If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Which Tyler]

Poland next on the menu
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... ollow-live

Test to see what NATO's top systems are like? test to see how NATO's responds? Straight up response to Poland increasing security on its borders with Belarus and Kaliningrad?


Either way, Russia has escalated (and potentially provided a Casus Belli), so it's Poland's turn. The best response would be putting even more pressure on Hungary to be less obstructive on... most things; and to increase support for Ukraine - appropriate would be buying /ordering a shit-tonne of anti-drone measures from Ukraine as a form of aid.

ETA: Christ, I've even seen someone who's opinions I respect theorise that it might even be an attempt to draw NATO into the war officially - better to lose to an equal, and historic foe; than lose to a lesser, barely-state who were supposed to roll over and welcome their betters.

[Sandydragon]

Poland next on the menu
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... ollow-live

Test to see what NATO's top systems are like? test to see how NATO's responds? Straight up response to Poland increasing security on its borders with Belarus and Kaliningrad?


Either way, Russia has escalated (and potentially provided a Casus Belli), so it's Poland's turn. The best response would be putting even more pressure on Hungary to be less obstructive on... most things; and to increase support for Ukraine - appropriate would be buying /ordering a shit-tonne of anti-drone measures from Ukraine as a form of aid.

ETA: Christ, I've even seen someone who's opinions I respect theorise that it might even be an attempt to draw NATO into the war officially - better to lose to an equal, and historic foe; than lose to a lesser, barely-state who were supposed to roll over and welcome their betters.

It’s a deliberate and careful escalation. A hostile act over a NATO country but also no one killed. NATO needs to show resolve, which for me would be providing more air defence to Ukraine and supporting Poland defend any more incursions.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Poland next on the menu
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... ollow-live

Test to see what NATO's top systems are like? test to see how NATO's responds? Straight up response to Poland increasing security on its borders with Belarus and Kaliningrad?


Either way, Russia has escalated (and potentially provided a Casus Belli), so it's Poland's turn. The best response would be putting even more pressure on Hungary to be less obstructive on... most things; and to increase support for Ukraine - appropriate would be buying /ordering a shit-tonne of anti-drone measures from Ukraine as a form of aid.

ETA: Christ, I've even seen someone who's opinions I respect theorise that it might even be an attempt to draw NATO into the war officially - better to lose to an equal, and historic foe; than lose to a lesser, barely-state who were supposed to roll over and welcome their betters.

It’s a deliberate and careful escalation. A hostile act over a NATO country but also no one killed. NATO needs to show resolve, which for me would be providing more air defence to Ukraine and supporting Poland defend any more incursions.

Exactly, they need to have NATO jets and other air defences, anywhere on the border, ready to shoot down anything that comes over.

Love Trump's reaction - meaningless statement from Putin's bro. We need to develop a Patriot equivalent in Europe. And we need to stop buying F-35s.

[Zhivago]

Poland next on the menu
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... ollow-live

Test to see what NATO's top systems are like? test to see how NATO's responds? Straight up response to Poland increasing security on its borders with Belarus and Kaliningrad?


Either way, Russia has escalated (and potentially provided a Casus Belli), so it's Poland's turn. The best response would be putting even more pressure on Hungary to be less obstructive on... most things; and to increase support for Ukraine - appropriate would be buying /ordering a shit-tonne of anti-drone measures from Ukraine as a form of aid.

ETA: Christ, I've even seen someone who's opinions I respect theorise that it might even be an attempt to draw NATO into the war officially - better to lose to an equal, and historic foe; than lose to a lesser, barely-state who were supposed to roll over and welcome their betters.

It’s a deliberate and careful escalation. A hostile act over a NATO country but also no one killed. NATO needs to show resolve, which for me would be providing more air defence to Ukraine and supporting Poland defend any more incursions.

NATO seems completely unprepared for this drone warfare at scale. The cost of these drones are so much less than the NATO response, the approach we saw to combat this probe is not a cost effective or sustainable strategy. I'm sure Putin will gladly escalate without fear.

