COVID19

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Mellsblue
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Re: COVID19

Post by Mellsblue »

morepork wrote:
Mellsblue wrote:So, testing not the panacea, as so widely stated? Why are ze German deaths so much lower? A combo of both ICU treatment pathway and testing?

That's a little glib. The need for testing has not changed one bit.
Where did I say it had? Was just saying that if tests are producing so many incorrect results there must be/probably are other reasons they’re doing far better than the rest of comparable Europe. The narrative is Germany are suffering less deaths purely/predominantly because they are testing so much. If 30% of tests are providing false negatives this narrative needs questioning?
The Germans are clearly the exemplar amongst large European countries. Surely correctly working out why that is so is important?
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morepork
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Re: COVID19

Post by morepork »

They stay home and are still testing at high capacity. Maybe they have a well-coordinated central command. Maybe they have a well-drilled pandemic disaster plan. Maybe they are just fucking German.


Maybe all of the above. A comprehensive response requires all of the above. What is to be gained from looking at each variable in isolation at the moment?
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Eugene Wrayburn
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Re: RE: Re: COVID19

Post by Eugene Wrayburn »

Donny osmond wrote:
Sandydragon wrote:
Son of Mathonwy wrote: It will take a while before we can distinguish between countries such as the UK, France, Italy, Sweden, and the USA.
It will take a while before we can distinguish between countries such as South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
But we've already had enough time to distinguish between these two groups and to point out which made the most "egregious mistakes".

What do you mean by multiple "waves" of this virus?
If we get the cases and deaths well down, the only reason for them rising to this kind of level again is if we mishandle the epidemic.
Its not a foregone conclusion that there will be "waves" and saying so is handing our leaders an excuse in advance.

South Korea and Singapore will not be experiencing anything other than slight ripples in their death and case rates, and that's because they're doing the right things.
Many experts are suggesting that this virus will disappear then reappear. Hence more than one wave. Part of that will be due to the virus hitting different countries at different times.

Yes South Korea took a different path and so far they are managing this well. But there have been different approaches in Europe and we will see which is the most successful.
It should really be noted that South Korea is taking a different path THIS TIME as they got it badly wrong in the past and GOT THE OPPORTUNITY TO LEARN FROM THEIR MISTAKES which is clearly not an option for anyone else. Their different path also involves an invasion of personal privacy that simply wouldn't be tolerated in pretty much any western European country, but sure, let's keep looking at stats that we are pretty sure are inaccurate and taking our direction from a press corp that we concurrently deride as being untrustworthy.

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When you discover the world of academia you're just going to lose your shit. It turns out that if you can read and are, like, an expert, or you know, have a passing interest in the well being of your nation, you can learn from what other people did. I know that sounds outlandish but it's apparently a real thing!!!
Mellsblue wrote:Interesting point from Ben Wallace re empty Nightingales. Could be used as “clean” hospitals to pick up slack for eg cancer patients, out patient appts.
It can't because it's neither equipped nor staffed to do so. It is equipped for respiratory illness. That's why it can't take cases with co-morbidities.
Banquo wrote:Been reluctant to dive into this, but I am privy to some briefings which you might find interesting- and which aren't just 'spin', as it also chimes with the reality being observed by my redeployed staff working in ICU's and community in my patch. This was as of 1pm yesterday- and is big picture.

On PPE- big concern is a specific use gown (see shipment from Turkey), and there are enough at the moment. Ample supplies currently of everything else, though extending the supply chain from 233 to 30,000 has caused problems (see Army comments).
On Ventilators- there is a lot of spare capacity
On ICU beds- there remains a comfortable amount of spare capacity, though in some places staff illnesses has caused pinch points. (I do think the Nightingale (s) are likely and hopefully redundant- imo they were prepping for an Italian scenario where the seriously ill were not given active care- grim.)
On oxygen- there is plenty
On testing- more capacity than tests being taken.See 233 to 30,000 as above- Hancock will be caned in a week over his 100k a day nonsense.
One worry is muscle relaxant supplies for intubation, down the track a bit.

PM me if you want the source. This is NHSE, so doesn't cover social care mostly.

