Snap General Election called

[Digby]

The Whips must know then they'd have lost the vote to force an extension to article 50. One can only hope there's a pay back for going with a plan that's straight up Idi Amin or Joseph Stalin rather than British democracy

[Which Tyler]

Meanwhile...

This battle between government and MPs, over how and whether we Brexit, is now massively, bloodily raging. A number 10 source told me: “If MPs pass a no confidence vote next week, then we'll stay in No10, we won't recommend any alternative government, we'll dissolve Parliament and have an election between 1-5 November -- and that means no time for legislation”. Flippin’ ‘eck.

[Banquo]

Seems like an odd move from Bozza- think its an open goal for a vote of no-confidence and the govt falling. Surely he's done the maths?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49493632

I THINK his maths is that his opponents desided to go with legislation first, VONC second - he's nullified his opponents' preferred option.

Hopefully her maj will have him thrown in the tower when he turns up... (obviously, she has no choice, she has to smile and do what she's told - or abdicate)


Nothing says "take back control" "regain democracy" or "Parliamentary sovereignty" quite like closing parliament and refusing democratic process.

Boris, you can fuck right off with this, we're a democracy, not a dictatorship!

#StopBrexit #StopDictators #FuckBoris (with a rusty pitchfork)


Parliamentary petition to prevent
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

Do not prorogue Parliament
Parliament must not be prorogued or dissolved unless and until the Article 50 period has been sufficiently extended or the UK's intention to withdraw from the EU has been cancelled.

He'll lose a VONC after this though. Maybe that's the plan, but that was the maths I referred to.

[Banquo]

Seems like an odd move from Bozza- think its an open goal for a vote of no-confidence and the govt falling. Surely he's done the maths?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49493632

It does seem like an obvious manouevre to unite his opposition. He could've kept stringing everyone along for much longer while Corbyn "waited for the right time", the Lib Dems waited to be more relevant, and the Meatloaf Remain Tories (I would do anything to stop No Deal...) wait for the minerals to actually back something rather than complaining.

Puja

well yes. So he's either as thick as a parrot (surely calling a GE after parliament made him go for an extension was his best hope), or has some cunning stunt to pull.

[Digby]

Parliamentary petition to prevent
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

Do not prorogue Parliament
Parliament must not be prorogued or dissolved unless and until the Article 50 period has been sufficiently extended or the UK's intention to withdraw from the EU has been cancelled.

I don't altogether like the wording of that petition, but what the hell I've signed it. I'd much rather they didn't speak about withdrawing our intent to leave the EU without recourse to another referendum. And I'm not happy about a term as vague as a 'sufficient extension'

[Digby]

Meanwhile...

This battle between government and MPs, over how and whether we Brexit, is now massively, bloodily raging. A number 10 source told me: “If MPs pass a no confidence vote next week, then we'll stay in No10, we won't recommend any alternative government, we'll dissolve Parliament and have an election between 1-5 November -- and that means no time for legislation”. Flippin’ ‘eck.

Blimey. I've never been one to support riots, but if there was ever a time.

I'm starting though with a less than politely worded letter to my MP, who at least has kindly has sent me a pre-paid envelope. I think they were hoping the envelope would be used to register interest in the Tory party and even donate money, but it will go to a much better use

[Banquo]

Meanwhile...

This battle between government and MPs, over how and whether we Brexit, is now massively, bloodily raging. A number 10 source told me: “If MPs pass a no confidence vote next week, then we'll stay in No10, we won't recommend any alternative government, we'll dissolve Parliament and have an election between 1-5 November -- and that means no time for legislation”. Flippin’ ‘eck.

Blimey. I've never been one to support riots, but if there was ever a time.

I'm starting though with a less than politely worded letter to my MP, who at least has kindly has sent me a pre-paid envelope. I think they were hoping the envelope would be used to register interest in the Tory party and even donate money, but it will go to a much better use

Try and make it concise old boy, I know you are a creature of habit, but....

[Which Tyler]

I don't altogether like the wording of that petition, but what the hell I've signed it. I'd much rather they didn't speak about withdrawing our intent to leave the EU without recourse to another referendum. And I'm not happy about a term as vague as a 'sufficient extension'

Agreed, but it's what's available.