Currently they're practicing conquering the Suwalki gap, ready for their Baltic offensive once they've achieved their goals in Ukraine in a few years' time.

[Which Tyler]

[Puja]

You have to wonder what Putin is hoping to gain by this. Yes, America is distracted with its descent into fascism and will not be a forceful lead in NATO, but Russia are struggling with fighting Ukraine at present and really cannot afford a second front, especially one that is as well-armed and angry as the Poles are, and doubly so when mutual defence treaties would likely bring the EU in as well. It's not exactly riskless sabre-rattling either, cause the political mood in Poland is pretty pissed-off, given their general kinship and relations with Ukraine, and they are not going to need too much of an invitation to step outside at the current time.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

You have to wonder what Putin is hoping to gain by this. Yes, America is distracted with its descent into fascism and will not be a forceful lead in NATO, but Russia are struggling with fighting Ukraine at present and really cannot afford a second front, especially one that is as well-armed and angry as the Poles are, and doubly so when mutual defence treaties would likely bring the EU in as well. It's not exactly riskless sabre-rattling either, cause the political mood in Poland is pretty pissed-off, given their general kinship and relations with Ukraine, and they are not going to need too much of an invitation to step outside at the current time.

Puja

Putin is presumably trying to get us to divert resources that would otherwise be in Ukraine to guard other parts of the border. But agreed, the last thing he'd want is another front with NATO as the opposition, so he's taking a chance.

In some ways this is a good thing because we badly need to be thinking about what would happen if someone attacked us suddenly with, like 10,000 drones (why stop there? 100,000 . . . 1m??).

[paddy no 11]

Fucking czech douche bags, they'd deserve another russian colonisation if that's what they've voted for

[Son of Mathonwy]

Fucking czech douche bags, they'd deserve another russian colonisation if that's what they've voted for

They must have loved those iron curtain days.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_Pa ... hoslovakia

[Which Tyler]

[Sandydragon]

You have to wonder what Putin is hoping to gain by this. Yes, America is distracted with its descent into fascism and will not be a forceful lead in NATO, but Russia are struggling with fighting Ukraine at present and really cannot afford a second front, especially one that is as well-armed and angry as the Poles are, and doubly so when mutual defence treaties would likely bring the EU in as well. It's not exactly riskless sabre-rattling either, cause the political mood in Poland is pretty pissed-off, given their general kinship and relations with Ukraine, and they are not going to need too much of an invitation to step outside at the current time.

Puja

Putin is presumably trying to get us to divert resources that would otherwise be in Ukraine to guard other parts of the border. But agreed, the last thing he'd want is another front with NATO as the opposition, so he's taking a chance.

In some ways this is a good thing because we badly need to be thinking about what would happen if someone attacked us suddenly with, like 10,000 drones (why stop there? 100,000 . . . 1m??).

For the past 3 years, many western leaders have been treading carefully around Putin to avoid any sign of provocation. Its possible that Putin believes that he can cow Nato populations and force them to reduce support for Ukraine. Especially if Trump provides half hearted, meaningless messaging to Nato partners.

[Which Tyler]

Analysis: Ukraine learns hard lessons from Russia's evolving tactics after clearing Dobropillia 'breakthrough'
After two and a half months of intense fighting, the red rabbit-ear-looking shape on the battlefield map of Donetsk Oblast is gone for good.

With the liberation of two more villages, Sukhetske and Kucheriv Yar, announced by the Ukrainian military over the weekend, the operation to clear the major Russian breach of Ukrainian lines near the city of Dobropillia is all but over.

[morepork]

Ukraine getting fucked by the gormless conman in charge of the executive branch of US government. The art of the deal indeed.

[Which Tyler]

As ever, Trump is proposing Putin's deal.
This time, with dodgy translation from the original Russian (apparently)

There was always going to be a time when USA pulled out and left it to everyone else - looks like that time has arrived.
Distraction from Epstein or distraction from warmongering in Venezuela?

Europe has always said it would continue supporting Ukraine if/when USA TACOs, just remains to be seen if this is true or just words.