Feel free to slate the govt on strategy, especially on testing and sluggish lockdown. and even on the inability to tell the story on capacity (or spin it, ironically) But on capacity, and a capacity requirement not dreamt of until March by most (and in hindsight driven by the lockdown plan), the NHS has actually done ok to well to date- it may yet stumble, but new admissions are falling in London especially. It may not have been a perfect machine, but it was mobilised just about on time and has so far not been materially found wanting as far as I know- touch wood (and that is the issue, its not seamless).

In general, working with the NHS over the last 3 years has been very challenging in terms of urgency and attitude, but whilst not being perfect at all here (there clearly was a need for regional strategies and cancelling everything to prepare for this was patently OTT in some areas), they have found ways to cope in very difficult circumstances. My one massive criticism on the ground is how they have treated some vulnerable staff, but that's more local management idiocy.

Personally think the issues not being really discussed are how we are dealing with very ill patients, and whether we are catching patients early enough to give them a chance to recover with assistance-- Boris was lucky, and he'd been tested positive. There is quite an issue with test reliability as well- up to 30% false negatives for patients between 4-7 days infection, its a big deal and the Germans first reported it.
I don't doubt that the NHS has created capacity for Covid. But some of the ways that has done that is by, for example halting cancer treatments. If we had created capacity earlier and indeed if we had carried something like spare capacity then perhaps those people could have continued treatment and we might not have a massive spike in other deaths.
I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed person.

NS. Gone but not forgotten.
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Mellsblue
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Re: COVID19

Post by Mellsblue »

morepork wrote:They stay home and are still testing at high capacity. Maybe they have a well-coordinated central command. Maybe they have a well-drilled pandemic disaster plan. Maybe they are just fucking German.


Maybe all of the above. A comprehensive response requires all of the above. What is to be gained from looking at each variable in isolation at the moment?
Your agreeing with me but coming at it from a different angle. A lot of what I have read is that the German’s are doing better predominantly/mostly/solely because of their testing regime. If the tests are flawed this can’t be true and we may be in danger of learning the wrong lessons.
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Mellsblue
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Re: RE: Re: COVID19

Post by Mellsblue »

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:
Donny osmond wrote:
Sandydragon wrote: Many experts are suggesting that this virus will disappear then reappear. Hence more than one wave. Part of that will be due to the virus hitting different countries at different times.

Yes South Korea took a different path and so far they are managing this well. But there have been different approaches in Europe and we will see which is the most successful.
It should really be noted that South Korea is taking a different path THIS TIME as they got it badly wrong in the past and GOT THE OPPORTUNITY TO LEARN FROM THEIR MISTAKES which is clearly not an option for anyone else. Their different path also involves an invasion of personal privacy that simply wouldn't be tolerated in pretty much any western European country, but sure, let's keep looking at stats that we are pretty sure are inaccurate and taking our direction from a press corp that we concurrently deride as being untrustworthy.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk
When you discover the world of academia you're just going to lose your shit. It turns out that if you can read and are, like, an expert, or you know, have a passing interest in the well being of your nation, you can learn from what other people did. I know that sounds outlandish but it's apparently a real thing!!!
Mellsblue wrote:Interesting point from Ben Wallace re empty Nightingales. Could be used as “clean” hospitals to pick up slack for eg cancer patients, out patient appts.
It can't because it's neither equipped nor staffed to do so. It is equipped for respiratory illness. That's why it can't take cases with co-morbidities.
Banquo wrote:Been reluctant to dive into this, but I am privy to some briefings which you might find interesting- and which aren't just 'spin', as it also chimes with the reality being observed by my redeployed staff working in ICU's and community in my patch. This was as of 1pm yesterday- and is big picture.

On PPE- big concern is a specific use gown (see shipment from Turkey), and there are enough at the moment. Ample supplies currently of everything else, though extending the supply chain from 233 to 30,000 has caused problems (see Army comments).
On Ventilators- there is a lot of spare capacity
On ICU beds- there remains a comfortable amount of spare capacity, though in some places staff illnesses has caused pinch points. (I do think the Nightingale (s) are likely and hopefully redundant- imo they were prepping for an Italian scenario where the seriously ill were not given active care- grim.)
On oxygen- there is plenty
On testing- more capacity than tests being taken.See 233 to 30,000 as above- Hancock will be caned in a week over his 100k a day nonsense.
One worry is muscle relaxant supplies for intubation, down the track a bit.

PM me if you want the source. This is NHSE, so doesn't cover social care mostly.

