COVID19

[Donny osmond]

Actually that's perfectly reasonable. Given that there will be multiple waves of this virus.

It will take a while before we can distinguish between countries such as the UK, France, Italy, Sweden, and the USA.
It will take a while before we can distinguish between countries such as South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
But we've already had enough time to distinguish between these two groups and to point out which made the most "egregious mistakes".

What do you mean by multiple "waves" of this virus?
If we get the cases and deaths well down, the only reason for them rising to this kind of level again is if we mishandle the epidemic.
Its not a foregone conclusion that there will be "waves" and saying so is handing our leaders an excuse in advance.

South Korea and Singapore will not be experiencing anything other than slight ripples in their death and case rates, and that's because they're doing the right things.

Many experts are suggesting that this virus will disappear then reappear. Hence more than one wave. Part of that will be due to the virus hitting different countries at different times.

Yes South Korea took a different path and so far they are managing this well. But there have been different approaches in Europe and we will see which is the most successful.

It should really be noted that South Korea is taking a different path THIS TIME as they got it badly wrong in the past and GOT THE OPPORTUNITY TO LEARN FROM THEIR MISTAKES which is clearly not an option for anyone else. Their different path also involves an invasion of personal privacy that simply wouldn't be tolerated in pretty much any western European country, but sure, let's keep looking at stats that we are pretty sure are inaccurate and taking our direction from a press corp that we concurrently deride as being untrustworthy.



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[Donny osmond]

So the nightingale hospital in London. Opened to great fanfare and built with an initial capacity of 500 and the ability to expand to 4000, has so far treated 41 patients.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-patients

Now I know that I’m only posting these sorts of things because of my left wing bias, but anyone who doesn’t think that this government has treated the covid crisis to the same infowars methodology as they did with brexit is an idiot.

That the nightingale hospital has only treated 41 patients so far is a very good thing. I don't get your point?

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[Mellsblue]

The 400,000 gowns from turkey have been delayed and won’t arrived today as announced.

See, that’s the issue yet again. Announce in great fanfare the best case and hide from the worst.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... y-11976238

2 things.

1: the media are at last scrutinising this government.

2: I told you so.

This government knows how to spin and absolutely nothing else.

Thought you might find this Twitter thread interesting:

[Donny osmond]

Can anyone get behind the independent paywall?

Did the government ‘ignore warnings’ about coronavirus? The evidence is weak



https://www.independent.co.uk/independe ... 74221.html

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[Mellsblue]

So the nightingale hospital in London. Opened to great fanfare and built with an initial capacity of 500 and the ability to expand to 4000, has so far treated 41 patients.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-patients

Now I know that I’m only posting these sorts of things because of my left wing bias, but anyone who doesn’t think that this government has treated the covid crisis to the same infowars methodology as they did with brexit is an idiot.

That the nightingale hospital has only treated 41 patients so far is a very good thing. I don't get your point?

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

The govt is handling the situation poorly because it is underprepared. The government is also handling the situation poorly because it is over prepared.

[fivepointer]

This from the FT's Chris Giles (a sober, serious reporter not given to make wild claims) makes grim reading.

"The coronavirus pandemic has already caused as many as 41,000 deaths in the UK, according to a Financial Times analysis of the latest data from the Office for National Statistics.

The estimate is more than double the official figure of 17,337 released by ministers on Tuesday, which is updated daily and only counts those who have died in hospitals after testing positive for the virus.

The FT extrapolation, based on figures from the ONS that were also published on Tuesday, includes deaths that occurred outside hospitals updated to reflect recent mortality trends.

The analysis also supports emerging evidence that the peak of deaths in the UK occurred on April 8 with the mortality rate gradually trending lower since, despite the 823 hospital deaths announced on Tuesday, which were sharply up on the 449 in the previous 24 hours.

The ONS data showed that deaths registered in the week ending April 10 were 75 per cent above normal in England and Wales, the highest level for more than 20 years".

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d0 ... 39799fa6ab

[canta_brian]

So the nightingale hospital in London. Opened to great fanfare and built with an initial capacity of 500 and the ability to expand to 4000, has so far treated 41 patients.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-patients

Now I know that I’m only posting these sorts of things because of my left wing bias, but anyone who doesn’t think that this government has treated the covid crisis to the same infowars methodology as they did with brexit is an idiot.

