Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2019 8:52 am
Anyone see Newsnight last night. Extraordinary from Owen Smith.
What'd he do?Banquo wrote:Anyone see Newsnight last night. Extraordinary from Owen Smith.
So it just remains to be seen what ammendments get added - presumably the date change is 50:50 (and feels a little pathetic, even if I do understand the reasoning) - and presumably 2nd ref and lowered voting age won't get close.Labour to back early general election
Said Corbyn was right not to agree to an election because Labour would get stuffed, plus saying he’d do anything he could to delay and stop and reverse Brexit, plus saying Corbyn was useless in the run up to the referendum and should now be backing remain. None is new news, but amazing to hear it outed in public in one sentence from a member of the PLP.Puja wrote:What'd he do?Banquo wrote:Anyone see Newsnight last night. Extraordinary from Owen Smith.
Puja
So what happens if a badly divided country returns another divided parliament? People seem to forget that the current parliament was elected after the referendum.Which Tyler wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50221856So it just remains to be seen what ammendments get added - presumably the date change is 50:50 (and feels a little pathetic, even if I do understand the reasoning) - and presumably 2nd ref and lowered voting age won't get close.Labour to back early general election
Nothing says "healing the country" like forcing politics discussions into the traditional Christmas Family Feuds.
Joy to the world!
It all depends on the students, I think.Sandydragon wrote:So what happens if a badly divided country returns another divided parliament? People seem to forget that the current parliament was elected after the referendum.Which Tyler wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50221856So it just remains to be seen what ammendments get added - presumably the date change is 50:50 (and feels a little pathetic, even if I do understand the reasoning) - and presumably 2nd ref and lowered voting age won't get close.Labour to back early general election
Nothing says "healing the country" like forcing politics discussions into the traditional Christmas Family Feuds.
Joy to the world!
Boris is obviously hoping that he can pick up a huge majority, but Farage will stick the knife in unless he is included in an electoral pact. Which I wouldn’t rule out.
Meanwhile the remain parties will hurt Labour. Could be some interesting arithmetic in the next parliament.
Luckily for me I already dislike most of my family, and if this all spills over they may start to feel the same way in returnWhich Tyler wrote:
Nothing says "healing the country" like forcing politics discussions into the traditional Christmas Family Feuds.
Joy to the world!
In fairness one parliament should never be able to bind a future parliament, so it was always going to happenLizard wrote:So the FTPA that requires a 2/3rds majority for a GE can be overridden by an amendment passed by simple majority at any time. Great legislative drafting, there.
Also, I know it didn’t pass, but surely the logic behind allowing 16 & 17 year-olds to vote also supports disenfranchising the over 90s?
The difference is that the FTPA gives control to the PM over the election, whereas the simple bill is decided by Parliament and can be amended and mucked about with as with any other bill.Lizard wrote:So the FTPA that requires a 2/3rds majority for a GE can be overridden by an amendment passed by simple majority at any time. Great legislative drafting, there.
Also, I know it didn’t pass, but surely the logic behind allowing 16 & 17 year-olds to vote also supports disenfranchising the over 90s?
Not a bad take on Labour's switch in policy to support Boriskk67 wrote:Self interested, narcissistic psychopaths vote for Christmas.
More to follow....
I’m fully expecting the FTPA to be repealed by whoever next has a majority government.Puja wrote:The difference is that the FTPA gives control to the PM over the election, whereas the simple bill is decided by Parliament and can be amended and mucked about with as with any other bill.Lizard wrote:So the FTPA that requires a 2/3rds majority for a GE can be overridden by an amendment passed by simple majority at any time. Great legislative drafting, there.
Also, I know it didn’t pass, but surely the logic behind allowing 16 & 17 year-olds to vote also supports disenfranchising the over 90s?
Puja
I think it'll depend on how the Labour 'leave' constituencies vote, plus Labour vote in Scotland and Wales. SNP and Lib Dems will likely clear up in Scotland. If Farage fields no candidates, as is being mooted, the dynamic becomes different again. Very hard to call- I think the Tories will likely shoot themselves even more in the foot by running Project Fear 2- Keep Corbyn Out.Stom wrote:It all depends on the students, I think.Sandydragon wrote:So what happens if a badly divided country returns another divided parliament? People seem to forget that the current parliament was elected after the referendum.Which Tyler wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50221856
So it just remains to be seen what ammendments get added - presumably the date change is 50:50 (and feels a little pathetic, even if I do understand the reasoning) - and presumably 2nd ref and lowered voting age won't get close.