Feel free to slate the govt on strategy, especially on testing and sluggish lockdown. and even on the inability to tell the story on capacity (or spin it, ironically) But on capacity, and a capacity requirement not dreamt of until March by most (and in hindsight driven by the lockdown plan), the NHS has actually done ok to well to date- it may yet stumble, but new admissions are falling in London especially. It may not have been a perfect machine, but it was mobilised just about on time and has so far not been materially found wanting as far as I know- touch wood (and that is the issue, its not seamless).

In general, working with the NHS over the last 3 years has been very challenging in terms of urgency and attitude, but whilst not being perfect at all here (there clearly was a need for regional strategies and cancelling everything to prepare for this was patently OTT in some areas), they have found ways to cope in very difficult circumstances. My one massive criticism on the ground is how they have treated some vulnerable staff, but that's more local management idiocy.

Personally think the issues not being really discussed are how we are dealing with very ill patients, and whether we are catching patients early enough to give them a chance to recover with assistance-- Boris was lucky, and he'd been tested positive. There is quite an issue with test reliability as well- up to 30% false negatives for patients between 4-7 days infection, its a big deal and the Germans first reported it.
I don't doubt that the NHS has created capacity for Covid. But some of the ways that has done that is by, for example halting cancer treatments. If we had created capacity earlier and indeed if we had carried something like spare capacity then perhaps those people could have continued treatment and we might not have a massive spike in other deaths.
I’m sure it can be repurposed if it’s initial use is no longer required. It could be used for chemotherapy outpatients etc.
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Eugene Wrayburn
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Re: COVID19

Post by Eugene Wrayburn »

Why are you sure? Where is the staff going to come from? Or the equipment?
I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed person.

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Eugene Wrayburn
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Re: COVID19

Post by Eugene Wrayburn »

And if it can suddenly find the staff and equipment, it seems to me more sensible to take the people with co-morbidities that it's currently turning down.
I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed person.

NS. Gone but not forgotten.
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Re: COVID19

Post by canta_brian »

Mellsblue wrote:Interesting point from Ben Wallace re empty Nightingales. Could be used as “clean” hospitals to pick up slack for eg cancer patients, out patient appts.
Does it not make more sense to go the other way? Move many more covid patients away from “normal” hospitals that are set up to do their every day work.
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Mellsblue
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Re: COVID19

Post by Mellsblue »

Why are you sure it can’t? Perhaps it will start taking the patients you describe. If equipment is currently lying idle as treatment is stopped in core hospitals, I’m sure it can be moved to the Nightingales. As COVID numbers fall more staff will be come available. The critical word is “clean”. Cancer treatments have been halted in some circumstances because the risk of infection not because of staff numbers. This is also true of other patients with other ailments/illnesses. Hence “clean” hospital. They were initially built to help if ICU were overwhelmed. As that’s no longer looking like it will happen it could be repurposed. Exactly what for is not for me to say.
Last edited by Mellsblue on Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Mellsblue
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Re: COVID19

Post by Mellsblue »

canta_brian wrote:
Mellsblue wrote:Interesting point from Ben Wallace re empty Nightingales. Could be used as “clean” hospitals to pick up slack for eg cancer patients, out patient appts.
Does it not make more sense to go the other way? Move many more covid patients away from “normal” hospitals that are set up to do their every day work.
No idea. I’ll leave that to the experts.
Donny osmond
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: COVID19

Post by Donny osmond »

Mellsblue wrote:
Donny osmond wrote:
Banquo wrote:Been reluctant to dive into this, but I am privy to some briefings which you might find interesting- and which aren't just 'spin', as it also chimes with the reality being observed by my redeployed staff working in ICU's and community in my patch. This was as of 1pm yesterday- and is big picture.

On PPE- big concern is a specific use gown (see shipment from Turkey), and there are enough at the moment. Ample supplies currently of everything else, though extending the supply chain from 233 to 30,000 has caused problems (see Army comments).
On Ventilators- there is a lot of spare capacity
On ICU beds- there remains a comfortable amount of spare capacity, though in some places staff illnesses has caused pinch points. (I do think the Nightingale (s) are likely and hopefully redundant- imo they were prepping for an Italian scenario where the seriously ill were not given active care- grim.)
On oxygen- there is plenty
On testing- more capacity than tests being taken.See 233 to 30,000 as above- Hancock will be caned in a week over his 100k a day nonsense.
One worry is muscle relaxant supplies for intubation, down the track a bit.

