COVID19

[Son of Mathonwy]

FT have included excess deaths in their stats, not just UK:
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Really good article.

I think they really ought to use a linear scale for the main graph, and make the numbers per capita. The main argument for using a log scale was that helps show the exponential rates of growth. But none of the countries have exponential growth now.

[Galfon]

How the blazes ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-52489092

These places are ready made incubators.

[Banquo]

FT have included excess deaths in their stats, not just UK:
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Really good article.

I think they really ought to use a linear scale for the main graph, and make the numbers per capita. The main argument for using a log scale was that helps show the exponential rates of growth. But none of the countries have exponential growth now.

You can email them, there's a link at the bottom of the article.

[Digby]

So now we know, it's from a lab in China, there's proof and everything

[canta_brian]

So now we know, it's from a lab in China, there's proof and everything

Maybe the orange one has hit on something this time. Does anyone know how stable viruses are in a thermonuclear explosion?

[Mellsblue]

Nearly 9,000 fines for breaking lockdown restrictions, to 27th April.
I’ve used my own algorithm to extrapolate how many people are flouting the restrictions given those not caught, those only warned and those who are repeat offenders (nearly 400) and I’ve deduced that the number of self-important tw@ts is a lot/far too many. Delete as you feel applicable.

That said, I know of Border Force officers in uniform in the way to/from work who have been stopped and fined.

Whatever happened to common sense?

My complex algorithm allows for self-important police officers to be included in the self-important tw@ts cohort.

[Sandydragon]

Nearly 9,000 fines for breaking lockdown restrictions, to 27th April.
I’ve used my own algorithm to extrapolate how many people are flouting the restrictions given those not caught, those only warned and those who are repeat offenders (nearly 400) and I’ve deduced that the number of self-important tw@ts is a lot/far too many. Delete as you feel applicable.

That said, I know of Border Force officers in uniform in the way to/from work who have been stopped and fined.

Whatever happened to common sense?

My complex algorithm allows for self-important police officers to be included in the self-important tw@ts cohort.

Good, just checking.

[morepork]

* I hope it is part of the plan. IMO it wouldn't be unreasonable (ie it wouldn't really discourage travellers) to check the temperature of anyone arriving from Italy, Spain, France etc.

** If government has capacity to continue with Brexit negotiations at this point, then it has capacity to deal with this key part of disease control in the middle of a medical crisis. Get a new junior minister on it, hire someone, money is not really an object here. I don't know if you're playing devil's advocate here, but you don't really believe that 5 weeks into the lockdown is the right time to start recruiting 18k people (who will need to be trained), do you? There have been at least ~10k people tested every day this month, so there's plenty for the first contact tracers to get into.

I Like the approach in New Zealand. If you arrive in the country you are quarantined for 14 days. Pretty sure that South Korea do this as well. I’d make an exception for someone on a connecting flight who doesn’t leave the airport, which can be managed with some thought.

Regardless, cheap package flights won’t make a quick reoccurrence.

Is the 14 day quarantine is for those who test positive? Or any new arrival? (Not sure I'd go that far!)

Any new arrival. And it's working.

[Mikey Brown]

I can’t really bring myself to keep up with the all the numbers and contrary analysis from day to day.

Anyone know if these numbers are acknowledged as reliable? It just feels futile trying to pick through the information at the moment.

[Son of Mathonwy]

I can’t really bring myself to keep up with the all the numbers and contrary analysis from day to day.

Anyone know if these numbers are acknowledged as reliable? It just feels futile trying to pick through the information at the moment.

I expect Starmer will ask a question or two about this in PMQs next week

[Which Tyler]

I can’t really bring myself to keep up with the all the numbers and contrary analysis from day to day.

Anyone know if these numbers are acknowledged as reliable? It just feels futile trying to pick through the information at the moment.

BBC have similar: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52508836

Of the 122,347 tests provided in the 24 hours up to Friday morning, the number of people tested was fewer - at just over 70,000 - as has been the case since the testing programme began. This is because some people need to be tested more than once to get a reliable result.

The total testing figure includes 27,497 kits which were delivered to people's homes and also 12,872 tests that were sent out to centres such as hospitals and NHS sites.

However, these may not have been actually used or sent back to a lab.

