Statistic of the Day

[Lizard]

Most recent year* not scoring 50+ in a test:
NZ 2009
Eng 2010
Arg 2010
Wales 2013
Ire 2014
Fra 2015
Aust 2016
Italy 2016
Sco 2016
SA 2016

*Excluding 2017

Most recent concession of 50+:
SA v NZ 2017
Aust v NZ 2017
Sco v Eng 2017
Ita v Ire 2017
Arg v NZ 2016
Fra v NZ 2015
Ire v NZ 2012
Wales v Eng 2007
Eng v SA 2007
NZ N/A

[scuzzaman]

Argentina's most recent concession of 50+?

Just to balance the two lists ...

[Lizard]

Argentina's most recent concession of 50+?

Just to balance the two lists ...

Oops. It was meant to be in there. Edited now.

[rowan]

Number of tests this year for T2/3

11 - Georgia, Brazil, Uruguay
10 - USA, Canada, Chile, Japan, Romania, Russia
9 - Namibia, Spain, Germany, Kenya
8 - Fiji
7 - Samoa
5 - Tonga

Number of tests this year for T1

14 - Australia, New Zealand
13 - South Africa
12 - Argentina
11 - England, Wales, Scotland, France, Italy, Ireland

[scuzzaman]

Number of tests this year for T2/3

11 - Georgia, Brazil, Uruguay
10 - USA, Canada, Chile, Japan, Romania, Russia
9 - Namibia, Spain, Germany, Kenya
8 - Fiji
7 - Samoa
5 - Tonga

Number of tests this year for T1

14 - Australia, New Zealand
13 - South Africa
12 - Argentina
11 - England, Wales, Scotland, France, Italy, Ireland

So, doing the math (cheating using XL of course) there's a negative 0.45 correlation between tests played and ranking, across the whole sample.

There's a negative 0.55 correlation between tests played and ranking in the T1 sample (although I redefined it only to include the top 12 current IRB World Rugby rankings, because these qualify for the next RWC, which is a presumed goal*).

There's a positive 0.36 correlation between tests played and ranking in the T2 sample (similarly redefined as those listed outside the top 12 current World Rugby rankings).

What this tells us is, I think, not much. You *could* argue that the T1 teams are playing too many games per year; this is the strongest supported inference of the three calculations. You could argue less strongly that the T2 teams are not playing enough tests per year.

The average number of tests in (my) T1 sample is 11.42
The average number of tests in (my) T2 sample is 9.36

(*The correlation for the originally listed T1 is negative 0.44, with an average number of tests of 11.9.
The correlation for the originally listed T2 is positive 0.31, with an average number of tests of 9.31)

Logically, this leaves 10 tests per year as the sweet spot.

Sure would make the statistics easier!

[scuzzaman]

Argentina's most recent concession of 50+?

Just to balance the two lists ...

Oops. It was meant to be in there. Edited now.

You're a national treasure.

Thanks.

[rowan]

Number of tests this year for T2/3

11 - Georgia, Brazil, Uruguay
10 - USA, Canada, Chile, Japan, Romania, Russia
9 - Namibia, Spain, Germany, Kenya
8 - Fiji
7 - Samoa
5 - Tonga

Number of tests this year for T1

14 - Australia, New Zealand
13 - South Africa
12 - Argentina
11 - England, Wales, Scotland, France, Italy, Ireland

So, doing the math (cheating using XL of course) there's a negative 0.45 correlation between tests played and ranking, across the whole sample.

There's a negative 0.55 correlation between tests played and ranking in the T1 sample (although I redefined it only to include the top 12 current IRB World Rugby rankings, because these qualify for the next RWC, which is a presumed goal*).

There's a positive 0.36 correlation between tests played and ranking in the T2 sample (similarly redefined as those listed outside the top 12 current World Rugby rankings).

What this tells us is, I think, not much. You *could* argue that the T1 teams are playing too many games per year; this is the strongest supported inference of the three calculations. You could argue less strongly that the T2 teams are not playing enough tests per year.

