World Cup Draw - & how should it be done?

[rowan]

The repechage tournament is going to be interesting. I think it's slated for Autumn next year, which raises the possibility that it will be held in Hong Kong in lieu of the regular 4-way tournament (won by Russia last year, ahead of the hosts, Zimbabwe & PNG).

Likely contestants?

If I understand it correctly, Pacific 3 (probably Tonga or Samoa) will face Europe 2 (probably Russia or Spain) in a home & away series. The Pacific team will probably win and go directly to the World Cup, while the European team will probably lose and go to the repechage.

Meanwhile, Asia 1 (Hong Kong or Korea) will face Oceania 1 (Cook Is or PNG) in a home & away series for place in the repechage. The Asian team will probably win and go to the repechage. The Oceania team will probably be eliminated at this stage.

Africa 2 (Kenya?)

Americas 3 (Uruguay?)

Most likely line-up therefore: Russia/Spain, Hong Kong/Korea, Kenya, Uruguay.

Preiction: It'll probably come down to the Europe team v Uruguay, though Kenya definitely in with a shout. Asia not likely to threaten, not even Hong Kong if it were on their home-patch, as Russia's comfortable victory in last year's quad tourny indicated.

[Lizard]

The only thing I would disagree with is that Kenya won't be that competitive, I reckon.

[rowan]

African teams are tough at home but notoriously bad on the road. Namibia have really thumped some of the ENC division 1 teams down there in Windhoek, but taken a few lickings from the same foe in Europe, for example. Remember 2015, when they got trounced by Spain in the Nations Cup, but then returned to Namibia and outclassed Russia. Kenya has yet to play in Europe, but they struggled to a single-point win in Brazil last year (Germany beat Os Tupis comfortably in two encounters in Brazil two years ago) & were also blitzed by Hong Kong at the Dubai tournament in 2011. Meanwhile, Russia at home were much too good for Zimbabwe in the repechage series for the final spot in 2015 (Russia in turn went down to Uruguay). So all indications are that, if the repechage tournament is in Hong Kong (just a guess), Kenya will struggle to match the more seasoned European and Americas representatives. I'd love them to prove me wrong, however . . .

[Lizard]

Wherever the tournament is, I will bet you a pint it won't be in Kenya.

When I was in Kenya & Uganda, I managed to miss both Elgon Cup by being in the wrong country of the two both times.

[rowan]

Well, anything could happen. Romania lost to Germany last month and could easily end up in the playoff with a Pacific Island team - & with an outside chance of winning. On the other hand, Germany (who edged Uruguay in the AIs) might just get there themselves if they continue to improve, though that victory in Offenbach began to look more and more like a flash in the pan as they struggled to put away Belgium and lost the rest of their games.

Kenya totally blew its chance to qualify in 2015 and it might well be Tunisia or Zimbabwe who claim the 2nd spot in Africa. I think Namibia will qualify directly because their toughest games are in Windhoek. Zimbabwe have already been eliminated once but got a reprieve when this year's African Cup was expanded from four to six. It would be just typical of both the Sables and African rugby if they now came back from the dead to qualify for the repechages. I seriously doubt we'll see them at the World Cup, however. Tunisia could be the dark horse, with their largely French-based squad. Uganda and Senegal have plenty of raw talent - but probably a little too raw to pose a serious threat.

Uruguay are certainly likely to be the South American representative in the repechages, as per usual. Canada are really in a slump and it wouldn't be a great surprise if they ended up going there instead, but the Canucks tend to field an experimental side in Americas competition (as they did in the shock loss to Brazil recently), and I think they'll qualify comfortably enough once the serious games come around. Nothing to suggest Chile or Brazil will get there, despite the latter's steady improvement.

Asia - it can only be Hong Kong or Korea, with the former more likely. The Oceania Cup winner shouldn't worry them - unless it's the Cooks with an entirely NZ-based side (possible). Still, the Asian team ought to make the repechages comfortably enough.

[rowan]

To put that last paragraph into perspective, after Japan, 11th, the highest ranked Asian nations are HK & Korea at 26th & 28th, respectively, and then it's a huge slide down to Sri Lanka & Kazakhstan at 40th & 41st, respectively, then another huge slide down to Malaysia at 54th, the Phillipines at 58th & Singapore at 59th. Even the Cook Islands rank higher than the latter trio at 47th. So basically HK & Korea facing the likes of Sri Lanka or Kazakhstan is like a couple of ENC third division teams such as Malta or Lithuania taking on ENC division 1 battlers Germany or Belgium. In fact, Sri Lanka actually decided to forego their Asian championship promotion-relegation match with HK a few years ago because the coach thought it would be too demoralising for his players!! First time I ever heard of anything like that in rugby...

