America

[Sandydragon]

Some relatively good news this morning, everyone's favourite Weekend At Bernies cosplayer Joe Biden appears to have got the message that people are concerned about him being a dotard and came out swinging for his State of the Union address, turning it what sounds like a lively and fairly effective campaign event. Emphasising codifying Roe v Wade, harping on making IVF a right, responding to heckling about the border with retorts that there was a border bill that Republicans worked on and then shut down at the behest of Trump. He's finally played a lot of the right notes (to win the election, not necessarily morally) - whether anyone was still paying attention may be another matter.

Trump's response was comedy, calling him “angry, polarizing, and hate-filled," which is very much the pot getting annoyed that the kettle is finally interacting with its schtick.

Puja

I listened to some of that and was genuinely surprised by the passion and cohesion. He has a lot of work to do I think but the only way is to take the fight to Trump and get Trump sounding ludicrous. 25% of the American electorate (apparently) is solidly pro-Trunp but there must be enough Republican doubters out there Biden can convince whilst shoring up Democrat support. Its definitely worth reminding the public how bad Trump was, and how mentally incompetent he is now.

[Mikey Brown]

Yep, despite bumbling every fifth or sixth word I was quite impressed with how much he sounded like he gave a shit and actually meant what he was saying. It’s still an absolute cripple fight, obviously, but that should be a big boost.

I didn’t see all of it, but I surprised myself by watching a good hour or so. I’ve never actually followed it before. It’s as much of a circus act as what we do over here, but there was a lot that actually sounded like it might be relatable for the common man. With the help of the Swifties all might not be lost.

[Puja]

He has a lot of work to do I think but the only way is to take the fight to Trump and get Trump sounding ludicrous. 25% of the American electorate (apparently) is solidly pro-Trunp but there must be enough Republican doubters out there Biden can convince whilst shoring up Democrat support. Its definitely worth reminding the public how bad Trump was, and how mentally incompetent he is now.

I think the problem occurs that the rump of those Republican and independent doubters are favouring Trump over Biden because they think Biden's senile and incapable of handling the pressures of the presidency for the next 4 years. Trump is also clearly senile, but he's not the one with the public perception problem - it's like Labour trying to fight accusations of anti-semitism in 2019 by pointing out the raging Islamophobia, racism, and anti-semitism in Conservatives ranks; it might be completely true, and much worse over there, but that's not where the spotlight is right now. Plus Trump is angry and passionate, and that covers a lot of sins - they believe he's got vitality in him, which appeals to the American exceptionalism. Yankees don't want the symbol of their country to be an old man who might fall asleep in the corner, they'd literally prefer a raving lunatic.

As such, the only way to win them over is for Biden to demonstrate he's not senile - to be out and be seen, to speak, to debate and seem lively and with it, without gaffes. He's got to be active and visible and demonstrably vital... which might be a problem if he actually is verging on senile, which I suspect is the case. Very hard to disprove something that's true.

They might just be saving it all up for the campaign though. It's going to be a hard work for an 81 year old, so it's possible he's still got it in him and is planning a 3 month burst of energy to shock and awe the electorate before the actual vote.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

He has a lot of work to do I think but the only way is to take the fight to Trump and get Trump sounding ludicrous. 25% of the American electorate (apparently) is solidly pro-Trunp but there must be enough Republican doubters out there Biden can convince whilst shoring up Democrat support. Its definitely worth reminding the public how bad Trump was, and how mentally incompetent he is now.

I think the problem occurs that the rump of those Republican and independent doubters are favouring Trump over Biden because they think Biden's senile and incapable of handling the pressures of the presidency for the next 4 years. Trump is also clearly senile, but he's not the one with the public perception problem - it's like Labour trying to fight accusations of anti-semitism in 2019 by pointing out the raging Islamophobia, racism, and anti-semitism in Conservatives ranks; it might be completely true, and much worse over there, but that's not where the spotlight is right now. Plus Trump is angry and passionate, and that covers a lot of sins - they believe he's got vitality in him, which appeals to the American exceptionalism. Yankees don't want the symbol of their country to be an old man who might fall asleep in the corner, they'd literally prefer a raving lunatic.

As such, the only way to win them over is for Biden to demonstrate he's not senile - to be out and be seen, to speak, to debate and seem lively and with it, without gaffes. He's got to be active and visible and demonstrably vital... which might be a problem if he actually is verging on senile, which I suspect is the case. Very hard to disprove something that's true.