That the nightingale hospital has only treated 41 patients so far is a very good thing. I don't get your point?

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

The govt is handling the situation poorly because it is underprepared. The government is also handling the situation poorly because it is over prepared.

I’ll answer both. Nightingale is turning patients away. Why because, as it says in the article, they have built a facility but can’t staff it. You could say they are underprepared.

[Donny osmond]

So the nightingale hospital in London. Opened to great fanfare and built with an initial capacity of 500 and the ability to expand to 4000, has so far treated 41 patients.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-patients

Now I know that I’m only posting these sorts of things because of my left wing bias, but anyone who doesn’t think that this government has treated the covid crisis to the same infowars methodology as they did with brexit is an idiot.

That the nightingale hospital has only treated 41 patients so far is a very good thing. I don't get your point?

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

The govt is handling the situation poorly because it is underprepared. The government is also handling the situation poorly because it is over prepared.

Spoke if this has been mentioned already, but I was interested to learn that in Oct last year, and independent group ranked the UK at no. 2 in the world in how ready we were to face a pandemic...

https://www.ghsindex.org/

Interesting as it both highlights that, in fact, successive govts have taken it seriously and tried to prepare a way thru some sort of crisis... But the flip side is that for us to be seeing the impact we are currently seeing, mistakes have obviously been made that undeniably have cost many lives.

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[Donny osmond]

This from the FT's Chris Giles (a sober, serious reporter not given to make wild claims) makes grim reading.

"The coronavirus pandemic has already caused as many as 41,000 deaths in the UK, according to a Financial Times analysis of the latest data from the Office for National Statistics.

The estimate is more than double the official figure of 17,337 released by ministers on Tuesday, which is updated daily and only counts those who have died in hospitals after testing positive for the virus.

The FT extrapolation, based on figures from the ONS that were also published on Tuesday, includes deaths that occurred outside hospitals updated to reflect recent mortality trends.

The analysis also supports emerging evidence that the peak of deaths in the UK occurred on April 8 with the mortality rate gradually trending lower since, despite the 823 hospital deaths announced on Tuesday, which were sharply up on the 449 in the previous 24 hours.

The ONS data showed that deaths registered in the week ending April 10 were 75 per cent above normal in England and Wales, the highest level for more than 20 years".

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d0 ... 39799fa6ab

As his twitter feed makes clear, it's to do with a delay between the death happening and registration of it. That delay is currently 4 days for England and Wales, 14 days for NI and 17 days for Scotland.

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[Donny osmond]

What's most interesting to me is why so many people see that happening in the UK and yet use our figures to compare us to other countries *without thinking the same thing might be happening there*

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[canta_brian]

What's most interesting to me is why so many people see that happening in the UK and yet use our figures to compare us to other countries *without thinking the same thing might be happening there*

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I think it is perfectly possible to criticise the actions of the UK government in isolation. Simply looking at decisions made without reference to other parts of the world leaves plenty of material to analyse.

[Mellsblue]

That the nightingale hospital has only treated 41 patients so far is a very good thing. I don't get your point?

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The govt is handling the situation poorly because it is underprepared. The government is also handling the situation poorly because it is over prepared.

I’ll answer both. Nightingale is turning patients away. Why because, as it says in the article, they have built a facility but can’t staff it. You could say they are underprepared.

If you read a little deeper in to it, you’ll realise that the hospital is working almost exactly as it should.
The nursing care was always meant to come from the hospital with the patient. It was only ever meant to cater for patients within narrow parameters. It was only ever meant to be taking huge numbers if normal hospitals were overwhelmed which, other than the odd hospital on the odd day, they haven’t. It was a fail safe if London turned into Lombardy mkII. This hasn’t happened as so much extra ICU capacity was created within existing hospitals. Far too much in many outside the hotspots (for now, anyway).

[Donny osmond]

What's most interesting to me is why so many people see that happening in the UK and yet use our figures to compare us to other countries *without thinking the same thing might be happening there*

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I think it is perfectly possible to criticise the actions of the UK government in isolation. Simply looking at decisions made without reference to other parts of the world leaves plenty of material to analyse.

I agree, to an extent, but I find a lot of the criticism is a little incoherent.

