So 40 players, who's in?

[Mellsblue]

Stephen Jones' squad. Not as left field as usual - no mention of Luther Burrell or Simon Shaw - but still a few laughs in there, notably Flyhalf.

FB:
1/2P
Kearney

Wing:
Seymour
Watson
North

Centre:
S Williams
Joseph
Roberts
Taylor

FH:
Farrell
Biggar
Jackson

SH:
Murray
Webb
Youngs

Prop:
McGrath
Marler
M Rolipola
Cole
Nel

Hooker:
Hartley
George
Cowan-Dickie

Lock:
Itoje
Kruis
AWJ
Charteris
Henderson

Flanker:
Hardie
Haskell (obviously)
Moriarty
Warburton

No8:
B Rolipola
Faletau

Haskell? Id suggest that there are a number of candidates above him. Actually, there are plenty of candidates above him. I'm also surprised that Liam Willians is no where in that squad.

It's Stephen Jones. You should be suprised that you're only suprised about two picks.

He had another piece of journalistic brilliance yesterday. When talking about Ashton biting Waller he questioned the veracity of Northampton's evidence as the bite mark on Wallers arm only showed the lower teeth. How do you bite with only your lower teeth, he asked. You don't Stephen, but if you're wearing a gumshield you won't produce any bite marks with your upper teeth.

[Sandydragon]

Good point Mell.

As for defending Ashton. Any teeth marks should be enough FFS. No rugby fan wants to see that in the game.

[cashead]

Hookers
Scott Baldwin (Wales)
Rory Best (Ireland)
Sean Cronin (Ireland)
Dylan Harley (Eng)

Props
Dan Cole (England)
Tadhg Furlong (Ireland)
Gethin Jenkins (Wales)
Jack McGrath (Ireland)
WP Nel (Scotland)
Mako Vunipola (England)

Locks
Jonny Gray (Scotland)
Richie Gray (Scotland)
Maro Itoje (England)
Joe Launchbury (England)
Devin Toner (Ireland)

Loose Forwards
Taulape Faletau (Wales)
John Hardie (Scotland)
Jamie Heaslip (Ireland)
Sean O'Brien (Ireland)
Peter O'Mahony (Ireland)
Chris Robshaw (England)
Billy Vunipola (England)

Halfbacks
Gareth Davies (Wales)
Greig Laidlaw (Scotland)
Conor Murray (Ireland)
Ben Youngs (England)

Five-Eighths
Dan Biggar (Wales)
Owen Farrell (England)
Jonny Sexton (Ireland)

Midfield
Jonathan Davies (Wales)
Alex Dunbar (Scotland)
Robbie Henshaw (Ireland)
Jonathan Joseph (England)

Back Three
Leigh Halfpenny (Wales)
Stuart Hogg (Scotland)
Rob Kearney (Ireland)
Jonny May (England)
Simon Zebo (Ireland)

Utility Back
Huw Jones (Scotland)
Jared Payne (Ireland)


England - 11
Dylan Harley (Eng)
Dan Cole (England)
Mako Vunipola (England)
Maro Itoje (England)
Joe Launchbury (England)
Chris Robshaw (England)
Billy Vunipola (England)
Ben Youngs (England)
Owen Farrell (England)
Jonathan Joseph (England)
Jonny May (England)

Ireland - 14
Rory Best (Ireland)
Sean Cronin (Ireland)
Tadhg Furlong (Ireland)
Jack McGrath (Ireland)
Devin Toner (Ireland)
Jamie Heaslip (Ireland)
Sean O'Brien (Ireland)
Peter O'Mahony (Ireland)
Conor Murray (Ireland)
Jonny Sexton (Ireland)
Robbie Henshaw (Ireland)
Rob Kearney (Ireland)
Simon Zebo (Ireland)
Jared Payne (Ireland)

