COVID19

[Puja]

If you close of private healthcare, people will just travel for procedures. You’re not going to solve waiting times by making it 100% public.

And on schools, what about alternative schooling options? Surely the government doesn’t offer that for the same cost as “standard” education? And many children are much better off in alternative environments.

Back on topic, the government here have now split reporting. It’s now x cases in Budapest and y everywhere else. Which, considering they’re voters are everywhere Else and there are less than 100 deaths outside of Budapest... political games.

As Banquo says - you wouldn't start from here. The system is a mess and I'm not proposing just abruptly shutting the private option. However, I would have shutting them as a future ambition and be taking steps (like increasing the tax burden on the private options, increased pay/bonuses for medics who don't take private cases, etc.) to move to a position where it was possible.

What do you mean by alternative schooling options? Are you talking special needs or religious or streaming by intelligence or what?

Puja

People will still want to pay for better service, just now they’ll be going abroad for it and taking money out of the economy.

Alternative education means Waldorf(Steiner), Montessori, etc. they encourage critical and independent thinking and provide a different classroom environment better for many kids.

Would there really be service better enough to go abroad? Leaving the country for healthcare is a big barrier, especially if we're talking about a government that had to fund the public service properly as there'd be no alternative to relieve the pressure.

I do not know enough about Montessori or Waldorf schools to comment. Would they not be possible as a grant maintained system within a public education system or does their method of teaching require grotesque extra amounts of funding? If so, why are those children getting it?

Puja

[Digby]

Given that you traduce, rightly, every uttering from Trump's mouth, not sure its entirely reasonable to expect the government to respond to his gibberish and slam them if they don't. You are over-inferring.

I don't need our government to respond on the size of Trump's hands, inaugural crowd, whether he slept with a porn actress, whether people should drink bleach, whether sweeping forest floors is a good way to prevent forest fires, whether Mexico is purposefully sending rapists and serial killers to the USA...

I'm not asking them to respond to everything Trump says. But I am on this given it's important and specific around the origins of this disease, and that will feed into what we'll want to go and want to ask for in changes from China and others as well as changes ourselves. And for me it's going to be easier to do that the more we have a reputation of being open and honest and not pander to the conspiracy crowd.

I don't think they should slate Trump, not because Trump isn't a prat but because he's the leader of a foreign nation. They should respectfully disagree, concede Trump is correct (whether or not on a broken clock basis), or at least be very clear on what and how they think the origins are. I was listening to Ben Wallace earlier and his answer to whether he'd seen the 5-eyes security alliance report suggesting China had covered up and made worse this outbreak after having developed the virus in a lab in Wuhan was to say now wasn't the time time for an answer, and he wasn't going to speculate, and quite frankly that is disingenuous, he's not being asked to speculate, he's been asked to comment on what would be specific intelligence reports, and if he's not going to comment he's basically saying the British people don't at this time need to know about the origins of a disease having an enormous impact on the lives of everyone in the country. Maybe some people will take the view we just need to trust the government and row in behind whatever their assessment is on what we need to know right now and indeed pick this up after the event, or at least at a later stage during the event, I don't take that view, whatever the origins of this disease we should be getting truthful answers as of now - and that would hold even if Trump hadn't said a damn thing

Do you feel strongly about this
Surprised its taken you 3 days to get this riled, but thanks for finally sharing the context. What has Germany said about it, out of interest?

I do. And because you can take Trump out of the question and simply ask what are the origins of this, and given that feeds into what might (or should) come next it's very important. It's unfortunate Trump has created the potential for discomfort, but their duty to us should trump concerns about Trump

Germany had been pushing China to allow in scientists from the West to investigate the origins of the virus, citing a need to learn for future events. The EU have just come out and said the same thing with Ursula von der Leyen calling on China to participate in a joint investigation, so I would assume Germany is supporting the president of the Commission in that

[Banquo]

I don't need our government to respond on the size of Trump's hands, inaugural crowd, whether he slept with a porn actress, whether people should drink bleach, whether sweeping forest floors is a good way to prevent forest fires, whether Mexico is purposefully sending rapists and serial killers to the USA...

I'm not asking them to respond to everything Trump says. But I am on this given it's important and specific around the origins of this disease, and that will feed into what we'll want to go and want to ask for in changes from China and others as well as changes ourselves. And for me it's going to be easier to do that the more we have a reputation of being open and honest and not pander to the conspiracy crowd.