PM me if you want the source. This is NHSE, so doesn't cover social care mostly.

Feel free to slate the govt on strategy, especially on testing and sluggish lockdown. and even on the inability to tell the story on capacity (or spin it, ironically) But on capacity, and a capacity requirement not dreamt of until March by most (and in hindsight driven by the lockdown plan), the NHS has actually done ok to well to date- it may yet stumble, but new admissions are falling in London especially. It may not have been a perfect machine, but it was mobilised just about on time and has so far not been materially found wanting as far as I know- touch wood (and that is the issue, its not seamless).

In general, working with the NHS over the last 3 years has been very challenging in terms of urgency and attitude, but whilst not being perfect at all here (there clearly was a need for regional strategies and cancelling everything to prepare for this was patently OTT in some areas), they have found ways to cope in very difficult circumstances. My one massive criticism on the ground is how they have treated some vulnerable staff, but that's more local management idiocy.

Personally think the issues not being really discussed are how we are dealing with very ill patients, and whether we are catching patients early enough to give them a chance to recover with assistance-- Boris was lucky, and he'd been tested positive. There is quite an issue with test reliability as well- up to 30% false negatives for patients between 4-7 days infection, its a big deal and the Germans first reported it.
Good post, thanks

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It was so much easier to blame Them. It was bleakly depressing to think They were Us. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: COVID19

Post by Donny osmond »

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:
Donny osmond wrote:
It should really be noted that South Korea is taking a different path THIS TIME as they got it badly wrong in the past and GOT THE OPPORTUNITY TO LEARN FROM THEIR MISTAKES which is clearly not an option for anyone else. Their different path also involves an invasion of personal privacy that simply wouldn't be tolerated in pretty much any western European country, but sure, let's keep looking at stats that we are pretty sure are inaccurate and taking our direction from a press corp that we concurrently deride as being untrustworthy.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk
When you discover the world of academia you're just going to lose your shit. It turns out that if you can read and are, like, an expert, or you know, have a passing interest in the well being of your nation, you can learn from what other people did. I know that sounds outlandish but it's apparently a real thing!!!
.
Yes, yes, famously, outside of the awful UK, once a mistake has been made once, anywhere in the world, it is never ever made again anywhere. In fact ,forget about mistakes. Once one person learns something, everyone knows it from then on. This is why there is such an unquestionable global consensus on everything.

Ironically, I am currently inside the world of academia and, get ready, it is full to the brim of people making the same mistakes over and over again!!!

Woah, I know, right, heavy shit.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk
It was so much easier to blame Them. It was bleakly depressing to think They were Us. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.
Banquo
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Re: COVID19

Post by Banquo »

morepork wrote:
Mellsblue wrote:So, testing not the panacea, as so widely stated? Why are ze German deaths so much lower? A combo of both ICU treatment pathway and testing?

That's a little glib. The need for testing has not changed one bit.
No, but it needs consistency and better accuracy if mass testing is part of the strategy, as it has to be. WHO must have some role to play here.
Banquo
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Re: RE: Re: COVID19

Post by Banquo »

Eugene Wrayburn wrote: I don't doubt that the NHS has created capacity for Covid. But some of the ways that has done that is by, for example halting cancer treatments. If we had created capacity earlier and indeed if we had carried something like spare capacity then perhaps those people could have continued treatment and we might not have a massive spike in other deaths.
Plenty of people have doubted it and publicly, and it is the biggest stick to hit the govt with- and its been no mean feat, despite the apparent ease that some folks have ascribed to it, as it is adding significant extra capacity into the system (PPE being the obvious example) and the scale is huge. My point is that it isn;t the stick I'd choose.

I did point out after the factual part that imo the strategy has not really had enough nuance, especially at a regional level, where some 'bau' work could (and in fact has in our and other cases) have been carried on- I've redployed 60% of my clinical staff into acutes and community hospital, the rest are 'socially distanced and are running video and phone consultations (its not ideal, but it picks up the red flags and keeps patients mobile and on the right road). Each CGG has however been tasked to run a remote set of services where possible, and all are consciously trying to manage existing case loads. Whether individuals receive treatment is dependent on the risk to said patient- and I know that clear guidance exists out there. Cancer treatments have not stopped where I am, but some operations have been postponed because of risk to the patient-- difficult choices are being made.

