Snap General Election called

[Stones of granite]

So the talk of tax cuts was shelved today, to bring it out at the opportune moment, or has Boris gone back on his word already?

It will be explained away by semantics as in “We send the EU £350 million a week. Let’s fund our NHS instead.” actually meaning something like "we're going to give the money to our mates".

[Stones of granite]

The famous message on the side of the bus:

“We send the EU £350 million a week. Let’s fund our NHS instead.”

Some excerpts from BoJo's first speech on the steps of Downing St.

"So let us begin work now to create free ports that will drive growth from thousands of high skilled jobs in left-behind areas.Let's start now."

"To liberate the UK’s extraordinary bioscience sector from anti genetic modification rules and let us develop the blight resistant crops that will feed the world. "

"Let's get going now on our own position, navigation and timing, satellite and Earth observation systems."

"Let's change the tax rules to provide extra incentives to invest in capital and research."

"And let's promote the welfare of animals that has always been so close to the hearts of the British people."

"And yes, let's start now on those free trade deals because it is free trade that have done more than anything else to lift billions out of poverty."

Familiar language, and almost certainly all just as phoney.

[Puja]

He has got a point on GMO rules (broken clock) and, even weirder than that, he'd be right in saying it's not something we could do inside the EU. Far too many regulations are written with the populist fear of anything GM in mind and running it through 27 vetoes is bound to see someone give into the "5G gives the cancers" style groups.

On everything else though, complete mince.

Puja

[Stones of granite]

He has got a point on GMO rules (broken clock) and, even weirder than that, he'd be right in saying it's not something we could do inside the EU. Far too many regulations are written with the populist fear of anything GM in mind and running it through 27 vetoes is bound to see someone give into the "5G gives the cancers" style groups.

On everything else though, complete mince.

Puja

It wasn't so much the content that I was commenting on as the style of delivery. He, and the Brexit camp have successfully wriggled out of the bus message claiming that it doesn't promise what it seems to, so how can we be expected to believe anything else delivered in the same style?

As far as the content goes, I have my own opinions on what he actually means.

Free ports - nice sound bite, but I can't see how that it is going to create "high skilled jobs in left behind areas". This one will quietly disappear

GMO crops - no idea, not my area of expertise, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is a cover for allowing more imports of GM produce from the US

British GNSS system - not a hope in hell. These systems cost about $10bn to develop and over £1bn/year to run. The expertise to do this (apart from the launch vehicles) exists in the UK, and a single country can probably make a better fist of it than the Galileo shambles, but the idea won't survive first analysis by the treasury.

Tax rules - this is a cert., and we all know why

Animal welfare - the fragrant Cassie is reportedly big on this, so his shagging rights probably depend on it

Free trade deals - Trump is probably dictating it now, by twitter

[Digby]

Has Boris found a magic money tree? We can't afford all that even before restoring police numbers back where they were, increasing public sector pay, making tax cuts, and why if the Tories want to do all this now have they been so pro austerity for so long? Lurching around between policy positions like a drunk is no way to run a country.

Also most of his list in no way needs Brexit, just sayin'

[fivepointer]

Plausible scenario sketched out here - https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1154 ... 05440.html

This may well be nonsense (it was ever thus...); but PM Johnson seems to have a plan. It gives me no pleasure to say this, but it will be difficult to stop.
The plan is not what some might expect. He is more interested in power than in Brexit. His aim (so I argue here) is to fight, and win, a GE, and to obtain a mandate for the next five years.
The way he approaches Brexit should not be seen as cakeist and naive. In policy terms it is: but the thing is that his Brexit plan is not intended to succeed. Instead, it is only intended to create the narrative around which a GE can be won.
First, he will go 'our EU friends', appealing to their economic self-interest, demanding things he knows he cannot get. He will present himself as a 'can-do dealer'... whose plan has only been thwarted by intransigence in Brussels.
Watch for the sharp shift in tone (which will come when the time is judged to be right). Erstwhile friends in the EU will become public enemy number one. The UK will be strong and confident. In extremis, we go it alone, and leave without a deal.
But the plan is not to leave without a deal in October. That, as he knows, would cause huge disruption, and would not augur well for him as PM. The plan is to be ready to leave... but then to be thwarted by public enemy number two, the remainer Parliament.
He will provoke the moderate Tories. He probably knows that they require quite a lot of provoking. He will not seek to undermine the confidence of the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. But he will starve the Brexit Party of political space.
He wants to be able to fight a general election, as the man who is standing up for the British people; against the twin evils of the EU and the remain establishment. Vote Leave (and Dom Cummings) have, remember, done this unexpectedly successfully once before.
To win, he needs to neuter the Brexit Party (I suspect that the jury is out on whether to offer some sort of pact or to opt for a more aggressive strategy), and bank on the fact that the 'remain' opposition will remain disunited.
All this points, as I said a couple of days ago, to an Autumn general election. It is consistent with the UK's inability to concretise Brexit - both his 'new deal' and his 'no deal' will remain stubbornly undefined until after the GE.
He has a good chance of success. The difficult task of delivering Brexit is deferred to the far side of a general election... and by then, who knows what the options may be. He can cross that bridge when he comes to it.
The easiest way to stop this plan is to prevent him from winning the GE. That depends on the opposition working together. Looking at the relationships between Corbyn, Sturgeon, Swinson and Lucas; Johnson might well calculate that he has nothing to fear.