[Digby]

Meanwhile...

Blimey. I've never been one to support riots, but if there was ever a time.

I'm starting though with a less than politely worded letter to my MP, who at least has kindly has sent me a pre-paid envelope. I think they were hoping the envelope would be used to register interest in the Tory party and even donate money, but it will go to a much better use

Try and make it concise old boy, I know you are a creature of habit, but....

I was thinking more to make it untraceable, being concise could be just the ticket

[Mellsblue]

Second time lucky!!

I think prorogation is a dangerous and short sighted manoeuvre, and won’t try and defend it. However, for some balance read this thread:

[Which Tyler]

Second time lucky!!

I think prorogation is a dangerous and short sighted manoeuvre, and won’t try and defend it. However, for some balance read this thread:

I'm not sure the politicians themselves have been wrong-footed by something that's been speculated about for several weeks; or that reaching a decision the day after your opponents do, counts as being more decisive...
That's mostly me playing devil's advocate though.


Apparently, I can't delete my post elsewhere because you replied to it, presumably you can't delete yours because I replied. D'OH!

[Puja]

Second time lucky!!

I think prorogation is a dangerous and short sighted manoeuvre, and won’t try and defend it. However, for some balance read this thread:

I'm not sure the politicians themselves have been wrong-footed by something that's been speculated about for several weeks; or that reaching a decision the day after your opponents do, counts as being more decisive...
That's mostly me playing devil's advocate though.


Apparently, I can't delete my post elsewhere because you replied to it, presumably you can't delete yours because I replied. D'OH!

That one, I can fix. Brb.

Puja

[Stom]

No10 would likely call an election if there's a No Confidence motion, though.

So I see no way to avoid it...

When this is done, every MP should be sacked.

[Digby]

Second time lucky!!

I think prorogation is a dangerous and short sighted manoeuvre, and won’t try and defend it. However, for some balance read this thread:

I'm not sure the politicians themselves have been wrong-footed by something that's been speculated about for several weeks; or that reaching a decision the day after your opponents do, counts as being more decisive...
That's mostly me playing devil's advocate though.


Apparently, I can't delete my post elsewhere because you replied to it, presumably you can't delete yours because I replied. D'OH!

if you can't take pride in a coup you're just missing out on the fun

[Digby]

No10 would likely call an election if there's a No Confidence motion, though.

So I see no way to avoid it...

When this is done, every MP should be sacked.

But an election for after Brexit day, so what use is that anyway?

[Stom]

No10 would likely call an election if there's a No Confidence motion, though.

So I see no way to avoid it...

When this is done, every MP should be sacked.

But an election for after Brexit day, so what use is that anyway?

err..It will dissolve parliament meaning there can be no debates until after No Deal Brexit.

[Digby]

No10 would likely call an election if there's a No Confidence motion, though.

So I see no way to avoid it...

When this is done, every MP should be sacked.

But an election for after Brexit day, so what use is that anyway?

err..It will dissolve parliament meaning there can be no debates until after No Deal Brexit.

Sadly it would not, thus for instance the Preston update which WT linked above.

The only way to force through a no confidence vote is if there's an alternative government that can step forwards, else Boris very likely stays in No.10 and whilst he needs to call an election can probably call one in November. Even if Boris turns out to be wrong in his assessment we're going to lose time in the courts, and that could have the same effect as Boris is seeking anyway

So for a vote of confidence to really work we need Corbyn to do a decent and honest thing, and in 70 odd years he's yet to falter and do so

[Banquo]

No10 would likely call an election if there's a No Confidence motion, though.

So I see no way to avoid it...

When this is done, every MP should be sacked.

This.

It is quite amusing that the Remain camp have used every procedural trick in the book to get their way, yet scream when the tables are turned. I'm not defending it though, this is high stakes and dangerous poker.

[Stom]

But an election for after Brexit day, so what use is that anyway?

err..It will dissolve parliament meaning there can be no debates until after No Deal Brexit.