I'm not sure - as I'm not a health economist or planner-its realistic to run at a capacity that absorbs this and doesn't present difficult clinical choices. I'm also not sure- genuinely so, as to what precisely the spike in deaths can be ascribed to. I'd also like to see what has happened in the other health systems.
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Re: COVID19

Post by Which Tyler »

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Eugene Wrayburn
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Re: COVID19

Post by Eugene Wrayburn »

It's fair to say that that no one knows exactly what the spike is due to yet. But whilst correlation is not causation, everyone expected a rise in "other" deaths as the NHS switched focus and staff elsewhere. And lo and behold we have just such a rise. I'd be surprised if there weren't also some undiagnosed covid19 deaths in there as well. So 2 obvious and logical causes, much predicted as the crisis started, and an absence of obvious other candidates.
I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed person.

NS. Gone but not forgotten.
Digby
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Re: COVID19

Post by Digby »

Puja wrote:
Digby wrote:
Puja wrote:
Out of interest, are you black?

Puja
No, but to expand I'm not fussed about someone black using white makeup. I am a little concerned about the Michael Jackson approach to not having a black face, and I am concerned about the whitening lotions one founds around the world, not so common here but very common in places like India.

You're drastically missing the cultural context. Things like blackface aren't bad because people are being greedy about their cultural heritage and want to stop people from using them, they're bad because historically they have been used to be racist, to promote racist stereotypes, or at the very, very best to make a joke out of pretending not to be a privileged white person. If there was no history of slavery, segregation, racism, systematic abuse and persecution in the world, then it would just be makeup. However, there is, so it isn't.

Also, giving permission for white makeup to be used is a massive false equivalence. There's no history of black on white systemic racism (in any of the countries any of us hail from) - we are not the butt of the joke. In fact, as you've noted, there's cultures where people bleach and lighten their skin because whiteness is valued higher (hooray Empire) and to be whiter is to gain societal and social benefits.

Puja
If the context of people doing something is racist I'd be against it, but I might not want it banned depending on exactly what it is, I don't have to like it to think a certain amount of freedom of expression is more important than banning things I don't like. And too Blackface needn't as a for instance have anything to do with race, nobody really knows whether the many mining communities who've been doing blackface for centuries made that even so common because it's what miners look like returning to the surface of because they'd seen people of a different hue.

Also saying I'm not fussed if someone black paints themselves white is treating people equally, I don't have much truck for the idea we promote equality by saying we need to treat people differently. And of course if someone is offended so what, people don't have a right not to be offended.
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Re: COVID19

Post by morepork »

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:It's fair to say that that no one knows exactly what the spike is due to yet. But whilst correlation is not causation, everyone expected a rise in "other" deaths as the NHS switched focus and staff elsewhere. And lo and behold we have just such a rise. I'd be surprised if there weren't also some undiagnosed covid19 deaths in there as well. So 2 obvious and logical causes, much predicted as the crisis started, and an absence of obvious other candidates.

I'm still struggling with the concept of people not seeing just how obvious that association is. I
Banquo
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Re: COVID19

Post by Banquo »

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:It's fair to say that that no one knows exactly what the spike is due to yet. But whilst correlation is not causation, everyone expected a rise in "other" deaths as the NHS switched focus and staff elsewhere. And lo and behold we have just such a rise. I'd be surprised if there weren't also some undiagnosed covid19 deaths in there as well. So 2 obvious and logical causes, much predicted as the crisis started, and an absence of obvious other candidates.
I was using latest reported aseasonal spike as shorthand, apologies for being imprecise. And I meant actual causes- that bears analysis in my view rather than the obvious logical correlation. I'm not denying the obvious, but the specifics are important- eg if you think you are having a heart attack, ffs ring an ambulance.
Last edited by Banquo on Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Banquo
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Re: COVID19

Post by Banquo »

morepork wrote:
Eugene Wrayburn wrote:It's fair to say that that no one knows exactly what the spike is due to yet. But whilst correlation is not causation, everyone expected a rise in "other" deaths as the NHS switched focus and staff elsewhere. And lo and behold we have just such a rise. I'd be surprised if there weren't also some undiagnosed covid19 deaths in there as well. So 2 obvious and logical causes, much predicted as the crisis started, and an absence of obvious other candidates.