[Digby]

Also lets start now on those free trade deals? what the actual? what have they been doing for several years now, and actually if we no deal the EU everyone else is then going to wait for an EU deal to emerge and say we at least want those terms, or only agree earlier if the deal hugely skews their way. This thinking has more holes than a colander

[Digby]

The easiest way to stop this plan is to prevent him from winning the GE. That depends on the opposition working together. Looking at the relationships between Corbyn, Sturgeon, Swinson and Lucas; Johnson might well calculate that he has nothing to fear.

Corbyn, and his lefty lunatics remain a giant turd shat over our political landscape, but beyond that there's a fair chance Ruth Davidson's name should be added to that list of opposition leaders that Boris needs to consider

[Stones of granite]

The easiest way to stop this plan is to prevent him from winning the GE. That depends on the opposition working together. Looking at the relationships between Corbyn, Sturgeon, Swinson and Lucas; Johnson might well calculate that he has nothing to fear.

Corbyn, and his lefty lunatics remain a giant turd shat over our political landscape, but beyond that there's a fair chance Ruth Davidson's name should be added to that list of opposition leaders that Boris needs to consider

Yes, there is going to be (already is) considerable friction between Ruthy and BoJo. Boris has attempted to address this by replacing Mundell, a close ally of Ruthy, with Alister Jack as Scottish Secretary.
I don't know much about Jack, but he does seem to be a hardline Brexiteer, despite representing a Remain constituency, albeit one with one of the narrowest margins in Scotland in the Referendum He also comes across as a bit old-money Scottish gentry, which probably plays well with BoJo but is certainly not Ruthy's cup of tea.

[Mellsblue]

Free ports are supported by the Power Up The North campaign and the Northern Powerhouse Partnership and their left of centre leaders, as well as maritime/ports groups, associations etc. They are also already up and running in the US so not sure why the EU are moaning it’s incompatible with a free trade deal. There is research out there saying they will create jobs and boost port economies, which is desperately needed, though, ironically, from solidly right of centre think tanks. It was also brought up repeatedly during the referendum campaign so shouldn’t come as a surprise.

We aren’t allowed to negotiate FTA’s whilst in the EU. Boris obviously doesn’t want to play nicely on this, unlike the previous govt.

Yep. Looks like austerity is over. May did state this at conference last year. I thought those left on centre would be applauding this.

Relaxing/removing GM regs was also widely trailed as a post-Brexit move so I’m also not sure why this has come as a surprise. Actually, there is nothing in that list that should come as a surprise and hasn’t been explicitly stated many times.

[Digby]

Free ports seem a give with one hand take with another solution, hard to say on balance if it changes much in itself. If we integrate them with suitable training and support for industries likely to take best advantage of free ports that might see us derive a net positive result, but I'm not holding my breath

And we can negotiate deals for when we leave, practically who would be stopping us? Indeed I'm sure we have been trying, just we've been so successful we haven't seen Fox or DD conclude they need to tell anyone the results

[Stones of granite]

In my somewhat limited understanding of the topic, a free port is simply a small special economic zone which effectively lies outside of a countries normal customs boundary. If this is correct, then why could we not simply designate all of Northern Ireland as a free port, or at least the border crossing points, and avoid the whole NI issue.

[Mellsblue]

Free ports seem a give with one hand take with another solution, hard to say on balance if it changes much in itself. If we integrate them with suitable training and support for industries likely to take best advantage of free ports that might see us derive a net positive result, but I'm not holding my breath

And we can negotiate deals for when we leave, practically who would be stopping us? Indeed I'm sure we have been trying, just we've been so successful we haven't seen Fox or DD conclude they need to tell anyone the results

Nope. EU rules state no negotiation even if not implemented whilst in the EU.