Wales - 7
Scott Baldwin (Wales)
Gethin Jenkins (Wales)
Taulape Faletau (Wales)
Gareth Davies (Wales)
Dan Biggar (Wales)
Jonathan Davies (Wales)
Leigh Halfpenny (Wales)

Scotland - 8
WP Nel (Scotland)
Jonny Gray (Scotland)
Richie Gray (Scotland)
John Hardie (Scotland)
Greig Laidlaw (Scotland)
Alex Dunbar (Scotland)
Stuart Hogg (Scotland)
Huw Jones (Scotland)

[Mikey Brown]

Matt Scott not going because he is too slow seems as odd a suggestion as the idea that Gatland would consider him in the first place.

I feel weirdly like I'm rooting for an awful, tragic Gatfest where we just pick the stodgiest, least skilful options available. How about?

1. Marler
2. Ford
3. Cole
4. AWJ
5. Davies
6. Lydiate
7. Haskell
8. Stander

9. Youngs
10. Farrell
11. Brown
12. Roberts
13. Someone Welsh? Henshaw? A half-fit, overweight Tuilagi?
14. Cuthbert
15. Halfpenny

That'll do.

It seems to mostly be the 3rd choice picks that are particularly hard, though in crucial positions 2, 9, 10, 15. The 3/4 line is a complete mess though there are a couple of good 13s around.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Hookers
Scott Baldwin (Wales)
Rory Best (Ireland)
Sean Cronin (Ireland)
Dylan Harley (Eng)

Props
Dan Cole (England)
Tadhg Furlong (Ireland)
Gethin Jenkins (Wales)
Jack McGrath (Ireland)
WP Nel (Scotland)
Mako Vunipola (England)

Locks
Jonny Gray (Scotland)
Richie Gray (Scotland)
Maro Itoje (England)
Joe Launchbury (England)
Devin Toner (Ireland)

Loose Forwards
Taulape Faletau (Wales)
John Hardie (Scotland)
Jamie Heaslip (Ireland)
Sean O'Brien (Ireland)
Peter O'Mahony (Ireland)
Chris Robshaw (England)
Billy Vunipola (England)

Halfbacks
Gareth Davies (Wales)
Greig Laidlaw (Scotland)
Conor Murray (Ireland)
Ben Youngs (England)

Five-Eighths
Dan Biggar (Wales)
Owen Farrell (England)
Jonny Sexton (Ireland)

Midfield
Jonathan Davies (Wales)
Alex Dunbar (Scotland)
Robbie Henshaw (Ireland)
Huw Jones (Scotland)
Jonathan Joseph (England)

Back Three
Leigh Halfpenny (Wales)
Stuart Hogg (Scotland)
Rob Kearney (Ireland)
Jonny May (England)
Simon Zebo (Ireland)

Utility Back
Jared Payne (Ireland)

Jamie George over Baldwin and Hartley and only take 3 hookers.
Props are ok but I think Geth is done and I'd rather take a punt on Fagerson.
That's probably my selection of locks too.
Back row I see no earthlyreason for taking Robshaw or Hardie. I'd take Tipuric and Warburton in their place and take Henderson as an extra lock/6 option.

I would take 3 scrum halves, dropping Laidlaw.
I would take Jackson ahead of Biggar. I would take Ford in addition. Pretty much nothing would induce me to start Farrell at 10 but he's probably worth a place as a possible 12 (gods help us).
The midfield you've selected is pretty dreadful. I don't really know what you're thinking. Davies can't and won't pass so doesn't travel. Dunbar or Jones could go but not both. I'd probably take Scott Williams ahead of either. I'd definitely take Bennett at this stage though I'll be monitoring Ringrose carefully as a possible.
Back 3 selection looks ok and Payne would certainly be an asset on tour.

[cashead]

Back row I see no earthlyreason for taking Robshaw or Hardie. I'd take Tipuric and Warburton in their place and take Henderson as an extra lock/6 option.