Of the 122k "tested" about 1 third haven't actually got as far as being called "tested" yet, and may not even have been swabbed for samples yet.

27,510 deaths seem to be those with confirmed covid-19

[fivepointer]

Utterly shameless nonsense from the Govt to suggest 100K tests were completed on 30 April.

Its fair to say that testing numbers have gone up significantly (and boy did they need to) so the Govt deserve some credit for that. But why pretend something happened when it was patently obvious it hadnt?

We deserve better than this.

[Mellsblue]

If you’re hyper-bored and have 1.5 hours to spare then the below is a lecture on COVID-19 by Prof Witty:

[Puja]

If I were Starmer, I'd be looking to use this as an opportunity to start repetition branding this Government as dishonest. Don't attack the number of tests, go with, "If they'd just announced they'd done 70k then I'd be standing up and applauding the impressive increase. Why did they feel they had to lie? An international emergency is no time for exaggeration and untruths in order to make them look better."

He's an unknown quantity to the average spod, but he can gain a reputation as "honest and reliable" by consistently repeating that the government are dishonest, continually pointing out the exaggerations under the guise of trying to support the Covid Response but disliking that political spin is being imparted by the government, and getting it into the public consciousness that they are not to be trusted. As long as he doesn't get caught in a lie himself, he'll be able to go into the next election as "the trustworthy one" which will be something of an asset against Boris.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

If I were Starmer, I'd be looking to use this as an opportunity to start repetition branding this Government as dishonest. Don't attack the number of tests, go with, "If they'd just announced they'd done 70k then I'd be standing up and applauding the impressive increase. Why did they feel they had to lie? An international emergency is no time for exaggeration and untruths in order to make them look better."

He's an unknown quantity to the average spod, but he can gain a reputation as "honest and reliable" by consistently repeating that the government are dishonest, continually pointing out the exaggerations under the guise of trying to support the Covid Response but disliking that political spin is being imparted by the government, and getting it into the public consciousness that they are not to be trusted. As long as he doesn't get caught in a lie himself, he'll be able to go into the next election as "the trustworthy one" which will be something of an asset against Boris.

Puja

He’s every right to call this out and should do. To undertake a tactic to go on repeated attacks at a time when govt control over the pop is hugely critical is dangerous. We need the country to act on govt advice if we are to get through this. Let’s remember that when the govt first set out social distancing measures people took this to mean to go to beauty spots and beaches just to not practise social distancing advice and, as a whole, the pop under reacted against govt modelling. People listening and acting on govt advice, and let’s remember that advice is born in SAGE not Boris’s kitchen table, is crucial and potentially undermining this is dangerous. Let’s also remember that the biggest culprit for the low number of tests is PHE and that testing has only cranked up once it was taken out of their control/they reluctantly decided to use private providers. The 100k was arbitrary bs and the announcement yesterday more bs but to lay this solely at the feet of politicians is wrong.

[Puja]

If I were Starmer, I'd be looking to use this as an opportunity to start repetition branding this Government as dishonest. Don't attack the number of tests, go with, "If they'd just announced they'd done 70k then I'd be standing up and applauding the impressive increase. Why did they feel they had to lie? An international emergency is no time for exaggeration and untruths in order to make them look better."

He's an unknown quantity to the average spod, but he can gain a reputation as "honest and reliable" by consistently repeating that the government are dishonest, continually pointing out the exaggerations under the guise of trying to support the Covid Response but disliking that political spin is being imparted by the government, and getting it into the public consciousness that they are not to be trusted. As long as he doesn't get caught in a lie himself, he'll be able to go into the next election as "the trustworthy one" which will be something of an asset against Boris.

Puja

He’s every right to call this out and should do. To undertake a tactic to go on repeated attacks at a time when govt control over the pop is hugely critical is dangerous. We need the country to act on govt advice if we are to get through this. Let’s remember that when the govt first set out social distancing measures people took this to mean to go to beauty spots and beaches just to not practise social distancing advice and, as a whole, the pop under reacted against govt modelling. People listening and acting on govt advice, and let’s remember that advice is born in SAGE not Boris’s kitchen table, is crucial and potentially undermining this is dangerous. Let’s also remember that the biggest culprit for the low number of tests is PHE and that testing has only cranked up once it was taken out of their control/they reluctantly decided to use private providers. The 100k was arbitrary bs and the announcement yesterday more bs but to lay this solely at the feet of politicians is wrong.