Sadly it would not, thus for instance the Preston update which WT linked above.

The only way to force through a no confidence vote is if there's an alternative government that can step forwards, else Boris very likely stays in No.10 and whilst he needs to call an election can probably call one in November. Even if Boris turns out to be wrong in his assessment we're going to lose time in the courts, and that could have the same effect as Boris is seeking anyway

So for a vote of confidence to really work we need Corbyn to do a decent and honest thing, and in 70 odd years he's yet to falter and do so

Ah, ok, you misunderstood me.

So, yeah, sloppy BJ would call an election for after Brexit so as to prevent any alternative government forming.

[Which Tyler]

Boris actively wants a GE doesn't he?
He wants one after halloween, so that Brexit is done and dusted (and there's no point voting for the BnP or UKIP) but as soon after, before the shit has fully hit the fan.
Fixed term parliament act means he can't just call one himself, and besides, he'd rather blame other people; so VONC is his best bet of getting it. He runs the risk that a GNU is put together, taking the timetables out of his hands; but that seems... very delicate, and even more so whilst everyone's throwing their hands up crying bloody murder, rather than sitting around and negotiating. This prodding for a VONC, and proroguing of parliament also pulls the teeth for any tactic beyond VONC.

So what would he prefer? A lost VONC (which he could very easily orchestrate is one is tabled) to force a GE, with himself in charge of the timetable; or to pull that trigger himself, trying to put together a 2/3 majoirty in parliament, with himself in charge of the timetable. I think, today, he has come down on the side of VONC - hence he's doing his best to provoke it.

[Banquo]

Boris actively wants a GE doesn't he?
He wants one after halloween, so that Brexit is done and dusted (and there's no point voting for the BnP or UKIP) but as soon after, before the shit has fully hit the fan.
Fixed term parliament act means he can't just call one himself, and besides, he'd rather blame other people; so VONC is his best bet of getting it. He runs the risk that a GNU is put together, taking the timetables out of his hands; but that seems... very delicate, and even more so whilst everyone's throwing their hands up crying bloody murder, rather than sitting around and negotiating. This prodding for a VONC, and proroguing of parliament also pulls the teeth for any tactic beyond VONC.

So what would he prefer? A lost VONC (which he could very easily orchestrate is one is tabled) to force a GE, with himself in charge of the timetable; or to pull that trigger himself, trying to put together a 2/3 majoirty in parliament, with himself in charge of the timetable. I think, today, he has come down on the side of VONC - hence he's doing his best to provoke it.

Putting aside the morality of it , its a high stakes tactic. He must a- figure there is no deal that he can get through parliament (and he's right), b- the Brexit Party voters will flock to him in the event of a VONC triggered GE.

When is the earliest a GE can a- be triggered, and then b= take place?

[Digby]

Boris actively wants a GE doesn't he?
He wants one after halloween, so that Brexit is done and dusted (and there's no point voting for the BnP or UKIP) but as soon after, before the shit has fully hit the fan.
Fixed term parliament act means he can't just call one himself, and besides, he'd rather blame other people; so VONC is his best bet of getting it. He runs the risk that a GNU is put together, taking the timetables out of his hands; but that seems... very delicate, and even more so whilst everyone's throwing their hands up crying bloody murder, rather than sitting around and negotiating. This prodding for a VONC, and proroguing of parliament also pulls the teeth for any tactic beyond VONC.

So what would he prefer? A lost VONC (which he could very easily orchestrate is one is tabled) to force a GE, with himself in charge of the timetable; or to pull that trigger himself, trying to put together a 2/3 majoirty in parliament, with himself in charge of the timetable. I think, today, he has come down on the side of VONC - hence he's doing his best to provoke it.

Putting aside the morality of it , its a high stakes tactic. He must a- figure there is no deal that he can get through parliament (and he's right), b- the Brexit Party voters will flock to him in the event of a VONC triggered GE.

When is the earliest a GE can a- be triggered, and then b= take place?