They might just be saving it all up for the campaign though. It's going to be a hard work for an 81 year old, so it's possible he's still got it in him and is planning a 3 month burst of energy to shock and awe the electorate before the actual vote.

Puja

At the time, given the views of key Labour Jewish MPs, that would be very debatable. The Conservative issue is now gaining momentum based on recent gaffs/ idiotic comments and SUnak's inability to stamp on it proactively. Similar parallel to Corbyn actually although I suspect Sunak is personally less close to the issue.

Anyway, Biden is gong to struggle to change to narrative. 4 years of gaffs is hard to overcome even if he has a spotless 3 months. Trump I totally agree is also well past it (probably the least of his faults but still a major one). I don't think Biden can overcome that totally, there's been too many incidents over the past 4 years and he cant campaign from his cellar this time.

I dont like being this pessimistic, but I am very doubtful about this year's election. Unless wider support for Trump evaporates (he's always going to have his core 20%) then its going to be too close for comfort. Democrats also need to full rally behind Biden to a degree that we haven't seen yet.

[Stom]

I was in Miami recently, so I feel qualified now to talk about America. My new and profound take on the place is that there is definitely something appealing about the red states. They are somehow more orientated towards the people. But I am basing this opinion solely on my experience of JFK airport vs MIA airport. The former was chaos, and the latter was efficient. 1-0 to the red states so far in terms of my personal experience.

The above is obviously nonsensical reasoning, but at the same time it is a slightly truthful representation of how my opinion has shifted.

I had the opposite. Leaving NYC was super easy. Getting in through Miami airport...hell on earth.

But, yeah, Texans in particular are super nice people. Loved it there. But there's a huge difference between enjoying Austin as a cis white male and going to Vidor as a gay black woman...

The truth is...most of these people are not horrible, disgusting people. They're just scared.

Inequity stokes that. The solution to racism is less inequity. Less inequality. And that's for everyone.

[Which Tyler]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... rcna143746

"Now if I don't get elected, it's going to be a bloodbath for the whole — that's gonna be the least of it," he added. "It's going to be a bloodbath for the country. That will be the least of it."
...
Later, he added, "If this election isn't won, I'm not sure that you'll ever have another election in this country."
...
He again referred to the people who are in prison for crimes committed in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack as "hostages."
...
Trump also said that some undocumented immigrants were "not people,"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic_terrorism

[morepork]

He spends almost the entirety of his time whining about his entitlement and how hard life is for him because of other people, yet will not take responsibility for anything personally. What worthless fucking gumby.

[Sandydragon]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... rcna143746

"Now if I don't get elected, it's going to be a bloodbath for the whole — that's gonna be the least of it," he added. "It's going to be a bloodbath for the country. That will be the least of it."
...
Later, he added, "If this election isn't won, I'm not sure that you'll ever have another election in this country."
...
He again referred to the people who are in prison for crimes committed in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack as "hostages."
...
Trump also said that some undocumented immigrants were "not people,"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic_terrorism

So the narrative that if he loses its a 'stolen election' is getting well founded then? The ideal of an american democracy is under massive strain from this Orange muppet; his continued teflon status in every court is almost breathtaking to behold. Its almost like hes too toxic to be properly prosecuted.

[Coco]

You have to wonder what will happen if Trump wins and (presumably) bans abortion nationally. Will that kill the Republican vote next time? Or given that it's Trump, will there be a next time?

He won't do that, it is up to each state to decide for themselves.

It's up to each state at the moment but he could change that.

Ridiculous. He cant change that and has no interest in doing it. He has said this specifically. That is reserved to the states respectively, or to the people.

[Coco]

Please watch the "Bloodbath" conversation in its entirety IF you are truly interested in the context and meaning of that particular statement... he was speaking about the automobile industry. Buzzwords and clips that leave context to the imagination undercut the truth - on both sides of the aisle... and both sides do it. Its another way to keep sowing division and its terrible.

[Mikey Brown]

Still team Donny then I take it?

[J Dory]

Trump doesn't give a fuck about abortion or anything else that doesn't directly inflate his sense of self importance. He will say or do anything he feels in is his interest at a particular moment. Anyone that thinks he is following any kind of moral compass is delusional.

[Son of Mathonwy]

He won't do that, it is up to each state to decide for themselves.

It's up to each state at the moment but he could change that.

Ridiculous. He cant change that and has no interest in doing it. He has said this specifically. That is reserved to the states respectively, or to the people.

