin staging this, it’s too dangerous for him.

[Zhivago]

Putin's address to the nation from earlier this morning
http://special.kremlin.ru/events/presid ... ipts/71496

I appeal to the citizens of Russia, to the personnel of the Armed Forces, law enforcement agencies and special services, to the soldiers and commanders who are now fighting in their combat positions, repulsing enemy attacks, doing it heroically - I know, I spoke to the commanders of all directions again last night. I also appeal to those who, by deceit or threats, were dragged into a criminal adventure, pushed onto the path of a serious crime - an armed rebellion.

Russia today is waging a hard fight for its future, repelling the aggression of neo-Nazis and their masters. Virtually the entire military, economic and information machine of the West is directed against us. We are fighting for the life and safety of our people, for our sovereignty and independence. For the right to be and remain Russia - a state with a thousand-year history.

This battle, when the fate of our people is being decided, requires the unification of all forces, unity, consolidation and responsibility. When everything that weakens us must be thrown aside, any strife that our external enemies can and use to undermine us from within.

And therefore, the actions that split our unity are, in fact, apostasy from our people, from our comrades-in-arms, who are now fighting at the front. This is a stab in the back of our country and our people.

It was such a blow that was dealt to Russia in 1917, when the country was waging the First World War. But the victory was stolen from her. Intrigues, squabbles, politicking behind the backs of the army and the people turned into the greatest shock, the destruction of the army and the collapse of the state, the loss of vast territories. As a result, the tragedy of the civil war.

Russians killed Russians, brothers - brothers, and all sorts of political adventurers and foreign forces, who divided the country, tore it apart, took selfish gain.

We won't let this happen again. We will protect both our people and our statehood from any threats. Including - from internal betrayal.

And what we are faced with is precisely a betrayal. Exorbitant ambitions and personal interests led to treason. To betray our country, our people, and the cause for which, side by side with our other units and subunits, the soldiers and commanders of the Wagner group fought and died. The heroes who liberated Soledar and Artyomovsk, the cities and towns of Donbass, fought and gave their lives for Novorossia, for the unity of the Russian world. Their name and glory were also betrayed by those who are trying to organize a rebellion, pushing the country towards anarchy and fratricide. To defeat, in the end, and surrender.

I repeat, any internal turmoil is a deadly threat to our statehood, to us as a nation. This is a blow to Russia, to our people. And our actions to protect the Fatherland from such a threat will be tough. All those who deliberately embarked on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed rebellion, embarked on the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, will answer both before the law and before our people.

The Armed Forces and other government agencies have received the necessary orders, and additional antiterrorist measures are now being introduced in Moscow, the Moscow Region and a number of other regions. Decisive actions will also be taken to stabilize the situation in Rostov-on-Don. It remains difficult; in fact, the work of civil and military authorities is blocked.

As the President of Russia and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, to protect the constitutional order, the lives, security and freedom of citizens.

The one who organized and prepared the military rebellion, who raised arms against his comrades-in-arms, betrayed Russia. And they will answer for it. And I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic, unique mistake, to make the only right choice - to stop participating in criminal acts.

I believe that we will preserve and defend what is dear and sacred to us, and together with our Motherland we will overcome any trials, we will become even stronger.

[Zhivago]

Well, there’s always the risk that if you buy a dog and make it aggressive it will bite you. Wagner vs Russia is a race to the bottom,
But what an opportunity for the Ukrainians. I’d be ramping up the propaganda and looking hard for troop redeployments I could exploit. I don’t think Wagner can militarily hold out that long, the Russian army has more heavy equipment, but it may need to redeploy a lot of that from Ukraine if the reports from Rostov are correct.

The bugger question is whether this is just Wagner or if there’s wider support for the Chef. Of this is the start of an anti Putin push and some units of the Russian army join Wagner then this is about to get very serious for Putin.

I think we will see some Russian military units defecting to Prigozhin/Wagner. This has the potential to turn into a proper civil war.

Agreed. Which is an outcome that isn’t entirely hopeful given that Progozhin is probably worse than Putin and this is a country with lots of nukes.

Hopefully Ukraine can capitalise and push Russians out and then join NATO.

Ideally a civil war breaks out, Russian military pull out of Ukraine to fight the civil war in Russia. Ukraine gets its borders back and immediately joins NATO. One can dream.

[Sandydragon]

If you’re a Russian defending the Ukrainian counter offensive and there’s serious fighting behind you as well, I suspect many will be tempted to deploy out of it very quickly. Especially if Putin feels the need to withdraw his so called elite units to protect Moscow.

However also worth acknowledging the worst case scenario., Putins regime collapses quickly and we have a ruler in Russia with even less morals in charge.

[Zhivago]

Wagner press agency on Telegram:

Pip [Putin] made the wrong choice. So much the worse for him. Soon we will have a new president.

[Sandydragon]

From memory, there’s at least one heavy division kept near Moscow to protect against coups plus several guard/ ceremonial/ militia units in the city itself.

Will they stay loyal and resit Wagner? Can Wagner beat them quickly? Next 48 hours crucial

[Sandydragon]

Prigozhin is publicly telling Russian people that the war in Ukraine is based on a lie. Even if Putin sees this threat off, he will be hugely weakened.