[Which Tyler]

[Stom]

Oh look, Putin doesn’t want to end the war. Quelle surprise.

Wonder what his eminence the king of Orange will do…

[Which Tyler]

Oh look, Putin doesn’t want to end the war. Quelle surprise.

Wonder what his eminence the king of Orange will do…

Blame Zelenskyy, of course*.
And do nothing whatsoever to Putin



* Or possibly European NATO

ETA: Oh, and invade Venezeula so that people stop talking about Ukraine (not me), Epstein (not that), Bondi (not me), or Reiner (not me)

[Which Tyler]

Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine leaked false information to US intelligence and they later saw Russian forces acting on it.

[paddy no 11]

Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine leaked false information to US intelligence and they later saw Russian forces acting on it.

Would it surprise anyone?

[Which Tyler]

Not in the slightest.
It may well not be true, but it's absolutely believable.


ETA: I see it's now being refuted

[Son of Mathonwy]

Not in the slightest.
It may well not be true, but it's absolutely believable.


ETA: I see it's now being refuted

It's not in Ukraine's interest for this to be confirmed publicly, but it's something they very much need to know. If true!!

[Puja]

Not in the slightest.
It may well not be true, but it's absolutely believable.


ETA: I see it's now being refuted

It's not in Ukraine's interest for this to be confirmed publicly, but it's something they very much need to know. If true!!

To be honest, it's doubly against Ukraine's interest to have it confirmed publically - it'd be a good little tactical advantage to be able to directly feed false information to the Russians.

Puja

[Stom]

Zelensky's speech at Davos is spot on, imo. The EU has been weighed down by "doing things the right way", and is losing credibility. It needs to reform if it is to be a front runner in world politics. And as an EU resident, I desperately want to see it do so.

A real European leadership that can make decisions unilaterally on important topics would be essential, imo. Instead, it needs to be debated, it needs to be voted on, it needs to lose because Hungary and/or Slovakia vote against, and then it needs to pass because there are methods to put the fascists to the side...SO WHY VOTE IN THE FIRST PLACE IF YOU KNOW VIKTOR IS GOING TO VETO IT, FFS!

Just kick us out already and be done with it.

[Puja]

Zelensky's speech at Davos is spot on, imo. The EU has been weighed down by "doing things the right way", and is losing credibility. It needs to reform if it is to be a front runner in world politics. And as an EU resident, I desperately want to see it do so.

A real European leadership that can make decisions unilaterally on important topics would be essential, imo. Instead, it needs to be debated, it needs to be voted on, it needs to lose because Hungary and/or Slovakia vote against, and then it needs to pass because there are methods to put the fascists to the side...SO WHY VOTE IN THE FIRST PLACE IF YOU KNOW VIKTOR IS GOING TO VETO IT, FFS!

Just kick us out already and be done with it.

One of the reasons that I equivocated over my vote in the 2016 referendum was that the UK was obstructionist in Europe and spent most of our time doing stupid things like sending Farage as an MEP, arguing that we should be a special exception to the rules, and forcibly fighting any and all integration that we could. I thought that we could be better off being out and doing our own thing (while maintaining strong relationships, common market, etc) and letting Europe move towards a United States of Europe dream of single currency, single foreign policy, single armed forces, single border, etc, etc, and reaping the benefits of economies of scale and not wasting money duplicating everything.

As it turned out, I voted remain in the end and we left for the stupidest of reasons and with the stupidest of people making decisions and with the stupidest possible exit, napalming bridges on our way out and throwing our own excrement at anyone trying to maintain strong relationships, so my dream could never have come to fruition anyway. But it is disappointing that Hungary and Slovakia have taken up our proud heritage of being obstructionist pricks as soon as we left.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

It's not exactly new news that Europe needs closer alignment on many areas of life - ideally, probably a federation of states.
It's also not exactly new news that individual nation states don't like the idea of giving up their autonomy - especially those who are so often going to be the deciding vote, and exert way more influence than they should.