Eugene Wrayburn wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2024 12:22 am
As regards the UK our institutions are stronger than theirs (because they aren't entirely partisan) and our tv news not straight-up lying.Thankfully the sort of gerrymandering and voter suppression they have there is pretty much impossible here. Our media is a lot less deferential which helps as well. I'm confident we won't suffer the same fate as america.
I agree we are in a better place than the US but I'm not so confident that we won't suffer a similar fate.
Our institutions are stronger in some ways, weaker in others. Our TV news is incomparably better than in the US but our newspapers are appalling. We have no constitution, no rights which are truly protected. Anything could be changed by Parliament. A prime minister with a loyal majority has dictatorial powers for 5 years, unlike a president who usually faces meaningful opposition in Congress. The few checks that exist could be removed. UK supreme court? Reduce its powers or disband it. European Convention on Human Rights? Leave it. Voters rights? Reduce them for certain groups. Ministerial code? We already know that's a joke. Etc etc
Also re the same fate - if the Tories make a deal with Farage he could easily win the next election.
Eugene Wrayburn wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2024 12:22 am
It's basically the mask slipping a little bit more than usual. America ran a full on Apartheid regime until the mid 60s. Authoritarianism is absolutely in their nature - listen to Rachel Maddow's Ultra podcast for historical analogues. The majority of the country has always believed might is right. We give their nationalism the fancy name "American Exceptionalism" but it's exactly thesame nationalism wesee elsewhere, except that even apparently sane politicians like Harris firmly believe in it.
I'm resigned to whatever is going to happen. America has a chance to deny its authoritatian tendency rule of the federal government once again. But it's busy running most of the states and SCOTUS so it's only a matter of time before it bubbles up again. Next time probably with someone brighter and slicker and not suffering from dementia. Harris would be better for the world and better for America. But NATO would clearly kick the shit out of Russia with or without the Yanks. He wants a trade war? Well fine. Let the americans start suffering the pain of their choices. The isolationism will hurt them more than the rest of us - though I accept it will be a fucking pain in the arse all round. Maybe some of their voters will pull their heads out of their asses, maybe they won't.
As regards the UK our institutions are stronger than theirs (because they aren't entirely partisan) and our tv news not straight-up lying.Thankfully the sort of gerrymandering and voter suppression they have there is pretty much impossible here. Our media is a lot less deferential which helps as well. I'm confident we won't suffer the same fate as america.
The NATO minus the US vs Russia discussion is an interesting one. The sad reality is that without a lot of the US supporting technology, it wouldn't be a fun event going toe to toe with a much larger military that was being supported by other regimes such as North Korea, Iran and China. The rest of Natos capabilities are (mostly) technologically superior to Russia which provides an advantage, but the investment in the nuts and bolts of a good military isn't universal. UK and France struggled with certain aspects of the operations in Libya until the US lent logistic support.
Politically too, if the US decided not to get involved and ignore its treaty commitments, there is no guarantee that other members wouldnt do the same. Greece and Turkey wouldnt work together at all. Poland would be beligerent, Germany might be, not so sure about other key members. Plus there is no clear command structure that works from top to bottom without American personnel. That latter point is fixable, but its not something you would want to do overnight if the US suddenly decided to step away mid-crisis point.
This kind of puts the discussions over a Euro army into focus.
If it's a full on world war with the Chinese weighing in properly then perhaps all bets are off. But assuming something like the Russian force as is decided to pick off an EU state they'd get shat on from a very great height. They're currently in a draw with Ukraine. If they invaded any EU state I am absolutely certain the others all weigh in and we do too. Turkey can decide whether they want to be a Russian satellite or stay with the free world. I'm pretty sure the American arms manufacturers will insist on continuing to supply us. Europe doesn't need aid in the way Ukraine does and has its own arms manufacturers. I am unusually confident that even with Trump in charge we're grand.
I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed person.
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Oct 24, 2024 4:24 pm
Watch this if you missed it last night on BBC2 - Trump: The Criminal Conspiracy Case.
Oh God, I wanted Trump to lose before, but after seeing that it's visceral. If he wins, he and that bunch of, well traitors is a pretty accurate description, will no doubt slip the legal process and avoid the jail time they richly deserve. On top of destroying democracy, it's the lives of normal people they casually destroy that really gets me.
Towards the end we see Pence telling a glum Fox News reporter how Trump and his legal guy outright asked him to overturn the votes from the states. How anybody who's seen that can believe Trump wasn't arranging a coup I don't know.