I would take 3 scrum halves, dropping Laidlaw.
I would take Jackson ahead of Biggar. I would take Ford in addition. Pretty much nothing would induce me to start Farrell at 10 but he's probably worth a place as a possible 12 (gods help us).
The midfield you've selected is pretty dreadful. I don't really know what you're thinking. Davies can't and won't pass so doesn't travel. Dunbar or Jones could go but not both. I'd probably take Scott Williams ahead of either. I'd definitely take Bennett at this stage though I'll be monitoring Ringrose carefully as a possible.
Back 3 selection looks ok and Payne would certainly be an asset on tour.

I'm looking at Robshaw as a 6/6.5 rather than an openside, and his form this year is not something I would overlook.
Hardie has a gigantic workrate, and is the kind of openside suited to playing in NZ. Plus, he knows the game here inside out for obvious reasons.

Laidlaw, I'd be looking at as a midweek points machine, plus a back-up 10 to avoid another situation where Hogg is asked to play at first-five like 3 and a half years ago. His experience as test captain, much like Robshaw, would e valuable to have in a large squad as well.

Farrell would be a back-up 10 behind Sexton and Biggar, but I'd be considering him primarily as a goal-kicking 12 since Sexton isn't exactly the most reliable on that front.

As for Davies' passing, this is from a Lions tour match against the Tahs.

Looks OK to me.

Huw Jones, I've plonked in the centres primarily because that's where he's played a fair bit, but he should actually be a utility back like Payne.

That plus some of the selections were based on preferring a more cosmopolitan mix than, say, Clive Woodward's "2003 England team plus some others from Scotchtown, Eye-land and Whey-lows or something, who gives a shit?" which we saw in 2005.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Back row I see no earthlyreason for taking Robshaw or Hardie. I'd take Tipuric and Warburton in their place and take Henderson as an extra lock/6 option.

I would take 3 scrum halves, dropping Laidlaw.
I would take Jackson ahead of Biggar. I would take Ford in addition. Pretty much nothing would induce me to start Farrell at 10 but he's probably worth a place as a possible 12 (gods help us).
The midfield you've selected is pretty dreadful. I don't really know what you're thinking. Davies can't and won't pass so doesn't travel. Dunbar or Jones could go but not both. I'd probably take Scott Williams ahead of either. I'd definitely take Bennett at this stage though I'll be monitoring Ringrose carefully as a possible.
Back 3 selection looks ok and Payne would certainly be an asset on tour.

I'm looking at Robshaw as a 6/6.5 rather than an openside, and his form this year is not something I would overlook.
Hardie has a gigantic workrate, and is the kind of openside suited to playing in NZ. Plus, he knows the game here inside out for obvious reasons.

Laidlaw, I'd be looking at as a midweek points machine, plus a back-up 10 to avoid another situation where Hogg is asked to play at first-five like 3 and a half years ago. His experience as test captain, much like Robshaw, would e valuable to have in a large squad as well.

Farrell would be a back-up 10 behind Sexton and Biggar, but I'd be considering him primarily as a goal-kicking 12 since Sexton isn't exactly the most reliable on that front.

As for Davies' passing, this is from a Lions tour match against the Tahs.

Looks OK to me.

Huw Jones, I've plonked in the centres primarily because that's where he's played a fair bit, but he should actually be a utility back like Payne.

That plus some of the selections were based on preferring a more cosmopolitan mix than, say, Clive Woodward's "2003 England team plus some others from Scotchtown, Eye-land and Whey-lows or something, who gives a shit?" which we saw in 2005.

By all means don't overlook Robshaw's form this year. Equally don't overlook how slow he is. Of all the places for that to be exposed NZ is the most likely. For England there may not be better options. For the Lions there are probably half a dozen. Try naming one thing he's better at than Warburton. Hardie does have a gigantic workrate, but he's far from alone in that. As with Robshaw there are simply better players. hell, even the Scots amongst us probably wouldn't select him.

