RugbyRebels

I really think the LDs could screw this up for everyone...

Bah.

I called the electoral office yesterday, they didn't know if my registering for an in-person vote would get processed in time. Lol.

Banquo wrote:

Stom wrote:

Sandydragon wrote: So what happens if a badly divided country returns another divided parliament? People seem to forget that the current parliament was elected after the referendum.

Boris is obviously hoping that he can pick up a huge majority, but Farage will stick the knife in unless he is included in an electoral pact. Which I wouldn’t rule out.

Meanwhile the remain parties will hurt Labour. Could be some interesting arithmetic in the next parliament.

It all depends on the students, I think.

If they manage to vote and make it count, we could end up with Labour needing to give ground to the LibDems to form a government. And that ground could be 2nd ref.

I think that's the best possible result. Enough floating Tories who are remainers vote Lib Dem to create a Lab/Lib pact and enable a 2nd ref.

After which, we can sort out the next phase, as we'd need another extension.

I think it'll depend on how the Labour 'leave' constituencies vote, plus Labour vote in Scotland and Wales. SNP and Lib Dems will likely clear up in Scotland. If Farage fields no candidates, as is being mooted, the dynamic becomes different again. Very hard to call- I think the Tories will likely shoot themselves even more in the foot by running Project Fear 2- Keep Corbyn Out.

Is there really such a thing as labour leave constituencies? There are constituencies that voted leave and still returned a labour mp, but there is no proof that a majority of those who voted labour in 2017 also voted leave in 2016. I would imagine a good proportion of those who voted leave will have voted Tory or UKIP in 2017 and failed to get their candidate to Parliament.

Stom wrote:I really think the LDs could screw this up for everyone...

Bah.

I called the electoral office yesterday, they didn't know if my registering for an in-person vote would get processed in time. Lol.

I’d place the blame more on Labour. If they had been a firm remain party then the LDs would be less relevant. It’s their prevarication over the past few years that has allowed the liberals space.

Plus many people who don’t want Brexit just can’t vote for Corbyn.

canta_brian wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Stom wrote:
It all depends on the students, I think.

If they manage to vote and make it count, we could end up with Labour needing to give ground to the LibDems to form a government. And that ground could be 2nd ref.

I think that's the best possible result. Enough floating Tories who are remainers vote Lib Dem to create a Lab/Lib pact and enable a 2nd ref.

After which, we can sort out the next phase, as we'd need another extension.

I think it'll depend on how the Labour 'leave' constituencies vote, plus Labour vote in Scotland and Wales. SNP and Lib Dems will likely clear up in Scotland. If Farage fields no candidates, as is being mooted, the dynamic becomes different again. Very hard to call- I think the Tories will likely shoot themselves even more in the foot by running Project Fear 2- Keep Corbyn Out.

Is there really such a thing as labour leave constituencies? There are constituencies that voted leave and still returned a labour mp, but there is no proof that a majority of those who voted labour in 2017 also voted leave in 2016. I would imagine a good proportion of those who voted leave will have voted Tory or UKIP in 2017 and failed to get their candidate to Parliament.

hence using ' ' to describe them.

Are leave voters in form labour constituencies up north more likely to vote Tory or for the Brexit party?

Will Labour and Tory remainers back the Liberal Democrat’s?

This election is a close one to call, and a hung parliament is again likely.

Sandydragon wrote:Are leave voters in form labour constituencies up north more likely to vote Tory or for the Brexit party?

Will Labour and Tory remainers back the Liberal Democrat’s?

This election is a close one to call, and a hung parliament is again likely.

if Farage decides not to contest those kind of seats, as said twice before, its a game changer.

Sandydragon wrote:

Stom wrote:I really think the LDs could screw this up for everyone...

Bah.

I called the electoral office yesterday, they didn't know if my registering for an in-person vote would get processed in time. Lol.

I’d place the blame more on Labour. If they had been a firm remain party then the LDs would be less relevant. It’s their prevarication over the past few years that has allowed the liberals space.

