COVID19

[Galfon]

Antibody test (Roche) 100% successful, another step in the fight.
We'll just have to wait for meaningful data about immunity, but will be massive help for managing risk.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... k-11987924

[paddy no 11]

Do they have any timeline on that?

[Galfon]

Do they have any timeline on that?

from Indep:
'The Department of Health and Social Care is reportedly in negotiations with Roche to buy millions of the kits '
I believe the Germans are ahead in placing an order..

[Digby]

They would be, we took much longer to approve the Roche kit

[Galfon]

EU confimation 28 Apr, US last weekend - a bit behind but relying on own testing isn't a bad thing.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Do they have any timeline on that?

from Indep:
'The Department of Health and Social Care is reportedly in negotiations with Roche to buy millions of the kits '
I believe the Germans are ahead in placing an order..

Can you imagine how much Roche must be coining it?

Still, got to be done, we need this.

[paddy no 11]

Also got the tamiflu gig after buying patent from Gilead! Now there's a conspiracy - never mind your 5G

[Digby]

EU confimation 28 Apr, US last weekend - a bit behind but relying on own testing isn't a bad thing.

It's not like we started that length of time after the EU, we just took a lot longer about it. And I'm not condemning it, merely noting it, something to look back on for sure when we evaluate our decisions and execution.

I might not quite agree all these days later, and let's be honest all these days later than even the Trump administration, is only a bit behind. But there could be good reasons

[fivepointer]

Interesting.......https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... d14may2020

"The first national snapshot of Covid-19 rates has revealed that 148,000 people in England were infected with the virus over the past two weeks.

The study, by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), tested 10,705 people in more than 5,000 households and estimated 0.27% of the population in England were currently positive for Covid-19. The analysis suggests about 148,000 people across the entire population would have tested positive on any day between 27 April and 10 May 2020.

The findings will inform the government’s next steps as it considers whether it is safe enough to further ease restrictions on socialising, businesses and schools in the coming weeks. Experts suggest the current rates of infection remain “some way off” what would be needed to lift the lockdown"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -two-weeks

[Son of Mathonwy]

Interesting.......https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... d14may2020

"The first national snapshot of Covid-19 rates has revealed that 148,000 people in England were infected with the virus over the past two weeks.

The study, by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), tested 10,705 people in more than 5,000 households and estimated 0.27% of the population in England were currently positive for Covid-19. The analysis suggests about 148,000 people across the entire population would have tested positive on any day between 27 April and 10 May 2020.

The findings will inform the government’s next steps as it considers whether it is safe enough to further ease restrictions on socialising, businesses and schools in the coming weeks. Experts suggest the current rates of infection remain “some way off” what would be needed to lift the lockdown"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -two-weeks

When the Mail reported that, they also roped in the study from a month back which suggested up to a third of the population had been infected at that point. And they put that number in the headline.

[Lizard]

3 consecutive days of 0 new cases here. 65 active cases. And most importantly, SCHOOL IS OPEN ON MONDAY!

[Son of Mathonwy]

3 consecutive days of 0 new cases here. 65 active cases. And most importantly, SCHOOL IS OPEN ON MONDAY!

Well done, you have competent leaders. Could we borrow some?

[zer0]

Having a 2,000 km wide moat also helps. That and being absent from many maps.

[Lizard]

3 consecutive days of 0 new cases here. 65 active cases. And most importantly, SCHOOL IS OPEN ON MONDAY!

Well done, you have competent leaders. Could we borrow some?

Jinxed it. 1 new case here today.

I find it interesting that the reaction from US and UK folk has been "Can we have your sensible leader?" rather than "Can we elect our own sensible person as leader." I mean I know it's tongue in cheek but it's a bit telling about distrust in the systems, isn't it?

[cashead]

3 consecutive days of 0 new cases here. 65 active cases. And most importantly, SCHOOL IS OPEN ON MONDAY!

Well done, you have competent leaders. Could we borrow some?

