Snap General Election called - The new UK Politics thread

[Puja]

Jesus. Yvette Cooper. I realize that she isn't in the same league as the monstrous Patel and Braverman but dear god why does someone so right-wing join the Labour party?

League tables of the criminality of foreigners by nationality. Which universe exists where this isn't a massive win for the Tories and Reform UK? How can this not fuel prejudice? How about league tables for criminality by race? That's next surely.

Even if full context is provided, eg the numbers as a proportion of that group in the UK and the same figures for UK criminals, that context will be stripped from them again when the right-wing press regurgitates them on their front pages, or when Farage, Jenrick, Badenoch and Tice use them as ammunition. The publication of these numbers, every time, will be a gift to Farage et al, and a fucking milstone around the neck of the government. They are morally and politically clueless.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... alities-uk

It's utterly mad, I can't see any logic behind that at all.

It’s an appalling idea.

First up, I don’t think most police officers record if an offender or victim is an immigrant or not, and then what their original country of origin was.

Secondly what will this show? It might demonstrate that immigrants cause less crime. Or it might show that one particular group is disproportionately offending. In which case the nutters will be out to play.

Exposing the inherent criminality of those nefarious Liechtensteiners.

I originally wrote that as a joke, trying to pick the most inoffensive nationality to declare evil, but it occurred to me while typing that there's probably so few of them in the country that it would only take a minor fluctuation of statistics to see them be either saints or the most criminal immigrants ever. Stop the Liechtenstein boats!

Puja

[Donny osmond]

It's utterly mad, I can't see any logic behind that at all.

It’s an appalling idea.

First up, I don’t think most police officers record if an offender or victim is an immigrant or not, and then what their original country of origin was.

Secondly what will this show? It might demonstrate that immigrants cause less crime. Or it might show that one particular group is disproportionately offending. In which case the nutters will be out to play.

Exposing the inherent criminality of those nefarious Liechtensteiners.
.....

Stop the Liechtenstein boats!

Puja

Surely this will unite the country?

[Son of Mathonwy]

It's utterly mad, I can't see any logic behind that at all.

It’s an appalling idea.

First up, I don’t think most police officers record if an offender or victim is an immigrant or not, and then what their original country of origin was.

Secondly what will this show? It might demonstrate that immigrants cause less crime. Or it might show that one particular group is disproportionately offending. In which case the nutters will be out to play.

Exposing the inherent criminality of those nefarious Liechtensteiners.

I originally wrote that as a joke, trying to pick the most inoffensive nationality to declare evil, but it occurred to me while typing that there's probably so few of them in the country that it would only take a minor fluctuation of statistics to see them be either saints or the most criminal immigrants ever. Stop the Liechtenstein boats!

Puja

This is a win for the far-right whatever the numbers. If there are x thousand Poles on the list the headline will be x thousand Polish criminals, no matter if x is actually a relatively low number considering how many Poles live here and/or it shows a lower ratio of criminals to noncriminals than UK nationals. And the publishing of the figures will be an excuse for the headlines to include the words 'criminal' and 'foreign' every time. It's almost like Cooper wants riots.

Where did this idea come from? Was it Cooper's brainwave - to raise her profile? Did Starmer say do something to make us look tough? Did McSweeney think this is what Farage would do - let's do it? They clearly don't understand, despite copious evidence from Europe and from the rise of Farage here, that acting like xenophobes encourages xenophobia. Whatever Starmer thinks he will achieve in five years will be torn down in a month by Farage in 2029.

[Which Tyler]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89g5xw53y2o?

My MP must be doing something right

[Which Tyler]

Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew and Jeffrey Epstein of sexual abuse, has died by suicide aged 41, her family has said

Did someone say "Dr David Kelly"?

[Son of Mathonwy]

Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew and Jeffrey Epstein of sexual abuse, has died by suicide aged 41, her family has said

Did someone say "Dr David Kelly"?

Just another one of those people who know too much about the rich and powerful, killing themselves. Nothing suspicious there.

[Sandydragon]

Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew and Jeffrey Epstein of sexual abuse, has died by suicide aged 41, her family has said

Did someone say "Dr David Kelly"?

Just another one of those people who know too much about the rich and powerful, killing themselves. Nothing suspicious there.

It seems she was a deeply troubled person (looking at her most recent media articles) so I wouldn’t rush to judgement.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew and Jeffrey Epstein of sexual abuse, has died by suicide aged 41, her family has said

Did someone say "Dr David Kelly"?