The average number of tests in (my) T1 sample is 11.42
The average number of tests in (my) T2 sample is 9.36

(*The correlation for the originally listed T1 is negative 0.44, with an average number of tests of 11.9.
The correlation for the originally listed T2 is positive 0.31, with an average number of tests of 9.31)

Logically, this leaves 10 tests per year as the sweet spot.

Sure would make the statistics easier!

Precisely

[rowan]

Which countries have scored centuries in official test matches, and which have conceded them? That would be interesting.

[rowan]

Here's a few from Rugbydata, but some are obviously missing, including Kenya 100 Tunisia 10, & Guatemala 114 El Salvador 0 this year alone . . .


09 Sep 2003 Rwanda 9 - 107 Zambia
18 May 1994 Portugal 11 - 102 Wales Universitario Lisboa
Lisbon, Portugal
01 May 2004 Argentina 147 - 7 Venezuela Prince of Wales Country Club
Santiago, Chile
11 Jun 2005 South Africa 134 - 3 Uruguay Basil Kenyon Stadium
East London, South Africa
02 Nov 2003 England 111 - 13 Uruguay Lang Park
Brisbane, Australia
14 May 2011 Paraguay 6 - 102 Uruguay
21 Aug 1999 England 106 - 8 United States Twickenham
London, England
05 May 2012 Japan 106 - 3 United Arab Emirates
11 Sep 2003 Burundi 0 - 100 Uganda Lusaka
Lusaka, Zambia
16 Jun 2000 New Zealand 102 - 0 Tonga North Harbour
15 Oct 1999 England 101 - 10 Tonga Twickenham
London, England
05 May 2001 Luxembourg 3 - 116 Sweden Cessange
Cessange, Luxembourg
21 Jun 2014 Mauritius 134 - 0 Swaziland
10 May 2014 Japan 132 - 10 Sri Lanka
09 Oct 2002 Japan 129 - 6 Sri Lanka
21 Aug 1969 Fiji 113 - 13 Solomon Islands Army Barracks
Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea
27 Oct 1994 Hong Kong 164 - 13 Singapore Petaling Jaya Stadium
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
12 Nov 2005 Germany 108 - 0 Serbia & Montenegro Heidelburg
Heidelburg, Germany
03 Sep 2008 New Zealand 101 - 14 Samoa Yarrow Stadium
New Plymouth, New Zealand
13 May 2000 Denmark 7 - 104 Russia
17 Nov 2001 England 134 - 0 Romania Twickenham
London, England
21 Sep 1976 Bulgaria 0 - 100 Romania Burgas
Burgas, Bulgaria
02 Jul 1976 Bulgaria 0 - 100 Romania
15 Sep 2007 New Zealand 108 - 13 Portugal Stade Gerland
Lyon, France
20 Apr 2013 Japan 121 - 0 Philippines
26 Apr 2014 Hong Kong 108 - 0 Philippines
02 Jul 2008 Brunei 0 - 101 Philippines
01 May 2002 Argentina 152 - 0 Paraguay Mendoza
Mendoza, Argentina
27 Apr 2003 Argentina 144 - 0 Paraguay Defensor SC
Montevideo, Uruguay
03 May 2003 Chile 102 - 0 Paraguay Defensor SC
Montevideo, Uruguay
11 Jul 2009 Samoa 115 - 7 Papua New Guinea
11 Sep 1983 Fiji 124 - 4 Niue Apia Park
Apia, Samoa
01 Aug 1987 Zimbabwe 111 - 12 Nigeria Nairobi
Nairobi, Kenya
04 Jun 1995 Japan 17 - 145 New Zealand Vodacom Park
Bloemfontein, South Africa
14 Nov 1998 England 110 - 0 Netherlands McAlpine Stadium
Huddersfield, England
25 Oct 2003 Australia 142 - 0 Namibia Adelaide Oval
Adelaide, Australia
15 Aug 2007 South Africa 105 - 13 Namibia Newlands
Cape Town, South Africa
05 Nov 1996 Korea 112 - 5 Malaysia
03 Nov 1996 Hong Kong 103 - 5 Malaysia
12 Nov 1988 Korea 102 - 0 Malaysia
5 Jun 2002 Namibia 116 - 0 Madagascar Windhoek
Windhoek, Namibia
22 Mar 2003 Tonga 119 - 0 Korea Teufaiva
Nuku Alofa, Tonga
15 May 2010 Japan 101 - 7 Kazakhstan
13 Nov 2004 Scotland 100 - 8 Japan McDiarmid Park
Perth, Scotland
21 Jul 2002 Chinese Taipei 3 - 120 Japan Tainan
Tainan, Chinese Taipei
13 May 2011 United Arab Emirates 0 - 111 Japan
14 Oct 1999 New Zealand 101 - 3 Italy McAlpine Stadium
Huddersfield, England
19 Jun 1999 South Africa 101 - 0 Italy ABSA Stadium
Durban, South Africa
09 Nov 1996 Chinese Taipei 12 - 114 Hong Kong
10 Oct 1987 Denmark 100 - 0 Finland Eskilstuna
Eskilstuna, Sweden
18 May 1994 Italy 104 - 8 Czech Republic Viadana
Viadana, Italy
28 Jun 2014 Fiji 108 - 6 Cook Islands
07 Jul 2002 Japan 155 - 3 Chinese Taipei Chichibu Stadium
Tokyo, Japan
27 Oct 1998 Japan 134 - 6 Chinese Taipei Singapore
Singapore, Singapore
30 Jun 2002 Korea 119 - 7 Chinese Taipei Seoul
Seoul, Korea
09 Sep 2006 Korea 100 - 3 China Oryu Stadium
Seoul, Korea
10 Dec 2005 Mauritius 108 - 3 Burkina Faso
23 May 2012 Argentina 111 - 0 Brazil Mahuida Parque Reina
Santiago, Chile
09 Oct 1979 Argentina 109 - 3 Brazil Prince of Wales Country Club
Santiago, Chile
08 Oct 1989 Argentina 103 - 9 Brazil Montevideo
Montevideo, Uruguay
07 Sep 1996 Zimbabwe 130 - 10 Botswana Bulawayo
Bulawayo, Zimbabwe
24 Sep 1995 Paraguay 9 - 103 Argentina Asuncion
Asuncion, Paraguay
02 Oct 1993 Brazil 3 - 114 Argentina San Pablo
San Pablo, Brazil
21 Sep 1985 Paraguay 3 - 102 Argentina Asuncion
Asuncion, Paraguay
03 May 2008 Japan 114 - 6 Arabian Gulf

