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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:45 pm
by Stom
Interesting with European countries trying to wean themselves off Russian gas, will that stretch toward Saudi oil and Chinese products, too? If it does, we could see a huge change in the fight against climate change, one that was unthinkable before this.

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:09 pm
by Banquo
Stom wrote:Interesting with European countries trying to wean themselves off Russian gas, will that stretch toward Saudi oil and Chinese products, too? If it does, we could see a huge change in the fight against climate change, one that was unthinkable before this.
the process needs kick starting as the reality is it will take decades to happen, even with huge goodwill. Its a massive opportunity though- green- the way I see it.

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:19 pm
by Sandydragon
Stom wrote:Interesting with European countries trying to wean themselves off Russian gas, will that stretch toward Saudi oil and Chinese products, too? If it does, we could see a huge change in the fight against climate change, one that was unthinkable before this.

Im not sure that too many governments will be keen to jump into bed with Chinese companies the way they were a decade ago. Green energy and nuclear would be the most obvious bets, although the latter takes decades to get from planning into reality. Green tech alone isnt the answer for right now and fracking is too sensitive. Saudi oil might be the stop-gap.

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:01 pm
by Banquo
Sandydragon wrote:
Stom wrote:Interesting with European countries trying to wean themselves off Russian gas, will that stretch toward Saudi oil and Chinese products, too? If it does, we could see a huge change in the fight against climate change, one that was unthinkable before this.

Im not sure that too many governments will be keen to jump into bed with Chinese companies the way they were a decade ago. Green energy and nuclear would be the most obvious bets, although the latter takes decades to get from planning into reality. Green tech alone isnt the answer for right now and fracking is too sensitive. Saudi oil might be the stop-gap.
I'd hope that most folks realise its not a binary situation by now.

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Mon Feb 28, 2022 5:59 pm
by Sandydragon
Banquo wrote:
Sandydragon wrote:
Stom wrote:Interesting with European countries trying to wean themselves off Russian gas, will that stretch toward Saudi oil and Chinese products, too? If it does, we could see a huge change in the fight against climate change, one that was unthinkable before this.

Im not sure that too many governments will be keen to jump into bed with Chinese companies the way they were a decade ago. Green energy and nuclear would be the most obvious bets, although the latter takes decades to get from planning into reality. Green tech alone isnt the answer for right now and fracking is too sensitive. Saudi oil might be the stop-gap.
I'd hope that most folks realise its not a binary situation by now.
It will need a blended approach and I don’t think any one solution has the answer.

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Mon Feb 28, 2022 9:18 pm
by Which Tyler

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 8:11 am
by Mellsblue
It was surely inevitable but here’s confirmation:


Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 8:12 am
by Sandydragon
Don’t agree with her. It’s been going on for much longer.

The Cold War was won largely by the BBC and others influencing Eastern Europeans, and the careful use of information to shape opinions is nothing new.

Many of the arguments used by Putin were rehearsed by Hitler so not much new there either.

Arguably her reaction is one of shock having finally woken up to the true motives of Putin.

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 8:47 am
by Son of Mathonwy
Sandydragon wrote:Don’t agree with her. It’s been going on for much longer.

The Cold War was won largely by the BBC and others influencing Eastern Europeans, and the careful use of information to shape opinions is nothing new.

Many of the arguments used by Putin were rehearsed by Hitler so not much new there either.

Arguably her reaction is one of shock having finally woken up to the true motives of Putin.
Yep, don't see much justification for 2014 being the start date.

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:35 am
by Stom
Son of Mathonwy wrote:
Sandydragon wrote:Don’t agree with her. It’s been going on for much longer.

The Cold War was won largely by the BBC and others influencing Eastern Europeans, and the careful use of information to shape opinions is nothing new.

Many of the arguments used by Putin were rehearsed by Hitler so not much new there either.

Arguably her reaction is one of shock having finally woken up to the true motives of Putin.
Yep, don't see much justification for 2014 being the start date.
I can, from a POV of simplicity. But I mentioned this elsewhere, that this just feels like a continuation on the path we have laid out for ourselves.