That's a reasonable and sensible point.

Puja

[Digby]

If doing dangerous things is important to avoid we might want a new government, they're not exactly responsible

[Mellsblue]

If I were Starmer, I'd be looking to use this as an opportunity to start repetition branding this Government as dishonest. Don't attack the number of tests, go with, "If they'd just announced they'd done 70k then I'd be standing up and applauding the impressive increase. Why did they feel they had to lie? An international emergency is no time for exaggeration and untruths in order to make them look better."

He's an unknown quantity to the average spod, but he can gain a reputation as "honest and reliable" by consistently repeating that the government are dishonest, continually pointing out the exaggerations under the guise of trying to support the Covid Response but disliking that political spin is being imparted by the government, and getting it into the public consciousness that they are not to be trusted. As long as he doesn't get caught in a lie himself, he'll be able to go into the next election as "the trustworthy one" which will be something of an asset against Boris.

Puja

He’s every right to call this out and should do. To undertake a tactic to go on repeated attacks at a time when govt control over the pop is hugely critical is dangerous. We need the country to act on govt advice if we are to get through this. Let’s remember that when the govt first set out social distancing measures people took this to mean to go to beauty spots and beaches just to not practise social distancing advice and, as a whole, the pop under reacted against govt modelling. People listening and acting on govt advice, and let’s remember that advice is born in SAGE not Boris’s kitchen table, is crucial and potentially undermining this is dangerous. Let’s also remember that the biggest culprit for the low number of tests is PHE and that testing has only cranked up once it was taken out of their control/they reluctantly decided to use private providers. The 100k was arbitrary bs and the announcement yesterday more bs but to lay this solely at the feet of politicians is wrong.

That's a reasonable and sensible point.

Puja

I’m assuming you’ll give us both a temporary ban until the England match.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

First, the scaling up in the last week has been really impressive. In fact since the government woke up they have done a half-decent job. Far from perfect but credit where it's due.

Apparently there has been no change in how they've calculated the numbers, which means that they've always been giving a false impression. The other problem is that apparently (some tweets suggest anyway) at least some of those tests sent out have had no return address and the advice that they were given was simply to bin the test.

If I were Starmer, I'd be looking to use this as an opportunity to start repetition branding this Government as dishonest. Don't attack the number of tests, go with, "If they'd just announced they'd done 70k then I'd be standing up and applauding the impressive increase. Why did they feel they had to lie? An international emergency is no time for exaggeration and untruths in order to make them look better."

He's an unknown quantity to the average spod, but he can gain a reputation as "honest and reliable" by consistently repeating that the government are dishonest, continually pointing out the exaggerations under the guise of trying to support the Covid Response but disliking that political spin is being imparted by the government, and getting it into the public consciousness that they are not to be trusted. As long as he doesn't get caught in a lie himself, he'll be able to go into the next election as "the trustworthy one" which will be something of an asset against Boris.

Puja

I don't know if you've seen him in action in PMQs but he's been being scrupulously fair but absolutely forensic. It's been a superb example of how to do it. It is time to make the "more in sorrow than in anger" criticism that it appears misleading, whatever their intention. I wouldn't make the accusation that it was dishonest yet because that will look like politics as normal.

If I were Starmer, I'd be looking to use this as an opportunity to start repetition branding this Government as dishonest. Don't attack the number of tests, go with, "If they'd just announced they'd done 70k then I'd be standing up and applauding the impressive increase. Why did they feel they had to lie? An international emergency is no time for exaggeration and untruths in order to make them look better."

He's an unknown quantity to the average spod, but he can gain a reputation as "honest and reliable" by consistently repeating that the government are dishonest, continually pointing out the exaggerations under the guise of trying to support the Covid Response but disliking that political spin is being imparted by the government, and getting it into the public consciousness that they are not to be trusted. As long as he doesn't get caught in a lie himself, he'll be able to go into the next election as "the trustworthy one" which will be something of an asset against Boris.