http://www.rugbydata.com/centuries/

[Lizard]

Which countries have scored centuries in official test matches, and which have conceded them? That would be interesting.

I'm sure I've done that before (possibly on a previous board).

Scoring 100+:
Argentina
Australia
Chile
Colombia
Denmark
England
Estonia
Fiji
Germany
Hong Kong
Italy
Japan
Kenya
Korea
Mauritius
Namibia
New Zealand
Philippines
Romania
Russia
Samoa
Scotland
South Africa
Sweden
Tonga
Uganda
Uruguay
Wales
Zambia
Zimbabwe


Conceding 100+:
Arabian Gulf
Botswana
Brazil
Brunei
Bulgaria
Burundi
Chinese Taipei
Cook Islands
Croatia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Ecuador
Finland
Italy
Japan
Kazakhstan
Korea
Luxembourg
Madagascar
Malaysia
Namibia
Netherlands
New Caledonia
Nigeria
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Rwanda
Samoa
Serbia and Montenegro
Singapore
Solomon Islands
Sri Lanka
Swaziland
Tahiti
Thailand
Tonga
Tunisia
United Arab Emirates
United States of America
Uruguay
Venezuela

Teams that have managed both:
Denmark
Italy
Japan
Korea
Namibia
Philippines
Romania
Samoa
Tonga
Uruguay

This includes matches where only one team awarded caps. There has only been one such match where the uncapped side conceded a ton - Estonia v Montengrin President's XV, 2014-16 ENC Div 3. Greece withdrew from the contest and were replaced by the Montenegrin President's side.

