RugbyRebels

Mellsblue wrote:

jared_7 wrote:

Mellsblue wrote:Rumours that Blair is reaching out to old donors and contacts with a view to fronting a new party. Perhaps he and D Miliband will come charging in on their white horse to save the centre-left.

We live turbulent but interesting times.

Centre-left?

Let's hope so. Otherwise a party left of centre haven't won an election since the 70's.

If indeed ever. If you actually look at the welfare state as invented and the beveridge report the likes of jared would probably call it dangerously reactionary.

Eugene Wrayburn wrote: If indeed ever. If you actually look at the welfare state as invented and the beveridge report the likes of jared would probably call it dangerously reactionary.

Reactionary which way? Which is to ask is Jared to the left or right?

It's now been made clear what 'straight talking honest politics means', that being: "We now face the task of creating a New Britain from the fourth industrial revolution - powered by the internet of things and big data to develop cyber physical systems and smart factories"

Whether the Labour party's Glorious Leader™ was talking about the British economy or trying his hand at scripting the next Terminator film isn't really clear.

He's taken plenty of stick for that, and I'm not here to defend him, but I have to say it makes sense to me, albeit a particularly clumsy sentence.

That maybe says more about me than I should really reveal.

If Britain is going to be a leader in ecommerce and all things digital then its good to see Labour getting on board. At least for this week.

Sadly, I think he is using terms he doesn't understand (most people who mention cyber, internet of things etc are talking bollocks most of the time) and I don't think he has fully grasped the potential for high tech to undermine the job prospects of his party (and TU) members.

I only heard about it on what I think is the repeat of HIGNFY last night, and it amused me, also I suspect we know what's he's trying to say but it is terribly written and nothing like straight talking honest politics which he ran his campaign on. That said his real problem with presenting that sort of vision is investment, and leaving aside there's little in Corbyn's histoy that suggests he's active on developing technologies that blur the cyber and the physical there's sod all to suggest Jermey's the man you'd want to talk to about driving entrepreneurial investment which is what this will need in a capitalist economy.

Digby wrote:I only heard about it on what I think is the repeat of HIGNFY last night, and it amused me, also I suspect we know what's he's trying to say but it is terribly written and nothing like straight talking honest politics which he ran his campaign on. That said his real problem with presenting that sort of vision is investment, and leaving aside there's little in Corbyn's histoy that suggests he's active on developing technologies that blur the cyber and the physical there's sod all to suggest Jermey's the man you'd want to talk to about driving entrepreneurial investment which is what this will need in a capitalist economy.

Indeed, in fact he is likely to do exactly the opposite.

Sandydragon wrote:

Digby wrote:I only heard about it on what I think is the repeat of HIGNFY last night, and it amused me, also I suspect we know what's he's trying to say but it is terribly written and nothing like straight talking honest politics which he ran his campaign on. That said his real problem with presenting that sort of vision is investment, and leaving aside there's little in Corbyn's histoy that suggests he's active on developing technologies that blur the cyber and the physical there's sod all to suggest Jermey's the man you'd want to talk to about driving entrepreneurial investment which is what this will need in a capitalist economy.

Indeed, in fact he is likely to do exactly the opposite.

I suspect for himself and his party he'd do much better not worrying about a coherent message with policies that stack together as a coherent whole (in as much as any of the major parties manage that anyway) and instead do as Trump or UKIP did/do and joust spout rabid nonsense which speaks to the lunatics who might vote for you, and then he'd still get the labour voters who'll vote labour come what may on top. With that he doesn't need to worry about having a message on the '4th industrial revolution' which forms part of a wider cogent manifesto, he's sucked at that so far and if Ed Miliband couldn't speak to the middle there's no way Glorious Leader™ will

I do worry about that sort of approach in politics, that attack groups can go after specific areas without having to explain how their ideas would work as a whole. But I don't know the Glorious Leader™ is worried about the bigger picture.

Yup. Identify an area of resentment, tap into that with dog whistle comments or absurd policies that don't work and wait for enough disenfranchisement towards centralist politics to win enough people over.

