RugbyRebels

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2024 3:27 pm Zhivago,

Everything I'm reading suggests that only limited (albeit mobile) Ukrainian troops have been deployed, which points towards a diversionary attack to force Russia to move troops from elsewhere. Is there anything you have found that offers a different view?

Zhivago wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2024 3:50 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2024 3:27 pm Zhivago,

Everything I'm reading suggests that only limited (albeit mobile) Ukrainian troops have been deployed, which points towards a diversionary attack to force Russia to move troops from elsewhere. Is there anything you have found that offers a different view?

Operational security has been very tight from the Ukrainian side. Therefore it is not clear what their main objectives are. I'm not a military expert, but from what I've read it seems much more similar to the Balakliya breakthrough in the 2022 Kharkiv counter offensive in nature, although smaller in scale (at least so far). The similarity for me is the deep mobile and raiding nature of the attacks. Getting in behind the Russian lines (they have broken through two prepared lines of defence). Ukraine is still advancing, and so far the territory taken is greater than the recent Russian offensive in Kharkiv oblast.

There seems to be a development in tactics, with a strong role played by electronic warfare suppressing Russian comms and drone reconnaissance. There is saturation of air defence assets also in the Ukrainian offensive groups. Also the materiel is marked with a triangle/delta symbol, indicating to me that this is more than just some kind of diversion reconnaisance group, but a proper offensive, planned for months. In terms of scale we are talking multiple thousands of troops and hundreds of armoured vehicles. I have read that Ukraine still has at least 3 brigades in reserve, which might yet be thrown in on a secondary axis.

edit:
At this stage on wikipedia it is being called an 'incursion' rather than a counteroffensive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_20 ... _incursion

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2024 3:43 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2024 3:27 pm Zhivago,

Everything I'm reading suggests that only limited (albeit mobile) Ukrainian troops have been deployed, which points towards a diversionary attack to force Russia to move troops from elsewhere. Is there anything you have found that offers a different view?

A more recent report suggests this is a 2 brigade operation, so not inconsequential numbers.

• 22nd Mechanized Brigade

• 14th Separate Regiment of Unmanned Aviation Systems

• 80th Air Assault Brigade

• Georgian Legion

• Freedom of Russia Legion

• Alfa Group (special forces under SBU)

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2024 4:15 pm

Zhivago wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2024 3:50 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2024 3:27 pm Zhivago,

Everything I'm reading suggests that only limited (albeit mobile) Ukrainian troops have been deployed, which points towards a diversionary attack to force Russia to move troops from elsewhere. Is there anything you have found that offers a different view?

Operational security has been very tight from the Ukrainian side. Therefore it is not clear what their main objectives are. I'm not a military expert, but from what I've read it seems much more similar to the Balakliya breakthrough in the 2022 Kharkiv counter offensive in nature, although smaller in scale (at least so far). The similarity for me is the deep mobile and raiding nature of the attacks. Getting in behind the Russian lines (they have broken through two prepared lines of defence). Ukraine is still advancing, and so far the territory taken is greater than the recent Russian offensive in Kharkiv oblast.

There seems to be a development in tactics, with a strong role played by electronic warfare suppressing Russian comms and drone reconnaissance. There is saturation of air defence assets also in the Ukrainian offensive groups. Also the materiel is marked with a triangle/delta symbol, indicating to me that this is more than just some kind of diversion reconnaisance group, but a proper offensive, planned for months. In terms of scale we are talking multiple thousands of troops and hundreds of armoured vehicles. I have read that Ukraine still has at least 3 brigades in reserve, which might yet be thrown in on a secondary axis.

edit:
At this stage on wikipedia it is being called an 'incursion' rather than a counteroffensive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_20 ... _incursion

Thanks. I'd suggest that more than 2 brigades would be needed for a full counter-offensive, but this is likely to be a major fixing operation designed to draw Russian troops north from other hot spots. it could be that the situation becomes favourable and Ukraine look to exploit a sluggish Russian response, but at the moment this feels more political than military in terms of objectives, i.e. rather than trying to bite and hold, they might be looking to make a political point and then withdraw, having unsettled Russia, reassured Nato allies that they are still capable of such things and weakened Russian troops elsewhere. Creating a huge salient which could be counter-attacked and cause the loss of many troops and material is something they would want to avoid.

Zhivago wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2024 4:18 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2024 3:43 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2024 3:27 pm Zhivago,

Everything I'm reading suggests that only limited (albeit mobile) Ukrainian troops have been deployed, which points towards a diversionary attack to force Russia to move troops from elsewhere. Is there anything you have found that offers a different view?

A more recent report suggests this is a 2 brigade operation, so not inconsequential numbers.

Which report is that?

From what I've found the force consists of the following:

• 22nd Mechanized Brigade

• 14th Separate Regiment of Unmanned Aviation Systems

• 80th Air Assault Brigade

• Georgian Legion

• Freedom of Russia Legion

• Alfa Group (special forces under SBU)

Russians are posting this now:

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:02 pm Having double checked the size of the Georgian Legion, it’s basically three brigades with support.

Zhivago wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:12 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:02 pm Having double checked the size of the Georgian Legion, it’s basically three brigades with support.

I guess 2-3 thousand men then? Not sure how big a brigade is...

paddy no 11 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 13, 2024 4:04 pm What's going on here lads, force vlad to move drops and withdraw as soon as he does? and reclaim occupied Ukraine?

Mellsblue wrote: ↑Tue Aug 13, 2024 11:01 pm Zelensky is proving once again that you can see his balls from space. I’m so fucking happy it’s working but I’m praying to a god I don’t believe in that it doesn’t back fire.

Mellsblue wrote: ↑Tue Aug 13, 2024 11:01 pm Zelensky is proving once again that you can see his balls from space. I’m so fucking happy it’s working but I’m praying to a god I don’t believe in that it doesn’t back fire.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Sep 08, 2024 9:27 am

Mellsblue wrote: ↑Tue Aug 13, 2024 11:01 pm Zelensky is proving once again that you can see his balls from space. I’m so fucking happy it’s working but I’m praying to a god I don’t believe in that it doesn’t back fire.

Feels like both sides are waiting for the US election to be completed. The Ukraine advance has been excellent but they will run out of troops to keep expanding their salient. The Russians will then be able to mass firepower a against troops in defence, so sitting where they are for the long term is a strange decision unless they are expecting Putin to talk after the elections.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 08, 2024 6:50 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Sep 08, 2024 9:27 am

Mellsblue wrote: ↑Tue Aug 13, 2024 11:01 pm Zelensky is proving once again that you can see his balls from space. I’m so fucking happy it’s working but I’m praying to a god I don’t believe in that it doesn’t back fire.

Feels like both sides are waiting for the US election to be completed. The Ukraine advance has been excellent but they will run out of troops to keep expanding their salient. The Russians will then be able to mass firepower a against troops in defence, so sitting where they are for the long term is a strange decision unless they are expecting Putin to talk after the elections.

I suppose the fact that we're left guessing what Zelenskyy is planning means that Putin is too,