Plus many people who don’t want Brexit just can’t vote for Corbyn.

Because Labour is caught between 2 things.

It is, no matter what Blair tried (and managed mainly) to do, a workers party. So it should be for the blue collar worker.

But it is also the only socialist leaning party on the roll who have half a chance. So it's also the party for the students, for the educated liberal thinkers.

So it has tried to sit on that fence and has done it badly.

Meanwhile, the Lib Dems do not get any kind of support because they have had a succession of pretty appalling leaders since Nick Clegg tried too hard to be a "statesman" instead of "standing up for what he believed in".

The UK desperately needs new parties to arrive who cater to different people.

As it is, blue collar workers are voting for a party who want to screw them over because of bloody populism and an appalling press.

Just like here.

Just like in the US.

Just like in Poland, Brazil, the Phillippines, Russia, Romania, Italy, etc.

Puja wrote:I will note that it's worthwhile being wary of some of the tactical voting sites. I've seen a couple where they recommend the Lib Dems a lot, often on scant evidence, and one where they recommend you should vote Labour in my constituency where the choice is basically between Lib Dem and Conservatives.

Yes, that's fair. Suspect some might be fakes set up by the Russian bot factories.
I think GetVoting.org is the main one (set up by Best For Britain)

Either way, don't trust any that don't show their working (Get Voting doesn't show their working, interestingly - they did for the European Elections)

Which Tyler wrote:

Puja wrote:I will note that it's worthwhile being wary of some of the tactical voting sites. I've seen a couple where they recommend the Lib Dems a lot, often on scant evidence, and one where they recommend you should vote Labour in my constituency where the choice is basically between Lib Dem and Conservatives.

Yes, that's fair. Suspect some might be fakes set up by the Russian bot factories.
I think GetVoting.org is the main one (set up by Best For Britain)

Either way, don't trust any that don't show their working (Get Voting doesn't show their working, interestingly - they did for the European Elections)

Get Voting is the major one that I've heard of! Recommends voting for Chukka Ummuna in Westminster despite Lib Dems being nowhere in 2017. Mind, there's a decent argument that previous form is irrelevant given the recent upheaval and that polls should be considered more relevant. Then again, this is a belting example of the troubles with that (read the small print under the graph!):



Tactical.vote looks pretty good and shows its working (apostrophe is important in this sentence).

Puja

Hmmm...
Just found someone who thinks the 2nd most likely outcome is a Tory, Lib Dem and DUP alliance...

I really, really don't see how any Tory and Lib Dem Alliance possibly gets put together, however loosely allied

Digby wrote:

kk67 wrote:Self interested, narcissistic psychopaths vote for Christmas.
More to follow....

Not a bad take on Labour's switch in policy to support Boris

You make a nice political point but I reckon we should be moving beyond the point scoring.
The brexiteers are overwhelmingly seeking deregulation of a pernicious and nefarious genre.

When it goes tits-up, the retribution will make the current animosity look like AndyPandy.

Tactical voting made easy (if you want to stop No Deal, or Boris's hard Brexit):
1) Look up the 2017 results for your constituency,
2) vote for the the most popular non-Tory party.

For me that's Labour (another wasted vote for a candidate with a strong majority...but what else can I do?).

Such a shame Labour aren't willing to make some kind of agreement with the LibDems - it could make a huge difference.

For the same reason, hope Farage doesn't help Boris.
This is an interesting one, because the Boris and Nigel could help each other a lot. But
1) Boris does not want to encourage Farage in any way and will much, much prefer to do this without help, and
2) although Farage might seem to want Brexit to happen, the best thing for his long term career is for the Conservatives to be wrecked as Boris to fail to bring it about.

Some good pointers here.