The only way thru this to truly minimise deaths is to lock down from before the virus arrived until there is an effective vaccine. Anything else is a course of action that could be seen to cause "unnecessary" deaths.

So unless one is arguing for that, we're all on the same page of finding our way thru this as best we can. Which makes it a little, as I say, incoherent to be quite so excited about perceived mistakes if one isn't arguing for an 18 month lockdown.

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[Mellsblue]

‘Military personnel have criticised the NHS for its “appalling” handling of distributing personal protective equipment. The armed forces are helping with the distribution of equipment and staff have been seconded to help planning across seven hubs.

A senior army source lambasted the health service for its logistics for PPE, alleging that masks, aprons, gloves and other items were being assigned to hospitals without regard to relative need, leading to oversupply in some areas and shortages in others.

“We know how knackered their [NHS logistics] systems are, but we’ve been surprised we’ve not been called in to help more, and we’ve been surprised by their failure to ration [kit],” the insider said. Hospitals are encouraged to share stocks of PPE with local trusts who are running short.’

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mili ... -jdh369k6r

[Stom]

That the nightingale hospital has only treated 41 patients so far is a very good thing. I don't get your point?

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The govt is handling the situation poorly because it is underprepared. The government is also handling the situation poorly because it is over prepared.

Spoke if this has been mentioned already, but I was interested to learn that in Oct last year, and independent group ranked the UK at no. 2 in the world in how ready we were to face a pandemic...

https://www.ghsindex.org/

Interesting as it both highlights that, in fact, successive govts have taken it seriously and tried to prepare a way thru some sort of crisis... But the flip side is that for us to be seeing the impact we are currently seeing, mistakes have obviously been made that undeniably have cost many lives.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

The simple fact the USA are listed as #1 for preparedness for a pandemic should tell you all you need to know. The lack of hospital beds was predictable and obvious considering how low both the UK and USA come on a per capita hospital bed list (2.8/1000 for the UK and 2.9/1000 for the US). Japan have more than 4x as many beds, ditto Korea, Germany almost 3 times, the list goes on. How the USA and UK could take those top 2 spots is staggering and calls into question their methodology.

[Mellsblue]

The govt is handling the situation poorly because it is underprepared. The government is also handling the situation poorly because it is over prepared.

Spoke if this has been mentioned already, but I was interested to learn that in Oct last year, and independent group ranked the UK at no. 2 in the world in how ready we were to face a pandemic...

https://www.ghsindex.org/

Interesting as it both highlights that, in fact, successive govts have taken it seriously and tried to prepare a way thru some sort of crisis... But the flip side is that for us to be seeing the impact we are currently seeing, mistakes have obviously been made that undeniably have cost many lives.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

The simple fact the USA are listed as #1 for preparedness for a pandemic should tell you all you need to know. The lack of hospital beds was predictable and obvious considering how low both the UK and USA come on a per capita hospital bed list (2.8/1000 for the UK and 2.9/1000 for the US). Japan have more than 4x as many beds, ditto Korea, Germany almost 3 times, the list goes on. How the USA and UK could take those top 2 spots is staggering and calls into question their methodology.

As far as I’m aware, it’s because it’s based on a flu pandemic and is based on your ability to cope in extremis not on a daily basis. It’s not just based on how many beds you have on a per capita basis. As you say, clearly flawed.

[Stom]

Spoke if this has been mentioned already, but I was interested to learn that in Oct last year, and independent group ranked the UK at no. 2 in the world in how ready we were to face a pandemic...

https://www.ghsindex.org/

Interesting as it both highlights that, in fact, successive govts have taken it seriously and tried to prepare a way thru some sort of crisis... But the flip side is that for us to be seeing the impact we are currently seeing, mistakes have obviously been made that undeniably have cost many lives.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

The simple fact the USA are listed as #1 for preparedness for a pandemic should tell you all you need to know. The lack of hospital beds was predictable and obvious considering how low both the UK and USA come on a per capita hospital bed list (2.8/1000 for the UK and 2.9/1000 for the US). Japan have more than 4x as many beds, ditto Korea, Germany almost 3 times, the list goes on. How the USA and UK could take those top 2 spots is staggering and calls into question their methodology.