Another thing about those rankings is some of the African teams are ridiculously underrated. I know this is partly due to their relative inactivity, and there are extenuating circumstances with regards to Morocco (who were banned from African competition for some years), but Zimbabwe, Uganda & Tunisia at 37th, 43rd and 48th, respectively, is insane. They're all in the African Cup top division, and any one of them would hold its own in the ENC 1st divison. Morocco, meanwhile, won the Maghreb Cup at the end of last year, edging both Tunisia & hosts Algeria in a very tight competition, so 49th is farcical to say the least. They and the others mentioned would be roughly on a par with Germany, by my estimation.

[rowan]

How does it work?

Rugby World Cup 2019 in Japan comprises of 20 teams allocated into four pools of five teams. The 12 directly qualified teams from Rugby World Cup 2015 will be seeded based on the World Rugby World Rankings on Wednesday, May 10, 2017 and positioned into three bands of four teams.

The 12 directly qualified teams are those that finished in the top three of each RWC 2015 pool and are:
1. New Zealand – Rugby World Cup 2015 champions
2. Australia – Rugby World Cup 2015 runners-up
3. South Africa – Rugby World Cup 2015 semi-finalist
4. Argentina – Rugby World Cup 2015 semi-finalist
5. Wales – Rugby World Cup 2015 quarter-finalist
6. Scotland – Rugby World Cup 2015 quarter-finalist
7. Ireland – Rugby World Cup 2015 quarter-finalist
8. France – Rugby World Cup 2015 quarter-finalist
9. England – Rugby World Cup 2015 third in Pool A
10. Japan – Rugby World Cup 2015 third in Pool B
11. Georgia – Rugby World Cup 2015 third in Pool C
12. Italy – Rugby World Cup 2015 third in Pool D

The remaining eight teams for RWC 2019 will come through the global qualification process, which kicked off in 2016, and will be known as:
1. Oceania 1
2. Europe 1
3. Americas 1
4. Oceania 2
5. Africa 1
6. Americas 2
7. Play-off winner
8. Repechage winner

For details on the regional qualification process visit http://www.rugbyworldcup.com/qualifying/process
As with previous RWC tournaments, there will be four pools of five teams. Each team will be banded according to strength to try and ensure evenly matched pools. The teams in each band will be randomly drawn to determine the pools they go into.
The 12 directly qualified teams will be allocated into the top three bands as follows:

Band 1 The four highest ranked directly qualified teams
Band 2 The next four highest ranked directly qualified teams
Band 3 The final four directly qualified teams

The eight qualifying places will be allocated to the other two bands, Band 4 & 5.

World Rugby Chairman Bill Beaumont said: "The pool draw is an important milestone on the road to Rugby World Cup 2019 as it really drives excitement and momentum both in the host nation and throughout the global rugby family – it is the moment when teams and fans really start to plan for their Rugby World Cup 2019 experience.

The timing of the draw two and a half years out from Rugby World Cup 2019 enables RWCL and Japan Rugby 2019 to develop the match schedule in association with Rights Holding broadcasters, confirm venues and base camps and provide teams with an appropriate lead-in time to maximise planning and preparation.”

Japan Rugby 2019 organising committee Chief Executive Akira Shimazu said: "It is the first time that the pool draw has been hosted outside of the UK or Ireland and we are determined to make the most of this opportunity to showcase the very best of Japan to the world, and the best of rugby to Japan. It is very exciting."



So we already know the first three bands,

Band 1
New Zealand, England, Australia and Ireland
Band 2
Scotland, France, South Africa and Wales
Band 3
Argentina, Japan, Georgia and Italy
Band 4
Oceania 1, Europe 1, Americas 1 and Africa 1
Band 5
Oceania 2, Americas 2, Europe/Oceania winner and Repechage Winner

[Puja]

Do you know what time it's scheduled for?

Puja

[rowan]

I don't, sorry. Perhaps it's on the World Rugby site.

[rowan]

But this might help:

[rowan]

Japan's 9 hours ahead of GMT. So this should be out in the morning European-time. Wow, I'm almost excited! Still think it would be better if they waited until all the teams had qualified tho. Ok, just for laughs, the possibilities are fairly extensive, but I'll take a stab at guessing the groups:

NZ, Wales, Georgia, Oceania 1 (Fiji), Repechage winner (Uruguay)
England, Scotland, Argentina, Africa 1 (Namibia), Americas 2 (Canada)
Australia, France, Japan, Europe 1 (Romania), Oceania 2 (Samoa)
Ireland, South Africa, Italy, Americas 1 (USA), Europe/Oceania (Tonga)

[Lizard]

So what would be the worst possible draw? I would hate to see

Aust, SA, Arg, USA, Uruguay (A mini-RC without the best RC team, and a rehash of American qualifying)
England, France, Italy, Namibia, Canada (Half a 6N with no real challenge for England, and the most boring minnows unlikely to unseat Italy)
Ireland, Wales, Georgia, Romania, Samoa (6N and ENC match-ups with Georgia given a hard task to make a 6N case)
NZ, Scotland, Japan, Fiji, Tonga(This would give Japan a chance to be giant-killers again but let's be real. It would the 6th time NZ has played Scotland in a RWC with the result likely to follow the first 5. Plus a redo of Oceania qualifying).