I'm still struggling with the concept of people not seeing just how obvious that association is. I
Not sure anyone is, but it should be analysed anyway.
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Eugene Wrayburn
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Re: COVID19

Post by Eugene Wrayburn »

Banquo wrote:
morepork wrote:
Mellsblue wrote:So, testing not the panacea, as so widely stated? Why are ze German deaths so much lower? A combo of both ICU treatment pathway and testing?

That's a little glib. The need for testing has not changed one bit.
No, but it needs consistency and better accuracy if mass testing is part of the strategy, as it has to be. WHO must have some role to play here.
It doesn't seem to NEED better accuracy, as Germany and South Korea seem to have shown. Testing isn't an end in itself but enables tracking and tracing. If you have a false positive and no one that person has had contact with has been infected, then if you've geared up testing enough then you might have spare to test again.
I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed person.

NS. Gone but not forgotten.
Banquo
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Re: COVID19

Post by Banquo »

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:
Banquo wrote:
morepork wrote:

That's a little glib. The need for testing has not changed one bit.
No, but it needs consistency and better accuracy if mass testing is part of the strategy, as it has to be. WHO must have some role to play here.
It doesn't seem to NEED better accuracy, as Germany and South Korea seem to have shown. Testing isn't an end in itself but enables tracking and tracing. If you have a false positive and no one that person has had contact with has been infected, then if you've geared up testing enough then you might have spare to test again.
If you have a false negative, you may end up dead as well as infecting more people. As is being seen.

Why wouldn't you strive to make it accurate in any case?
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Eugene Wrayburn
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: COVID19

Post by Eugene Wrayburn »

Donny osmond wrote:
Eugene Wrayburn wrote:
Donny osmond wrote:
It should really be noted that South Korea is taking a different path THIS TIME as they got it badly wrong in the past and GOT THE OPPORTUNITY TO LEARN FROM THEIR MISTAKES which is clearly not an option for anyone else. Their different path also involves an invasion of personal privacy that simply wouldn't be tolerated in pretty much any western European country, but sure, let's keep looking at stats that we are pretty sure are inaccurate and taking our direction from a press corp that we concurrently deride as being untrustworthy.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk
When you discover the world of academia you're just going to lose your shit. It turns out that if you can read and are, like, an expert, or you know, have a passing interest in the well being of your nation, you can learn from what other people did. I know that sounds outlandish but it's apparently a real thing!!!
.
Yes, yes, famously, outside of the awful UK, once a mistake has been made once, anywhere in the world, it is never ever made again anywhere. In fact ,forget about mistakes. Once one person learns something, everyone knows it from then on. This is why there is such an unquestionable global consensus on everything.

Ironically, I am currently inside the world of academia and, get ready, it is full to the brim of people making the same mistakes over and over again!!!

Woah, I know, right, heavy shit.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk
Certainly people make mistakes as our government seem determined to show. But to say that learning from South Korea's previous mistakes (or current example) was impossible for anyone else is asinine.
Banquo wrote:
Eugene Wrayburn wrote:
Banquo wrote: No, but it needs consistency and better accuracy if mass testing is part of the strategy, as it has to be. WHO must have some role to play here.
It doesn't seem to NEED better accuracy, as Germany and South Korea seem to have shown. Testing isn't an end in itself but enables tracking and tracing. If you have a false positive and no one that person has had contact with has been infected, then if you've geared up testing enough then you might have spare to test again.
If you have a false negative, you may end up dead as well as infecting more people. As is being seen.
I'm not saying that it has no effect! It's just that it's possible to do much with even inaccurate tests. If they really are showing an error rate of 30% it makes what Germany and South Korea have achieved all the more remarkable.
I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed person.

NS. Gone but not forgotten.
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Mellsblue
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Re: COVID19

Post by Mellsblue »

What an absolute sh!t show:

CORONAVIRUS
Masks and gowns scarce in ‘Wild West’ world market
It was reported yesterday that a delivery of 750,000 Chinese-made masks to a Birmingham-based wholesaler had been sent to Italy
It was reported yesterday that a delivery of 750,000 Chinese-made masks to a Birmingham-based wholesaler had been sent to Italy

Billy Kenber | Kieran Andrews, Scottish Political Editor

Wednesday April 22 2020, 12.01am, The Times

Efforts to buy personal protective equipment abroad are being hampered by a “Wild West” of price gouging by manufacturers and countries requisitioning supplies.

