RugbyRebels

Which Tyler wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50221856

Labour to back early general election

So it just remains to be seen what ammendments get added - presumably the date change is 50:50 (and feels a little pathetic, even if I do understand the reasoning) - and presumably 2nd ref and lowered voting age won't get close.


Nothing says "healing the country" like forcing politics discussions into the traditional Christmas Family Feuds.
Joy to the world!

So what happens if a badly divided country returns another divided parliament? People seem to forget that the current parliament was elected after the referendum.

Boris is obviously hoping that he can pick up a huge majority, but Farage will stick the knife in unless he is included in an electoral pact. Which I wouldn’t rule out.

Meanwhile the remain parties will hurt Labour. Could be some interesting arithmetic in the next parliament.

Sandydragon wrote:

Which Tyler wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50221856

Labour to back early general election

So it just remains to be seen what ammendments get added - presumably the date change is 50:50 (and feels a little pathetic, even if I do understand the reasoning) - and presumably 2nd ref and lowered voting age won't get close.


Nothing says "healing the country" like forcing politics discussions into the traditional Christmas Family Feuds.
Joy to the world!

So what happens if a badly divided country returns another divided parliament? People seem to forget that the current parliament was elected after the referendum.

Boris is obviously hoping that he can pick up a huge majority, but Farage will stick the knife in unless he is included in an electoral pact. Which I wouldn’t rule out.

Meanwhile the remain parties will hurt Labour. Could be some interesting arithmetic in the next parliament.

It all depends on the students, I think.

If they manage to vote and make it count, we could end up with Labour needing to give ground to the LibDems to form a government. And that ground could be 2nd ref.

I think that's the best possible result. Enough floating Tories who are remainers vote Lib Dem to create a Lab/Lib pact and enable a 2nd ref.

After which, we can sort out the next phase, as we'd need another extension.

Which Tyler wrote:
Nothing says "healing the country" like forcing politics discussions into the traditional Christmas Family Feuds.
Joy to the world!

Luckily for me I already dislike most of my family, and if this all spills over they may start to feel the same way in return

So the FTPA that requires a 2/3rds majority for a GE can be overridden by an amendment passed by simple majority at any time. Great legislative drafting, there.

Also, I know it didn’t pass, but surely the logic behind allowing 16 & 17 year-olds to vote also supports disenfranchising the over 90s?

Lizard wrote:So the FTPA that requires a 2/3rds majority for a GE can be overridden by an amendment passed by simple majority at any time. Great legislative drafting, there.

Also, I know it didn’t pass, but surely the logic behind allowing 16 & 17 year-olds to vote also supports disenfranchising the over 90s?

In fairness one parliament should never be able to bind a future parliament, so it was always going to happen

Lizard wrote:So the FTPA that requires a 2/3rds majority for a GE can be overridden by an amendment passed by simple majority at any time. Great legislative drafting, there.

Also, I know it didn’t pass, but surely the logic behind allowing 16 & 17 year-olds to vote also supports disenfranchising the over 90s?

The difference is that the FTPA gives control to the PM over the election, whereas the simple bill is decided by Parliament and can be amended and mucked about with as with any other bill.

Puja

Self interested, narcissistic psychopaths vote for Christmas.
More to follow....

kk67 wrote:Self interested, narcissistic psychopaths vote for Christmas.
More to follow....

Not a bad take on Labour's switch in policy to support Boris

Puja wrote:

Lizard wrote:So the FTPA that requires a 2/3rds majority for a GE can be overridden by an amendment passed by simple majority at any time. Great legislative drafting, there.

Also, I know it didn’t pass, but surely the logic behind allowing 16 & 17 year-olds to vote also supports disenfranchising the over 90s?

The difference is that the FTPA gives control to the PM over the election, whereas the simple bill is decided by Parliament and can be amended and mucked about with as with any other bill.

Puja

I’m fully expecting the FTPA to be repealed by whoever next has a majority government.

Stom wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Which Tyler wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50221856


So it just remains to be seen what ammendments get added - presumably the date change is 50:50 (and feels a little pathetic, even if I do understand the reasoning) - and presumably 2nd ref and lowered voting age won't get close.


Nothing says "healing the country" like forcing politics discussions into the traditional Christmas Family Feuds.
Joy to the world!

So what happens if a badly divided country returns another divided parliament? People seem to forget that the current parliament was elected after the referendum.

Boris is obviously hoping that he can pick up a huge majority, but Farage will stick the knife in unless he is included in an electoral pact. Which I wouldn’t rule out.

Meanwhile the remain parties will hurt Labour. Could be some interesting arithmetic in the next parliament.

It all depends on the students, I think.

If they manage to vote and make it count, we could end up with Labour needing to give ground to the LibDems to form a government. And that ground could be 2nd ref.