[Lizard]

Looks like Sudamérica Rugby Cup 2017 div C hasn't made it onto Statsguru either.

[rowan]

So Italy are the only tier 1 nation to have conceded one, of course, while France & Ireland are the only two tier 1 nations not to have scored one. However, French XVs have scored a few, and I think their opponents, at least, considered them to be test matches. These include 104-3 v Tunisia in 1979, 106-12 v Paraguay in 1988, 126-6 v Croatia in 1993 and 100-3 v Portugal in 1997. Brazil had a lucky escape back in the mid-70s, holding the French to precisely 99 points. Meanwhile, Fiji, Georgia & Canada are the only tier 2 nations not to have been on the receiving end of a test century, though the latter did concede one Against Australia A in 2002.

[rowan]

At a glance Japan appears to have the most with 10 official test tons, followed by Argentina on 8 & NZ on 5. Of course, Japan was among NZ's 5 victims.

[rowan]

Paraguay appear to have conceded the most tons - 6, which is twice as many as any other nation, 4 were against Argentina, 1 against Uruguay and 1 against Chile. They were also on the receiving end of the biggest loss on record 0 - 152 to Argentina. Hong Kong have the highest score in an official test, beating Singapore 164 - 13. Meanwhile, at a quick count 42 nations have conceded tons, so it's really not that unusual, and 30 nations have scored them. & at a very quick count there have been 66 tons registered in total.

[rowan]

Italy is not just the only tier 1 nation to have conceded a ton, it has actually conceded 3, which is more than any of the tier 2 teams. Hong Kong & Korea have scored the most among tier 3 nations with 4 apiece (according to the info at hand).

[Lizard]

An update on this, from Feb 2016:

All Blacks try-scoring record

This record does not change hands often but could do so this year.

First of all - the progression:
1903-1904: O. Asher, R. McGregor and G. Tyler shared the record with 1 try each in New Zealand's first test

1904-1908: D. McGregor took the record in 1904, extended it from 2 to 6 by 1906 and held it for 2 more years

1908-1973: The great F. Mitchinson reached 7 tries in 1908, aided by a hat-trick in his first test. Another hat-trick helped him to 10 (in only 9 tests) by 1910. He didn't add to that in his last two tests in 1913, but held the record for an amazing 63 years.

1973-1983: Ian Kirkpatrick, the renowned flanker, scored his 11th try in 1973. He took the record up to 16 by 1977.

1983-1988: Stu Wilson took the record in 1983 and moved it on to 19 in the same test by scoring a hat trick against the Lions in his last year in Black.

1988-1999: John Kirwan scored his 20th try in 1988 and advanced the record further than any previous holder by add another 15 to go to 35 by 1994. JK was aided by being able to play more tests than any of the previous record holders. Stu Wilson, for example, played 34 tests in 7 years, JK played 63 over 11 years.

1999-2002: Jeff Wilson passed JK's mark at RWC1999, climbing to 44 tries by the end of his glittering career in 2001.

2002-2007: Close on Wilson's heels was his All Blacks team mate, Christian Cullen, who over took Goldie in 2002, adding just 2 tries to the record before his premature axing from the team.

2007-????: Doug Howlett surpassed Jeff in 2007, also his last year in black, adding a further 3 to move the record to 49, a mark which still stands 8 years later, making his the longest reign since John Kirwan.


Who next?
Julian Savea has been tearing it up, scoring 38 tries in only 41 tests (39 starts) or 0.93 tries per test. No other All Black has scored as many tries as quickly. Savea, Wilson, Cullen and Howlett are joined by Rokocoko (46) in the 38+ club. Savea reached 38 in his 39th test, Jeff Wilson in his 52nd, Howlett in his 48th, Cullen in his 47th, and Rokocoko just behind the Bus in hitting that mark in his 42nd test

If Savea remains fit and keeps scoring at this rate, he will need to play in 13 of the All Blacks' 14 tests scheduled for this year to take the record.