I don't think they should slate Trump, not because Trump isn't a prat but because he's the leader of a foreign nation. They should respectfully disagree, concede Trump is correct (whether or not on a broken clock basis), or at least be very clear on what and how they think the origins are. I was listening to Ben Wallace earlier and his answer to whether he'd seen the 5-eyes security alliance report suggesting China had covered up and made worse this outbreak after having developed the virus in a lab in Wuhan was to say now wasn't the time time for an answer, and he wasn't going to speculate, and quite frankly that is disingenuous, he's not being asked to speculate, he's been asked to comment on what would be specific intelligence reports, and if he's not going to comment he's basically saying the British people don't at this time need to know about the origins of a disease having an enormous impact on the lives of everyone in the country. Maybe some people will take the view we just need to trust the government and row in behind whatever their assessment is on what we need to know right now and indeed pick this up after the event, or at least at a later stage during the event, I don't take that view, whatever the origins of this disease we should be getting truthful answers as of now - and that would hold even if Trump hadn't said a damn thing

Do you feel strongly about this
Surprised its taken you 3 days to get this riled, but thanks for finally sharing the context. What has Germany said about it, out of interest?

I do. And because you can take Trump out of the question and simply ask what are the origins of this, and given that feeds into what might (or should) come next it's very important. It's unfortunate Trump has created the potential for discomfort, but their duty to us should trump concerns about Trump

Germany had been pushing China to allow in scientists from the West to investigate the origins of the virus, citing a need to learn for future events. The EU have just come out and said the same thing with Ursula von der Leyen calling on China to participate in a joint investigation, so I would assume Germany is supporting the president of the Commission in that

Ok, so what has the EU's formal response to Trump been? You seem to have moved the goal posts.

[Stom]

As Banquo says - you wouldn't start from here. The system is a mess and I'm not proposing just abruptly shutting the private option. However, I would have shutting them as a future ambition and be taking steps (like increasing the tax burden on the private options, increased pay/bonuses for medics who don't take private cases, etc.) to move to a position where it was possible.

What do you mean by alternative schooling options? Are you talking special needs or religious or streaming by intelligence or what?

Puja

People will still want to pay for better service, just now they’ll be going abroad for it and taking money out of the economy.

Alternative education means Waldorf(Steiner), Montessori, etc. they encourage critical and independent thinking and provide a different classroom environment better for many kids.

Would there really be service better enough to go abroad? Leaving the country for healthcare is a big barrier, especially if we're talking about a government that had to fund the public service properly as there'd be no alternative to relieve the pressure.

I do not know enough about Montessori or Waldorf schools to comment. Would they not be possible as a grant maintained system within a public education system or does their method of teaching require grotesque extra amounts of funding? If so, why are those children getting it?

Puja

Put simply, yes. Remember, thousands of Brits currently go abroad for dental care. Extend the situation around dentistry to the rest of healthcare and they'll do the same.

Remember what state education is meant to provide...it's a system to create workers, not independent thinkers. It's why there's no classes on entrepreneurship, balancing a budget, nothing. The system is created to maintain a system. Sure, that system may be out of date, but they're not going to want to change it.

And, without any "conspiracy theories", the government did try to bring Waldorf into UK state education and it failed badly. The people running the schools felt attacked over criteria that threatened the basic tenets of Waldorf education and pushed back hard on other areas, creating a pretty terrible system. Considering the people running the school were not Waldorf educated themselves, it wasn't the best setup.

The main points of contention are testing - Waldorf definitely does not believe in it, neither do I, which is one reason my kids are Waldorf kids - special needs students - Waldorf isn't really made for them, as they need specific, individual care, whereas the system in Waldorf is around common activities - and "health and safety" - the kids are encouraged to do things that would be considered a health and safety risk in modern state schooling, such as climbing trees.

It doesn't fit into the system very well. Montessori is closer to the state system, but also has issues in being a part of a universal school system.

Also, in the UK, Steiner (Waldorf) is expensive. Nurseries were £300 a month when I last heard, and that was a good 5 years ago. I pay around £100.

[Digby]

Do you feel strongly about this
Surprised its taken you 3 days to get this riled, but thanks for finally sharing the context. What has Germany said about it, out of interest?

I do. And because you can take Trump out of the question and simply ask what are the origins of this, and given that feeds into what might (or should) come next it's very important. It's unfortunate Trump has created the potential for discomfort, but their duty to us should trump concerns about Trump

Germany had been pushing China to allow in scientists from the West to investigate the origins of the virus, citing a need to learn for future events. The EU have just come out and said the same thing with Ursula von der Leyen calling on China to participate in a joint investigation, so I would assume Germany is supporting the president of the Commission in that

Ok, so what has the EU's formal response to Trump been? You seem to have moved the goal posts.

