If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Zhivago]

Wild. Makes absolutely no sense to me. Even if he's worried that it's not going well enough, surely you can't stop a coup halfway and expect to survive? You come for the king, you'd best not miss, etc.

Puja

It is insane.

[Sandydragon]

Prigozin knows he has fucked up here. So there’s a few options for the future.

Putin decides to be unforgiving. Wagner closes ranks and it’s a tense stand-off between thousands of armed men near the Ukrainian border.

Putin decides to be somewhat forgiving of the rank and file and Wagner give up Prigozin. The latter is then fucked good and proper. Wagner rank and file get some kind of assimilation into the Russian army or are disbanded.

Putin pretends to let bygones be bygones and things carry on as normal. In 6 months Prigozin has an unforeseen tragic accident.

If Prigozin thinks he’s dead anyway then he might decide just to resist. But he must know now that he’s in deep shit. I think Putin will want to focus the military attention on Ukraine again ASAP which might mean that Putin suggest Prigozin steps down and goes into luxurious exile somewhere.

But this is a classic example of going off half cocked without properly preparing.

[Which Tyler]

I can only think they expected more of the Russian military to join them, rather than just stand aside.

Jeff Prigozhin had better steer clear of windows for a while now - assuming the FSB will be that subtle in his case.

[Sandydragon]

BBC reporting that Putin is being conciliatory towards the Wagner fighters and Prigozin is going to move to Belarus. Perhaps that was the important intervention by the dictator there, giving Prigozin a way out. Although if I were him then I wouldn’t be sleeping soundly again

[Son of Mathonwy]

Wild. Makes absolutely no sense to me. Even if he's worried that it's not going well enough, surely you can't stop a coup halfway and expect to survive? You come for the king, you'd best not miss, etc.

Puja

It is insane.

When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die.

You can't take back a march on Moscow.

Putin is considerably weakened but Prigozin is not long for this world.

[Sandydragon]

Wild. Makes absolutely no sense to me. Even if he's worried that it's not going well enough, surely you can't stop a coup halfway and expect to survive? You come for the king, you'd best not miss, etc.

Puja

It is insane.

When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die.

You can't take back a march on Moscow.

Putin is considerably weakened but Prigozin is not long for this world.

Some media have the opinion that the fel smells very fishy, perhaps suggesting that the whole thing was stage managed. If so, who benefits? Not Putin who has been hugely undermined. Not the Russian military who didn’t do a lot to stop the progress of the convoy north. And why would Putin make a public speech denouncing the mutineers as traitors?

The only explanation that makes sense is that Prigozhin has vet estimated his support and drew back when it became clear he was about to cross a huge red line. Putin was merciful because he has to be in order to peel away the Wagner fighters. Prigozhin is off to Belarus, but we don’t know in what capacity.

I suppose we can only hope that Prigozhins revelation that the basis of the special military operation was just bullshit has some impact.

[Puja]

It is insane.

When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die.

You can't take back a march on Moscow.

Putin is considerably weakened but Prigozin is not long for this world.

Some media have the opinion that the fel smells very fishy, perhaps suggesting that the whole thing was stage managed. If so, who benefits? Not Putin who has been hugely undermined. Not the Russian military who didn’t do a lot to stop the progress of the convoy north. And why would Putin make a public speech denouncing the mutineers as traitors?

The only explanation that makes sense is that Prigozhin has vet estimated his support and drew back when it became clear he was about to cross a huge red line. Putin was merciful because he has to be in order to peel away the Wagner fighters. Prigozhin is off to Belarus, but we don’t know in what capacity.

I suppose we can only hope that Prigozhins revelation that the basis of the special military operation was just bullshit has some impact.

I've heard rumour that he was captured by his own men and forced to negotiate and I wonder whether the Russians very publically seizing $36m of Wagner cash might've had something to do with that. He's only the guy that pays your salary if he can, you know, actually pay your salary.

Puja

[Zhivago]

It is insane.

When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die.

You can't take back a march on Moscow.

Putin is considerably weakened but Prigozin is not long for this world.