The next highest current player is Kieran Read on 20. If Reado maintains his current scoring rate (and Savea disappears) he could take the record from Howlett by his 209th test match, in about 2028.

Savea in fact played in only 11 of NZ's 14 tests in 2016, plus 2 out of 8 this year. But his scoring rate has dropped markedly. He was on 0.93 tries/test at the time of the above post. Since then he's scored "only" 0.62 tries/test, leaving him at second equal on the All Blacks' tryscoring list along with Cullen and Joe Rokocoko (who reached 46 after Howlett had taken the record from Cullen). Despite slowing down a bit, he is still the fastest to 46, hitting that mark in 53 tests. Cullen took 54, Howlett 60 and Rokocoko 64. At his 2016-17 rate, Savea would need to play another 7 matches to overtake Howlett. As matters stand, this looks unlikley.

Read has been overtaken by Ben Smith as the next most prolific current player. Smith was on 19, one behind Reado at the start of 2016 after 48 tests (0.40/test). Since then, there has been some sort of change in him or the systems because he has rocketed to 29 in only 16 tests (at 0.56/test). That puts him 11th on the all-time list. If he can last another 3 seasons as a first choice player he might challenge for the record but at 31 years old this seems unlikely.

Read has seriously dropped off the pace. He had 20 off 84 games in 2016 (0.23/tests). He scored in the first test of 2016 but has not added to his tally since in a further 19 tests! (0.05/test for 2016-17)

Other possibe future contenders include:
Beauden Barrett - 23 tries in 57 tests but only 27 starts. He's 26 and a more regular starter now.
MIlner-Skudder - 11 tries in only 10 tests, but seems unlikely to have a long, injury-free career.
Ioane - 7 in 7, but just starting out.
O. Franks- After a world record run of 95 caps without a single dot-down to his name, he is due for a golden run.

[cashead]

I'm genuinely hoping Franks gets to 100 without a test try. And on 101, he gets bundled over in a maul or something, and comes up looking furious.

[Lizard]

It must be deliberate by now. In matches he has played in, the All Blacks have scored 379 tries and 3184 points.

[Lizard]

Franks has played in four tests in which the All Blacks scored 12 or more tries, involving up to 11 different try-scorers in a match. Work shy bastard.

[scuzzaman]

Came across this somewhere on eh intertubez ... All Blacks nilling other sides since 2000:

5. vs South Africa, 57-0, 2017
4. vs Ireland, 60-0, 2012
3. vs Samoa, 78-0, 2017
2. vs Fiji, 91-0, 2005
1. vs Tonga, 102-0, 2000

Massive reversals of fortune in that table, when you consider what the Irish have done to us since, and what the Saffers used to be like not long ago.

[Lizard]

Interesting thing about that, is none of them are RWC pool games, which undoubtedly provide our weakest opposition. Makes you wonder if the All Blacks approach those games with the same intensity as matches against the Island teams which invariably serve as warm-ups for July tours.

[Lizard]

Today’s statistic:

Assuming that Liam Messam remains a 7s specialist and does not play any tests against Wales in June, and assuming that Dylan Hartley is not banned, injured or dropped for either Wales or the Aussie tour, then by the end of the June tours, old boys of Rotorua Boys High School will have won more caps for foreign test sides than for the All Blacks. That point might be reached even sooner if Teimana Harrison is elevated from the national training squad to pull on the red rose.

All Blacks RBHS Old Boys (caps):
Liam Messam (43)
Tom Donnelly (15)
Arthur Stone (9)
Trevor Berghan (3)
Alan McNaughton (3)
Craig Newby (3)
Neville Black (1)
Mike Delaney (1)

Total: 79


Poached RBHS Old Boys (nation caps) plus possibles:
Dylan Hartley (England 71)
Garrick Cowley (Samoa 4)
Teimana Harrison (England 0)
Richard Kingi (Australia 0 but played 1 tour game in 2009 and is still playing)

Total: 75

Another update:

Haretley now has 86 caps and Harrison 5. So that's 95 RBHS caps for foreign countries and 79 for the All Blacks.