I don't know, but we've left the EU.

[Banquo]

I do. And because you can take Trump out of the question and simply ask what are the origins of this, and given that feeds into what might (or should) come next it's very important. It's unfortunate Trump has created the potential for discomfort, but their duty to us should trump concerns about Trump

Germany had been pushing China to allow in scientists from the West to investigate the origins of the virus, citing a need to learn for future events. The EU have just come out and said the same thing with Ursula von der Leyen calling on China to participate in a joint investigation, so I would assume Germany is supporting the president of the Commission in that

Ok, so what has the EU's formal response to Trump been? You seem to have moved the goal posts.

I don't know, but we've left the EU.

You don't say. But shouldn't it, or its sovereign nations, have responded by your yardstick? There is likely a reason they haven't.

[Digby]

Ok, so what has the EU's formal response to Trump been? You seem to have moved the goal posts.

I don't know, but we've left the EU.

You don't say. But shouldn't it, or its sovereign nations, have responded by your yardstick? There is likely a reason they haven't.

I will heartily agree they should. Or at least not respond to Trump and instead very clearly state the best they can what the origins are.

But I haven't heard anyone bar our own government comment since Trump's latest, and it's my government's response I've the most interest in as well as being the only government I actually follow in any detail. Trump is just there to laugh at.

[Banquo]

I don't know, but we've left the EU.

You don't say. But shouldn't it, or its sovereign nations, have responded by your yardstick? There is likely a reason they haven't.

I will heartily agree they should. Or at least not respond to Trump and instead very clearly state the best they can what the origins are.

But I haven't heard anyone bar our own government comment since Trump's latest, and it's my government's response I've the most interest in as well as being the only government I actually follow in any detail. Trump is just there to laugh at.

So this is entirely a reaction to an interview featuring Ben Wallace?

[Digby]

You don't say. But shouldn't it, or its sovereign nations, have responded by your yardstick? There is likely a reason they haven't.

I will heartily agree they should. Or at least not respond to Trump and instead very clearly state the best they can what the origins are.

But I haven't heard anyone bar our own government comment since Trump's latest, and it's my government's response I've the most interest in as well as being the only government I actually follow in any detail. Trump is just there to laugh at.

So this is entirely a reaction to an interview featuring Ben Wallace?

That and the non comments elsewhere

[Sandydragon]

People will still want to pay for better service, just now they’ll be going abroad for it and taking money out of the economy.

Alternative education means Waldorf(Steiner), Montessori, etc. they encourage critical and independent thinking and provide a different classroom environment better for many kids.

Would there really be service better enough to go abroad? Leaving the country for healthcare is a big barrier, especially if we're talking about a government that had to fund the public service properly as there'd be no alternative to relieve the pressure.

I do not know enough about Montessori or Waldorf schools to comment. Would they not be possible as a grant maintained system within a public education system or does their method of teaching require grotesque extra amounts of funding? If so, why are those children getting it?

Puja

Put simply, yes. Remember, thousands of Brits currently go abroad for dental care. Extend the situation around dentistry to the rest of healthcare and they'll do the same.

Remember what state education is meant to provide...it's a system to create workers, not independent thinkers. It's why there's no classes on entrepreneurship, balancing a budget, nothing. The system is created to maintain a system. Sure, that system may be out of date, but they're not going to want to change it.

And, without any "conspiracy theories", the government did try to bring Waldorf into UK state education and it failed badly. The people running the schools felt attacked over criteria that threatened the basic tenets of Waldorf education and pushed back hard on other areas, creating a pretty terrible system. Considering the people running the school were not Waldorf educated themselves, it wasn't the best setup.

The main points of contention are testing - Waldorf definitely does not believe in it, neither do I, which is one reason my kids are Waldorf kids - special needs students - Waldorf isn't really made for them, as they need specific, individual care, whereas the system in Waldorf is around common activities - and "health and safety" - the kids are encouraged to do things that would be considered a health and safety risk in modern state schooling, such as climbing trees.

It doesn't fit into the system very well. Montessori is closer to the state system, but also has issues in being a part of a universal school system.

Also, in the UK, Steiner (Waldorf) is expensive. Nurseries were £300 a month when I last heard, and that was a good 5 years ago. I pay around £100.

Thats cheap!