[Puja]

In my somewhat limited understanding of the topic, a free port is simply a small special economic zone which effectively lies outside of a countries normal customs boundary. If this is correct, then why could we not simply designate all of Northern Ireland as a free port, or at least the border crossing points, and avoid the whole NI issue.

The Northern Irish (or, at least, the DUP) have said it's unacceptable to have barriers put up between N.Ireland and the rest of the UK, as it's one step closer to a schism.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

In my somewhat limited understanding of the topic, a free port is simply a small special economic zone which effectively lies outside of a countries normal customs boundary. If this is correct, then why could we not simply designate all of Northern Ireland as a free port, or at least the border crossing points, and avoid the whole NI issue.

Because free ports would be under UK tariff regime not the EU’s.

[Stones of granite]

In my somewhat limited understanding of the topic, a free port is simply a small special economic zone which effectively lies outside of a countries normal customs boundary. If this is correct, then why could we not simply designate all of Northern Ireland as a free port, or at least the border crossing points, and avoid the whole NI issue.

The Northern Irish (or, at least, the DUP) have said it's unacceptable to have barriers put up between N.Ireland and the rest of the UK, as it's one step closer to a schism.

Puja

So, there won't be any free ports in Northern Ireland? It will be fine for, say Middlesborough, Newcastle, Liverpool but not Belfast or Derry?

In my somewhat limited understanding of the topic, a free port is simply a small special economic zone which effectively lies outside of a countries normal customs boundary. If this is correct, then why could we not simply designate all of Northern Ireland as a free port, or at least the border crossing points, and avoid the whole NI issue.

Because free ports would be under UK tariff regime not the EU’s.

After making my previous post, I invoked some google-fu and found that the suggestion had already been made by the Adam Smith Institute.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/a-freepo ... rn-ireland

The UK could, simultaneously with the passing of the Brexit deal, also pass an Act committing it to granting Northern Ireland Freeport status at the end of the transition period if no free trade agreement with the EU had been signed. If a free trade agreement were signed, then no backstop would be needed because goods could flow freely across the border.

If no free trade deal were agreed, however, the granting of Freeport status to Northern Ireland would mean that goods from outside could enter tariff-free, unilaterally removing the requirement for a backstop. Northern Ireland would not need to be part of the Customs Union because the border between North and South would remain open to goods. Once it has left the EU, the UK will be free to set up Freeports wherever it wishes.

It would be entirely up to the Republic of Ireland and the rest of the EU, to decide how to respond to this UK initiative, but it would be hugely advantageous to Northern Ireland and would boost both cross border traffic and inward investment. The DUP would almost certainly endorse it enthusiastically, given the shot in the arm it would impart to the Northern Irish economy.

I don't know whether their conclusions are right or wrong, but it certainly seems to confirm my own rather simplistic thoughts on it.

[Puja]

Free ports are supported by the Power Up The North campaign and the Northern Powerhouse Partnership and their left of centre leaders, as well as maritime/ports groups, associations etc. They are also already up and running in the US so not sure why the EU are moaning it’s incompatible with a free trade deal. There is research out there saying they will create jobs and boost port economies, which is desperately needed, though, ironically, from solidly right of centre think tanks. It was also brought up repeatedly during the referendum campaign so shouldn’t come as a surprise.

We aren’t allowed to negotiate FTA’s whilst in the EU. Boris obviously doesn’t want to play nicely on this, unlike the previous govt.

Yep. Looks like austerity is over. May did state this at conference last year. I thought those left on centre would be applauding this.

Relaxing/removing GM regs was also widely trailed as a post-Brexit move so I’m also not sure why this has come as a surprise. Actually, there is nothing in that list that should come as a surprise and hasn’t been explicitly stated many times.

I'm not sure about free ports. They seem to me to be another example of the economic theory that cutting taxes will create new growth, whereas recent history has suggested that it's more likely to result in more dividends.

Austerity being over is great, but it depends what you mean by austerity. Is money being spent on infrastructure projects, local services, house building, the NHS? Maybe the latter might see some love as it'd be populist, but the early intervention and support services which were slashed to the bone aren't coming back. It's a very Conservative end to austerity - cut taxes, cut regulation, employ 20,000 more police to try and crack down on the crime wave rather than investing in young people, education, and deprived areas to cut it off at source. The problem with "the free market will provide everything" approach is that it ignores that the free market will provide the most immediately profitable result, not the best one, or even the most profitable long-term.

Puja

[Puja]

In my somewhat limited understanding of the topic, a free port is simply a small special economic zone which effectively lies outside of a countries normal customs boundary. If this is correct, then why could we not simply designate all of Northern Ireland as a free port, or at least the border crossing points, and avoid the whole NI issue.