Wesley or St Stephens might have similar stats?

[Lizard]

Most test losses by nation
Inspired by an online quiz where you had to name the 10 All Blacks with 15 or more losses (I got 8/10 - poor effort), here are the players with the most test losses for select nations.* Italicised names are those that are not also their nation's most-capped player.

Italy: Sergio Parisse 93**
Wales: Gethin Jenkins 65
Scotland: Chris Paterson 65
Portugal: Vasco Uva 57***
Australia: Stephen Moore 52
Ireland: Ronan O'Gara 52
Russia: Victor Gresev 49
Argentina: Juan Manual Leguizamon 49
Canada: Aaron Carpenter 48
Japan: Yukio Motoki 47
USA: Mike MacDonald 46
South Africa: Victor Matfield 46
Spain: Jaime Nava de Olano 44
Romania: Romeo Gontineac 41
Uruguay: Rodrigo Sanchez 41
France: Fabien Pelous 38
Georgia: Merab Kvirikashvili 37
Fiji: Nicky Little 34
Samoa: Census Johnstone/Brian Lima 31
England: Joe Worsley 30
Namibia: Eugene Jantjies 29
Tonga: Nili Latu 28
Germany: Kehoma Brenner 26
Czechia: Pavel Syrovy 22
Brazil: Bruxinho Piero de Moraes 21
New Zealand: Justin Marshall/Andrew Mehrtens 19

In most cases where the "biggest loser" is not the most capped, there's only one or two caps/losses in it. Stephen Moore however has played 16 fewer tests than Gregan but lost 8 more times - a stark illustration of the Wallabies recent dip in fortune. Worsley's 30 losses from 78 caps is also impressive set aside Leonard's 26 from 114 (Toby Flood has 28 from 60!).


*Losses for Lions/PI not counted
**Sergio has some stiff competition. The top 11 for all countries are all Italian
***Vasco appears to have retired last year so may soon be overtaken by his brother Gonçalo who is currently on 55

[cashead]

And let's have a look at the top 20 losingest losers in the history of test match losses.

1. Sergio Parisse (Italy) - 93
2. Martin Castrogiovanni (Italy) - 88
3. Marco Bortolami (Italy) - 82
4. Marco Bergamasco (Italy) - 75
5. Andrea Masi (Italy) - 72
6. Luke McLean (Italy) - 71
6. Alessandro Zanni (Italy) - 71
8. Gethin Jenkins (Wales/Lions) - 70
8. Andrea Lo Cicero (Italy) - 70
10. Leonardo Ghiraldini (Italy) - 69
11. Alessandro Troncon (Italy) - 67
12. Mirco Bergamasco (Italy) - 66
13. Chris Paterson (Scotland) - 65
14. Ross Ford (Lions/Scot) - 64
15. Stephen Jones (Wales/Lions) - 63
16. Salvatore Perugini (Italy) - 62
17. Alun Wyn Jones (Lions/Wales) - 61
18. Sean Lamont (Scotland) - 60
19. Gonzalo Canale (Italy) - 58
20. Brian O'Driscoll (Ireland/Lions) - 57
20. Vasco Uva (Portugal) - 57

Players in bold have played test rugby in the last 12 months, and have some chance of adding to their losing tally.

First things first, lol Italy. The fucking state of your national team.
Secondly, Parisse has a very strong chance of becoming the first ever player to notch up a century of test losses, like a Bizzaro universe version of Richie McCaw. He also holds a commanding lead of 22 losses ahead of the next likeliest, fellow Italian international Luke "Oi'm an Italian, mate" McLean.

[Lizard]

Actually, Strine for "Italian" is "Phuqindaygo"