Just another one of those people who know too much about the rich and powerful, killing themselves. Nothing suspicious there.

It seems she was a deeply troubled person (looking at her most recent media articles) so I wouldn’t rush to judgement.

We'll never know but her death is very convenient for numerous rich and powerful people.

[Which Tyler]

MPs set to vote on decriminalisation of abortion in England and Wales

Labour backbenchers put forward amendment to legislation that would reform ‘archaic abortion law’

[Son of Mathonwy]

I'm trying to decide whether I want Labour to lose the Runcorn and Helsby byelection to Reform.

If Labour win they'll think they're doing okay and will continue on the same course. Which is bad for us and for them (in 2029).

If they lose, who knows what their reaction will be? Ape Reform even more? Or realize (finally) that no matter how many Faragist arguments they make they can never out-Farage Farage?

I have a horrible feeling they'll see either result as a reason to tack right.

In the end though, a loss will be undeniable evidence that they are going wrong and is more likely to lead to change (and maybe sackings) and change could be for the better. So bring on the loss.

[Donny osmond]

Well they've lost Runcorn, so what change do you want to see in Labour and do you think it will prevent results like Runcorn happening again?

[Danno]

Labour enacting policies and behaving in keeping with Labour would be a nice start

[Which Tyler]

Well they've lost Runcorn, so what change do you want to see in Labour and do you think it will prevent results like Runcorn happening again?

How about moving towards the centre ground, supporting the workers and the downtrodden - rather than trying to be Reform-Lite, now that the tories are re-continuing their attempt to be Reform-with-a-different-shade-of-blue?

Once they've moved back to the centre, then of course, my personal preference is to move to the actual left

[Sandydragon]

Just another one of those people who know too much about the rich and powerful, killing themselves. Nothing suspicious there.

It seems she was a deeply troubled person (looking at her most recent media articles) so I wouldn’t rush to judgement.

We'll never know but her death is very convenient for numerous rich and powerful people.

It would have been more convenient well before the trial.

[Sandydragon]

Well they've lost Runcorn, so what change do you want to see in Labour and do you think it will prevent results like Runcorn happening again?

How about moving towards the centre ground, supporting the workers and the downtrodden - rather than trying to be Reform-Lite, now that the tories are re-continuing their attempt to be Reform-with-a-different-shade-of-blue?

Once they've moved back to the centre, then of course, my personal preference is to move to the actual left

Farage is combining left and right wing policies, I don’t think that label is very helpful.

Labour should focus on competence. Start building the economy and have something concrete to point to. Perhaps put rejoining the EU on the table and watch the Conservatives and Reform melt down.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Well they've lost Runcorn, so what change do you want to see in Labour and do you think it will prevent results like Runcorn happening again?

How about moving towards the centre ground, supporting the workers and the downtrodden - rather than trying to be Reform-Lite, now that the tories are re-continuing their attempt to be Reform-with-a-different-shade-of-blue?

Once they've moved back to the centre, then of course, my personal preference is to move to the actual left

Farage is combining left and right wing policies, I don’t think that label is very helpful.

Labour should focus on competence. Start building the economy and have something concrete to point to. Perhaps put rejoining the EU on the table and watch the Conservatives and Reform melt down.

Labour needs to remember what it used to stand for and actually be left-wing. Make the lives of ordinary people better. Make it possible for them to live in a decent home, like it used to be. In other words, decrease inequality. This would require more progressive taxation and a move away from Thatcherism/neoliberalism. Unless ordinary voters see their lives improving they will vote for Farage and his bullshit solutions because, er, they haven't tried him yet.

This would require Starmer to stand down or completely change the people around him. He has no ideology or vision so could conceivably switch advisors and run a more left-wing government (if he thought it would be better for him). But this is unlikely. More likely he would have to stand down but this is also pretty unlikely (although a catastrophic first 10 months has made it a possibility). He might well sack Reeves, which would be a start . . . depending on who the replacement was.

On competence, I think they may be doing the best they can. I don't think joining the EU is worth the risk but they should certainly look at the single market & customs union. But Starmer is too cautious to do that.

[Banquo]

How about moving towards the centre ground, supporting the workers and the downtrodden - rather than trying to be Reform-Lite, now that the tories are re-continuing their attempt to be Reform-with-a-different-shade-of-blue?

Once they've moved back to the centre, then of course, my personal preference is to move to the actual left

Farage is combining left and right wing policies, I don’t think that label is very helpful.