As far as I’m aware, it’s because it’s based on a flu pandemic and is based on your ability to cope in extremis not on a daily basis. It’s not just based on how many beds you have on a per capita basis. As you say, clearly flawed.

Ah, well that explains it. Completely irrelevant, then.

[Son of Mathonwy]

What's most interesting to me is why so many people see that happening in the UK and yet use our figures to compare us to other countries *without thinking the same thing might be happening there*

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

I think it is perfectly possible to criticise the actions of the UK government in isolation. Simply looking at decisions made without reference to other parts of the world leaves plenty of material to analyse.

I agree, to an extent, but I find a lot of the criticism is a little incoherent.

The only way thru this to truly minimise deaths is to lock down from before the virus arrived until there is an effective vaccine. Anything else is a course of action that could be seen to cause "unnecessary" deaths.

So unless one is arguing for that, we're all on the same page of finding our way thru this as best we can. Which makes it a little, as I say, incoherent to be quite so excited about perceived mistakes if one isn't arguing for an 18 month lockdown.

You're saying that there are only two possible choices:
1) you argue for an 18 month lockdown, or
2) you cannot criticise the government for their mistakes
That's a classic false dichotomy.

Of course there are other options.

No one expects to "truly minimise deaths" from Covid-19 in the way you suggest above. We don't take that approach with any other disease, eg we don't shut down the economy every winter to prevent deaths from influenza, it would wreck the economy and ultimately mean we'd have more deaths because we couldn't afford the NHS and emergency services in their current forms. It's ridiculous because it considers only Covid-19 deaths.

The truth is that we should be trying to minimise total deaths, regardless of the cause. Since Covid-19 is relatively deadly, this means paying it special attention, which sometimes (when it has spread too widely) mandates lockdown. However, if it can be managed with measures which allow us to avoid lockdown (and all the economic and psychological and social harm that entails), then that is preferable. As has been demonstrated by South Korea.

[canta_brian]

The govt is handling the situation poorly because it is underprepared. The government is also handling the situation poorly because it is over prepared.

Spoke if this has been mentioned already, but I was interested to learn that in Oct last year, and independent group ranked the UK at no. 2 in the world in how ready we were to face a pandemic...

https://www.ghsindex.org/

Interesting as it both highlights that, in fact, successive govts have taken it seriously and tried to prepare a way thru some sort of crisis... But the flip side is that for us to be seeing the impact we are currently seeing, mistakes have obviously been made that undeniably have cost many lives.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

The simple fact the USA are listed as #1 for preparedness for a pandemic should tell you all you need to know. The lack of hospital beds was predictable and obvious considering how low both the UK and USA come on a per capita hospital bed list (2.8/1000 for the UK and 2.9/1000 for the US). Japan have more than 4x as many beds, ditto Korea, Germany almost 3 times, the list goes on. How the USA and UK could take those top 2 spots is staggering and calls into question their methodology.

In 2016 operation Cygnus was run. The full findings are in a draw with the Russia report but it wasn’t a resounding success from all reports. I can only hope for the sake of other countries that we were not really the 2nd best prepared country in 2016 as well.

[canta_brian]

‘Military personnel have criticised the NHS for its “appalling” handling of distributing personal protective equipment. The armed forces are helping with the distribution of equipment and staff have been seconded to help planning across seven hubs.

A senior army source lambasted the health service for its logistics for PPE, alleging that masks, aprons, gloves and other items were being assigned to hospitals without regard to relative need, leading to oversupply in some areas and shortages in others.

“We know how knackered their [NHS logistics] systems are, but we’ve been surprised we’ve not been called in to help more, and we’ve been surprised by their failure to ration [kit],” the insider said. Hospitals are encouraged to share stocks of PPE with local trusts who are running short.’

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mili ... -jdh369k6r

My knowledge of army medical provision comes almost exclusively from M*A*S*H. Does our army have nursing staff during peace times? Nightingale sounds like a field hospital after all, could the army run it?

Also does it make sense to move more patients to Nightingale earlier thereby allowing PPE to be delivered primarily to one site (in London).

[Mellsblue]

‘Military personnel have criticised the NHS for its “appalling” handling of distributing personal protective equipment. The armed forces are helping with the distribution of equipment and staff have been seconded to help planning across seven hubs.

