RugbyRebels

Mellsblue wrote:I also agree that financial modelling turns out to be mostly bollocks but it is based on something more than an opinion. Climate change science, as far as future events are concerned, is based on modelling, I’d imagine founded on the same principles as what we’re discussing, albeit in a different scientific field to rugby analytics and financial analytics, obvs. It’s called modelling for a reason, it’s their best very, very well educated guess not a definite.

Climate change modelling has the advantage of a history of correctly predicting things and the models are backed by well-understood existing science - they know why they are predicting what they are predicting because htey know some of the mechanisms by which it works. Financial, sporting, and political modelling is rarely good at predicting things because it's mostly extrapolated from past results and past similar situations and, while it's better than guessing, it's not that much better.

Anyway, this is wandering way off the main point. I agree that I shouldn't have dismissed the experts, although I'm still hurt at the Gove comparison. That's just a horrible thing to say to anyone, even me.

Digby wrote:Are people that worried about facing Wales? They're a very limited side missing the one player who they'd actually pick who can pass. Their one out play is in fairness quite nippy as far as one out rugby goes, they work hard and they tend to be disciplined. But christ if we can't beat Wales we deserve as much as we received in 2015

They have an annoying habit of grinding out results, they've got a superb defence, they love a cross-kick and a high ball, and the quarter final is in an indoors stadium which is an atmosphere where they are historically good and we are historically rubbish. Add in the chippiness and hell yes I'm worried about facing them. Their game plan is tailored to screw us, whereas Australia we can bully up front and most of their players are used to losing to us.

And apart from anything else, I live in the West Country. I don't know what it's like where you live, but when I lived in East Anglia, you got over a loss to Wales pretty quickly. Here, there's suddenly "Welsh" people popping out of the woodwork from every direction and they'll never let you hear the end of a loss. I'd be hearing Delilah for months.

Puja

I get why people might be worried by Wales, but I just don't look at Beale and Genia and think that looks any easier. In the Midlands almost nobody cares about rugby, but seeing as my family is half Welsh I'll get a lot of updates checking I know the score if we lose, which does seem odd to me when we win as I don't think I've ever bothered sending one text or made one call doing the reverse, nonetheless it seems to be tradition at this point.

My defence to receiving phone calls is to just put the phone aside and let them talk themselves out whist I'm not listening, and on the music front I'd sing Delilah to everyone who might possibly sing it to me every time I saw them. I used to be able to sing before my voice broke, now not so much and they'd have learnt years back to be sick to the back teeth of my singing and not remotely want to encourage me to join in a sing song

Not sure where to put this but:

No games on tonight. WTF am I supposed to do all evening?

Puja wrote: And apart from anything else, I live in the West Country. I don't know what it's like where you live, but when I lived in East Anglia, you got over a loss to Wales pretty quickly. Here, there's suddenly "Welsh" people popping out of the woodwork from every direction and they'll never let you hear the end of a loss. I'd be hearing Delilah for months.

Puja

This is exactly it with England v Wales.

I lived in Hampshire for a few years, and I can promise you that 100% of the occasions that I heard anyone mention rugby were after we'd taken another beating from England.

Breaking news from Sir Clive Woodward: England won the World Cup in 2003. South Africa are playing Cheslin Kolbe on the wing who is a bit like England Rugby World Cup winner Jason Robinson.

Try of the tournament so far? Yeah, Canada are awful, but that was beautiful.

This could get pretty ugly for Canada. MInd you, taking on the Boks 6 days after the All Blacks is a tough ask.

This is an absolute murdering. Not only are South Africa scoring tries for fun, Canada have just had a man red carded for a moronic shoulder charge into someone's head at a ruck. And, to add insult to injury, South Africa are 5m out from Canada's line and then push too early at the scrum, giving away a free-kick. The half is over, but instead of waiting for the gong and then kicking out, the Canadian scrum half taps, runs, and then passes directly to Francois Steyn who takes two steps and falls over the line.

It's like a masterclass in fucking up.

Puja

Canada is winning the second half...

So tonight we've got:

Arg v USA - a dead rubber as far as the play-offs are concerned but Argentina need to win to assure themselves of automatic qualification for RWC2023. If USA win, and go on to beat Tonga, then USA will take the automatic berth. Neither side should struggle to qualify but it would be a distraction for Argentina.

Scotland v Russia - Scotland must get at least 2 BPs to mathematically stay in the contest, and win to have a realistic chance of making the quarter-finals. This shouldn't be a problem.