"This election is the most unpredictable in living memory. Part of the difficulty is that different parts of Britain now vote in very different ways for very different reasons. 'Uniform national swing', once psephological gospel, is dead in a ditch"

https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-anal ... olatile-el

Son of Mathonwy wrote:Tactical voting made easy (if you want to stop No Deal, or Boris's hard Brexit):
1) Look up the 2017 results for your constituency,
2) vote for the the most popular non-Tory party.

For me that's Labour (another wasted vote for a candidate with a strong majority...but what else can I do?).

It's be Labour for me too, though they've a huge gap to close the gap to the Tories, Labour got around 30% of the vote I think and the Tories just over 60%. Also I don't know I can stomach the idea of voting for Corbyn even if something I want happens as a result, there's a way to be a person, and voting for Corbyn doesn't feel like one of those

I think Corbyn is a fucking twat, but I do at least feel that he will begrudgingly carry out what he feels is demanded of him by voters. That’s the most positive thing I can muster about basically any politician at the moment.

Digby wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:Tactical voting made easy (if you want to stop No Deal, or Boris's hard Brexit):
1) Look up the 2017 results for your constituency,
2) vote for the the most popular non-Tory party.

For me that's Labour (another wasted vote for a candidate with a strong majority...but what else can I do?).

It's be Labour for me too, though they've a huge gap to close the gap to the Tories, Labour got around 30% of the vote I think and the Tories just over 60%. Also I don't know I can stomach the idea of voting for Corbyn even if something I want happens as a result, there's a way to be a person, and voting for Corbyn doesn't feel like one of those

My parent's neighbourhood (and therefore mine) is Dr. Vince's. So now he's retiring, the new LD candidate needs to step up. It's largely remain voting but there is a hardcore of Tory numbskulls and a hardcore of set in their way Labour voters, too. The Tories outnumber the latter considerably, there's only a few thousand died red voters and they're dying out.

Full of traditional Tory voters now, as all the bankers move there because of the train and suburbia. But bankers won't necessarily vote Tory now because of Brexit...

Stom wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Stom wrote:I really think the LDs could screw this up for everyone...

Bah.

I called the electoral office yesterday, they didn't know if my registering for an in-person vote would get processed in time. Lol.

I’d place the blame more on Labour. If they had been a firm remain party then the LDs would be less relevant. It’s their prevarication over the past few years that has allowed the liberals space.

Plus many people who don’t want Brexit just can’t vote for Corbyn.

Because Labour is caught between 2 things.

It is, no matter what Blair tried (and managed mainly) to do, a workers party. So it should be for the blue collar worker.

But it is also the only socialist leaning party on the roll who have half a chance. So it's also the party for the students, for the educated liberal thinkers.

So it has tried to sit on that fence and has done it badly.

Meanwhile, the Lib Dems do not get any kind of support because they have had a succession of pretty appalling leaders since Nick Clegg tried too hard to be a "statesman" instead of "standing up for what he believed in".

The UK desperately needs new parties to arrive who cater to different people.

As it is, blue collar workers are voting for a party who want to screw them over because of bloody populism and an appalling press.

Just like here.

Just like in the US.

Just like in Poland, Brazil, the Phillippines, Russia, Romania, Italy, etc.

Yes, I look at the shadow front bench and think educated liberal thinker.

Putting aside the anti-semitism, which I say very grudgingly as it’s a real problem that still isn’t addressed, and there is no way Corbyn has displayed enough leadership to be prime minister.

Utterly incompetent. He has tried to be all things to all
People and has shown himself up as unable to lead when the current situation demands strong opposition.

And that’s before we get onto contentious policy areas that many remainers just can’t vote for.

Mikey Brown wrote:I think Corbyn is a fucking twat, but I do at least feel that he will begrudgingly carry out what he feels is demanded of him by voters. That’s the most positive thing I can muster about basically any politician at the moment.

Do you? Corbyn wants a hard Brexit but equally wants to blame the Tories for it. Corbyn is hoping that the young remain socialists will ignore that inconvenient truth and vote for him blindly.