Some media have the opinion that the fel smells very fishy, perhaps suggesting that the whole thing was stage managed. If so, who benefits? Not Putin who has been hugely undermined. Not the Russian military who didn’t do a lot to stop the progress of the convoy north. And why would Putin make a public speech denouncing the mutineers as traitors?

The only explanation that makes sense is that Prigozhin has vet estimated his support and drew back when it became clear he was about to cross a huge red line. Putin was merciful because he has to be in order to peel away the Wagner fighters. Prigozhin is off to Belarus, but we don’t know in what capacity.

I suppose we can only hope that Prigozhins revelation that the basis of the special military operation was just bullshit has some impact.

The notion that Russians don't understand that it is a war of aggression by them is nonsense.

[Sandydragon]

When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die.

You can't take back a march on Moscow.

Putin is considerably weakened but Prigozin is not long for this world.

Some media have the opinion that the fel smells very fishy, perhaps suggesting that the whole thing was stage managed. If so, who benefits? Not Putin who has been hugely undermined. Not the Russian military who didn’t do a lot to stop the progress of the convoy north. And why would Putin make a public speech denouncing the mutineers as traitors?

The only explanation that makes sense is that Prigozhin has vet estimated his support and drew back when it became clear he was about to cross a huge red line. Putin was merciful because he has to be in order to peel away the Wagner fighters. Prigozhin is off to Belarus, but we don’t know in what capacity.

I suppose we can only hope that Prigozhins revelation that the basis of the special military operation was just bullshit has some impact.

The notion that Russians don't understand that it is a war of aggression by them is nonsense.

Depends on where they get their news. The idea of an attack from the west isn’t a new one for Russia. I doubt it will be decisive but it won’t be helping morale one jot.

[Puja]

Some media have the opinion that the fel smells very fishy, perhaps suggesting that the whole thing was stage managed. If so, who benefits? Not Putin who has been hugely undermined. Not the Russian military who didn’t do a lot to stop the progress of the convoy north. And why would Putin make a public speech denouncing the mutineers as traitors?

The only explanation that makes sense is that Prigozhin has vet estimated his support and drew back when it became clear he was about to cross a huge red line. Putin was merciful because he has to be in order to peel away the Wagner fighters. Prigozhin is off to Belarus, but we don’t know in what capacity.

I suppose we can only hope that Prigozhins revelation that the basis of the special military operation was just bullshit has some impact.

The notion that Russians don't understand that it is a war of aggression by them is nonsense.

Depends on where they get their news. The idea of an attack from the west isn’t a new one for Russia. I doubt it will be decisive but it won’t be helping morale one jot.

Agreed - they're in a tightly controlled infosphere and I can see it being entirely plausible that people believe in there being Nazis and genocides of Russian speakers there, and that any other reports are just bias from countries that hate Russia. Hells, look at the USA - half their population genuinely believes the alternative universe that Fox and OAN pump out and they've actually got other media outlets they could get info from.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

The Prevail Partners view of what’s happened and what happens next.

Prigozhin’s Armed Rebellion: ​ Why did it fail, why did it almost succeed, and what are the implications?
26 June

This paper is a strawman intended to generate discussion and thinking. Many commentators and experts may disagree with all or at least parts of the strawman; however, its purpose is not to foretell the future but outline some factors that led to the failure, why it almost succeeded and potential implications. ​ ​

Why did the rebellion fail? ​

Prigozhin needed either direct support or a policy of non-intervention from enough of the Russian Security Forces between Rostov on Don and the Kremlin for the rebellion to succeed. It is likely that Prigozhin expected to gain the allegiance of senior Russian officers and military personnel and it is conceivable that he received plenty of indications of support from senior leaders for his narrative about failed leadership of the Ukraine War. However, this expectation received a major blow when the Wagner-affiliated Army General Sergei Surovikin condemned Prigozhin’s call for an armed rebellion. Furthermore, Putin’s public statement was a show of strength and may have been enough to draw people back to him. And Putin comparing Prigozhin’s rebellion to the 1917 Russian Revolution, warning of a repeat of such events, may also have deterred vacillating officers. So, it is likely that, despite probable support from within the Kremlin for Prigozhin’s building narrative, he miscalculated how much of this support would transfer into support for the armed rebellion. As a result, he failed to gain enough support to ensure his force would reach the Kremlin unmolested.