That we’ve been on a spiral toward the collapse of society and this is just another step toward that.

The question is whether the collapse will be positive or negative? Will the broken systems give way, see us grasp a new form of social capitalism and green energy, or will we double down, break apart into factions, and suffer for generations?

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:47 am
by Which Tyler
TBF, I don't think she's talking about misinformation in war - that's been going on since the Egyptians!

As for this happening during the cold war - I'm not sure how influential Facebook, Twitter, Tictok etc were back then - given that she's explicitly talking about the Russian use of social media to spread misinformation and propaganda to undermine & influence Western democracies.

My instinct is that 2013 would be a better start point (though she does explain why she chose February 2014); and that she probably shouldn't have called it "the first great information war"

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 11:07 am
by paddy no 11
Son of Mathonwy wrote:One positive from this (assuming Putin is bluffing about his biggest threats) is that it will give Germany and other European countries reliant on Russian fossil fuels a massive push to shift to renewable energy. This is good in itself and very bad for Russia's economy and influence in the medium and long term (assuming the regime continues).
Not sure I agree with this, it was the push for green away from Nuclear and fossil fuels that has played germany into the hands of the russians and the 100's of millions they collect every week from Germany/Europe that are funding the war. The short sightedness of green policy and possible nefarious actions of some german politicians arethe real issue (see gerhard schroeder)

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 11:08 am
by paddy no 11
The catholic and protestants discovering the printing press and issuing pamphlets with the pope/martin Luther in league with satan was an information war

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 12:23 pm
by Puja
paddy no 11 wrote:
Son of Mathonwy wrote:One positive from this (assuming Putin is bluffing about his biggest threats) is that it will give Germany and other European countries reliant on Russian fossil fuels a massive push to shift to renewable energy. This is good in itself and very bad for Russia's economy and influence in the medium and long term (assuming the regime continues).
Not sure I agree with this, it was the push for green away from Nuclear and fossil fuels that has played germany into the hands of the russians and the 100's of millions they collect every week from Germany/Europe that are funding the war. The short sightedness of green policy and possible nefarious actions of some german politicians arethe real issue (see gerhard schroeder)
The push for green is the reason why Germany buys so much oil and gas from Russia? You're going to need to run through that one for me.

Puja

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 1:07 pm
by paddy no 11
They abandoned coal for "cleaner" LNG

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:05 pm
by Sandydragon
paddy no 11 wrote:
Son of Mathonwy wrote:One positive from this (assuming Putin is bluffing about his biggest threats) is that it will give Germany and other European countries reliant on Russian fossil fuels a massive push to shift to renewable energy. This is good in itself and very bad for Russia's economy and influence in the medium and long term (assuming the regime continues).
Not sure I agree with this, it was the push for green away from Nuclear and fossil fuels that has played germany into the hands of the russians and the 100's of millions they collect every week from Germany/Europe that are funding the war. The short sightedness of green policy and possible nefarious actions of some german politicians arethe real issue (see gerhard schroeder)
Shortsightedness or corruption?

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:06 pm
by Sandydragon
Puja wrote:
paddy no 11 wrote:
Son of Mathonwy wrote:One positive from this (assuming Putin is bluffing about his biggest threats) is that it will give Germany and other European countries reliant on Russian fossil fuels a massive push to shift to renewable energy. This is good in itself and very bad for Russia's economy and influence in the medium and long term (assuming the regime continues).
Not sure I agree with this, it was the push for green away from Nuclear and fossil fuels that has played germany into the hands of the russians and the 100's of millions they collect every week from Germany/Europe that are funding the war. The short sightedness of green policy and possible nefarious actions of some german politicians arethe real issue (see gerhard schroeder)
The push for green is the reason why Germany buys so much oil and gas from Russia? You're going to need to run through that one for me.

Puja
AS Paddy has said, plus a bit anti-nuclear desire which kicked that into touch. Probably more of a desire to push natural exploitation exploitation somewhere else rather than eradicate altogether at the moment.