Jinxed it. 1 new case here today.

It is, and it isn't. Linked to the Marist cluster, and had been previously tested (where they returned a negative result), but had been self-isolating since lockdown kicked in, and is no longer symptomatic.

[cashead]

3 consecutive days of 0 new cases here. 65 active cases. And most importantly, SCHOOL IS OPEN ON MONDAY!

Yep, went into work today where we had a staff-wide meeting about procedures being put in place.

[cashead]

It's a video from Momentum, so keep that in mind, but it is pretty fucking damning for Bojo, the British Kwyjibo.



And for anyone that wants to use this argument:










Not that population and demographic statistics is relevant to the fact that the Covid-19 response by the Tories was completely botched, with an insane, and quite frankly, irresponsible and idiotic policy that has resulted in 40,000+ apparently, which, I guess from the comfort of a mostly non-Covid ravaged country, looked like

[Donny osmond]

The death rate in England is just massively weird. Even allowing for all the mistakes, there must be some unspecified reason why it's so high.

It's even way higher than Scotland, Wales or NI afaik, and there's no earthly reason I can find that's been discussed that explains that.

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[Banquo]

The death rate in England is just massively weird. Even allowing for all the mistakes, there must be some unspecified reason why it's so high.

It's even way higher than Scotland, Wales or NI afaik, and there's no earthly reason I can find that's been discussed that explains that.

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Some thoughts
1- Population health- death rate still hugely skewed to those with co-morbidities
2- COVID patients going into hospital too late; owing to 'protect the NHS' being over-sold possibly
3- False negatives being sent into the community, especially care homes
4- Infection control in hospitals- the already (non Covid) ill being infected in hospitals and sent out again, to both infect and get very ill themselves (see also 3)
5- ICU invasive treatment. 65% dying on ventilators. See point 2.

In the case of Germany, there was a definite difference in intensive care treatment; they imaged 'everyone's' lungs, and had individual proning plans (turning them a lot) and non-invasive oxygenation. Don't know about the population health there tbh, but there was talk that initially it was a much younger demographic said to have been infected, though that jars with the average age stat. The German system allows for more local flexibility, rather than the one-size fits all approach taken in England.

[Mellsblue]

The death rate in England is just massively weird. Even allowing for all the mistakes, there must be some unspecified reason why it's so high.

It's even way higher than Scotland, Wales or NI afaik, and there's no earthly reason I can find that's been discussed that explains that.

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London.

[Donny osmond]

The death rate in England is just massively weird. Even allowing for all the mistakes, there must be some unspecified reason why it's so high.

It's even way higher than Scotland, Wales or NI afaik, and there's no earthly reason I can find that's been discussed that explains that.

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London.

That would skew it, yes, but not to the degree we've seen. I'm thinking particularly about the diff between eng and Sco here.

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[Donny osmond]

All fair enough internationally, but I can't see them explaining the intra-UK differences.

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[Donny osmond]

All fair enough internationally, but I can't see them explaining the intra-UK differences.

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Sorry Banquo, this was in response to your post above.

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[Mellsblue]

The death rate in England is just massively weird. Even allowing for all the mistakes, there must be some unspecified reason why it's so high.

It's even way higher than Scotland, Wales or NI afaik, and there's no earthly reason I can find that's been discussed that explains that.

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London.

That would skew it, yes, but not to the degree we've seen. I'm thinking particularly about the diff between eng and Sco here.

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Which figures are you referencing?

London has everything against it:
Huge, densely populated city
Relatively high use of public transport
Global hub
Late into lockdown compared to rest of the country.

[Banquo]

All fair enough internationally, but I can't see them explaining the intra-UK differences.

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Layer on population densities then. Suspect you may have say a very high deathrate in Glasgow. Don't know about the role of care homes in the other countries and how they interact with the health system either.

Epidemic analysis by numbers is an area where we can all excel in conjecture and ignorance....see Neil Ferguson, and it was his job.