Puja

He’s every right to call this out and should do. To undertake a tactic to go on repeated attacks at a time when govt control over the pop is hugely critical is dangerous. We need the country to act on govt advice if we are to get through this. Let’s remember that when the govt first set out social distancing measures people took this to mean to go to beauty spots and beaches just to not practise social distancing advice and, as a whole, the pop under reacted against govt modelling. People listening and acting on govt advice, and let’s remember that advice is born in SAGE not Boris’s kitchen table, is crucial and potentially undermining this is dangerous. Let’s also remember that the biggest culprit for the low number of tests is PHE and that testing has only cranked up once it was taken out of their control/they reluctantly decided to use private providers. The 100k was arbitrary bs and the announcement yesterday more bs but to lay this solely at the feet of politicians is wrong.

It really isn't. The politicians are and have been in control throughout. It's just that they have only taken their fingers out of their arses in the past 6 weeks or so. PHE only has the money the politicians allow it so running off to private providers was always going to need the politicians involvement. However you're absolutely right about the importance of the government messaging being right and them being seen to be honest for us to be able to get through this.

[Banquo]

First, the scaling up in the last week has been really impressive. In fact since the government woke up they have done a half-decent job. Far from perfect but credit where it's due.

Apparently there has been no change in how they've calculated the numbers, which means that they've always been giving a false impression. The other problem is that apparently (some tweets suggest anyway) at least some of those tests sent out have had no return address and the advice that they were given was simply to bin the test.

If I were Starmer, I'd be looking to use this as an opportunity to start repetition branding this Government as dishonest. Don't attack the number of tests, go with, "If they'd just announced they'd done 70k then I'd be standing up and applauding the impressive increase. Why did they feel they had to lie? An international emergency is no time for exaggeration and untruths in order to make them look better."

He's an unknown quantity to the average spod, but he can gain a reputation as "honest and reliable" by consistently repeating that the government are dishonest, continually pointing out the exaggerations under the guise of trying to support the Covid Response but disliking that political spin is being imparted by the government, and getting it into the public consciousness that they are not to be trusted. As long as he doesn't get caught in a lie himself, he'll be able to go into the next election as "the trustworthy one" which will be something of an asset against Boris.

Puja

I don't know if you've seen him in action in PMQs but he's been being scrupulously fair but absolutely forensic. It's been a superb example of how to do it. It is time to make the "more in sorrow than in anger" criticism that it appears misleading, whatever their intention. I wouldn't make the accusation that it was dishonest yet because that will look like politics as normal.

If I were Starmer, I'd be looking to use this as an opportunity to start repetition branding this Government as dishonest. Don't attack the number of tests, go with, "If they'd just announced they'd done 70k then I'd be standing up and applauding the impressive increase. Why did they feel they had to lie? An international emergency is no time for exaggeration and untruths in order to make them look better."

He's an unknown quantity to the average spod, but he can gain a reputation as "honest and reliable" by consistently repeating that the government are dishonest, continually pointing out the exaggerations under the guise of trying to support the Covid Response but disliking that political spin is being imparted by the government, and getting it into the public consciousness that they are not to be trusted. As long as he doesn't get caught in a lie himself, he'll be able to go into the next election as "the trustworthy one" which will be something of an asset against Boris.

Puja

He’s every right to call this out and should do. To undertake a tactic to go on repeated attacks at a time when govt control over the pop is hugely critical is dangerous. We need the country to act on govt advice if we are to get through this. Let’s remember that when the govt first set out social distancing measures people took this to mean to go to beauty spots and beaches just to not practise social distancing advice and, as a whole, the pop under reacted against govt modelling. People listening and acting on govt advice, and let’s remember that advice is born in SAGE not Boris’s kitchen table, is crucial and potentially undermining this is dangerous. Let’s also remember that the biggest culprit for the low number of tests is PHE and that testing has only cranked up once it was taken out of their control/they reluctantly decided to use private providers. The 100k was arbitrary bs and the announcement yesterday more bs but to lay this solely at the feet of politicians is wrong.

It really isn't. The politicians are and have been in control throughout. It's just that they have only taken their fingers out of their arses in the past 6 weeks or so. PHE only has the money the politicians allow it so running off to private providers was always going to need the politicians involvement. However you're absolutely right about the importance of the government messaging being right and them being seen to be honest for us to be able to get through this.