I think that's the best possible result. Enough floating Tories who are remainers vote Lib Dem to create a Lab/Lib pact and enable a 2nd ref.

After which, we can sort out the next phase, as we'd need another extension.

I think it'll depend on how the Labour 'leave' constituencies vote, plus Labour vote in Scotland and Wales. SNP and Lib Dems will likely clear up in Scotland. If Farage fields no candidates, as is being mooted, the dynamic becomes different again. Very hard to call- I think the Tories will likely shoot themselves even more in the foot by running Project Fear 2- Keep Corbyn Out.

Banquo wrote:

Stom wrote:

Sandydragon wrote: So what happens if a badly divided country returns another divided parliament? People seem to forget that the current parliament was elected after the referendum.

Boris is obviously hoping that he can pick up a huge majority, but Farage will stick the knife in unless he is included in an electoral pact. Which I wouldn’t rule out.

Meanwhile the remain parties will hurt Labour. Could be some interesting arithmetic in the next parliament.

It all depends on the students, I think.

If they manage to vote and make it count, we could end up with Labour needing to give ground to the LibDems to form a government. And that ground could be 2nd ref.

I think that's the best possible result. Enough floating Tories who are remainers vote Lib Dem to create a Lab/Lib pact and enable a 2nd ref.

After which, we can sort out the next phase, as we'd need another extension.

I think it'll depend on how the Labour 'leave' constituencies vote, plus Labour vote in Scotland and Wales. SNP and Lib Dems will likely clear up in Scotland. If Farage fields no candidates, as is being mooted, the dynamic becomes different again. Very hard to call- I think the Tories will likely shoot themselves even more in the foot by running Project Fear 2- Keep Corbyn Out.

My dad will vote Tory no matter, even if it means no deal. And even though the reason he always voted Tory was because he couldn’t vote for Vince!

But it’ll be interesting with Vince gone, whether the Libs win comfortably again. I’ll be in the Uk at the time, so they won’t be able to disenfranchise me!

It is really going to be down to Farage. If he fields against the Conservatives, as he is promising to do unless Boris abandons his deal and commits to a No Deal Brexit, then it will turn a lot of seats into toss-ups. I don't know how many he'll win, but he'll spoil a good few of them.

Puja

Stom wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Stom wrote:
It all depends on the students, I think.

If they manage to vote and make it count, we could end up with Labour needing to give ground to the LibDems to form a government. And that ground could be 2nd ref.

I think that's the best possible result. Enough floating Tories who are remainers vote Lib Dem to create a Lab/Lib pact and enable a 2nd ref.

After which, we can sort out the next phase, as we'd need another extension.

I think it'll depend on how the Labour 'leave' constituencies vote, plus Labour vote in Scotland and Wales. SNP and Lib Dems will likely clear up in Scotland. If Farage fields no candidates, as is being mooted, the dynamic becomes different again. Very hard to call- I think the Tories will likely shoot themselves even more in the foot by running Project Fear 2- Keep Corbyn Out.

My dad will vote Tory no matter, even if it means no deal. And even though the reason he always voted Tory was because he couldn’t vote for Vince!

But it’ll be interesting with Vince gone, whether the Libs win comfortably again. I’ll be in the Uk at the time, so they won’t be able to disenfranchise me!

Oh yes, there is a core vote for both Labour and Tory who won't switch; I think both are a lot less in number than yesteryear tho.

I'm assuming in advance that Labour will lose some seats to the Tories, and the Tories will lose some seats to the SNP and Lib Dems. And it might come down to how many seats in the South-West can the Lib Dems hold with their ultra remain position, they could lose them all to the Tories.

I suppose anywhere it says Tory there one might allow that Brexit Nationalist Party means the same thing

Tories will lose seats in Scotland, but will pick up seats in England. Highly unlikely they will finish on their current polling level. Their lead will diminish but by how much?
LibDems will win around 30 seats
Plaid may win one or two.
SNP bound to win seats.
I cannot see where Labour wins seats but I can they could lose seats all over the place.
Think tactical voting may come into play to keep the Tories out.
Expect some very odd local results with big swings in certain seats.
Turnout (of the low variety) could be decisive in a number of seats.
Brexit party is the big unknown. If they stand, it could alter the dynamic dramatically.

fivepointer wrote:Tories will lose seats in Scotland, but will pick up seats in England. Highly unlikely they will finish on their current polling level. Their lead will diminish but by how much?
LibDems will win around 30 seats
Plaid may win one or two.
SNP bound to win seats.
I cannot see where Labour wins seats but I can they could lose seats all over the place.
Think tactical voting may come into play to keep the Tories out.
Expect some very odd local results with big swings in certain seats.
Turnout (of the low variety) could be decisive in a number of seats.
Brexit party is the big unknown. If they stand, it could alter the dynamic dramatically.