I suspect many in the US are going to be very disappointed in Trump when he doesn't carry through on many of his election promises. Equally, I think many who voted for Brexit are going to be disappointed.

Digby wrote:I only heard about it on what I think is the repeat of HIGNFY last night, and it amused me, also I suspect we know what's he's trying to say but it is terribly written and nothing like straight talking honest politics which he ran his campaign on. That said his real problem with presenting that sort of vision is investment, and leaving aside there's little in Corbyn's histoy that suggests he's active on developing technologies that blur the cyber and the physical there's sod all to suggest Jermey's the man you'd want to talk to about driving entrepreneurial investment which is what this will need in a capitalist economy.

It was from his speech at the CBI Conference, and the quote omits the next sentence, which is quite interesting.

"I might add that this Industry ‘four point zero’ (4.0) was pioneered by the German Government’s high-tech strategy."

So, he seems to wish to copy Angela Merkel's policies in the UK.

If you read the rest of the speech, it does indeed read as though he wishes to change the entire structure of R&D and investment funding in UK industry to more closely follow the German model. Personally, I think that is a cultural change that would require a generation to follow through, and not something that can be done in a 4 year Parliament, but hey-ho what do I know.

Stones of granite wrote:

Digby wrote:I only heard about it on what I think is the repeat of HIGNFY last night, and it amused me, also I suspect we know what's he's trying to say but it is terribly written and nothing like straight talking honest politics which he ran his campaign on. That said his real problem with presenting that sort of vision is investment, and leaving aside there's little in Corbyn's histoy that suggests he's active on developing technologies that blur the cyber and the physical there's sod all to suggest Jermey's the man you'd want to talk to about driving entrepreneurial investment which is what this will need in a capitalist economy.

It was from his speech at the CBI Conference, and the quote omits the next sentence, which is quite interesting.

"I might add that this Industry ‘four point zero’ (4.0) was pioneered by the German Government’s high-tech strategy."

So, he seems to wish to copy Angela Merkel's policies in the UK.

If you read the rest of the speech, it does indeed read as though he wishes to change the entire structure of R&D and investment funding in UK industry to more closely follow the German model. Personally, I think that is a cultural change that would require a generation to follow through, and not something that can be done in a 4 year Parliament, but hey-ho what do I know.

Another dangerous policy area, whether they're long standing policies or invented in the face of being accused of having no ideas the repeat mistake that change can be delivered quickly.

Jeremy is now close to making Labour less popular than Brown with the recession looming - https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/09/vo ... lowest-le/

Digby wrote:Jeremy is now close to making Labour less popular than Brown with the recession looming - https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/09/vo ... lowest-le/

Couple of very poor by-election results aren't helping that look. I don't trust the polls any more but the next election is looking like carnage.

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:

Digby wrote:Jeremy is now close to making Labour less popular than Brown with the recession looming - https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/09/vo ... lowest-le/

Couple of very poor by-election results aren't helping that look. I don't trust the polls any more but the next election is looking like carnage.

And yet what lessons will be learnt, stipulate they had it right and blame the media for negative coverage, that they need to move to the centre, or elect still someone further to the left?

I'm still cross at Red Ed for pandering to the unions in his leadership campaign when his brother looked so much the better candidate, but with all that's happened maybe this lurch into being unelectable was unavoidable

From Livingstone and Abbot over the weekend - 'don't panic, it will all be better in 12 months'.

Apparently the policies and leadership are fine, its just those pesky media types who are stopping progress. From the attribution of blame I'm thinking that Labour wont be any further forward in 12 months. Pending a split in the Conservatives over Brexit (not beyond fantasy) the odds for anyone other than a Tory PM in 2020 must be pretty long, and there are a whole host of northern Labour seats that UKIP must fancy their chances in.

Another year of Corbyn. Well, that might be enough to see the party completely discredited, its poll ratings plummet further and for it to become an irrelevance.

