Corbyn Wins

[Sandydragon]

Yup. Identify an area of resentment, tap into that with dog whistle comments or absurd policies that don't work and wait for enough disenfranchisement towards centralist politics to win enough people over.

I suspect many in the US are going to be very disappointed in Trump when he doesn't carry through on many of his election promises. Equally, I think many who voted for Brexit are going to be disappointed.

[Stones of granite]

I only heard about it on what I think is the repeat of HIGNFY last night, and it amused me, also I suspect we know what's he's trying to say but it is terribly written and nothing like straight talking honest politics which he ran his campaign on. That said his real problem with presenting that sort of vision is investment, and leaving aside there's little in Corbyn's histoy that suggests he's active on developing technologies that blur the cyber and the physical there's sod all to suggest Jermey's the man you'd want to talk to about driving entrepreneurial investment which is what this will need in a capitalist economy.

It was from his speech at the CBI Conference, and the quote omits the next sentence, which is quite interesting.

"I might add that this Industry ‘four point zero’ (4.0) was pioneered by the German Government’s high-tech strategy."

So, he seems to wish to copy Angela Merkel's policies in the UK.

If you read the rest of the speech, it does indeed read as though he wishes to change the entire structure of R&D and investment funding in UK industry to more closely follow the German model. Personally, I think that is a cultural change that would require a generation to follow through, and not something that can be done in a 4 year Parliament, but hey-ho what do I know.

[Digby]

I only heard about it on what I think is the repeat of HIGNFY last night, and it amused me, also I suspect we know what's he's trying to say but it is terribly written and nothing like straight talking honest politics which he ran his campaign on. That said his real problem with presenting that sort of vision is investment, and leaving aside there's little in Corbyn's histoy that suggests he's active on developing technologies that blur the cyber and the physical there's sod all to suggest Jermey's the man you'd want to talk to about driving entrepreneurial investment which is what this will need in a capitalist economy.

It was from his speech at the CBI Conference, and the quote omits the next sentence, which is quite interesting.

"I might add that this Industry ‘four point zero’ (4.0) was pioneered by the German Government’s high-tech strategy."

So, he seems to wish to copy Angela Merkel's policies in the UK.

If you read the rest of the speech, it does indeed read as though he wishes to change the entire structure of R&D and investment funding in UK industry to more closely follow the German model. Personally, I think that is a cultural change that would require a generation to follow through, and not something that can be done in a 4 year Parliament, but hey-ho what do I know.

Another dangerous policy area, whether they're long standing policies or invented in the face of being accused of having no ideas the repeat mistake that change can be delivered quickly.

[Digby]

Jeremy is now close to making Labour less popular than Brown with the recession looming - https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/09/vo ... lowest-le/

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Jeremy is now close to making Labour less popular than Brown with the recession looming - https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/09/vo ... lowest-le/

Couple of very poor by-election results aren't helping that look. I don't trust the polls any more but the next election is looking like carnage.

[Digby]

Jeremy is now close to making Labour less popular than Brown with the recession looming - https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/09/vo ... lowest-le/

Couple of very poor by-election results aren't helping that look. I don't trust the polls any more but the next election is looking like carnage.

And yet what lessons will be learnt, stipulate they had it right and blame the media for negative coverage, that they need to move to the centre, or elect still someone further to the left?

I'm still cross at Red Ed for pandering to the unions in his leadership campaign when his brother looked so much the better candidate, but with all that's happened maybe this lurch into being unelectable was unavoidable

[Sandydragon]

From Livingstone and Abbot over the weekend - 'don't panic, it will all be better in 12 months'.

Apparently the policies and leadership are fine, its just those pesky media types who are stopping progress. From the attribution of blame I'm thinking that Labour wont be any further forward in 12 months. Pending a split in the Conservatives over Brexit (not beyond fantasy) the odds for anyone other than a Tory PM in 2020 must be pretty long, and there are a whole host of northern Labour seats that UKIP must fancy their chances in.

[fivepointer]

Another year of Corbyn. Well, that might be enough to see the party completely discredited, its poll ratings plummet further and for it to become an irrelevance.

Or maybe his obvious unsuitably will be tolerated no longer and he will be eased out. The party simply cannot afford to be saddled with a leader who is both inept and unpopular. Watch the Unions to see which way they go, as well as current supporters who might start to break away.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Another year of Corbyn. Well, that might be enough to see the party completely discredited, its poll ratings plummet further and for it to become an irrelevance.