Swinson is, I think, not getting this right unfortunately...

Everyone knows Lib Dems will be kingmakers, so shouting "We will not work with BJ or Corbyn" is a little insane. You want the voters who aren't so happy with their leader but are still strong Tory/Labour people to turn their support to the LDs.

In my constituency, that's not a big problem, but for some of them, it's not good.

Recently, here in Hungary, there was a local election where the opposition parties finally got it. They didn't all stand candidates shouting about each other like last time. They all grouped together making it a binary choice: government or not government. And then they won the majority of votes.

This split is insane.

Hmmm - election on Thursday the 12th

Which means we'll find out the results on Friday 13th...

What could possibly go wrong?

Apparently the Brexit party is launching a tactical voting app. Why do I feel that once again, the remain parties just aren’t as organised. If there were ever an election for tactical voting, this is it.

Of course for Labour not to contest seats would be unacceptable to the party and Corbyn is quite happy for us to crash out of the EU, even better if he can blame the Tories for it.

There are various remain tactical voting sites hpthat have been up for a while, and analysing. Many of them up and running ahead of the European Elections, and haven't gone away since.

Which Tyler wrote:There are various remain tactical voting sites hpthat have been up for a while, and analysing. Many of them up and running ahead of the European Elections, and haven't gone away since.

I will note that it's worthwhile being wary of some of the tactical voting sites. I've seen a couple where they recommend the Lib Dems a lot, often on scant evidence, and one where they recommend you should vote Labour in my constituency where the choice is basically between Lib Dem and Conservatives.

Puja

Also Labour has a pro Brexit leader

I really think the LDs could screw this up for everyone...

Bah.

I called the electoral office yesterday, they didn't know if my registering for an in-person vote would get processed in time. Lol.

Banquo wrote:

Stom wrote:

Sandydragon wrote: So what happens if a badly divided country returns another divided parliament? People seem to forget that the current parliament was elected after the referendum.

Boris is obviously hoping that he can pick up a huge majority, but Farage will stick the knife in unless he is included in an electoral pact. Which I wouldn’t rule out.

Meanwhile the remain parties will hurt Labour. Could be some interesting arithmetic in the next parliament.

It all depends on the students, I think.

If they manage to vote and make it count, we could end up with Labour needing to give ground to the LibDems to form a government. And that ground could be 2nd ref.

I think that's the best possible result. Enough floating Tories who are remainers vote Lib Dem to create a Lab/Lib pact and enable a 2nd ref.

After which, we can sort out the next phase, as we'd need another extension.

I think it'll depend on how the Labour 'leave' constituencies vote, plus Labour vote in Scotland and Wales. SNP and Lib Dems will likely clear up in Scotland. If Farage fields no candidates, as is being mooted, the dynamic becomes different again. Very hard to call- I think the Tories will likely shoot themselves even more in the foot by running Project Fear 2- Keep Corbyn Out.

Is there really such a thing as labour leave constituencies? There are constituencies that voted leave and still returned a labour mp, but there is no proof that a majority of those who voted labour in 2017 also voted leave in 2016. I would imagine a good proportion of those who voted leave will have voted Tory or UKIP in 2017 and failed to get their candidate to Parliament.

Stom wrote:I really think the LDs could screw this up for everyone...

Bah.

I called the electoral office yesterday, they didn't know if my registering for an in-person vote would get processed in time. Lol.

I’d place the blame more on Labour. If they had been a firm remain party then the LDs would be less relevant. It’s their prevarication over the past few years that has allowed the liberals space.

Plus many people who don’t want Brexit just can’t vote for Corbyn.

canta_brian wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Stom wrote:
It all depends on the students, I think.

If they manage to vote and make it count, we could end up with Labour needing to give ground to the LibDems to form a government. And that ground could be 2nd ref.

I think that's the best possible result. Enough floating Tories who are remainers vote Lib Dem to create a Lab/Lib pact and enable a 2nd ref.

After which, we can sort out the next phase, as we'd need another extension.

I think it'll depend on how the Labour 'leave' constituencies vote, plus Labour vote in Scotland and Wales. SNP and Lib Dems will likely clear up in Scotland. If Farage fields no candidates, as is being mooted, the dynamic becomes different again. Very hard to call- I think the Tories will likely shoot themselves even more in the foot by running Project Fear 2- Keep Corbyn Out.

Is there really such a thing as labour leave constituencies? There are constituencies that voted leave and still returned a labour mp, but there is no proof that a majority of those who voted labour in 2017 also voted leave in 2016. I would imagine a good proportion of those who voted leave will have voted Tory or UKIP in 2017 and failed to get their candidate to Parliament.

hence using ' ' to describe them.