[Puja]

My personal choice for the draw would be:

England, South Africa, Italy
Australia, Scotland, Japan
New Zealand, France, Argentina, Samoa, Fiji
Ireland, Wales, Georgia

My rationales are a) wanting a good draw for England, b) wanting a good draw for Japan and c) having an amusing pool for New Zealand.

Puja

[rowan]

Live now . . .

Ireland, Scotland, Japan, Europe 1, Oceania/Europe playoff winner
NZ, SA, Italy, Africa 1, repechage winner
England, France, Argentina, Americas 1, Oceania 2
Australia, Wales, Georgia, Oceania 1, Americas 2

[Lizard]

NZ has Italy again. And South Africa!

[rowan]

2 soft groups with the hosts in one of them. NZ, SA might be called a Pool of Death, but, let's face it, both teams will glide through, so perhaps the toughest group is England's with 3 teams capable of progresing and Oceania 2 more than capable of throwing a spanner into the works. Yes, NZ & Italy together for the 6th time in 9 tournaments. Definitely needs to go to 6 groups of 4 in 2023. That's not a game I'd personally bothered to watch. Meanwhile, my prediction was not even close, though I didn't expect it to be ! !

[Puja]

Well bugger. The groups that I'd picked out for both England and New Zealand, but the silly buggers got confused and drew them the wrong way around.

Puja

[rowan]

So, allowing for all kinds of variations with the Oceania trio, we're likely looking at:

Ireland, Scotland, Japan, Romania, Tonga
NZ, SA, Italy, Namibia, Uruguay
England, France, Argentina, USA, Samoa
Australia, Wales, Georgia, Fiji, Canada

Thus Namibia, if it qualifies, has an excellent opportunity to finally notch first win, Argentina has its work cut out getting back into the quarters though at this stage their clash with France looks 50/50, while two of the Oceania qualifiers will have a fairly realistic shot at the last 8 if they can achieve an upset against one of the Celtic teams...

Also, not sour grapes because I really don't care too much, but it does seem a tad unfair to seed the draw after the Autumn tours and before the spring/summer tours.

[canta_brian]

From BBC live updates user comment

James K: England in the hardest group by far...Georgia and Argentina are not on the same level. Irish will have no excuse to not reach the Semi's at least  

Can't understand why they get called whingeing poms.

[rowan]

Pool A must be one of the weakest groups ever. A solitary semi-final appearance between them, and that in 91 when the Boks were't involved.

It's also one of the faults with this system that the North Americans might both try to lose their qualifying encounter now, as they'll have a better chance of progressing from Australia's group than England's !!

Has the playoff route through to the final been determined yet?

[Adder]

Pool A must be one of the weakest groups ever. A solitary semi-final appearance between them, and that in 91 when the Boks were't involved.

It's also one of the faults with this system that the North Americans might both try to lose their qualifying encounter now, as they'll have a better chance of progressing from Australia's group than England's !!

Has the playoff route through to the final been determined yet?

We woz robbed of another in 2015!

[Lizard]

Pool A: 0 RWC winners
Pool B: 2 RWC winners with 5 titles
Pool C: 1 RWC winner, 1 title
Pool D: 1 RWC winner, 2 titles

[loudnconfident]

Q: Can anyone tell me why the draw is made so early? the Soccer WC draws are made ~9months from the tourney. Makes much more sense and the rankings are more accurate. If soccer can do it (and its a much large event) why does rugby have to seed 30 months b4 the RWC?

[rowan]

I've often asked the same question. I believe it has something to do with the ticketing, travelling fans often making up large proportions of the crowds at the group stages. It's not like football, of course, where you can just fill a stadium at the drop of a hat. But personally I think the system sucks, and the draw should be done after all teams have qualified, with the possible exception of the repechage winner - even if that means bringing some of the qualifying tournaments forward.

[loudnconfident]

I've often asked the same question. I believe it has something to do with the ticketing, travelling fans often making up large proportions of the crowds at the group stages. It's not like football, of course, where you can just fill a stadium at the drop of a hat. But personally I think the system sucks, and the draw should be done after all teams have qualified, with the possible exception of the repechage winner - even if that means bringing some of the qualifying tournaments forward.

+ 1. When done years before you get the absurd system where tops sides have to drop out at the pool stage and the tourney "seeding" can be unbalanced. When you think what a huge event it is, to screw up the seeding is absurd. I have heard the "travelling issues" too, but again am unimpressed. The Soccer WC is a much bigger event and they manage it. Hey ho..