Or maybe his obvious unsuitably will be tolerated no longer and he will be eased out. The party simply cannot afford to be saddled with a leader who is both inept and unpopular. Watch the Unions to see which way they go, as well as current supporters who might start to break away.

The Unions will stay with him because he's their wet dream and if they abandon him then no Labour leader will ever pay them the slightest heed ever again.

From Livingstone and Abbot over the weekend - 'don't panic, it will all be better in 12 months'.

Apparently the policies and leadership are fine, its just those pesky media types who are stopping progress. From the attribution of blame I'm thinking that Labour wont be any further forward in 12 months. Pending a split in the Conservatives over Brexit (not beyond fantasy) the odds for anyone other than a Tory PM in 2020 must be pretty long, and there are a whole host of northern Labour seats that UKIP must fancy their chances in.

Do they think the Mail is suddenly going to go pro-Corbyn? Or that the Grauniad is suddenly going to outsell the Sun? This is opposition by hoping something will turn up and it's not good enough.

[Sandydragon]

Another year of Corbyn. Well, that might be enough to see the party completely discredited, its poll ratings plummet further and for it to become an irrelevance.

Or maybe his obvious unsuitably will be tolerated no longer and he will be eased out. The party simply cannot afford to be saddled with a leader who is both inept and unpopular. Watch the Unions to see which way they go, as well as current supporters who might start to break away.

The Unions will stay with him because he's their wet dream and if they abandon him then no Labour leader will ever pay them the slightest heed ever again.

From Livingstone and Abbot over the weekend - 'don't panic, it will all be better in 12 months'.

Apparently the policies and leadership are fine, its just those pesky media types who are stopping progress. From the attribution of blame I'm thinking that Labour wont be any further forward in 12 months. Pending a split in the Conservatives over Brexit (not beyond fantasy) the odds for anyone other than a Tory PM in 2020 must be pretty long, and there are a whole host of northern Labour seats that UKIP must fancy their chances in.

Do they think the Mail is suddenly going to go pro-Corbyn? Or that the Grauniad is suddenly going to outsell the Sun? This is opposition by hoping something will turn up and it's not good enough.

Or even that there will be a mass conversion by the British public to suddenly agree with them. The thing is, there will always be an excuse (the media, not being left wing enough) so I doubt the Labour fringe, or mainstream as it appears now, will change their tune any point soon.

[Sandydragon]

Another year of Corbyn. Well, that might be enough to see the party completely discredited, its poll ratings plummet further and for it to become an irrelevance.

Or maybe his obvious unsuitably will be tolerated no longer and he will be eased out. The party simply cannot afford to be saddled with a leader who is both inept and unpopular. Watch the Unions to see which way they go, as well as current supporters who might start to break away.

I think the big union leaders are fellow travellers. It would need a change of leadership in the unions to do that.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Another year of Corbyn. Well, that might be enough to see the party completely discredited, its poll ratings plummet further and for it to become an irrelevance.

Or maybe his obvious unsuitably will be tolerated no longer and he will be eased out. The party simply cannot afford to be saddled with a leader who is both inept and unpopular. Watch the Unions to see which way they go, as well as current supporters who might start to break away.

The Unions will stay with him because he's their wet dream and if they abandon him then no Labour leader will ever pay them the slightest heed ever again.

From Livingstone and Abbot over the weekend - 'don't panic, it will all be better in 12 months'.

Apparently the policies and leadership are fine, its just those pesky media types who are stopping progress. From the attribution of blame I'm thinking that Labour wont be any further forward in 12 months. Pending a split in the Conservatives over Brexit (not beyond fantasy) the odds for anyone other than a Tory PM in 2020 must be pretty long, and there are a whole host of northern Labour seats that UKIP must fancy their chances in.

Do they think the Mail is suddenly going to go pro-Corbyn? Or that the Grauniad is suddenly going to outsell the Sun? This is opposition by hoping something will turn up and it's not good enough.

Or even that there will be a mass conversion by the British public to suddenly agree with them. The thing is, there will always be an excuse (the media, not being left wing enough) so I doubt the Labour fringe, or mainstream as it appears now, will change their tune any point soon.

The public are fickle and so could change their mind. The press aren't and won't.

[fivepointer]

Corbyn has had his chance to make an impression on the public. They see him as ineffectual; that wont change now. In fact, if we get into a GE the Tories and right wing media are going to have a field day bringing up his past associations and his stance on NATO and Russia. They have left him alone up until now, but that filing cabinet in Tory central office is groaning with material.