[Puja]

Putin's address to the nation from earlier this morning
http://special.kremlin.ru/events/presid ... ipts/71496

I appeal to the citizens of Russia, to the personnel of the Armed Forces, law enforcement agencies and special services, to the soldiers and commanders who are now fighting in their combat positions, repulsing enemy attacks, doing it heroically - I know, I spoke to the commanders of all directions again last night. I also appeal to those who, by deceit or threats, were dragged into a criminal adventure, pushed onto the path of a serious crime - an armed rebellion.

Russia today is waging a hard fight for its future, repelling the aggression of neo-Nazis and their masters. Virtually the entire military, economic and information machine of the West is directed against us. We are fighting for the life and safety of our people, for our sovereignty and independence. For the right to be and remain Russia - a state with a thousand-year history.

This battle, when the fate of our people is being decided, requires the unification of all forces, unity, consolidation and responsibility. When everything that weakens us must be thrown aside, any strife that our external enemies can and use to undermine us from within.

And therefore, the actions that split our unity are, in fact, apostasy from our people, from our comrades-in-arms, who are now fighting at the front. This is a stab in the back of our country and our people.

It was such a blow that was dealt to Russia in 1917, when the country was waging the First World War. But the victory was stolen from her. Intrigues, squabbles, politicking behind the backs of the army and the people turned into the greatest shock, the destruction of the army and the collapse of the state, the loss of vast territories. As a result, the tragedy of the civil war.

Russians killed Russians, brothers - brothers, and all sorts of political adventurers and foreign forces, who divided the country, tore it apart, took selfish gain.

We won't let this happen again. We will protect both our people and our statehood from any threats. Including - from internal betrayal.

And what we are faced with is precisely a betrayal. Exorbitant ambitions and personal interests led to treason. To betray our country, our people, and the cause for which, side by side with our other units and subunits, the soldiers and commanders of the Wagner group fought and died. The heroes who liberated Soledar and Artyomovsk, the cities and towns of Donbass, fought and gave their lives for Novorossia, for the unity of the Russian world. Their name and glory were also betrayed by those who are trying to organize a rebellion, pushing the country towards anarchy and fratricide. To defeat, in the end, and surrender.

I repeat, any internal turmoil is a deadly threat to our statehood, to us as a nation. This is a blow to Russia, to our people. And our actions to protect the Fatherland from such a threat will be tough. All those who deliberately embarked on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed rebellion, embarked on the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, will answer both before the law and before our people.

The Armed Forces and other government agencies have received the necessary orders, and additional antiterrorist measures are now being introduced in Moscow, the Moscow Region and a number of other regions. Decisive actions will also be taken to stabilize the situation in Rostov-on-Don. It remains difficult; in fact, the work of civil and military authorities is blocked.

As the President of Russia and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, to protect the constitutional order, the lives, security and freedom of citizens.

The one who organized and prepared the military rebellion, who raised arms against his comrades-in-arms, betrayed Russia. And they will answer for it. And I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic, unique mistake, to make the only right choice - to stop participating in criminal acts.

I believe that we will preserve and defend what is dear and sacred to us, and together with our Motherland we will overcome any trials, we will become even stronger.

Is Putin actually choosing to identify himself with the Tsar? I mean, it's not inaccurate, but it feels kinda on the nose! I had thought the November Revolution was still venerated in Russia and the Tsar was seen as the bad guy to the average Russian - was I wrong?

Puja

[Zhivago]

Wagner press agency:

The trigger of the Civil War pulled by Pipa [Putin]. Instead of sending one or two degenerates into retirement, he gave the order to neutralize the most combat-ready unit in Russia. The life of one or two traitors was placed above 25,000 heroes. Who is evil in this conflict is already obvious. The victory will be for PMC "Wagner".

[Zhivago]

Is Putin actually choosing to identify himself with the Tsar? I mean, it's not inaccurate, but it feels kinda on the nose! I had thought the November Revolution was still venerated in Russia and the Tsar was seen as the bad guy to the average Russian - was I wrong?

Puja

Putin isn't a communist. He is an old school Russian Imperialist, and he absolutely identifies with the tsars, most likely Peter the Great in his mind. Hence his desire to rebuild the Russian Empire.

I mean have you seen how the oligarchs live? They all love that gaudy golden Rococo stuff.

[Sandydragon]

Is Putin actually choosing to identify himself with the Tsar? I mean, it's not inaccurate, but it feels kinda on the nose! I had thought the November Revolution was still venerated in Russia and the Tsar was seen as the bad guy to the average Russian - was I wrong?

Puja

Putin isn't a communist. He is an old school Russian Imperialist, and he absolutely identifies with the tsars, most likely Peter the Great in his mind. Hence his desire to rebuild the Russian Empire.

I mean have you seen how the oligarchs live? They all love that gaudy golden Rococo stuff.

Fair play, the old Soviet leaders liked their creature comforts as well, but there’s more money in Russia today to siphon off.

Some people look at the Soviet unions foreign policy as if it were unique. But it’s been the same Russian policy for centuries. Conquer or control the near abroad and ensure Russia is respected in the wider world.

[Sandydragon]

Is this a coup? What is Prigozhin doing in Russia? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66006880

Interesting and some useful context. Wagner probably doesn’t have enough strength to take Moscow unless a lot of other people and more importantly troops join him.