All the fly halves who would be going are reliable kickers - except perhaps Ford. I don't know where you get the idea that Sexton isn't. In addition Halfpenny will be going. I see no need at all for Laidlaw who doesn't have the range of any of those other kickers. Biggar isn't even the best 10 at his club.

That there is a video of Davies managing to complete a selection of very ordinary passes on one occasion should be a clue. He's terrible both in terms of selecting whether and when to pass and in actual completion of pass. He butchered a number of opportunities for Wales this Autumn as he does every year. Huw Jones is an ok player. I wouldn't put him higher than that and there are better players in Scotland, never mind these Islands.

[cashead]

By all means don't overlook Robshaw's form this year. Equally don't overlook how slow he is. Of all the places for that to be exposed NZ is the most likely. For England there may not be better options. For the Lions there are probably half a dozen. Try naming one thing he's better at than Warburton.

Not getting sent off in a world cup semifinal.

All the fly halves who would be going are reliable kickers - except perhaps Ford. I don't know where you get the idea that Sexton isn't. In addition Halfpenny will be going. I see no need at all for Laidlaw who doesn't have the range of any of those other kickers. Biggar isn't even the best 10 at his club.

Have a look at the stats gathered here. Laidlaw, as goalkicker, added more value to his team than Sexton did all year. Likewise with Biggar for Wales. Of course, there are other extenuating circumstances like Sexton becoming far more injury-prone (he is around the age where Dan Carter started to fall apart, and has played in a far more attritional domestic competition than Carter did at the same age), which would account for the drop in his goal-kicking success rate (he was just under 80%, which fell to just over 70% in November - Farrell went through a similar process, coming back from injury) but I'd rather rely on someone like Farrell at 12 or Halfpenny at fullback (or wing) than Sexton if I were supporting the Lions and the series came down to one kick at goal.

[Big D]

There won't be 7 Scots in there but at the minute (will change come 6N) I'd go with:
Hooker (3):
George
Best
Probably Cronin

Prop (6):
Dan Cole
Furlong
Nel
McGrath
M Vunipola
Dickinson/Healey/Jenkins - None of them would let us down.

2nd Row (6):
J Gray
Itoje
Toner
Launchbury
Kruis/R Gray
Henderson (6 cover too)

Back Row (6+Henderson and Itoje if need be):
Faletau
B Vunipola
O'Mahoney
O'Brien
Tipuric
Barclay - I like the fact he can cover all 3 positions.

Scrum Half (3):
Murray
Youngs
Davies

10's (3):
Sexton
Ford
AN. Other

Centres (6) maybe 1 too many 12's:
Farrell
Henshaw
Dunbar
Williams
JJ
Jones

Back 3 (6):
Hogg
Williams
Seymour
May
Zebo
Probably 1/2p

[Big D]

That there is a video of Davies managing to complete a selection of very ordinary passes on one occasion should be a clue. He's terrible both in terms of selecting whether and when to pass and in actual completion of pass. He butchered a number of opportunities for Wales this Autumn as he does every year. Huw Jones is an ok player. I wouldn't put him higher than that and there are better players in Scotland, never mind these Islands.

On recent form for Stormers/WP and what he showed in the AI's he is way ahead of Bennett and Taylor at 13. Although he's only clearly ahead of Taylor due to injury.

[Big D]

By all means don't overlook Robshaw's form this year. Equally don't overlook how slow he is. Of all the places for that to be exposed NZ is the most likely. For England there may not be better options. For the Lions there are probably half a dozen. Try naming one thing he's better at than Warburton. Hardie does have a gigantic workrate, but he's far from alone in that. As with Robshaw there are simply better players. hell, even the Scots amongst us probably wouldn't select him.

I agree re Hardie, he misses too many tackles and ends up hurt too often. I wouldn't take Warburton though as thing stand. But realistically there is zero chance that Gatland leaves Warburton and AWJ at home.