I have in mind 17 days, that though is right at the bottom end of the lowest limit as per the electoral commission. There were calls to force a PM to give at least 30 days notice, but I don't remember anything actually happening about that, so I assume 17 days is still the earliest

[Banquo]

Boris actively wants a GE doesn't he?
He wants one after halloween, so that Brexit is done and dusted (and there's no point voting for the BnP or UKIP) but as soon after, before the shit has fully hit the fan.
Fixed term parliament act means he can't just call one himself, and besides, he'd rather blame other people; so VONC is his best bet of getting it. He runs the risk that a GNU is put together, taking the timetables out of his hands; but that seems... very delicate, and even more so whilst everyone's throwing their hands up crying bloody murder, rather than sitting around and negotiating. This prodding for a VONC, and proroguing of parliament also pulls the teeth for any tactic beyond VONC.

So what would he prefer? A lost VONC (which he could very easily orchestrate is one is tabled) to force a GE, with himself in charge of the timetable; or to pull that trigger himself, trying to put together a 2/3 majoirty in parliament, with himself in charge of the timetable. I think, today, he has come down on the side of VONC - hence he's doing his best to provoke it.

Putting aside the morality of it , its a high stakes tactic. He must a- figure there is no deal that he can get through parliament (and he's right), b- the Brexit Party voters will flock to him in the event of a VONC triggered GE.

When is the earliest a GE can a- be triggered, and then b= take place?

I have in mind 17 days, that though is right at the bottom end of the lowest limit as per the electoral commission. There were calls to force a PM to give at least 30 days notice, but I don't remember anything actually happening about that, so I assume 17 days is still the earliest

But when could the countdown start?

[Digby]

Putting aside the morality of it , its a high stakes tactic. He must a- figure there is no deal that he can get through parliament (and he's right), b- the Brexit Party voters will flock to him in the event of a VONC triggered GE.

When is the earliest a GE can a- be triggered, and then b= take place?

I have in mind 17 days, that though is right at the bottom end of the lowest limit as per the electoral commission. There were calls to force a PM to give at least 30 days notice, but I don't remember anything actually happening about that, so I assume 17 days is still the earliest

But when could the countdown start?

Now, though I think I might be wrong about the 17 days.

Under the FTPA when parliament naturally expires there'd be a 25 day countdown, and I think that 25 might apply even on a snap call now as I've just read you have to submit candidate names 19 (working) days before the poll, and that would be tricky if you only had 17 days as there'll be some admin lag to that 19 days, and that probably gets us to the figure of 25 days once the lag is added to the 19 days.

I don't think Boris would have an issue calling an election right now, the only thing which could stop him is Corbyn refusing to support that move, and seeing as he's spent day after day calling for an election surely enough Labour votes would be there to more than cover any Tory turkeys not voting for Christmas

[Which Tyler]

Now, though I think I might be wrong about the 17 days.

Under the FTPA when parliament naturally expires there'd be a 25 day countdown, and I think that 25 might apply even on a snap call now as I've just read you have to submit candidate names 19 (working) days before the poll, and that would be tricky if you only had 17 days as there'll be some admin lag to that 19 days, and that probably gets us to the figure of 25 days once the lag is added to the 19 days.

I don't think Boris would have an issue calling an election right now, the only thing which could stop him is Corbyn refusing to support that move, and seeing as he's spent day after day calling for an election surely enough Labour votes would be there to more than cover any Tory turkeys not voting for Christmas

He wants to be able to blame someone else for the election, rather than calling it himself. If he was happy to do that, he wouldn't need to goad like this.
As for timescales, the more pertinent debate is what's the longest gap between announcement and election date. He wants an election ASAP after 31/10 - which means 07/11, can he really eke it out to 2 months?

By my reckoning, his ideal would probably be (I think I've got my dates right here):
03/09 Parliament regathers.
10/09 Queenie's speech and break for prorogation and party conferences.
09/10 Return from conferences; Call election; commons dismissed for 32 days of campaigning.
07/11 Election Day.


If nothing happens between 3rd and 10th of October, then it's too late. If a VONC happens in there; he'd have to try to take 2 months for 3 weeks worth of campaigning. Of course, the Banon playbook would say to do it anyway, and let the courts sort it - which takes time... when every week counts.