I just dont think they (the voters) are listening. The counter argument is that the Democrats are weaponising the justice system to go after Trump, so that kind of balances everythign out. Thats utter nonsense to any vaguely intelligent person but its somehow not an uncommon view.
I hope Harris can focus on the economy in the next week or so. That seems to be the area she is most afraid of discussion on and where swing voters might feel Trump is stronger.
I agree. Of course, sadly, I don't expect this documentary to have any impact on a Trump supporter. They believe everything he says and/or think if loyal Republicans change the vote counts then it's all for the best anyway. Who needs democracy if you like the dictator? For the undecided (how there is such a group I don't know...) I suppose they hear Trump using the Joseph Goebbels technique of accusing the enemy of what he's doing (ie stealing the election) and don't know who to believe.
I am too ignorant of the US electorate to know what Harris should be concentrating on at this point. But whatever she does she needs to open that gap again. They're neck and neck. Unbelievably.
It’s also worth considering that political insults are so common place now that many people just switch off. Voices n the left have been calling anyone right of centre a fascist for years. It’s lost its meaning. Now when someone genuinely authoritarian enters US politics, why should the average voter take that warning seriously?
I just dont think they (the voters) are listening. The counter argument is that the Democrats are weaponising the justice system to go after Trump, so that kind of balances everythign out. Thats utter nonsense to any vaguely intelligent person but its somehow not an uncommon view.
I hope Harris can focus on the economy in the next week or so. That seems to be the area she is most afraid of discussion on and where swing voters might feel Trump is stronger.
I agree. Of course, sadly, I don't expect this documentary to have any impact on a Trump supporter. They believe everything he says and/or think if loyal Republicans change the vote counts then it's all for the best anyway. Who needs democracy if you like the dictator? For the undecided (how there is such a group I don't know...) I suppose they hear Trump using the Joseph Goebbels technique of accusing the enemy of what he's doing (ie stealing the election) and don't know who to believe.
I am too ignorant of the US electorate to know what Harris should be concentrating on at this point. But whatever she does she needs to open that gap again. They're neck and neck. Unbelievably.
It’s also worth considering that political insults are so common place now that many people just switch off. Voices n the left have been calling anyone right of centre a fascist for years. It’s lost its meaning. Now when someone genuinely authoritarian enters US politics, why should the average voter take that warning seriously?
We've been calling the fascists fascists. Trump, Bibi, Modi, Victor, et al., and guess what...
Don't rewrite history. We were right to call them fascists 8 bloody years ago. Just people didn't pay attention because "you can't call names"... well, it was a warning, it went unheeded, and we have fascist governments across the world.
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2024 10:27 am
I agree. Of course, sadly, I don't expect this documentary to have any impact on a Trump supporter. They believe everything he says and/or think if loyal Republicans change the vote counts then it's all for the best anyway. Who needs democracy if you like the dictator? For the undecided (how there is such a group I don't know...) I suppose they hear Trump using the Joseph Goebbels technique of accusing the enemy of what he's doing (ie stealing the election) and don't know who to believe.
I am too ignorant of the US electorate to know what Harris should be concentrating on at this point. But whatever she does she needs to open that gap again. They're neck and neck. Unbelievably.
It’s also worth considering that political insults are so common place now that many people just switch off. Voices n the left have been calling anyone right of centre a fascist for years. It’s lost its meaning. Now when someone genuinely authoritarian enters US politics, why should the average voter take that warning seriously?
We've been calling the fascists fascists. Trump, Bibi, Modi, Victor, et al., and guess what...
Don't rewrite history. We were right to call them fascists 8 bloody years ago. Just people didn't pay attention because "you can't call names"... well, it was a warning, it went unheeded, and we have fascist governments across the world.
Sandy is talking about those who aren’t fascists being called fascists so when your actual fascists are called fascists it holds less water. It’s a bit like the #stopthecoup when Boris prorogued Parliament in a move that wasn’t remotely a coup.
#stopthehyperbole
It’s also worth considering that political insults are so common place now that many people just switch off. Voices n the left have been calling anyone right of centre a fascist for years. It’s lost its meaning. Now when someone genuinely authoritarian enters US politics, why should the average voter take that warning seriously?
We've been calling the fascists fascists. Trump, Bibi, Modi, Victor, et al., and guess what...
Don't rewrite history. We were right to call them fascists 8 bloody years ago. Just people didn't pay attention because "you can't call names"... well, it was a warning, it went unheeded, and we have fascist governments across the world.
Sandy is talking about those who aren’t fascists being called fascists so when your actual fascists are called fascists it holds less water. It’s a bit like the #stopthecoup when Boris prorogued Parliament in a move that wasn’t remotely a coup.