[Stom]

Would there really be service better enough to go abroad? Leaving the country for healthcare is a big barrier, especially if we're talking about a government that had to fund the public service properly as there'd be no alternative to relieve the pressure.

I do not know enough about Montessori or Waldorf schools to comment. Would they not be possible as a grant maintained system within a public education system or does their method of teaching require grotesque extra amounts of funding? If so, why are those children getting it?

Puja

Put simply, yes. Remember, thousands of Brits currently go abroad for dental care. Extend the situation around dentistry to the rest of healthcare and they'll do the same.

Remember what state education is meant to provide...it's a system to create workers, not independent thinkers. It's why there's no classes on entrepreneurship, balancing a budget, nothing. The system is created to maintain a system. Sure, that system may be out of date, but they're not going to want to change it.

And, without any "conspiracy theories", the government did try to bring Waldorf into UK state education and it failed badly. The people running the schools felt attacked over criteria that threatened the basic tenets of Waldorf education and pushed back hard on other areas, creating a pretty terrible system. Considering the people running the school were not Waldorf educated themselves, it wasn't the best setup.

The main points of contention are testing - Waldorf definitely does not believe in it, neither do I, which is one reason my kids are Waldorf kids - special needs students - Waldorf isn't really made for them, as they need specific, individual care, whereas the system in Waldorf is around common activities - and "health and safety" - the kids are encouraged to do things that would be considered a health and safety risk in modern state schooling, such as climbing trees.

It doesn't fit into the system very well. Montessori is closer to the state system, but also has issues in being a part of a universal school system.

Also, in the UK, Steiner (Waldorf) is expensive. Nurseries were £300 a month when I last heard, and that was a good 5 years ago. I pay around £100.

Thats cheap!

Then maybe it’s dirt cheap, I have no idea about childcare expenses in the Uk :p

[Banquo]

Put simply, yes. Remember, thousands of Brits currently go abroad for dental care. Extend the situation around dentistry to the rest of healthcare and they'll do the same.

Remember what state education is meant to provide...it's a system to create workers, not independent thinkers. It's why there's no classes on entrepreneurship, balancing a budget, nothing. The system is created to maintain a system. Sure, that system may be out of date, but they're not going to want to change it.

And, without any "conspiracy theories", the government did try to bring Waldorf into UK state education and it failed badly. The people running the schools felt attacked over criteria that threatened the basic tenets of Waldorf education and pushed back hard on other areas, creating a pretty terrible system. Considering the people running the school were not Waldorf educated themselves, it wasn't the best setup.

The main points of contention are testing - Waldorf definitely does not believe in it, neither do I, which is one reason my kids are Waldorf kids - special needs students - Waldorf isn't really made for them, as they need specific, individual care, whereas the system in Waldorf is around common activities - and "health and safety" - the kids are encouraged to do things that would be considered a health and safety risk in modern state schooling, such as climbing trees.

It doesn't fit into the system very well. Montessori is closer to the state system, but also has issues in being a part of a universal school system.

Also, in the UK, Steiner (Waldorf) is expensive. Nurseries were £300 a month when I last heard, and that was a good 5 years ago. I pay around £100.

Thats cheap!

Then maybe it’s dirt cheap, I have no idea about childcare expenses in the Uk :p

about 200k and rising for my (lovely) daughter

[Stom]

Thats cheap!

Then maybe it’s dirt cheap, I have no idea about childcare expenses in the Uk :p

about 200k and rising for my (lovely) daughter

Well yeah, but that’s through nursery, primary and secondary... nursery should be cheaper than school.

It does add up quickly, that’s for sure.

[Puja]

Put simply, yes. Remember, thousands of Brits currently go abroad for dental care. Extend the situation around dentistry to the rest of healthcare and they'll do the same.

Remember what state education is meant to provide...it's a system to create workers, not independent thinkers. It's why there's no classes on entrepreneurship, balancing a budget, nothing. The system is created to maintain a system. Sure, that system may be out of date, but they're not going to want to change it.

And, without any "conspiracy theories", the government did try to bring Waldorf into UK state education and it failed badly. The people running the schools felt attacked over criteria that threatened the basic tenets of Waldorf education and pushed back hard on other areas, creating a pretty terrible system. Considering the people running the school were not Waldorf educated themselves, it wasn't the best setup.

The main points of contention are testing - Waldorf definitely does not believe in it, neither do I, which is one reason my kids are Waldorf kids - special needs students - Waldorf isn't really made for them, as they need specific, individual care, whereas the system in Waldorf is around common activities - and "health and safety" - the kids are encouraged to do things that would be considered a health and safety risk in modern state schooling, such as climbing trees.