Why did it almost succeed? ​

Prigozhin met little initial resistance for the distance he advanced. This advance highlighted Russia’s lack of capability to promptly deploy forces to counter threats. This lack of capability is likely to be a combination of poor decision making which could indicate that some decision-makers wavered in whom to support and the degradation of Russian reserve units that are held back in Russia. It should also be noted that even though Russian authorities mobilised the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) they were highly ineffective. The Rosgvardia, whose sole purpose is to protect against internal security threats, failed to resist the armed rebellion allowing Wagner to capture critical military infrastructure in Rostov-on-Don and march towards Moscow. This will likely pose a significant worry to Putin should there be any future incidents. ​

What are the implications? ​

There are several significant implications:

Putin’s Purge?

It will be most concerning for Putin that the Kremlin was surprised by this rebellion. It is evidence that Russian Intelligence Services, despite Prigozhin’s rhetoric becoming increasingly strident, were not monitoring the potential for such a rebellion. As a result, Putin’s response is likely to be a form of violent purge. Russia’s history is replete with violent purges to address perceived threats so agents of the Kremlin will be seeking out any person who has a link to Wagner, Prigozhin and his supporters. We are likely to see changes amongst the current ‘siloviki’ who hold much of the Kremlin’s power.

Weakened Russian Army in Ukraine. ​

Regardless of the quick outcome of this rebellion, the Russian Army’s leadership in Ukraine is highly likely to be weaker; when officers should be leading, they will be looking at their backs to see whether the purge is coming their way. Moreover, the practical undermining of Wagner’s role will leave several holes in the defensive lines that will need plugging quickly. The combination will be more severe damage to the morale of the Russian Army which will provide opportunity for the Ukrainian attacking forces. ​

Circling Predators.

Prigozhin’s armed rebellion combined with Putin fleeing to St Petersburg will be interpreted as a sign of substantial weakness; as a result, Putin will no longer be considered the apex predator that he once was. It follows that life after Putin is much closer than anyone would have considered in February 2022. Individuals and groups from the current siloviki, and oligarchs, will be calculating if and when to challenge the current status quo using their positions of power and wealth to construct potential allies for a future attempt to overthrow Putin.

The Russian People. ​

The implications for Putin will lead to a climate of fear for the population of Russia. ​ An increase in visible security presence, including checkpoints where papers will be studied, is highly likely. People perceived to be aligned to Prigozhin, or other potential competitors, will be arrested and interrogated. And the performance of the Russian Army in Ukraine is likely to be worse resulting in even greater casualties. It is possible that this rebellion gives Putin more reason to call for a general mobilisation of people and the economy for the war. And it is possible that people connected to the West will be targeted to build a narrative that ‘Western interference’ was to blame for the rebellion – a false narrative often used by despots and dictators when there is trouble at home.

Russia’s Autonomous Republics.

The Russian Federation is, in effect, an empire made up of 22 nominally autonomous republics that are home to specific ethnicities. Those that border China, may start to look towards Beijing for support which would be an extremely dangerous scenario for the Russian Federation. In theory, these Republics have rights to hold a referendum on whether they remain in the Federation; in practice, this is a massive step but given the current fracturing of Putin’s power, combined with an enfeebled military, it cannot be ruled out.

Ukraine. ​

Ukraine will have a weaker army to fight; however, expelling the invading Russians completely will remain a very daunting task. Politically, some of the nations who are supporting Putin may switch their allegiance or, at the very least, become more neutral. There may be a window of opportunity for Ukraine’s diplomats to engage with these countries and persuade them to switch sides. ​

The West. ​

The West will be incredibly careful to avoid any action that can be perceived or portrayed as interfering in the internal affairs of Russia. Owing to the risks falling out from an unstable Russian Federation, ranging from unsecured nuclear weapons to regional conflict, any potential diplomatic, or other response options, will be kept under constant review.