Nothing says "healing the country" like forcing politics discussions into the traditional Christmas Family Feuds.
Joy to the world!
Boris is obviously hoping that he can pick up a huge majority, but Farage will stick the knife in unless he is included in an electoral pact. Which I wouldn’t rule out.
Meanwhile the remain parties will hurt Labour. Could be some interesting arithmetic in the next parliament.
If they manage to vote and make it count, we could end up with Labour needing to give ground to the LibDems to form a government. And that ground could be 2nd ref.
I think that's the best possible result. Enough floating Tories who are remainers vote Lib Dem to create a Lab/Lib pact and enable a 2nd ref.
After which, we can sort out the next phase, as we'd need another extension.
My dad will vote Tory no matter, even if it means no deal. And even though the reason he always voted Tory was because he couldn’t vote for Vince!Banquo wrote:I think it'll depend on how the Labour 'leave' constituencies vote, plus Labour vote in Scotland and Wales. SNP and Lib Dems will likely clear up in Scotland. If Farage fields no candidates, as is being mooted, the dynamic becomes different again. Very hard to call- I think the Tories will likely shoot themselves even more in the foot by running Project Fear 2- Keep Corbyn Out.Stom wrote:It all depends on the students, I think.Sandydragon wrote: So what happens if a badly divided country returns another divided parliament? People seem to forget that the current parliament was elected after the referendum.
Boris is obviously hoping that he can pick up a huge majority, but Farage will stick the knife in unless he is included in an electoral pact. Which I wouldn’t rule out.
Meanwhile the remain parties will hurt Labour. Could be some interesting arithmetic in the next parliament.
If they manage to vote and make it count, we could end up with Labour needing to give ground to the LibDems to form a government. And that ground could be 2nd ref.
I think that's the best possible result. Enough floating Tories who are remainers vote Lib Dem to create a Lab/Lib pact and enable a 2nd ref.
After which, we can sort out the next phase, as we'd need another extension.
Oh yes, there is a core vote for both Labour and Tory who won't switch; I think both are a lot less in number than yesteryear tho.Stom wrote:My dad will vote Tory no matter, even if it means no deal. And even though the reason he always voted Tory was because he couldn’t vote for Vince!Banquo wrote:I think it'll depend on how the Labour 'leave' constituencies vote, plus Labour vote in Scotland and Wales. SNP and Lib Dems will likely clear up in Scotland. If Farage fields no candidates, as is being mooted, the dynamic becomes different again. Very hard to call- I think the Tories will likely shoot themselves even more in the foot by running Project Fear 2- Keep Corbyn Out.Stom wrote:
It all depends on the students, I think.
If they manage to vote and make it count, we could end up with Labour needing to give ground to the LibDems to form a government. And that ground could be 2nd ref.
I think that's the best possible result. Enough floating Tories who are remainers vote Lib Dem to create a Lab/Lib pact and enable a 2nd ref.
After which, we can sort out the next phase, as we'd need another extension.
But it’ll be interesting with Vince gone, whether the Libs win comfortably again. I’ll be in the Uk at the time, so they won’t be able to disenfranchise me!
Swinson is, I think, not getting this right unfortunately...fivepointer wrote:Tories will lose seats in Scotland, but will pick up seats in England. Highly unlikely they will finish on their current polling level. Their lead will diminish but by how much?
LibDems will win around 30 seats
Plaid may win one or two.
SNP bound to win seats.
I cannot see where Labour wins seats but I can they could lose seats all over the place.
Think tactical voting may come into play to keep the Tories out.
Expect some very odd local results with big swings in certain seats.
Turnout (of the low variety) could be decisive in a number of seats.
Brexit party is the big unknown. If they stand, it could alter the dynamic dramatically.
I will note that it's worthwhile being wary of some of the tactical voting sites. I've seen a couple where they recommend the Lib Dems a lot, often on scant evidence, and one where they recommend you should vote Labour in my constituency where the choice is basically between Lib Dem and Conservatives.Which Tyler wrote:There are various remain tactical voting sites hpthat have been up for a while, and analysing. Many of them up and running ahead of the European Elections, and haven't gone away since.