#stopthehyperbole
I get it.
Just that the allegations of "name calling" by the far right against anyone calling them what they are, or calling their words what they are gets a bit much.
Only one side is allowed to speak up, the side that shouts loudest...
Eugene Wrayburn wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2024 12:22 am
It's basically the mask slipping a little bit more than usual. America ran a full on Apartheid regime until the mid 60s. Authoritarianism is absolutely in their nature - listen to Rachel Maddow's Ultra podcast for historical analogues. The majority of the country has always believed might is right. We give their nationalism the fancy name "American Exceptionalism" but it's exactly thesame nationalism wesee elsewhere, except that even apparently sane politicians like Harris firmly believe in it.
I'm resigned to whatever is going to happen. America has a chance to deny its authoritatian tendency rule of the federal government once again. But it's busy running most of the states and SCOTUS so it's only a matter of time before it bubbles up again. Next time probably with someone brighter and slicker and not suffering from dementia. Harris would be better for the world and better for America. But NATO would clearly kick the shit out of Russia with or without the Yanks. He wants a trade war? Well fine. Let the americans start suffering the pain of their choices. The isolationism will hurt them more than the rest of us - though I accept it will be a fucking pain in the arse all round. Maybe some of their voters will pull their heads out of their asses, maybe they won't.
As regards the UK our institutions are stronger than theirs (because they aren't entirely partisan) and our tv news not straight-up lying.Thankfully the sort of gerrymandering and voter suppression they have there is pretty much impossible here. Our media is a lot less deferential which helps as well. I'm confident we won't suffer the same fate as america.
The NATO minus the US vs Russia discussion is an interesting one. The sad reality is that without a lot of the US supporting technology, it wouldn't be a fun event going toe to toe with a much larger military that was being supported by other regimes such as North Korea, Iran and China. The rest of Natos capabilities are (mostly) technologically superior to Russia which provides an advantage, but the investment in the nuts and bolts of a good military isn't universal. UK and France struggled with certain aspects of the operations in Libya until the US lent logistic support.
Politically too, if the US decided not to get involved and ignore its treaty commitments, there is no guarantee that other members wouldnt do the same. Greece and Turkey wouldnt work together at all. Poland would be beligerent, Germany might be, not so sure about other key members. Plus there is no clear command structure that works from top to bottom without American personnel. That latter point is fixable, but its not something you would want to do overnight if the US suddenly decided to step away mid-crisis point.
This kind of puts the discussions over a Euro army into focus.
If it's a full on world war with the Chinese weighing in properly then perhaps all bets are off. But assuming something like the Russian force as is decided to pick off an EU state they'd get shat on from a very great height. They're currently in a draw with Ukraine. If they invaded any EU state I am absolutely certain the others all weigh in and we do too. Turkey can decide whether they want to be a Russian satellite or stay with the free world. I'm pretty sure the American arms manufacturers will insist on continuing to supply us. Europe doesn't need aid in the way Ukraine does and has its own arms manufacturers. I am unusually confident that even with Trump in charge we're grand.
But what if 1 of france/Germany/Britain flips and then you have 1 of the big 3 lined up with Hungary, Serbia and Russia. The czechs and Slovaks are keen on right wing extremism also. Its not hard to see Europe at war with itself........again
Zhivago wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 7:07 pm
Anyone else got a feeling of foreboding as we approach Nov 5th?
Some music for this emotion:
Yeah, getting a bit more worried the more I think about it.
One thing though. IF Harris makes it to the Whitehouse (after a monstrous couple of months) there will be a hell of a lot of new insurrectionists to put on trial after the 2020 batch have been locked up.
Given how awful Harris is on Gaza I can totally understand how Americans, especially Muslims, could choose to abstain*. But abstaining would be a mistake, no matter how gutting it would be to give genocide supporter Harris some kind of approval.
The argument I'd make is that abstaining is like giving both Harris and Trump a vote (the effect is the same). And what kind of a fool would give Trump a vote? So a vote for Harris is the least bad option. Just hold your nose.
* but not vote for Trump, that's insane, he'd be at least as bad on Gaza and worse on everything else.
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2024 12:41 pm
Given how awful Harris is on Gaza I can totally understand how Americans, especially Muslims, could choose to abstain*. But abstaining would be a mistake, no matter how gutting it would be to give genocide supporter Harris some kind of approval.
The argument I'd make is that abstaining is like giving both Harris and Trump a vote (the effect is the same). And what kind of a fool would give Trump a vote? So a vote for Harris is the least bad option. Just hold your nose.
* but not vote for Trump, that's insane, he'd be at least as bad on Gaza and worse on everything else.