Labour should focus on competence. Start building the economy and have something concrete to point to. Perhaps put rejoining the EU on the table and watch the Conservatives and Reform melt down.

.

On competence, I think they may be doing the best they can.

Is that praise or faint praise based on the competency available? (though you also say a catastrophic 10 months, so I suppose I can guess).

Whats your view on 'more progressive taxation' ...raising thresholds, raising %ages or both?

Big issue for me...nobpdy has anything like a plan. Reform have a whinge list and nothing else; Lib Dems...no idea what they actually stand for--- and yet both have done very well in these votes.

[Sandydragon]

This was always going to be a protest vote, so good for Greens, Libs and Reform. The danger is this developing narrative that Refoem are the opposition now.

I do t think a move to the left will save Labour. Not all left policies are vote winners. Farage is using the uncertainty about what reform is to pick and choose. Can Labour do the same and be left on economics and right on social matters? Will that keep core Labour voters, ie working class and left leaning professionals on track? I don’t think the latter would be happy and might look to green instead.

Their best tack is to keep to the centre and let the Tories continue to drift. Be competent and start challenging reforms policies. Now reform have so many councils there will be plenty of ammunition available to point out their flaws.

Reform are already talking about a UK DOGE effect. Let’s see how well that goes down when local services collapse. I don’t think sacking DEI officers will be that noticeable, but widespread slash and burn will.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Farage is combining left and right wing policies, I don’t think that label is very helpful.

Labour should focus on competence. Start building the economy and have something concrete to point to. Perhaps put rejoining the EU on the table and watch the Conservatives and Reform melt down.

.

On competence, I think they may be doing the best they can.

Is that praise or faint praise based on the competency available? (though you also say a catastrophic 10 months, so I suppose I can guess).

Whats your view on 'more progressive taxation' ...raising thresholds, raising %ages or both?

Big issue for me...nobpdy has anything like a plan. Reform have a whinge list and nothing else; Lib Dems...no idea what they actually stand for--- and yet both have done very well in these votes.

I'm not really trying to praise or faint praise them. I'm taking competent to mean able to run their departments, enact policies etc without too many cockups or resignations, which they seem to be doing, so on that basis they seem to be broadly competent. Also, I'm not sure competence is something you can decide to do more of. Given that most of them haven't been in government before, they are meeting the bar for 'competence'.

What I'm not considering to be part of 'competence' are the big decisions about what direction to be taking government, the economy in, the left/right, progressive/regressive, equality/inequality choices. Obviously I think they're a disaster there.

More progressive taxation. There are lots of things that can be done here. The easy ones are equalising the tax treatment of different things eg taxing earned and unearned income the same, so taxing dividends and capital gains at the same rates as income tax. Then there's charging national insurance on things that don't attract it currently - unearned income. Then there's fixing national insurance so that it's not regressive at higher incomes, ie the top band should be at the top rate. Personally I'd simplify the system by removing NI completely and simply applying income tax (at an increased rate) on all income, earned and unearned. Ideally I'd also reduce the regressive VAT and increase income tax to make up for it.

As for tax levels (after all those changes), no doubt they would need some adjustment. I'd want something like the bottom 50% of the population paying less tax and the top 30% paying more. The idea is to genuinely reduce inequality, ie redistribute wealth.

Agreed, I don't see much of a plan.

[Son of Mathonwy]

This was always going to be a protest vote, so good for Greens, Libs and Reform. The danger is this developing narrative that Refoem are the opposition now.

I do t think a move to the left will save Labour. Not all left policies are vote winners. Farage is using the uncertainty about what reform is to pick and choose. Can Labour do the same and be left on economics and right on social matters? Will that keep core Labour voters, ie working class and left leaning professionals on track? I don’t think the latter would be happy and might look to green instead.

Their best tack is to keep to the centre and let the Tories continue to drift. Be competent and start challenging reforms policies. Now reform have so many councils there will be plenty of ammunition available to point out their flaws.

Reform are already talking about a UK DOGE effect. Let’s see how well that goes down when local services collapse. I don’t think sacking DEI officers will be that noticeable, but widespread slash and burn will.

This has been a gift to Reform because a lot of the votes have been in Reform territory, so they look stronger than they are. However, they're still polling just ahead of Labour and so far ahead of the (possibly dying) Tory party that they can reasonably call themselves the opposition.