It doesn't fit into the system very well. Montessori is closer to the state system, but also has issues in being a part of a universal school system.

Also, in the UK, Steiner (Waldorf) is expensive. Nurseries were £300 a month when I last heard, and that was a good 5 years ago. I pay around £100.

Thats cheap!

Then maybe it’s dirt cheap, I have no idea about childcare expenses in the Uk :p

Yeah, nursery is another area which is currently broken. Not enough places, not enough free hours, the free hours that exist are reimbursed by the government at such a low rate that nurseries are losing money - it's a shit-show that results in ridiculous waiting lists, blatantly discriminatory policies, and good nurseries being able to charge whatever the hell they like.

Puja

[Stom]

Thats cheap!

Then maybe it’s dirt cheap, I have no idea about childcare expenses in the Uk :p

Yeah, nursery is another area which is currently broken. Not enough places, not enough free hours, the free hours that exist are reimbursed by the government at such a low rate that nurseries are losing money - it's a shit-show that results in ridiculous waiting lists, blatantly discriminatory policies, and good nurseries being able to charge whatever the hell they like.

Puja

And nursery means something different for you guys considering school starts at 5 or even earlier. My daughter will only go to school next year, when she’s 7.

[Sandydragon]

Thats cheap!

Then maybe it’s dirt cheap, I have no idea about childcare expenses in the Uk :p

Yeah, nursery is another area which is currently broken. Not enough places, not enough free hours, the free hours that exist are reimbursed by the government at such a low rate that nurseries are losing money - it's a shit-show that results in ridiculous waiting lists, blatantly discriminatory policies, and good nurseries being able to charge whatever the hell they like.

Puja

Our nursery bill was about £450 per month (not full time days) until the 30 hours per week free care became available.

Almost wasn’t worth my wife going back to work.

[Mikey Brown]

[Son of Mathonwy]

.5% of what??

[Son of Mathonwy]

I find this quite depressing:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ate-sector

[canta_brian]

[Mellsblue]

Ah, the dangers of jumping to conclusions before you have all the facts......
Are Spain and Italy now reporting COVID deaths in social care?

[Which Tyler]

Latest from the ONS (today's update) - excess deaths up to 26/04/20
For the record (as the FT measure this); the UK has suffered 38,554 extra deaths since the crisis started - an increase of 61.7%

LINKY


FT's tracking of similar figures as a comparison - not updated since 01/05/20 (with different countries releasing these figures on different days).

LINKY

[gransoporro]

There is a surge in cardiac arrest deaths. In NYC and in Italy.

My father is now getting better and will be released today from the hospital, however in his case the damage he suffered is mostly hearth and kidneys, while still being hospitalized for his difficulties breathing.

He never had hearth problems, and now doctors say he had a hearth congestive failure which they associate with COVID-19. And now they are mostly worried about his kidney functions.

It seems this virus can kill people in 3 different ways.

[morepork]

Hope he makes a full recovery mate. That's rough news about the unexpected cardiac issue. Talk about a steep learning curve...

[Son of Mathonwy]

Latest from the ONS (today's update) - excess deaths up to 26/04/20
For the record (as the FT measure this); the UK has suffered 38,554 extra deaths since the crisis started - an increase of 61.7%

FT's tracking of similar figures as a comparison - not updated since 01/05/20 (with different countries releasing these figures on different days).

Taking the newest ONS numbers I see:
Up to 24 Apr:
Gov UK Covid-19 deaths: 22,792
(ONS) All UK Covid-19 deaths: 29,912
So the total UK number is 31.2% higher than the Gov number. (this is up from 23.9% surprisingly - I thought they would grow closer with time)

Assuming this ratio holds to date, we have as of 4 May:
Gov UK Covid-19 deaths: 28,734
All UK Covid-19 deaths (extrapolated): 37,710

Ultimately a more important number is the excess deaths for any cause, if we assume Covid-19 is the main driver of the excess. Taking the ONS numbers for England and Wales to 24 Apr we have:
Covid-19 deaths: 27,273
Excess deaths compared with 5 year average: 38,368
We see that total excess deaths are 40.7% higher than ONS reported Covid-19 deaths. (this is virtually unchanged)

Assuming this ratio holds to date, we have as of 4 May:
All UK excess deaths (presumably due to Covid-19): 53,051
which is 85% greater than the reported Government number. (up from 74% a week ago)