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:20 pm
by paddy no 11
Sandydragon wrote:
paddy no 11 wrote:
Son of Mathonwy wrote:One positive from this (assuming Putin is bluffing about his biggest threats) is that it will give Germany and other European countries reliant on Russian fossil fuels a massive push to shift to renewable energy. This is good in itself and very bad for Russia's economy and influence in the medium and long term (assuming the regime continues).
Not sure I agree with this, it was the push for green away from Nuclear and fossil fuels that has played germany into the hands of the russians and the 100's of millions they collect every week from Germany/Europe that are funding the war. The short sightedness of green policy and possible nefarious actions of some german politicians arethe real issue (see gerhard schroeder)
Shortsightedness or corruption?
Look at Schroeder's position in Gazprom now! If you take to the internet there's people telling you who in germany is actually a KGB agent, I don't know but it is where it is. They issued a statement on Sunday evening saying they will go back to coal if it comes to it next winter and the war is still raging

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:39 pm
by paddy no 11
Not looking good on the Air front for Ukraine. It's going to get much worse from here

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:46 pm
by Puja
paddy no 11 wrote:They abandoned coal for "cleaner" LNG
Ah, that makes sense, thanks for the explanation. Mind, they weren't wrong in terms of us still having a functional planet in 50 years time, but obviously the source needed to be considered.

Puja

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 6:07 pm
by Son of Mathonwy
paddy no 11 wrote:
Sandydragon wrote:
paddy no 11 wrote: Not sure I agree with this, it was the push for green away from Nuclear and fossil fuels that has played germany into the hands of the russians and the 100's of millions they collect every week from Germany/Europe that are funding the war. The short sightedness of green policy and possible nefarious actions of some german politicians arethe real issue (see gerhard schroeder)
Shortsightedness or corruption?
Look at Schroeder's position in Gazprom now! If you take to the internet there's people telling you who in germany is actually a KGB agent, I don't know but it is where it is. They issued a statement on Sunday evening saying they will go back to coal if it comes to it next winter and the war is still raging
It is possible that in the short-term, Germany might switch back to coal in a big way - which is why I said the impact would be medium-term and longer. It is of course possible that they'll just stick with coal, and then you'd be right. I guess I'm just naively hoping that the enormous political need to remove dependence on Russia would provide the impetus for a BIG green new deal.

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 7:39 pm
by Sandydragon
paddy no 11 wrote:
Sandydragon wrote:
paddy no 11 wrote:
Not sure I agree with this, it was the push for green away from Nuclear and fossil fuels that has played germany into the hands of the russians and the 100's of millions they collect every week from Germany/Europe that are funding the war. The short sightedness of green policy and possible nefarious actions of some german politicians arethe real issue (see gerhard schroeder)
Shortsightedness or corruption?
Look at Schroeder's position in Gazprom now! If you take to the internet there's people telling you who in germany is actually a KGB agent, I don't know but it is where it is. They issued a statement on Sunday evening saying they will go back to coal if it comes to it next winter and the war is still raging
I’m not sure I’d go that far but certainly it’s highly questionable how things turned out. That’s the sort of future career that public servants in this country get investigated for (albeit by a fairly toothless watchdog).

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2022 7:41 pm
by Sandydragon
paddy no 11 wrote:Not looking good on the Air front for Ukraine. It's going to get much worse from here
It’s becoming clear that all vestiges of restraint are disappearing from Russian activities. A bad situation is about to get worse.

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:16 pm
by Which Tyler
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/polit ... ns-314391/
Lviv mayor tells Boris: Put Ukraine refugees in oligarchs’ London mansions
"What we need now is for Boris Johnson to start freezing the bank accounts of Russian oligarchs in London and to seize their luxury villas."

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Posted: Wed Mar 02, 2022 3:04 pm
by Son of Mathonwy
Which Tyler wrote:https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/polit ... ns-314391/
Lviv mayor tells Boris: Put Ukraine refugees in oligarchs’ London mansions
"What we need now is for Boris Johnson to start freezing the bank accounts of Russian oligarchs in London and to seize their luxury villas."
Reckon they'll have sold half their properties before this government gets to grip with them.