Not all left policies are vote winners but policies that make most people's lives easier (ie reducing inequality) should be. This is the way to defuse Reform's support, by fixing people's lives so they don't have anything to blame on migrants (or net zero!??). But talking up immigration as a purely negative thing (and conflating legal and illegal migration) - as Starmer did even today - is just saying Farage is right, vote for him. Similarly, walking away from net zero. No one who really thinks immigration or net zero are the big problems will ever vote for Labour.

I'd say the Labour are centre-right, not centre - they're only just left of where Sunak's Tories were. But whatever we call it, if they stay there they'll lose half of their votes to the Greens, LibDems and (as the Democrats found) the stay-at-homes. Voters need a reason to vote for a party and they aren't being given one.

God help disabled people in any of those under any of those Reform councils as they look to make cuts. Hopefully this will be noticed in general but most of the newspapers will spin it as a good thing or the fault of the national government. The shame for Labour is that they've lost their chance to significantly increase central funding for local government. If they were to do it now (in a massive u-turn. . . which won't happen) Reform would take all the credit.

[Banquo]

.

On competence, I think they may be doing the best they can.

Is that praise or faint praise based on the competency available? (though you also say a catastrophic 10 months, so I suppose I can guess).

Whats your view on 'more progressive taxation' ...raising thresholds, raising %ages or both?

Big issue for me...nobpdy has anything like a plan. Reform have a whinge list and nothing else; Lib Dems...no idea what they actually stand for--- and yet both have done very well in these votes.

I'm not really trying to praise or faint praise them. I'm taking competent to mean able to run their departments, enact policies etc without too many cockups or resignations, which they seem to be doing, so on that basis they seem to be broadly competent. Also, I'm not sure competence is something you can decide to do more of. Given that most of them haven't been in government before, they are meeting the bar for 'competence'.

What I'm not considering to be part of 'competence' are the big decisions about what direction to be taking government, the economy in, the left/right, progressive/regressive, equality/inequality choices. Obviously I think they're a disaster there.

More progressive taxation. There are lots of things that can be done here. The easy ones are equalising the tax treatment of different things eg taxing earned and unearned income the same, so taxing dividends and capital gains at the same rates as income tax. Then there's charging national insurance on things that don't attract it currently - unearned income. Then there's fixing national insurance so that it's not regressive at higher incomes, ie the top band should be at the top rate. Personally I'd simplify the system by removing NI completely and simply applying income tax (at an increased rate) on all income, earned and unearned. Ideally I'd also reduce the regressive VAT and increase income tax to make up for it.

As for tax levels (after all those changes), no doubt they would need some adjustment. I'd want something like the bottom 50% of the population paying less tax and the top 30% paying more. The idea is to genuinely reduce inequality, ie redistribute wealth.

Agreed, I don't see much of a plan.

So they are delivering bad policies competently
On taxes- have you or someone else (not expecting you to tbf) run the numbers on your proposals?

What’s certain is that we are pretty badly broken by any measure.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Is that praise or faint praise based on the competency available? (though you also say a catastrophic 10 months, so I suppose I can guess).

Whats your view on 'more progressive taxation' ...raising thresholds, raising %ages or both?

Big issue for me...nobpdy has anything like a plan. Reform have a whinge list and nothing else; Lib Dems...no idea what they actually stand for--- and yet both have done very well in these votes.

I'm not really trying to praise or faint praise them. I'm taking competent to mean able to run their departments, enact policies etc without too many cockups or resignations, which they seem to be doing, so on that basis they seem to be broadly competent. Also, I'm not sure competence is something you can decide to do more of. Given that most of them haven't been in government before, they are meeting the bar for 'competence'.

What I'm not considering to be part of 'competence' are the big decisions about what direction to be taking government, the economy in, the left/right, progressive/regressive, equality/inequality choices. Obviously I think they're a disaster there.

More progressive taxation. There are lots of things that can be done here. The easy ones are equalising the tax treatment of different things eg taxing earned and unearned income the same, so taxing dividends and capital gains at the same rates as income tax. Then there's charging national insurance on things that don't attract it currently - unearned income. Then there's fixing national insurance so that it's not regressive at higher incomes, ie the top band should be at the top rate. Personally I'd simplify the system by removing NI completely and simply applying income tax (at an increased rate) on all income, earned and unearned. Ideally I'd also reduce the regressive VAT and increase income tax to make up for it.

As for tax levels (after all those changes), no doubt they would need some adjustment. I'd want something like the bottom 50% of the population paying less tax and the top 30% paying more. The idea is to genuinely reduce inequality, ie redistribute wealth.