The Northern Irish (or, at least, the DUP) have said it's unacceptable to have barriers put up between N.Ireland and the rest of the UK, as it's one step closer to a schism.

Puja

So, there won't be any free ports in Northern Ireland? It will be fine for, say Middlesborough, Newcastle, Liverpool but not Belfast or Derry?

In my somewhat limited understanding of the topic, a free port is simply a small special economic zone which effectively lies outside of a countries normal customs boundary. If this is correct, then why could we not simply designate all of Northern Ireland as a free port, or at least the border crossing points, and avoid the whole NI issue.

Because free ports would be under UK tariff regime not the EU’s.

After making my previous post, I invoked some google-fu and found that the suggestion had already been made by the Adam Smith Institute.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/a-freepo ... rn-ireland

The UK could, simultaneously with the passing of the Brexit deal, also pass an Act committing it to granting Northern Ireland Freeport status at the end of the transition period if no free trade agreement with the EU had been signed. If a free trade agreement were signed, then no backstop would be needed because goods could flow freely across the border.

If no free trade deal were agreed, however, the granting of Freeport status to Northern Ireland would mean that goods from outside could enter tariff-free, unilaterally removing the requirement for a backstop. Northern Ireland would not need to be part of the Customs Union because the border between North and South would remain open to goods. Once it has left the EU, the UK will be free to set up Freeports wherever it wishes.

It would be entirely up to the Republic of Ireland and the rest of the EU, to decide how to respond to this UK initiative, but it would be hugely advantageous to Northern Ireland and would boost both cross border traffic and inward investment. The DUP would almost certainly endorse it enthusiastically, given the shot in the arm it would impart to the Northern Irish economy.

I don't know whether their conclusions are right or wrong, but it certainly seems to confirm my own rather simplistic thoughts on it.

A free port in N.Ireland would be fine. A free port of N.Ireland is problematic to the unionists, because it puts a wall between them and the rest of the UK. And it would only solve half the problem anyway, as it would only account for goods going into NI. Goods going from NI to Ireland would require checks unless NI was in regulatory alignment with the EU (already rejected because NI don't want to be separated from the rest of the UK).

Puja

[morepork]

Biotech will see this clown coming a mile off. By far the lions share of the effort has gone into pesticide resistance as far as GMO goes. Any motivation for disease resistance will be dictated by the intellectual property up for grabs. Industry can definitely make a positive contribution to health and medicine, and have the resources to do so, but blanket deregulation will just result in clearing the way to ownership of IP without necessarily providing an actual “product”. Boris not the one to harness this particular beast.

[Mellsblue]

In my somewhat limited understanding of the topic, a free port is simply a small special economic zone which effectively lies outside of a countries normal customs boundary. If this is correct, then why could we not simply designate all of Northern Ireland as a free port, or at least the border crossing points, and avoid the whole NI issue.

The Northern Irish (or, at least, the DUP) have said it's unacceptable to have barriers put up between N.Ireland and the rest of the UK, as it's one step closer to a schism.

Puja

So, there won't be any free ports in Northern Ireland? It will be fine for, say Middlesborough, Newcastle, Liverpool but not Belfast or Derry?

In my somewhat limited understanding of the topic, a free port is simply a small special economic zone which effectively lies outside of a countries normal customs boundary. If this is correct, then why could we not simply designate all of Northern Ireland as a free port, or at least the border crossing points, and avoid the whole NI issue.

Because free ports would be under UK tariff regime not the EU’s.

After making my previous post, I invoked some google-fu and found that the suggestion had already been made by the Adam Smith Institute.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/a-freepo ... rn-ireland

The UK could, simultaneously with the passing of the Brexit deal, also pass an Act committing it to granting Northern Ireland Freeport status at the end of the transition period if no free trade agreement with the EU had been signed. If a free trade agreement were signed, then no backstop would be needed because goods could flow freely across the border.

If no free trade deal were agreed, however, the granting of Freeport status to Northern Ireland would mean that goods from outside could enter tariff-free, unilaterally removing the requirement for a backstop. Northern Ireland would not need to be part of the Customs Union because the border between North and South would remain open to goods. Once it has left the EU, the UK will be free to set up Freeports wherever it wishes.

It would be entirely up to the Republic of Ireland and the rest of the EU, to decide how to respond to this UK initiative, but it would be hugely advantageous to Northern Ireland and would boost both cross border traffic and inward investment. The DUP would almost certainly endorse it enthusiastically, given the shot in the arm it would impart to the Northern Irish economy.

I don't know whether their conclusions are right or wrong, but it certainly seems to confirm my own rather simplistic thoughts on it.