Sandydragon wrote:

Mikey Brown wrote:I think Corbyn is a fucking twat, but I do at least feel that he will begrudgingly carry out what he feels is demanded of him by voters. That’s the most positive thing I can muster about basically any politician at the moment.

Do you? Corbyn wants a hard Brexit but equally wants to blame the Tories for it. Corbyn is hoping that the young remain socialists will ignore that inconvenient truth and vote for him blindly.

I don’t doubt that he, personally, wants Brexit. But say he gets in, do you see him still trying to avoid a revoke/remain result in a second referendum?

I wonder if farage is actually going to be much of a player in this election. It maybe my terminal optimism but I'm getting the feeling he's a busted hand.

Mikey Brown wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Mikey Brown wrote:I think Corbyn is a fucking twat, but I do at least feel that he will begrudgingly carry out what he feels is demanded of him by voters. That’s the most positive thing I can muster about basically any politician at the moment.

Do you? Corbyn wants a hard Brexit but equally wants to blame the Tories for it. Corbyn is hoping that the young remain socialists will ignore that inconvenient truth and vote for him blindly.

I don’t doubt that he, personally, wants Brexit. But say he gets in, do you see him still trying to avoid a revoke/remain result in a second referendum?

I think that depends on what his advisors want. Corbyn is a bit of a puppet. But he will twist and turn until he has no other option or someone else forces him into it.

I suspect he will try to negotiate a deal, fail to get one agreed/ratified. After that who knows, I think he will prevaricate but the best hope is that someone judges him aside.

kk67 wrote:I wonder if farage is actually going to be much of a player in this election. It maybe my terminal optimism but I'm getting the feeling he's a busted hand.

On this evidence, your optimism is sadly misplaced - he looks to be playing a blinder so far. He's just nullified the argument that he's splitting the Brexit vote by offering Johnson a pact that sounds plausible and reasonable to the average spod, but which he knows is impossible to sign up to, and has presented himself both as the spear carrier of Brexit (claiming Boris's deal is Not Brexit) and as the one trying to be reasonable.

I hate the fucker, but you can't deny he's a very skillful politician and demagogue. I think him doing well is essential to a liberal alliance victory - they might take votes coded as Labour, but they were likely to be ones already lost to Labour and keeping them away from the Conservatives could be worth 20 seats.

Plus, while I do really hate the fucker, a Brexit party presence in Parliament (and a large vote share that doesn't properly represent that) would bring electoral reform back to the forefront. That's something Britain needs far more than anything else.

Puja

Actually, the chances of Corbyn getting a majority is very slim. I think his best case scenario, unless the Brexit Party completely skewers the Torys beyond what might be expected, is that they are the largest party relying on the SNP and/ or the liberals. The latter will demand a referendum, not sure what price the SNP will extract, other than another Indyref.

Puja wrote:

kk67 wrote:I wonder if farage is actually going to be much of a player in this election. It maybe my terminal optimism but I'm getting the feeling he's a busted hand.

On this evidence, your optimism is sadly misplaced - he looks to be playing a blinder so far. He's just nullified the argument that he's splitting the Brexit vote by offering Johnson a pact that sounds plausible and reasonable to the average spod, but which he knows is impossible to sign up to, and has presented himself both as the spear carrier of Brexit (claiming Boris's deal is Not Brexit) and as the one trying to be reasonable.

I hate the fucker, but you can't deny he's a very skillful politician and demagogue. I think him doing well is essential to a liberal alliance victory - they might take votes coded as Labour, but they were likely to be ones already lost to Labour and keeping them away from the Conservatives could be worth 20 seats.

Plus, while I do really hate the fucker, a Brexit party presence in Parliament (and a large vote share that doesn't properly represent that) would bring electoral reform back to the forefront. That's something Britain needs far more than anything else.

Puja

That’s a scenario that isn’t getting much attention, what if the Torys remain the largest party but don’t have a majority. If the Brexit party get a fe MPs then their price is clear, would the DUP help Boris vote through a herd Brexit given that his internal opposition is likely to be smothered.