The buck always stops with the govt (though 'in control' is always debatable for even the best of govts- events dear boy, or summat); ultimately the failings of PHE, NHS, and SAGE (and imo there are many) lie at the feet of the govt as all are agents of, and funded by, govt. Hancock must know how centralised their thinking and control freakery is (Stevens is renowned for it in NHSE), and should have broken all that down, ditto PHE.
You are right about the numbers- 'technically' the report of 122k was in line with methodology for previous reports. For a govt accused of spinning a lot, they are spectacularly bad at it!
This is exactly the time for Starmer to shine and cut through, when there is a 'fascination' with the numbers and minutiae- that's all the press have to report on, such is the effect of CV19. He's been picking areas where answering in other than a factual way is impossible, with difficult answers- his background is obvious!

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Here's something which is either terrifying or reassuring depending on your your perspective. On the basis of it I've come to the conclusion that probably most of (central) London has had the virus. It give the numbers of death by small geographic area of equal population.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... tput-areas

[Banquo]

Here's something which is either terrifying or reassuring depending on your your perspective. On the basis of it I've come to the conclusion that probably most of (central) London has had the virus. It give the numbers of death by small geographic area of equal population.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... tput-areas

Anecdotes from medics in London confirm this- volunteers going into the Nightingale are routinely tested and are coming up positive.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Apparently there has been no change in how they've calculated the numbers, which means that they've always been giving a false impression. The other problem is that apparently (some tweets suggest anyway) at least some of those tests sent out have had no return address and the advice that they were given was simply to bin the test.

You can just imagine the pressure to meet this arbitrary target - as long as it's out the door it's going to count, so why worry where it goes or if too many are sent to any location?

I wonder how many tests have been wasted just to "reach" this target?

So stupid. They've ramped it up impressively in the last few weeks (even taking into account the "if it's sent, it counts" methodology), why do they so desperately need to spin this?

[Mellsblue]

First, the scaling up in the last week has been really impressive. In fact since the government woke up they have done a half-decent job. Far from perfect but credit where it's due.

Apparently there has been no change in how they've calculated the numbers, which means that they've always been giving a false impression. The other problem is that apparently (some tweets suggest anyway) at least some of those tests sent out have had no return address and the advice that they were given was simply to bin the test.

If I were Starmer, I'd be looking to use this as an opportunity to start repetition branding this Government as dishonest. Don't attack the number of tests, go with, "If they'd just announced they'd done 70k then I'd be standing up and applauding the impressive increase. Why did they feel they had to lie? An international emergency is no time for exaggeration and untruths in order to make them look better."

He's an unknown quantity to the average spod, but he can gain a reputation as "honest and reliable" by consistently repeating that the government are dishonest, continually pointing out the exaggerations under the guise of trying to support the Covid Response but disliking that political spin is being imparted by the government, and getting it into the public consciousness that they are not to be trusted. As long as he doesn't get caught in a lie himself, he'll be able to go into the next election as "the trustworthy one" which will be something of an asset against Boris.

Puja

I don't know if you've seen him in action in PMQs but he's been being scrupulously fair but absolutely forensic. It's been a superb example of how to do it. It is time to make the "more in sorrow than in anger" criticism that it appears misleading, whatever their intention. I wouldn't make the accusation that it was dishonest yet because that will look like politics as normal.

If I were Starmer, I'd be looking to use this as an opportunity to start repetition branding this Government as dishonest. Don't attack the number of tests, go with, "If they'd just announced they'd done 70k then I'd be standing up and applauding the impressive increase. Why did they feel they had to lie? An international emergency is no time for exaggeration and untruths in order to make them look better."

He's an unknown quantity to the average spod, but he can gain a reputation as "honest and reliable" by consistently repeating that the government are dishonest, continually pointing out the exaggerations under the guise of trying to support the Covid Response but disliking that political spin is being imparted by the government, and getting it into the public consciousness that they are not to be trusted. As long as he doesn't get caught in a lie himself, he'll be able to go into the next election as "the trustworthy one" which will be something of an asset against Boris.