Agreed, I don't see much of a plan.

So they are delivering bad policies competently
On taxes- have you or someone else (not expecting you to tbf) run the numbers on your proposals?

What’s certain is that we are pretty badly broken by any measure.

Yeah, that's my take on it, they are reasonably competent at the day-to-day managing but incompetent (or misguided, self-serving or just plain wrong) on the big picture.

Some of these ideas and many more are looked at here:
https://taxingwealth.uk/
https://taxingwealth.uk/2023/09/06/weal ... in-the-uk/

[Banquo]

I'm not really trying to praise or faint praise them. I'm taking competent to mean able to run their departments, enact policies etc without too many cockups or resignations, which they seem to be doing, so on that basis they seem to be broadly competent. Also, I'm not sure competence is something you can decide to do more of. Given that most of them haven't been in government before, they are meeting the bar for 'competence'.

What I'm not considering to be part of 'competence' are the big decisions about what direction to be taking government, the economy in, the left/right, progressive/regressive, equality/inequality choices. Obviously I think they're a disaster there.

More progressive taxation. There are lots of things that can be done here. The easy ones are equalising the tax treatment of different things eg taxing earned and unearned income the same, so taxing dividends and capital gains at the same rates as income tax. Then there's charging national insurance on things that don't attract it currently - unearned income. Then there's fixing national insurance so that it's not regressive at higher incomes, ie the top band should be at the top rate. Personally I'd simplify the system by removing NI completely and simply applying income tax (at an increased rate) on all income, earned and unearned. Ideally I'd also reduce the regressive VAT and increase income tax to make up for it.

As for tax levels (after all those changes), no doubt they would need some adjustment. I'd want something like the bottom 50% of the population paying less tax and the top 30% paying more. The idea is to genuinely reduce inequality, ie redistribute wealth.

Agreed, I don't see much of a plan.

So they are delivering bad policies competently
On taxes- have you or someone else (not expecting you to tbf) run the numbers on your proposals?

What’s certain is that we are pretty badly broken by any measure.

Yeah, that's my take on it, they are reasonably competent at the day-to-day managing but incompetent (or misguided, self-serving or just plain wrong) on the big picture.

Some of these ideas and many more are looked at here:
https://taxingwealth.uk/
https://taxingwealth.uk/2023/09/06/weal ... in-the-uk/

Cheers will have a look through, though I think 'reasonably competent' is a minimum standard (and not even achieved in some cases cough treasury cough.....)though lower bars have been set

[Son of Mathonwy]

So they are delivering bad policies competently
On taxes- have you or someone else (not expecting you to tbf) run the numbers on your proposals?

What’s certain is that we are pretty badly broken by any measure.

Yeah, that's my take on it, they are reasonably competent at the day-to-day managing but incompetent (or misguided, self-serving or just plain wrong) on the big picture.

Some of these ideas and many more are looked at here:
https://taxingwealth.uk/
https://taxingwealth.uk/2023/09/06/weal ... in-the-uk/

Cheers will have a look through, though I think 'reasonably competent' is a minimum standard (and not even achieved in some cases cough treasury cough.....)though lower bars have been set

Sure, Sandy brought up the point about competence, I'm just saying they seem to be reaching that - that's not what needs to change to stop the country from hating them.

[Son of Mathonwy]

I'm trying to decide whether I want Labour to lose the Runcorn and Helsby byelection to Reform.

If Labour win they'll think they're doing okay and will continue on the same course. Which is bad for us and for them (in 2029).

If they lose, who knows what their reaction will be? Ape Reform even more? Or realize (finally) that no matter how many Faragist arguments they make they can never out-Farage Farage?

I have a horrible feeling they'll see either result as a reason to tack right.

In the end though, a loss will be undeniable evidence that they are going wrong and is more likely to lead to change (and maybe sackings) and change could be for the better. So bring on the loss.

Yeah, as expected the Labour reaction was: 'You hate what we're doing? Okay we'll do it even more.'

It's funny how both Kwasi Kwarteng and Keir Starmer used the line 'I get it' when faced with a horrifically negative reaction. Unfortunately even Kwarteng half meant it and reversed some of his measures. Starmer's just mouthing a phrase McSweeney's given him and intends to change nothing.

Anyway, at least it's a lost byelection (etc) and difficult to ignore (on top of the consistently awful polling). It puts pressure the Labour leadership. Realistically, though, nothing will change unless Starmer stands down or changes his advisors.