That’s pretty much the argument that the UK ignore the border question at all and make it the EU’s dilemma. Which is basically the same argument that we don’t pay them the ‘divorce bill’ if they don’t give us a deal. The ASI are big brexiteers.

[Digby]

Free ports seem a give with one hand take with another solution, hard to say on balance if it changes much in itself. If we integrate them with suitable training and support for industries likely to take best advantage of free ports that might see us derive a net positive result, but I'm not holding my breath

And we can negotiate deals for when we leave, practically who would be stopping us? Indeed I'm sure we have been trying, just we've been so successful we haven't seen Fox or DD conclude they need to tell anyone the results

Nope. EU rules state no negotiation even if not implemented whilst in the EU.

They do, but you have the talks anyway and say you're discussing something else if asked. Does anyone think we haven't been having these talks and doing just that?

[Mellsblue]

Free ports are supported by the Power Up The North campaign and the Northern Powerhouse Partnership and their left of centre leaders, as well as maritime/ports groups, associations etc. They are also already up and running in the US so not sure why the EU are moaning it’s incompatible with a free trade deal. There is research out there saying they will create jobs and boost port economies, which is desperately needed, though, ironically, from solidly right of centre think tanks. It was also brought up repeatedly during the referendum campaign so shouldn’t come as a surprise.

We aren’t allowed to negotiate FTA’s whilst in the EU. Boris obviously doesn’t want to play nicely on this, unlike the previous govt.

Yep. Looks like austerity is over. May did state this at conference last year. I thought those left on centre would be applauding this.

Relaxing/removing GM regs was also widely trailed as a post-Brexit move so I’m also not sure why this has come as a surprise. Actually, there is nothing in that list that should come as a surprise and hasn’t been explicitly stated many times.

I'm not sure about free ports. They seem to me to be another example of the economic theory that cutting taxes will create new growth, whereas recent history has suggested that it's more likely to result in more dividends.

Austerity being over is great, but it depends what you mean by austerity. Is money being spent on infrastructure projects, local services, house building, the NHS? Maybe the latter might see some love as it'd be populist, but the early intervention and support services which were slashed to the bone aren't coming back. It's a very Conservative end to austerity - cut taxes, cut regulation, employ 20,000 more police to try and crack down on the crime wave rather than investing in young people, education, and deprived areas to cut it off at source. The problem with "the free market will provide everything" approach is that it ignores that the free market will provide the most immediately profitable result, not the best one, or even the most profitable long-term.

Puja

Free ports are tariff areas where UK tariffs are only applied onc inside the UK and outside the free port area. The idea is that goods can be brought in, put through a free port factory and the resulting good be sent back out of the UK tariff free or be subject to UK tariffs if entering the UK market. As far as I know, which is nothing beyond the basics, there are no tax cuts.

The argument is whether it’s a surprise that Boris has promised to spend, spend, spend, not how to spend, spend, spend. However, a splurge on the NHS was already promised under May and Boris hasn’t mentioned any tax cuts since assuming office (that I’ve heard). He has said he’ll increase education spending (about effing time) and the whole idea of free ports is to bring jobs and investment to deprived areas. It’s a Conservative govt you have to expect market solutions not state solutions. If you want are argue how extra spending should be used then that’s a wholly different point to the one I was making and a wholly different conversation.

[Mellsblue]

Free ports seem a give with one hand take with another solution, hard to say on balance if it changes much in itself. If we integrate them with suitable training and support for industries likely to take best advantage of free ports that might see us derive a net positive result, but I'm not holding my breath

And we can negotiate deals for when we leave, practically who would be stopping us? Indeed I'm sure we have been trying, just we've been so successful we haven't seen Fox or DD conclude they need to tell anyone the results

Nope. EU rules state no negotiation even if not implemented whilst in the EU.

They do, but you have the talks anyway and say you're discussing something else if asked. Does anyone think we haven't been having these talks and doing just that?

I do.

[Digby]

Nope. EU rules state no negotiation even if not implemented whilst in the EU.

They do, but you have the talks anyway and say you're discussing something else if asked. Does anyone think we haven't been having these talks and doing just that?

I do.

In fairness the Brexiteers have been astutely following the rules all throughout this Brexit process, it was perhaps a touch outlandish to suggest they'd step outside the margins now.

[Mellsblue]

They do, but you have the talks anyway and say you're discussing something else if asked. Does anyone think we haven't been having these talks and doing just that?

I do.

In fairness the Brexiteers have been astutely following the rules all throughout this Brexit process, it was perhaps a touch outlandish to suggest they'd step outside the margins now.

Difficult to negotiate an FTA when we have no idea whether will be in the CU, SM, both, Canada ++ etc etc.