France

[Donny osmond]

I love france. But not that much, just a little.

I keep reading internet posts about how french politics is on the edge of an abyss. Being a child of the 80s I cant be arsed researching, so can someone here tell me what is going on and what to think about it please?

[Digby]

I suspect this might be nobody in their right mind would vote for Brexit or Trump, and thus there are concerns there are enough angry mad people to actually vote in Marine Le Pen.

Putin depending on who one listens to is keen to destabilise Europe with a nationalist movement, and they'll have Farage and Trump if wanted as gurning little puppets of Putin in the background.

[Which Tyler]

Basically, France is a much more divided country, with a real problem with ghettoisation and integration; and has a strong National Front type party for quite a while; with utterly loathsome leaders.
There is a very real possibility that Marine LePenn (current leader of the Front Nationale) will be elected as president next year. She makes Farage look like a pussy cat.
Holland has the same issue, with Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party.

The issue isn't so much that they're Eurosceptic; it's that they're the BNP's equivalent.

[Adder]

Basically, France is a much more divided country, with a real problem with ghettoisation and integration; and has a strong National Front type party for quite a while; with utterly loathsome leaders.
There is a very real possibility that Marine LePenn (current leader of the Front Nationale) will be elected as president next year. She makes Farage look like a pussy cat.
Holland has the same issue, with Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party.

The issue isn't so much that they're Eurosceptic; it's that they're the BNP's equivalent.

Than what?

[Which Tyler]

Basically, France is a much more divided country, with a real problem with ghettoisation and integration; and has a strong National Front type party for quite a while; with utterly loathsome leaders.
There is a very real possibility that Marine LePenn (current leader of the Front Nationale) will be elected as president next year. She makes Farage look like a pussy cat.
Holland has the same issue, with Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party.

The issue isn't so much that they're Eurosceptic; it's that they're the BNP's equivalent.

Than what?

Sorry, comparing the Britain.

[Adder]

I don't believe that Marine Lepen will be elected President, because our System won't allow.
Our elections are held in two rounds (unless someone scores higher than 50% of votes in the first round, which is near impossible on the National level).
At the end of the first round, the two candidates with the highest scores are taken through to the next.

The issue this time is that the two main parties are suffering from a lot of "desamour" and we are not expecting a High turnout. The FN voters will vote however and we are expecting Marine Lepen to go through to the second round. I then expect a majortity to vote for the democratic candidate, probably a right wing candidate, a bit like in 2002 with Chirac's second term.

[Which Tyler]

That's pretty much my expectation too TBH; but we all know what Brexit and POTUS elections have done to expectations ahead of time; even in 2-horse races. If she rallies the disenfranchised and angry; whilst the "establishment*" fail to mobilise their supporters; then there's a very real chance.

My understanding is that Wilders is (comfortably) more likely to win his bid in Holland; but I don't know anywhere near as much about the Dutch political process.



* Quite how she can be considered non-establishment whilst essentially inheriting the party from daddy I'm not sure; but I've heard her presented as such - its (part of) why my in-laws are tempted to vote for her; and if they're willing to say as much to Ali and I; that pretty much means they've fully decided to do so.

[Digby]

That's the likely outcome, but Trump winning wasn't a likely outcome, and if turnout is bad enough then like in the US the absurd might become the reality

[Adder]

Basically, France is a much more divided country, with a real problem with ghettoisation and integration; and has a strong National Front type party for quite a while; with utterly loathsome leaders.
There is a very real possibility that Marine LePenn (current leader of the Front Nationale) will be elected as president next year. She makes Farage look like a pussy cat.
Holland has the same issue, with Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party.

The issue isn't so much that they're Eurosceptic; it's that they're the BNP's equivalent.

Than what?

Sorry, comparing the Britain.

I'm not sure, France doesn't have those strong pro independence movements. I know there are the Corsicans, Brettany, Basque movements, and at a stretch the Occitan moveement but they are certainly not as strong.

You are however right to highlight the fact that there are divisions.
France History is being taught with the Idea of a providential leader, come to save the nation.(Aka Napoleon, DeGaulle...) and every Presidential Election, the candidates try to appear as such. They also have this ridiculous concept of the Elite (even the socialists!). France's gov is full of this "elite" who have gone though the same schools and are usually from the same background. After decades of pretty poor leadership, this "Elite" is feeling the heat. Add to that a strong Idea of corruption and Impunity (Sarkozy, Juppe, Chirac...)