Fiji v Wales - Even an upset BP win would probably leave Fiji short of the QFs, unless there are some truly remarkable performances by Uruguay or Georgia against Tier 1 opponents. Fiji can however secure an automatic qualifying spot (albeit one it is likely to get anyway) while Wales could keep alive its dreams of topping a RWC Pool for the first time since 1999 (and the first time since Pools became 5 teams).

Massive disappointment in the USA performance here. This was a real opportunity for them against a knackered and demoralised Argentina side and they've done their absolute best to play them into the game and give them every opportunity to get their spirits up. They've made a ridiculous number of cheap mistakes, giving away ball and ground - commentary has just said they've made 109 tackles and missed 45, which is just silly.

Really poor.

Puja

I’m guessing it will have been a good warm up for Russia making Scotland look properly Tier 1.

Haha!

I've been a bit slow picking up on this typhoon thing, but it's completely ridiculous that matches are being cancelled and assumed to be draws (except for dead rubbers). This makes a mockery of the whole thing. Can't they find a pitch somewhere to play the matches?? Even if there's no one watching this is needed for the integrity of the competition.

Let’s bear in mind that about 300km north east of Tokyo 20 000 people lost their lives to an earthquake 8 years ago. I’m amazed they have the resources to host this at all.

morepork wrote:Let’s bear in mind that about 300km north east of Tokyo 20 000 people lost their lives to an earthquake 8 years ago. I’m amazed they have the resources to host this at all.

If they are struggling to host it at all, then, given that it is a known hotspot for natural disasters, why was it awarded to them in the first place?
Is the reassurance that “robust measures are in place” just empty words?

Son of Mathonwy wrote:I've been a bit slow picking up on this typhoon thing, but it's completely ridiculous that matches are being cancelled and assumed to be draws (except for dead rubbers). This makes a mockery of the whole thing. Can't they find a pitch somewhere to play the matches?? Even if there's no one watching this is needed for the integrity of the competition.

Playing in empty stadiums without teams having proper preparations makes a mockery too, there isn't a good option being ignored, it's just bad across the board

Digby wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:I've been a bit slow picking up on this typhoon thing, but it's completely ridiculous that matches are being cancelled and assumed to be draws (except for dead rubbers). This makes a mockery of the whole thing. Can't they find a pitch somewhere to play the matches?? Even if there's no one watching this is needed for the integrity of the competition.

Playing in empty stadiums without teams having proper preparations makes a mockery too, there isn't a good option being ignored, it's just bad across the board

I suppose the question is what is the worst and least worst option. Surely, not playing at all is worse than playing in an empty stadium. When you boil it down, it’s a sporting contest. WR might see it primarily as a cash cow but it’s only that as it’s a sporting contest. Not playing sport at a sporting event (your biggest sporting event) due to commercial reasons is the worst option.

Mellsblue wrote:

Digby wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:I've been a bit slow picking up on this typhoon thing, but it's completely ridiculous that matches are being cancelled and assumed to be draws (except for dead rubbers). This makes a mockery of the whole thing. Can't they find a pitch somewhere to play the matches?? Even if there's no one watching this is needed for the integrity of the competition.

Playing in empty stadiums without teams having proper preparations makes a mockery too, there isn't a good option being ignored, it's just bad across the board

I suppose the question is what is the worst and least worst option. Surely, not playing at all is worse than playing in an empty stadium. When you boil it down, it’s a sporting contest. WR might see it primarily as a cash cow but it’s only that as it’s a sporting contest. Not playing sport at a sporting event (your biggest sporting event) due to commercial reasons is the worst option.

I'm slightly OCD, or very according to some people who in theory are supposed to like me, so that may inform my leaning toward doing whatever the rules say. But, and I've mentioned this before, there could be knock on effects I haven't thought of, and I'm willing to back the decision they make in very difficult circumstances given how bad the situation is.

If people are so keen now to ensure matches are played they should have thought about this long before the tournament started, to my way of thinking it's their own fault for not considering the possible outcomes and lobbying to effect change before the event kicked off.

It would be interesting to know how many of the teams looked into what those “measures in place” were

Sure Japan knew it was typhoon season, and WR almost certainly knew, but I'm pretty sure anyone with access to google could have worked it out too

As such, surely they should have been pushing for clarification…

Well Georgia were putting up stout resistance there but have eventually succumbed on 23 mins.

I’m not really interested what steps the respective unions took to evaluate contingency measures. What is a union meant to do? Demand more detail on every single eventuality or refuse to participate?!?!? The line coming out of Japan is that WR were planning to move matches until commercial partners and NZ complained. If that is true then, well, what a crock of ****.

Who the f.... are these commentators. Appalling

I see the Oz TH is taking passing lessons from Ben Youngs.