[Digby]

I've just watched that clip on JD's passing, it doesn't look okay to me. Though one isn't picking Davies for his hands if one wanted him, if picking someone for their hands was the key requirement then Eastmond would be on the plane.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

That there is a video of Davies managing to complete a selection of very ordinary passes on one occasion should be a clue. He's terrible both in terms of selecting whether and when to pass and in actual completion of pass. He butchered a number of opportunities for Wales this Autumn as he does every year. Huw Jones is an ok player. I wouldn't put him higher than that and there are better players in Scotland, never mind these Islands.

On recent form for Stormers/WP and what he showed in the AI's he is way ahead of Bennett and Taylor at 13. Although he's only clearly ahead of Taylor due to injury.

You'll have watched him more closely than I and so that surprises me. i think Bennett's a cracking player so there's no shame being behind him. There's just a sense that he makes things happen which i've not seen in Jones yet.

I like your selection. As always I'd forgotten a couple and Barclay is a great call. I don't know this chap Other you've selected at 10. I'd go with Jackson (Paddy) but would not gripe at Russell - assuming he gets back to his best - or Davies as a bolter.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

By all means don't overlook Robshaw's form this year. Equally don't overlook how slow he is. Of all the places for that to be exposed NZ is the most likely. For England there may not be better options. For the Lions there are probably half a dozen. Try naming one thing he's better at than Warburton.

Not getting sent off in a world cup semifinal.

All the fly halves who would be going are reliable kickers - except perhaps Ford. I don't know where you get the idea that Sexton isn't. In addition Halfpenny will be going. I see no need at all for Laidlaw who doesn't have the range of any of those other kickers. Biggar isn't even the best 10 at his club.

Have a look at the stats gathered here. Laidlaw, as goalkicker, added more value to his team than Sexton did all year. Likewise with Biggar for Wales. Of course, there are other extenuating circumstances like Sexton becoming far more injury-prone (he is around the age where Dan Carter started to fall apart, and has played in a far more attritional domestic competition than Carter did at the same age), which would account for the drop in his goal-kicking success rate (he was just under 80%, which fell to just over 70% in November - Farrell went through a similar process, coming back from injury) but I'd rather rely on someone like Farrell at 12 or Halfpenny at fullback (or wing) than Sexton if I were supporting the Lions and the series came down to one kick at goal.

7 kicks is not exactly a representative sample. Nor is 12 for that matter. There's nothing wrong with Sexton's goalkicking and Barrett isn't the dead eye kicker that a dozen kicks this autumn would indicate.

[Big D]

That there is a video of Davies managing to complete a selection of very ordinary passes on one occasion should be a clue. He's terrible both in terms of selecting whether and when to pass and in actual completion of pass. He butchered a number of opportunities for Wales this Autumn as he does every year. Huw Jones is an ok player. I wouldn't put him higher than that and there are better players in Scotland, never mind these Islands.

On recent form for Stormers/WP and what he showed in the AI's he is way ahead of Bennett and Taylor at 13. Although he's only clearly ahead of Taylor due to injury.

You'll have watched him more closely than I and so that surprises me. i think Bennett's a cracking player so there's no shame being behind him. There's just a sense that he makes things happen which i've not seen in Jones yet.

I like your selection. As always I'd forgotten a couple and Barclay is a great call. I don't know this chap Other you've selected at 10. I'd go with Jackson (Paddy) but would not gripe at Russell - assuming he gets back to his best - or Davies as a bolter.

Sadly Bennett isn't first choice with Glasgow now. He is young and plenty of time though.

Wouldn't grumble at Jackson as 3rd 10. Few could be in with a shout. I'm not convinced sexton makes it through the whole tour though.

[Hooky]

Hogg
Williams
Joseph
Williams
Nowell
Ford
Webb
Vunipola
Warbuton
Stander
Kruis
AWJ
Cole
Best
????