Not all the big Unions are on side. Unison and the GMB could easily withdraw support unless things change. McCluskey and Unite are big backers but they all know that their interests are best served by a Labour government, something Corbyn will almost certainly never be able to deliver.

[Sandydragon]

The Unions will stay with him because he's their wet dream and if they abandon him then no Labour leader will ever pay them the slightest heed ever again.


Do they think the Mail is suddenly going to go pro-Corbyn? Or that the Grauniad is suddenly going to outsell the Sun? This is opposition by hoping something will turn up and it's not good enough.

Or even that there will be a mass conversion by the British public to suddenly agree with them. The thing is, there will always be an excuse (the media, not being left wing enough) so I doubt the Labour fringe, or mainstream as it appears now, will change their tune any point soon.

The public are fickle and so could change their mind. The press aren't and won't.

Without a major disaster, that would need a huge swing, beyond precedence. To be 13 odd points behind a sitting government is a disaster for an opposition party. Labour's best hope is that the Liberals can recover and take some seats off the Torys, although the forthcoming boundary changes will make that hope even more forlorn.

Actually, whilst I largely agree with you about the media's enduring allegiance, I do recall that the Sun has swapped between Labour and the Conservatives a few times over the years, depending on who was going to win.

[Which Tyler]

Actually, whilst I largely agree with you about the media's enduring allegiance, I do recall that the Sun has swapped between Labour and the Conservatives a few times over the years, depending on who was going to win.

Didn't the Sun claim that it was their support (and only their support) that won #10 for Blair?

[Sandydragon]

Actually, whilst I largely agree with you about the media's enduring allegiance, I do recall that the Sun has swapped between Labour and the Conservatives a few times over the years, depending on who was going to win.

Didn't the Sun claim that it was their support (and only their support) that won #10 for Blair?

Not sure, but I do remember 'It was the Sun wot won it' after Major won in 1992. I also remember them deciding to support Labour not long before the 97 election and then turning back to the Conservatives during the Brown era.

[Dr Robert]

I say this with no pleasure, but it looks to me like the Labour party is in a death spiral.

Brexit has cut their supporter base in half. I don't see a way that they can appeal to urban liberals who voted to remain, and northerners from formerly industrial areas that voted to leave. On top of that they have a totally dysfunctional leadership group who lack any experience of campaigning (outside of the left), making policy, communicating or simply acting as an opposition. That Corbyn is an uninspiring leader seems to be one of their lesser troubles. Other than 'opposing austerity', I don't know what Labour are offering, which again highlights their lack of ideas and vision. I just see spiralling irrelevance ahead with eventual destruction at the ballot box.

Their only way in is if the economy starts to tank in a big way (which is more than possible), but I don't see McDonnell and Corbyn capitalising on this. It's possible that if the hard-right continues their dominance of the Tory party, then more moderate Conservatives will leave and potentially join with the Lib Dems and some Labour MP's, but under FPTP I can't see them establishing any decent foothold.

For me, Labour needs to recognise their approaching demise and campaign for PR and full federal devolution, with an eventual split into two co-operative parties of the left and centre-left.

[Digby]

I say this with no pleasure, but it looks to me like the Labour party is in a death spiral.

It's not good for those on the right of the labour party who've rather lost their party, or those on the left of labour who's rather be in power than hold out for the perfect future which will never arrive, and it's not good for many independents, lib dem and conservative voters who actually want an official opposition. This does feel so similar to the Tory response to Blair in going through a succession of leaders who weren't going to challenge, mind even they put up more resistance as an opposition, and Blair had more than a 12 seat majority to work with.

As with the Conservatives though it mayn't take much time to turn things around, if and when the labour party decides to stop sulking.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Or even that there will be a mass conversion by the British public to suddenly agree with them. The thing is, there will always be an excuse (the media, not being left wing enough) so I doubt the Labour fringe, or mainstream as it appears now, will change their tune any point soon.

The public are fickle and so could change their mind. The press aren't and won't.

Without a major disaster, that would need a huge swing, beyond precedence. To be 13 odd points behind a sitting government is a disaster for an opposition party. Labour's best hope is that the Liberals can recover and take some seats off the Torys, although the forthcoming boundary changes will make that hope even more forlorn.

Actually, whilst I largely agree with you about the media's enduring allegiance, I do recall that the Sun has swapped between Labour and the Conservatives a few times over the years, depending on who was going to win.

This year unprecedented doesn't seem like much of a challenge. Once some actual decisions are taken on Brexit a lot of people will be very unhappy. Whilst it's not likely that the Remainians will turn to Labour, nor the Northern bigots, both of those things are possible.