A senior army source lambasted the health service for its logistics for PPE, alleging that masks, aprons, gloves and other items were being assigned to hospitals without regard to relative need, leading to oversupply in some areas and shortages in others.

“We know how knackered their [NHS logistics] systems are, but we’ve been surprised we’ve not been called in to help more, and we’ve been surprised by their failure to ration [kit],” the insider said. Hospitals are encouraged to share stocks of PPE with local trusts who are running short.’

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mili ... -jdh369k6r

My knowledge of army medical provision comes almost exclusively from M*A*S*H. Does our army have nursing staff during peace times? Nightingale sounds like a field hospital after all, could the army run it?

Also does it make sense to move more patients to Nightingale earlier thereby allowing PPE to be delivered primarily to one site (in London).

This is purely about the PPE issues, ie are we as short on numbers as is being reported, is it just issues with the logistics of it all, is it a combo of both. I’ve been told by a couple of people in ‘the know’ that certain hospitals are stockpiling, though, given this report, it may not be all their fault.
The MoD has a small number of medics based in the NHS but a full deployment, and from another source I know in the MoD that has been planned for*, hasn’t been required.

*the source has said that the MoD has planned/are planning for pretty much every scenario, even ones that on the face of it are completely outlandish.

[Son of Mathonwy]

It should really be noted that South Korea is taking a different path THIS TIME as they got it badly wrong in the past and GOT THE OPPORTUNITY TO LEARN FROM THEIR MISTAKES which is clearly not an option for anyone else.

Why is it not an option to "learn from their mistakes"? The Far East's previous experience with respiratory disease was not in secret. It's all public knowledge and it's not rocket science.

Their different path also involves an invasion of personal privacy that simply wouldn't be tolerated in pretty much any western European country,

Which invasion of privacy are you thinking of here which was both:
1) essential to their Covid-19 strategy, and
2) not something that most people routinely allow Facebook and Google to do?

but sure, let's keep looking at stats that we are pretty sure are inaccurate and taking our direction from a press corp that we concurrently deride as being untrustworthy.

Give us some evidence for why "we are pretty sure" the South Korean stats are inaccurate.

[Son of Mathonwy]

South Korea and Singapore will not be experiencing anything other than slight ripples in their death and case rates, and that's because they're doing the right things.

Singapore might beg to differ:

Fair point, Singapore has let its cases slip upwards. Not deaths, though. I imagine they'll tighten up a bit.

[Mellsblue]

South Korea and Singapore will not be experiencing anything other than slight ripples in their death and case rates, and that's because they're doing the right things.

Singapore might beg to differ:

Fair point, Singapore has let its cases slip upwards. Not deaths, though. I imagine they'll tighten up a bit.

Deaths may follow the trajectory with the usual lag. Hopefully not. From what I’ve read most of the surge has emanated from migrant workers kept in squalid conditions, which is a whole other thread.....

[Son of Mathonwy]

Actually that's perfectly reasonable. Given that there will be multiple waves of this virus.

It will take a while before we can distinguish between countries such as the UK, France, Italy, Sweden, and the USA.
It will take a while before we can distinguish between countries such as South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
But we've already had enough time to distinguish between these two groups and to point out which made the most "egregious mistakes".

What do you mean by multiple "waves" of this virus?
If we get the cases and deaths well down, the only reason for them rising to this kind of level again is if we mishandle the epidemic.
Its not a foregone conclusion that there will be "waves" and saying so is handing our leaders an excuse in advance.

South Korea and Singapore will not be experiencing anything other than slight ripples in their death and case rates, and that's because they're doing the right things.

Many experts are suggesting that this virus will disappear then reappear. Hence more than one wave. Part of that will be due to the virus hitting different countries at different times.

Yes South Korea took a different path and so far they are managing this well. But there have been different approaches in Europe and we will see which is the most successful.

Well, as I've said before, if we wait till this is all over before we learn from everyone's experiences, we'd better pray that we're operating a good strategy despite our numbers being approx 100 times worse than the Far East's at this point.

Given the vast difference between the numbers in Europe and the Far East, I'm not sure why you'd be paying so much attention to differences between the European countries. As Gore Vidal said "one does not bring a measuring rod to Lilliput".