I'd like this but kicking is an issue. Farrel is a good player but not the best option at centre and halfpenny is probably who you'd want kicking but he's not really the best option at wing or full back. Maybe him in for Hogg, with Hogg off bench. Sexton and Biggar are options at fly half but I really like Ford.

[Sandydragon]

Agreed , Hooky, we need to take out points as precious few will be on offer. There might have to be space found for a halfpenny or Farrell purely in that basis.

Although, sexton is no mean kicker and I think he will feature heavily given his previous lions winning experience and that, at his best, there aren't many fly halves who can touch him.

[Mellsblue]

I think Sexton is favourite for the 10 jersey but injuries will almost certainly be a problem. I just can't see him getting through the tour unscathed. Farrell is probably in second place followed by Biggar. I can't see Gatland going anywhere near Ford or Russell unless he takes them as clear third choice in the hope of racking up some moral boosting points in mid-week. I say that knowing there won't be any easy games in mid-week.

[Stom]

Been thinking about the squad. After the first two weeks, I've been impressed by a few players, but more have been poor for me.

Marler, Mako, McGrath,
Best, George, ?
Cole, Fagerson, Furlong
AWJ, Launchbury, Lawes, Itoje, Gray, Gray, Toner
Robshaw, Stander, SOB, Tipuric, Heaslip, Faletau, BillyV
Murray, ?
Sexton, Jackson, Ford, Farrell
Henshaw, Ringrose, Te'o, Williams, Joseph, Daly
May, Nowell, North, Earls, Seymour, Maitland
Halfpenny, L.Williams, Hogg, Watson

Cut that lot!

I'm seriously unimpressed by the level of SH play this 6N, though...

[Puja]

Is AWJ really as undroppable as the pundits seem to think? Well, yes, cause Gatland's in charge, but should he be? Frankly I don't know he's better than Itoje/JonnyGray who would be my first choice locks and he's facing an uphill battle against Launch, Lawes and RGray to even be on the bench. It just seems yo be assumed that he's inked in on the team sheet and I'm really not seeing why that would be the case.

Puja

[Mikey Brown]

I can't say I really get the AWJ thing either. He's of the right quality and I guess is some sort of a leader but is there anything he does better than Gray. To me its Launch and Gray leading the way at the moment. The potential of Itoje alongside Jonny Gray for the next 12 years is insane though.

[Renniks]

Is AWJ really as undroppable as the pundits seem to think? Well, yes, cause Gatland's in charge, but should he be? Frankly I don't know he's better than Itoje/JonnyGray who would be my first choice locks and he's facing an uphill battle against Launch, Lawes and RGray to even be on the bench. It just seems yo be assumed that he's inked in on the team sheet and I'm really not seeing why that would be the case.

Puja

He's been consistent playing well for quite some time now.
He also has more leadership and experience than the people you listed
With the Lions potentially lacking strong leadership elsewhere (I wouldn't have Hartley, Best, Laidlaw, Barclay, Warburton, Heaslip in starting XV…) is it worth having someone like AWJ start? How you'd choose the other two is beyond me though…

Maybe we can swap out inside centre for an additional second row?

[bruce]

If you assume that one of the current nation captains should be Lions captain, not necessarily a assumption I agree with but nevertheless, then none of them are particularly nailed on starters. The closest you might get other than AWJ is Best.

[Puja]

If you assume that one of the current nation captains should be Lions captain, not necessarily a assumption I agree with but nevertheless, then none of them are particularly nailed on starters. The closest you might get other than AWJ is Best.

The thing is that it's strikingly unlikely that Best will not be starting hooker, or at the very least in the XXIII. There's just not enough competition there. Whereas at lock, it's utterly ridiculous.

Puja

[Eugene Wrayburn]

I am a massive Itoje fan but he's been quite ordinary on the flank and also lately for Sarries in Europe. As a result there isn't a lock who unarguably deserves to be on the plane, never mind the team. The closest I can see is Gray the younger.