It's not ridiculous because he could do it (if he had the numbers in congress). It is currently for each state to decide but that could be changed (unless you're aware of some kind of constitutional protection for abortion?). I'm not sure what you mean when you say it's reserved to the people.

[morepork]

If it is" reserved to the people", why are some States placing restrictions on the choice of the individual? This is an illogical assumption. The fact that free choice is not codified into federal law leaves the individual at the whim of the State. Look to Jim Crow laws for an example of shit State level meddling in fundamental civil rights. The Donald is a muppet but he is also a puppet for people that are looking to exert restrictive overreach at the state level with the aim of imposing this at the Federal level. A little antithetical to the mantra of Small Government, no?

[Sandydragon]

Trump doesn't give a fuck about abortion or anything else that doesn't directly inflate his sense of self importance. He will say or do anything he feels in is his interest at a particular moment. Anyone that thinks he is following any kind of moral compass is delusional.

He’ll say or do anything to keep his base onside and minimise his chances of prison.

[paddy no 11]

Ye won't get any replies other than, ya but de dems are just as bad it's the same on both sides blah blah blah Ted Kennedy

[morepork]

Ye won't get any replies other than, ya but de dems are just as bad it's the same on both sides blah blah blah Ted Kennedy

It's just an energy-sapping clusterfuck of baseless anecdote.

[Puja]

In other news, it's been referred back to the states where, despite mass public support for abortion access, the Arizona Supreme Court has decided that a law from 1865, that punishes all abortions with 5 years in jail for all involved, is the pre-eminent bit of legislation. This is instead of all the much more recent bits of law that are apparently not as law-y as the bit written before Arizona even joined the union, which just happens to coincide with those judges' prejudices.

Democracy!

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

In other news, it's been referred back to the states where, despite mass public support for abortion access, the Arizona Supreme Court has decided that a law from 1865, that punishes all abortions with 5 years in jail for all involved, is the pre-eminent bit of legislation. This is instead of all the much more recent bits of law that are apparently not as law-y as the bit written before Arizona even joined the union, which just happens to coincide with those judges' prejudices.

Democracy!

Puja

The mystery is that the US and Iran are enemies. Theocracies unite!

[Coco]

Still team Donny then I take it?

I am... still a long way to November though and a lot can (and will) happen by then.

[Puja]

Still team Donny then I take it?

I am... still a long way to November though and a lot can (and will) happen by then.

Curious - what potential change of circumstances could shake your faith?

Puja

[Which Tyler]

Curious - what potential change of circumstances could shake your faith?

Well, we know for sure it's not an admission of competence, compassion, sexual assault, fraud (financial or electoral) or treason, so...

IIRC from Coco, it's "my tax bill" that matters most

[Coco]

It's up to each state at the moment but he could change that.

Ridiculous. He cant change that and has no interest in doing it. He has said this specifically. That is reserved to the states respectively, or to the people.

It's not ridiculous because he could do it (if he had the numbers in congress). It is currently for each state to decide but that could be changed (unless you're aware of some kind of constitutional protection for abortion?). I'm not sure what you mean when you say it's reserved to the people.

It is a state issue... the people within each state can vote on whatever is brought to the table for a vote regarding abortion itself, late term abortions, or whatever it may be. Some states will not bring any of those issues to vote... some will, and the states that do, will be voting on varying wording and timelines (12 weeks... 24 weeks, etc) - it really depends on how important it is to the voters in each state to get it on the ballot.

California, in 2022, we voted on Prop 1, which explicitly adds abortion and contraception rights to the state constitution.

[Coco]

Still team Donny then I take it?

I am... still a long way to November though and a lot can (and will) happen by then.

Curious - what potential change of circumstances could shake your faith?

Puja

Its really not faith, its more about what my choices are. I personally really liked Tulsi and hoped she might throw her hat in the ring to shake things up but she didnt. I eyed RFK Jr... even Vivek... but my choices as of today are Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Ive now experienced life under both of them and feel out of the two, Trump's policies were better for the majority of people, and definitely for me and my family(work especially). Not everyone agrees, but most do even begrudgingly, or secretly. If anything changes between now and November, and Im sure it will, I will update my opinion accordingly. Its still a bit early for everything to unfold however it will.

[morepork]

What policies? The temporary minor tax cut to the middle and working class? Paul Ryan pushed that through and promptly fucked off. What other enacted policy initiatives were actually followed through?

In fact, don’t worry. Your choice. I don’t have the stomach for it.