Or maybe his obvious unsuitably will be tolerated no longer and he will be eased out. The party simply cannot afford to be saddled with a leader who is both inept and unpopular. Watch the Unions to see which way they go, as well as current supporters who might start to break away.

fivepointer wrote:Another year of Corbyn. Well, that might be enough to see the party completely discredited, its poll ratings plummet further and for it to become an irrelevance.

Or maybe his obvious unsuitably will be tolerated no longer and he will be eased out. The party simply cannot afford to be saddled with a leader who is both inept and unpopular. Watch the Unions to see which way they go, as well as current supporters who might start to break away.

The Unions will stay with him because he's their wet dream and if they abandon him then no Labour leader will ever pay them the slightest heed ever again.

Sandydragon wrote:From Livingstone and Abbot over the weekend - 'don't panic, it will all be better in 12 months'.

Apparently the policies and leadership are fine, its just those pesky media types who are stopping progress. From the attribution of blame I'm thinking that Labour wont be any further forward in 12 months. Pending a split in the Conservatives over Brexit (not beyond fantasy) the odds for anyone other than a Tory PM in 2020 must be pretty long, and there are a whole host of northern Labour seats that UKIP must fancy their chances in.

Do they think the Mail is suddenly going to go pro-Corbyn? Or that the Grauniad is suddenly going to outsell the Sun? This is opposition by hoping something will turn up and it's not good enough.

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:

fivepointer wrote:Another year of Corbyn. Well, that might be enough to see the party completely discredited, its poll ratings plummet further and for it to become an irrelevance.

Or maybe his obvious unsuitably will be tolerated no longer and he will be eased out. The party simply cannot afford to be saddled with a leader who is both inept and unpopular. Watch the Unions to see which way they go, as well as current supporters who might start to break away.

The Unions will stay with him because he's their wet dream and if they abandon him then no Labour leader will ever pay them the slightest heed ever again.

Sandydragon wrote:From Livingstone and Abbot over the weekend - 'don't panic, it will all be better in 12 months'.

Apparently the policies and leadership are fine, its just those pesky media types who are stopping progress. From the attribution of blame I'm thinking that Labour wont be any further forward in 12 months. Pending a split in the Conservatives over Brexit (not beyond fantasy) the odds for anyone other than a Tory PM in 2020 must be pretty long, and there are a whole host of northern Labour seats that UKIP must fancy their chances in.

Do they think the Mail is suddenly going to go pro-Corbyn? Or that the Grauniad is suddenly going to outsell the Sun? This is opposition by hoping something will turn up and it's not good enough.

Or even that there will be a mass conversion by the British public to suddenly agree with them. The thing is, there will always be an excuse (the media, not being left wing enough) so I doubt the Labour fringe, or mainstream as it appears now, will change their tune any point soon.

fivepointer wrote:Another year of Corbyn. Well, that might be enough to see the party completely discredited, its poll ratings plummet further and for it to become an irrelevance.

Or maybe his obvious unsuitably will be tolerated no longer and he will be eased out. The party simply cannot afford to be saddled with a leader who is both inept and unpopular. Watch the Unions to see which way they go, as well as current supporters who might start to break away.

I think the big union leaders are fellow travellers. It would need a change of leadership in the unions to do that.

Sandydragon wrote:

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:

fivepointer wrote:Another year of Corbyn. Well, that might be enough to see the party completely discredited, its poll ratings plummet further and for it to become an irrelevance.

Or maybe his obvious unsuitably will be tolerated no longer and he will be eased out. The party simply cannot afford to be saddled with a leader who is both inept and unpopular. Watch the Unions to see which way they go, as well as current supporters who might start to break away.

The Unions will stay with him because he's their wet dream and if they abandon him then no Labour leader will ever pay them the slightest heed ever again.

Sandydragon wrote:From Livingstone and Abbot over the weekend - 'don't panic, it will all be better in 12 months'.