The Big One - Collapse of the Russian Federation. ​

Empires fall when crisis hits and the Emperor is unable to respond. The population in the centre of the empire, in this case Russia itself, become more interested in wealth and power whereas the fringes become more restive. As outlined above, Putin and his Kremlin are severely weakened; their security forces are reduced and committed in Ukraine, so the centrifugal forces holding the vastness of the Russian Federation together are weaker than ever. As a result, although unlikely, this scenario merits consideration and contingency planning.

[morepork]

So many stupid men making so many stupid decisions that affect so many. Just fuck this.

[Mellsblue]

Harsh. I think you mods are doing ok.

[morepork]

Ha!


(fuck you buddy)

[Son of Mathonwy]

The notion that Russians don't understand that it is a war of aggression by them is nonsense.

Depends on where they get their news. The idea of an attack from the west isn’t a new one for Russia. I doubt it will be decisive but it won’t be helping morale one jot.

Agreed - they're in a tightly controlled infosphere and I can see it being entirely plausible that people believe in there being Nazis and genocides of Russian speakers there, and that any other reports are just bias from countries that hate Russia. Hells, look at the USA - half their population genuinely believes the alternative universe that Fox and OAN pump out and they've actually got other media outlets they could get info from.

Puja

There's a limit on how much slack we can cut the public for being misinformed. Maybe if they're young and naive, but anyone over ~25 really should question why their country is invading a country that isn't threatening them, whether it's Ukraine or Iraq or whatever.

[Puja]

Depends on where they get their news. The idea of an attack from the west isn’t a new one for Russia. I doubt it will be decisive but it won’t be helping morale one jot.

Agreed - they're in a tightly controlled infosphere and I can see it being entirely plausible that people believe in there being Nazis and genocides of Russian speakers there, and that any other reports are just bias from countries that hate Russia. Hells, look at the USA - half their population genuinely believes the alternative universe that Fox and OAN pump out and they've actually got other media outlets they could get info from.

Puja

There's a limit on how much slack we can cut the public for being misinformed. Maybe if they're young and naive, but anyone over ~25 really should question why their country is invading a country that isn't threatening them, whether it's Ukraine or Iraq or whatever.

They were begged to intervene by the ethnic Russians that were being genocided by the evil Nazis. Desperate people in the independent states of Donetsk and Luhansk were being brutally slaughtered all because they wanted to be free - it's not an "invasion", it's a humanitarian mission of rescue.

It's very easy to say that you would be able to see through propaganda if you were the one locked in the bubble, but I suspect it'd be a lot harder than most people think. It's not something that only works on the stupid or gullible.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

Agreed - they're in a tightly controlled infosphere and I can see it being entirely plausible that people believe in there being Nazis and genocides of Russian speakers there, and that any other reports are just bias from countries that hate Russia. Hells, look at the USA - half their population genuinely believes the alternative universe that Fox and OAN pump out and they've actually got other media outlets they could get info from.

Puja

There's a limit on how much slack we can cut the public for being misinformed. Maybe if they're young and naive, but anyone over ~25 really should question why their country is invading a country that isn't threatening them, whether it's Ukraine or Iraq or whatever.

They were begged to intervene by the ethnic Russians that were being genocided by the evil Nazis. Desperate people in the independent states of Donetsk and Luhansk were being brutally slaughtered all because they wanted to be free - it's not an "invasion", it's a humanitarian mission of rescue.

It's very easy to say that you would be able to see through propaganda if you were the one locked in the bubble, but I suspect it'd be a lot harder than most people think. It's not something that only works on the stupid or gullible.

Puja

It's not just the stupid or gullible - it's those vain enough to think the country they happened to be born in is the best and those callous enough to ignore the slaughter of ordinary people who just happen to be foreigners.

People have a responsibility to think a little harder, not take the easy answer they've been spoonfed, particularly when decisions end the lives of thousands.

[Puja]

There's a limit on how much slack we can cut the public for being misinformed. Maybe if they're young and naive, but anyone over ~25 really should question why their country is invading a country that isn't threatening them, whether it's Ukraine or Iraq or whatever.

They were begged to intervene by the ethnic Russians that were being genocided by the evil Nazis. Desperate people in the independent states of Donetsk and Luhansk were being brutally slaughtered all because they wanted to be free - it's not an "invasion", it's a humanitarian mission of rescue.