Puja

He’s every right to call this out and should do. To undertake a tactic to go on repeated attacks at a time when govt control over the pop is hugely critical is dangerous. We need the country to act on govt advice if we are to get through this. Let’s remember that when the govt first set out social distancing measures people took this to mean to go to beauty spots and beaches just to not practise social distancing advice and, as a whole, the pop under reacted against govt modelling. People listening and acting on govt advice, and let’s remember that advice is born in SAGE not Boris’s kitchen table, is crucial and potentially undermining this is dangerous. Let’s also remember that the biggest culprit for the low number of tests is PHE and that testing has only cranked up once it was taken out of their control/they reluctantly decided to use private providers. The 100k was arbitrary bs and the announcement yesterday more bs but to lay this solely at the feet of politicians is wrong.

It really isn't. The politicians are and have been in control throughout. It's just that they have only taken their fingers out of their arses in the past 6 weeks or so. PHE only has the money the politicians allow it so running off to private providers was always going to need the politicians involvement. However you're absolutely right about the importance of the government messaging being right and them being seen to be honest for us to be able to get through this.

Reports that SAGE had to bumped into agreeing to/recommending social distancing measures and that Jnr ministers are unhappy that Snr ministers are enthral to SAGE Politicians make the ultimate decision but that decision will rest on the advice they receive. To say anything else is plain wrong.
Don’t see/agree with the PHE and money argument.

[Banquo]

First, the scaling up in the last week has been really impressive. In fact since the government woke up they have done a half-decent job. Far from perfect but credit where it's due.

Apparently there has been no change in how they've calculated the numbers, which means that they've always been giving a false impression. The other problem is that apparently (some tweets suggest anyway) at least some of those tests sent out have had no return address and the advice that they were given was simply to bin the test.

If I were Starmer, I'd be looking to use this as an opportunity to start repetition branding this Government as dishonest. Don't attack the number of tests, go with, "If they'd just announced they'd done 70k then I'd be standing up and applauding the impressive increase. Why did they feel they had to lie? An international emergency is no time for exaggeration and untruths in order to make them look better."

He's an unknown quantity to the average spod, but he can gain a reputation as "honest and reliable" by consistently repeating that the government are dishonest, continually pointing out the exaggerations under the guise of trying to support the Covid Response but disliking that political spin is being imparted by the government, and getting it into the public consciousness that they are not to be trusted. As long as he doesn't get caught in a lie himself, he'll be able to go into the next election as "the trustworthy one" which will be something of an asset against Boris.

Puja

I don't know if you've seen him in action in PMQs but he's been being scrupulously fair but absolutely forensic. It's been a superb example of how to do it. It is time to make the "more in sorrow than in anger" criticism that it appears misleading, whatever their intention. I wouldn't make the accusation that it was dishonest yet because that will look like politics as normal.

He’s every right to call this out and should do. To undertake a tactic to go on repeated attacks at a time when govt control over the pop is hugely critical is dangerous. We need the country to act on govt advice if we are to get through this. Let’s remember that when the govt first set out social distancing measures people took this to mean to go to beauty spots and beaches just to not practise social distancing advice and, as a whole, the pop under reacted against govt modelling. People listening and acting on govt advice, and let’s remember that advice is born in SAGE not Boris’s kitchen table, is crucial and potentially undermining this is dangerous. Let’s also remember that the biggest culprit for the low number of tests is PHE and that testing has only cranked up once it was taken out of their control/they reluctantly decided to use private providers. The 100k was arbitrary bs and the announcement yesterday more bs but to lay this solely at the feet of politicians is wrong.

It really isn't. The politicians are and have been in control throughout. It's just that they have only taken their fingers out of their arses in the past 6 weeks or so. PHE only has the money the politicians allow it so running off to private providers was always going to need the politicians involvement. However you're absolutely right about the importance of the government messaging being right and them being seen to be honest for us to be able to get through this.

Reports that SAGE had to bumped into agreeing to/recommending social distancing measures and that Jnr ministers are unhappy that Snr ministers are enthral to SAGE Politicians make the ultimate decision but that decision will rest on the advice they receive. To say anything else is plain wrong.
Don’t see/agree with the PHE and money argument.

Accountability v responsibility, govt accountable, PHE responsible. If PHE not fit for purpose, funding or otherwise, its the govt that is accountable for its failure.