Main issues in France:

*Unemployment :around 10% , although the current gov is doing wonders with statistics thanks to the new "working poor" trend.

*Suburbs: The French "cités", which have been mostly abandoned by the "white French" have been used to shelter migrant communities.
These suburbs see limited and badly planned investments. Unemployment is high among these communities due to multiple factors such poor Education, and racism against them. In some areas unemployment and criminality are very high. French governments have failed to deal with this issue since the 80's.

*Security is also a big issue, be it with the Delinquents and the current terrorist threat.

*Social Mobility: Due to the concept of an Elite, and the importance of connections.

Marine lePen has worked hard on showing a different face than that of her Algerian war veteran fascist father. She has navigated the Front National into a more acceptable political party. All the main issues in France have been great for them.Unemployment, un-integrated communities, Security and corruption. Add to that the current migrant crisis and we have the perfect storm.

[Adder]

That's pretty much my expectation too TBH; but we all know what Brexit and POTUS elections have done to expectations ahead of time; even in 2-horse races. If she rallies the disenfranchised and angry; whilst the "establishment*" fail to mobilise their supporters; then there's a very real chance.

My understanding is that Wilders is (comfortably) more likely to win his bid in Holland; but I don't know anywhere near as much about the Dutch political process.



* Quite how she can be considered non-establishment whilst essentially inheriting the party from daddy I'm not sure; but I've heard her presented as such - its (part of) why my in-laws are tempted to vote for her; and if they're willing to say as much to Ali and I; that pretty much means they've fully decided to do so.

HAHA, II forgot to mention this. Very Trump like. "Growing up as a millionaire in a Mansion in the suburb of Saint Cloud, I understand the daily struggle of the Masses".

Appoling conditions to grow up in (1988)




PS, I know many people who say that if they are presented with Sarkozy vs her, they would vote for her.

[Which Tyler]

I'm not sure, France doesn't have those strong pro independence movements. I know there are the Corsicans, Brettany, Basque movements, and at a stretch the Occitan moveement but they are certainly not as strong.

I wasn't so much talking about independence movemens - though my impression is that the Basque separatists are still quite active (if less violent). I knew Corsican independence was a thing, but understood it to be pretty minor; didn't know that Brittany did at all though.
I was meaning divisions between section of society; lack of integration of minorities (immigrants mostly); including 2nd/3rd/4th generation immigrants; ghetoisation, anti-Islamic sentiment, urban vs rural, race, even division of class, gender and sexuality (however hypocritical that feels to say as a Brit.) etc

Britain's no paradise on this stuff, but I stand by "less divided" along (most of) these lines.

[Adder]

I'm not sure, France doesn't have those strong pro independence movements. I know there are the Corsicans, Brettany, Basque movements, and at a stretch the Occitan moveement but they are certainly not as strong.

I wasn't so much talking about independence movemens - though my impression is that the Basque separatists are still quite active (if less violent). I knew Corsican independence was a thing, but understood it to be pretty minor; didn't know that Brittany did at all though.
I was meaning divisions between section of society; lack of integration of minorities (immigrants mostly); including 2nd/3rd/4th generation immigrants; ghetoisation, anti-Islamic sentiment, urban vs rural, race, even division of class, gender and sexuality (however hypocritical that feels to say as a Brit.) etc

Britain's no paradise on this stuff, but I stand by "less divided" along (most of) these lines.

The Basque movement isn't too active in France.
Corsicans have declared an end to violent confrontation
Brettany are racist but non violent.(small scandal with the Vannes Rugby Club in Pro D2 being sponsored by Radio Breizh).
The Occitan Movement is more interested in promoting the Occitan language.

UK is a lot better when it comes to social mobility. Also Britain has been relatively pro active when it comes to integrating some communities (post Brixton Riots).
Sarkozy in France got rid of the "Police de proximite" which had been developped to created links between the Police and some communities.
« la police n’est pas là pour organiser des tournois sportifs, mais pour arrêter des délinquants, vous n’êtes pas des travailleurs sociaux »(sarkozy 2003). -The police doesn't have for a goal to organise sporting events, but to arrest delinquents. You are not social workers-