It's very easy to say that you would be able to see through propaganda if you were the one locked in the bubble, but I suspect it'd be a lot harder than most people think. It's not something that only works on the stupid or gullible.

Puja

It's not just the stupid or gullible - it's those vain enough to think the country they happened to be born in is the best and those callous enough to ignore the slaughter of ordinary people who just happen to be foreigners.

People have a responsibility to think a little harder, not take the easy answer they've been spoonfed, particularly when decisions end the lives of thousands.

How do they know about the slaughter of ordinary people who just happen to be foreigners? "We're just fighting the Nazis who were committing a genocide - that's what every Russian language news station's said," quoth the person living in Nizhy Novgorod who only speaks Russian.

You accept easy answers for loads of things that you've been spoonfed without verifying them yourself (as do I). You're just lucky to live in a country that offers rich access to information and that a lot of the sources that you trust are generally truthful (or at least, trueful-adjacent).

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

They were begged to intervene by the ethnic Russians that were being genocided by the evil Nazis. Desperate people in the independent states of Donetsk and Luhansk were being brutally slaughtered all because they wanted to be free - it's not an "invasion", it's a humanitarian mission of rescue.

It's very easy to say that you would be able to see through propaganda if you were the one locked in the bubble, but I suspect it'd be a lot harder than most people think. It's not something that only works on the stupid or gullible.

Puja

It's not just the stupid or gullible - it's those vain enough to think the country they happened to be born in is the best and those callous enough to ignore the slaughter of ordinary people who just happen to be foreigners.

People have a responsibility to think a little harder, not take the easy answer they've been spoonfed, particularly when decisions end the lives of thousands.

How do they know about the slaughter of ordinary people who just happen to be foreigners? "We're just fighting the Nazis who were committing a genocide - that's what every Russian language news station's said," quoth the person living in Nizhy Novgorod who only speaks Russian.

You accept easy answers for loads of things that you've been spoonfed without verifying them yourself (as do I). You're just lucky to live in a country that offers rich access to information and that a lot of the sources that you trust are generally truthful (or at least, trueful-adjacent).

Puja

We're probably not going to agree on this .

My thinking is:

This is a country with a rich history of being lied to by its leaders. How can they not suspect that things aren't quite the way their state owned media present them?

People in the UK and the US are willingly taken in by lies that chime with their way of thinking, despite easy access to the truth. I suspect that's true of a lot of Putin's supporters.

There are plenty of Russians who oppose the war - how are they getting their info? The truth is there IF you want to look for it, even in Russia.

When the stakes are this high there is a moral duty to try just a little harder to check the 'facts' that are being presented. Ultimately - in the long run - it is only because of the support of the Russian people that Putin is able to do anything. That places a responsibility on the Russian people. They are not children.

[Sandydragon]

SoM, you make very good points and maybe many, most, Russians aren’t totally taken in by the government lies. But it is a criminal offence to criticise the special military operation. So it’s not just that you need to find alternative news sources and question, you also need the courage to speak out.

I’m going to assume that most people will just keep their heads down.

[Son of Mathonwy]

SoM, you make very good points and maybe many, most, Russians aren’t totally taken in by the government lies. But it is a criminal offence to criticise the special military operation. So it’s not just that you need to find alternative news sources and question, you also need the courage to speak out.

I’m going to assume that most people will just keep their heads down.

I agree. I'm not complaining about those who disagree but keep quiet. I might well do the same under that regime. It would take a lot of courage and/or foolishness to stick your head up. But the first (small) step to rebellion is silent disagreement.

I'm criticising Russians who actually agree with the war, especially the active supporters.

[Sandydragon]

One point it’s also worth making is the impact of Prighozins words on the troops. A motivated force has to believe in what it’s doing. Officers and NCOs may have doubts but they won’t be sharing them downwards.

Now Prigozin has burst that bubble and many troopers will be thinking why they are risking their lives. Morale wasn’t high to start with. It’s going to be in the toilet now.

[Zhivago]

[Zhivago]

[Zhivago]