Apparently the policies and leadership are fine, its just those pesky media types who are stopping progress. From the attribution of blame I'm thinking that Labour wont be any further forward in 12 months. Pending a split in the Conservatives over Brexit (not beyond fantasy) the odds for anyone other than a Tory PM in 2020 must be pretty long, and there are a whole host of northern Labour seats that UKIP must fancy their chances in.

Do they think the Mail is suddenly going to go pro-Corbyn? Or that the Grauniad is suddenly going to outsell the Sun? This is opposition by hoping something will turn up and it's not good enough.

Or even that there will be a mass conversion by the British public to suddenly agree with them. The thing is, there will always be an excuse (the media, not being left wing enough) so I doubt the Labour fringe, or mainstream as it appears now, will change their tune any point soon.

The public are fickle and so could change their mind. The press aren't and won't.

Corbyn has had his chance to make an impression on the public. They see him as ineffectual; that wont change now. In fact, if we get into a GE the Tories and right wing media are going to have a field day bringing up his past associations and his stance on NATO and Russia. They have left him alone up until now, but that filing cabinet in Tory central office is groaning with material.

Not all the big Unions are on side. Unison and the GMB could easily withdraw support unless things change. McCluskey and Unite are big backers but they all know that their interests are best served by a Labour government, something Corbyn will almost certainly never be able to deliver.

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:
The Unions will stay with him because he's their wet dream and if they abandon him then no Labour leader will ever pay them the slightest heed ever again.


Do they think the Mail is suddenly going to go pro-Corbyn? Or that the Grauniad is suddenly going to outsell the Sun? This is opposition by hoping something will turn up and it's not good enough.

Or even that there will be a mass conversion by the British public to suddenly agree with them. The thing is, there will always be an excuse (the media, not being left wing enough) so I doubt the Labour fringe, or mainstream as it appears now, will change their tune any point soon.

The public are fickle and so could change their mind. The press aren't and won't.

Without a major disaster, that would need a huge swing, beyond precedence. To be 13 odd points behind a sitting government is a disaster for an opposition party. Labour's best hope is that the Liberals can recover and take some seats off the Torys, although the forthcoming boundary changes will make that hope even more forlorn.

Actually, whilst I largely agree with you about the media's enduring allegiance, I do recall that the Sun has swapped between Labour and the Conservatives a few times over the years, depending on who was going to win.

Sandydragon wrote:Actually, whilst I largely agree with you about the media's enduring allegiance, I do recall that the Sun has swapped between Labour and the Conservatives a few times over the years, depending on who was going to win.

Didn't the Sun claim that it was their support (and only their support) that won #10 for Blair?

Which Tyler wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:Actually, whilst I largely agree with you about the media's enduring allegiance, I do recall that the Sun has swapped between Labour and the Conservatives a few times over the years, depending on who was going to win.

Didn't the Sun claim that it was their support (and only their support) that won #10 for Blair?

Not sure, but I do remember 'It was the Sun wot won it' after Major won in 1992. I also remember them deciding to support Labour not long before the 97 election and then turning back to the Conservatives during the Brown era.

I say this with no pleasure, but it looks to me like the Labour party is in a death spiral.

Brexit has cut their supporter base in half. I don't see a way that they can appeal to urban liberals who voted to remain, and northerners from formerly industrial areas that voted to leave. On top of that they have a totally dysfunctional leadership group who lack any experience of campaigning (outside of the left), making policy, communicating or simply acting as an opposition. That Corbyn is an uninspiring leader seems to be one of their lesser troubles. Other than 'opposing austerity', I don't know what Labour are offering, which again highlights their lack of ideas and vision. I just see spiralling irrelevance ahead with eventual destruction at the ballot box.

Their only way in is if the economy starts to tank in a big way (which is more than possible), but I don't see McDonnell and Corbyn capitalising on this. It's possible that if the hard-right continues their dominance of the Tory party, then more moderate Conservatives will leave and potentially join with the Lib Dems and some Labour MP's, but under FPTP I can't see them establishing any decent foothold.

For me, Labour needs to recognise their approaching demise and campaign for PR and full federal devolution, with an eventual split into two co-operative parties of the left and centre-left.