I absolutely understand not wanting to reward Harris for her continual outreach to Republicans and abandonment of her base (on the basis that, "You have to vote for me or he wins!") - it's the same complaint I had about Starmer in our election. However, the difference is that Starmer was guaranteed a win and so it was safe to protest vote Green - allow Trump in and you're going from Harris's "We might occasionally look sternly at Israel and it is theoretically possible that there might be a line that we draw, somewhere" level of genocide approval to Trump's "Bibi is my mate and can do no wrong, plus I reckon there's money to be made in beachfront property in Gaza if we can make the people who own it disappear" level of genocide approval.
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2024 12:41 pm
Given how awful Harris is on Gaza I can totally understand how Americans, especially Muslims, could choose to abstain*. But abstaining would be a mistake, no matter how gutting it would be to give genocide supporter Harris some kind of approval.
The argument I'd make is that abstaining is like giving both Harris and Trump a vote (the effect is the same). And what kind of a fool would give Trump a vote? So a vote for Harris is the least bad option. Just hold your nose.
* but not vote for Trump, that's insane, he'd be at least as bad on Gaza and worse on everything else.
I absolutely understand not wanting to reward Harris for her continual outreach to Republicans and abandonment of her base (on the basis that, "You have to vote for me or he wins!") - it's the same complaint I had about Starmer in our election. However, the difference is that Starmer was guaranteed a win and so it was safe to protest vote Green - allow Trump in and you're going from Harris's "We might occasionally look sternly at Israel and it is theoretically possible that there might be a line that we draw, somewhere" level of genocide approval to Trump's "Bibi is my mate and can do no wrong, plus I reckon there's money to be made in beachfront property in Gaza if we can make the people who own it disappear" level of genocide approval.
Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2024 12:55 pm
Bernie spoke really well on this yesterday. Hopefully he still has some sway with those who feel "it's a vote for genocide either way".
Yeah, I saw that. Hopefully he can bring some of the purity-politics voters across.
I really do get their POV though - if you keep voting for the "You'll have to vote for me because the other guy is even worse" group, then they will be right and there will never be an effort to address your interests because you're locked in (just look at how much interest the Democrats suddenly have in talking to Latino and Black interests now that they're not a guaranteed voting bloc!). But this particular election is too important to fuck around. For once it's not just 4 years - the damage Trump plans to do will last decades, maybe generations.
Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2024 12:55 pm
Bernie spoke really well on this yesterday. Hopefully he still has some sway with those who feel "it's a vote for genocide either way".
Yeah, I saw that. Hopefully he can bring some of the purity-politics voters across.
I really do get their POV though - if you keep voting for the "You'll have to vote for me because the other guy is even worse" group, then they will be right and there will never be an effort to address your interests because you're locked in (just look at how much interest the Democrats suddenly have in talking to Latino and Black interests now that they're not a guaranteed voting bloc!). But this particular election is too important to fuck around. For once it's not just 4 years - the damage Trump plans to do will last decades, maybe generations.
Puja
Sanders spoke well.
The alternative view is coherent - Michael Moore has expressed it in the past re Hillary etc although he is very much calling for people to hold their noses and vote Kamala this time. But he is extremely worried about the votes they're losing (particularly in Michigan) over Gaza and Harris's offer of no change from Biden's policy.
Even now he's no longer on the ticket, Biden can't stop fucking everything up with gaffes. The garbage one is going to cost Harris - like the 2016 "deplorables", it reaffirms the disdain that rural and conservative voters feel that they're held in by "the elites" and will be a far more powerful motivator than any number of logical arguments. Forget who's better for you, this is now a chance to stick it to those New York and California assholes who think you're garbage. It'll drive turnout for Trump's base, and it's too close to the election for it to fade away into irrelevance.
“The return of Trump would be a beneficial shock that will enable the EU to move forward, like the pandemic or the energy crisis following the war in Ukraine,” said one senior EU diplomat who, like others quoted in this article, was granted anonymity to speak freely.
I mean, it is nice to hear a positive slant (even if it is that he'd be so terrible that people would be forced to actually do something), but it still leaves us utterly isolated and screwed cause we decided to be completely outside the nascent superpower that could form on our doorstep.
A stronger EU, in any area, only helps us and in some ways they’ll need us to help, ie there’s virtually no way they do anything militarily without working closely with us, especially now we’ve reset our relationship, whatever that means in reality.
It’s not a zero sum game.
And let’s be honest, if Europe had pulled its weight in NATO (as a collective, there’s a few who have and do) the military side of it would already look a lot brighter.