Andrew Pear, chief executive of Reliance Medical, a supplier in Staffordshire, said that prices had gone “through the roof” amid fierce competition. Surgical masks that would have cost 2p were being offered for 25p and more advanced masks were being sold for more than £5 each when they “normally would be way less than 50p”.

“These products are being traded and then traded again,” he said. “There are some people making an awful lot of money out there on this.”

Sam Gompels, owner of a healthcare wholesaler in Wiltshire, encountered problems with an order placed with five glove factories in China who had been a supplier for several years. The order was due to be dispatched this week and when the firm inquired, it was “asked what price would we like to pay in order to get our order released”, he said.

The NHS has found itself being outbid by other countries after believing it had secured an order and has also had problems with supplies that fail safety checks or arrive in reduced quantities.


One NHS source likened the market for protective equipment to the Wild West, and Paul Reid, chief executive of the Irish Health Service Executive, described it as “modern-day piracy”.

Procurement efforts are also being impeded by strict controls or bans on PPE exports. A French manufacturer was stopped from providing millions of masks despite the UK being the first customer to place an order. The French government requisitioned all PPE supplies made by Vlamy SAS and has banned their export until the start of June. Trucks carrying masks for use in the NHS were turned back at the border last month and a Luton warehouse owned by the company cannot restock.

After the delivery failed to arrive as ministers expected on Sunday, Turkish sources told Middle East Eye that the company had only 2,500 gowns to offer.

The sources also said that the firm had not applied for an exemption from the country’s ban on exports of medical goods but that an export exemption had been granted after the UK government sent a diplomatic note to Ankara.

It was reported yesterday that a delivery of 750,000 Chinese-made masks to a Birmingham wholesaler had been sent to Italy.


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mask ... -kc8526csw
Donny osmond
Posts: 3162
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:58 pm

Re: RE: Re: COVID19

Post by Donny osmond »

Mellsblue wrote:What an absolute sh!t show:

CORONAVIRUS
Masks and gowns scarce in ‘Wild West’ world market
It was reported yesterday that a delivery of 750,000 Chinese-made masks to a Birmingham-based wholesaler had been sent to Italy
It was reported yesterday that a delivery of 750,000 Chinese-made masks to a Birmingham-based wholesaler had been sent to Italy

Billy Kenber | Kieran Andrews, Scottish Political Editor

Wednesday April 22 2020, 12.01am, The Times

Efforts to buy personal protective equipment abroad are being hampered by a “Wild West” of price gouging by manufacturers and countries requisitioning supplies.

Andrew Pear, chief executive of Reliance Medical, a supplier in Staffordshire, said that prices had gone “through the roof” amid fierce competition. Surgical masks that would have cost 2p were being offered for 25p and more advanced masks were being sold for more than £5 each when they “normally would be way less than 50p”.

“These products are being traded and then traded again,” he said. “There are some people making an awful lot of money out there on this.”

Sam Gompels, owner of a healthcare wholesaler in Wiltshire, encountered problems with an order placed with five glove factories in China who had been a supplier for several years. The order was due to be dispatched this week and when the firm inquired, it was “asked what price would we like to pay in order to get our order released”, he said.

The NHS has found itself being outbid by other countries after believing it had secured an order and has also had problems with supplies that fail safety checks or arrive in reduced quantities.


One NHS source likened the market for protective equipment to the Wild West, and Paul Reid, chief executive of the Irish Health Service Executive, described it as “modern-day piracy”.

Procurement efforts are also being impeded by strict controls or bans on PPE exports. A French manufacturer was stopped from providing millions of masks despite the UK being the first customer to place an order. The French government requisitioned all PPE supplies made by Vlamy SAS and has banned their export until the start of June. Trucks carrying masks for use in the NHS were turned back at the border last month and a Luton warehouse owned by the company cannot restock.

After the delivery failed to arrive as ministers expected on Sunday, Turkish sources told Middle East Eye that the company had only 2,500 gowns to offer.

The sources also said that the firm had not applied for an exemption from the country’s ban on exports of medical goods but that an export exemption had been granted after the UK government sent a diplomatic note to Ankara.

It was reported yesterday that a delivery of 750,000 Chinese-made masks to a Birmingham wholesaler had been sent to Italy.


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mask ... -kc8526csw
Chinese, man, they're declaring war on us

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk
It was so much easier to blame Them. It was bleakly depressing to think They were Us. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.
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