Snap General Election called

[Puja]

I wonder if farage is actually going to be much of a player in this election. It maybe my terminal optimism but I'm getting the feeling he's a busted hand.

On this evidence, your optimism is sadly misplaced - he looks to be playing a blinder so far. He's just nullified the argument that he's splitting the Brexit vote by offering Johnson a pact that sounds plausible and reasonable to the average spod, but which he knows is impossible to sign up to, and has presented himself both as the spear carrier of Brexit (claiming Boris's deal is Not Brexit) and as the one trying to be reasonable.

I hate the fucker, but you can't deny he's a very skillful politician and demagogue. I think him doing well is essential to a liberal alliance victory - they might take votes coded as Labour, but they were likely to be ones already lost to Labour and keeping them away from the Conservatives could be worth 20 seats.

Plus, while I do really hate the fucker, a Brexit party presence in Parliament (and a large vote share that doesn't properly represent that) would bring electoral reform back to the forefront. That's something Britain needs far more than anything else.

Puja

That’s a scenario that isn’t getting much attention, what if the Torys remain the largest party but don’t have a majority. If the Brexit party get a fe MPs then their price is clear, would the DUP help Boris vote through a herd Brexit given that his internal opposition is likely to be smothered.

That's something I find baffling about this election - everybody saying adamantly that, "We will not do coalitions or deals; we will just run a minority government if we need to, but we're expecting a majority."

It's going to be a hung Parliament or a Conservative majority. Those are the two options available and anyone who claims to believe differently is delusional or outright lying. So why are they busy ruling everything out?

And will Labour and the Lib Dems really stick to their guns about no alliances if Boris can form a minority with 45% and they could make 55% if they banded together with the SNP?

Puja

[kk67]

UKIP and the Brexit party are very much akin to the way the LibDems perform.
At local elections and European elections they do well but in general elections the popular vote desert them.

There's no way to really guess what the thickies, the poorly edumacated elderly, the stay at home parents and the unemployable will vote. They're sheep that have been weaponized but exactly what they'll do, and even if they'll be arsed to vote, is a bit of a mystery.

[Sandydragon]

On this evidence, your optimism is sadly misplaced - he looks to be playing a blinder so far. He's just nullified the argument that he's splitting the Brexit vote by offering Johnson a pact that sounds plausible and reasonable to the average spod, but which he knows is impossible to sign up to, and has presented himself both as the spear carrier of Brexit (claiming Boris's deal is Not Brexit) and as the one trying to be reasonable.

I hate the fucker, but you can't deny he's a very skillful politician and demagogue. I think him doing well is essential to a liberal alliance victory - they might take votes coded as Labour, but they were likely to be ones already lost to Labour and keeping them away from the Conservatives could be worth 20 seats.

Plus, while I do really hate the fucker, a Brexit party presence in Parliament (and a large vote share that doesn't properly represent that) would bring electoral reform back to the forefront. That's something Britain needs far more than anything else.

Puja

That’s a scenario that isn’t getting much attention, what if the Torys remain the largest party but don’t have a majority. If the Brexit party get a fe MPs then their price is clear, would the DUP help Boris vote through a herd Brexit given that his internal opposition is likely to be smothered.

That's something I find baffling about this election - everybody saying adamantly that, "We will not do coalitions or deals; we will just run a minority government if we need to, but we're expecting a majority."

It's going to be a hung Parliament or a Conservative majority. Those are the two options available and anyone who claims to believe differently is delusional or outright lying. So why are they busy ruling everything out?

And will Labour and the Lib Dems really stick to their guns about no alliances if Boris can form a minority with 45% and they could make 55% if they banded together with the SNP?

Puja

If Boris doesn’t win a majority, expect some frantic phone calls between Corbyn and the SNP and Liberals. I could guarantee a VONC inside a fortnight once Corbyn was happy that he had wider support.

[Digby]

I'm not surprised they're so against coalitions when the voting public were so very clear what they think about coalitions only very recently.

[Puja]

That’s a scenario that isn’t getting much attention, what if the Torys remain the largest party but don’t have a majority. If the Brexit party get a fe MPs then their price is clear, would the DUP help Boris vote through a herd Brexit given that his internal opposition is likely to be smothered.

That's something I find baffling about this election - everybody saying adamantly that, "We will not do coalitions or deals; we will just run a minority government if we need to, but we're expecting a majority."

It's going to be a hung Parliament or a Conservative majority. Those are the two options available and anyone who claims to believe differently is delusional or outright lying. So why are they busy ruling everything out?

And will Labour and the Lib Dems really stick to their guns about no alliances if Boris can form a minority with 45% and they could make 55% if they banded together with the SNP?

Puja

If Boris doesn’t win a majority, expect some frantic phone calls between Corbyn and the SNP and Liberals. I could guarantee a VONC inside a fortnight once Corbyn was happy that he had wider support.

Haven't they had an effective majority for over a month, in the face of No Deal Brexit, and failed to called a VONC on the basis that none of them would talk to each other?

I'm not surprised they're so against coalitions when the voting public were so very clear what they think about coalitions only very recently.

It's incredible how firmly they've learned exactly the wrong lesson. The Lib Dems were punished for campaigning as a) the student party and b) vote tactically for us if you hate the Conservatives before proceeding to enable a Conservative government and screw the students. I don't know that the voting public is against coalitions in and of themselves.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

I think the lack of VONC has had more to do with tying Boris up in knots over his promises. They have made him ask for an extension.

I also think that if the other parties had been prepared to accept Corbyn as interim PM then a VONC would have happened.

[Puja]

I think the lack of VONC has had more to do with tying Boris up in knots over his promises. They have made him ask for an extension.

I also think that if the other parties had been prepared to accept Corbyn as interim PM then a VONC would have happened.

That's kind of where I was going with that. Even with the threat of parliament being prorogued and an imminent no deal, they couldn't agree to work together.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

I don’t think that the Liberals will be any keener to put Corbyn into Number 10, but if that is how the election pans out and it’s that or nothing, then I’m guessing they will hold their nose. Ultimately someone has to cooperate in that situation otherwise we end up in deadlock.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Corbyn's main plan (or hope) is that he can replicate the swing he got in 2017 by making this about wresting power from the rich, helping ordinary people (ie the vast majority), even making a difference for the environment, while not putting off voters (unless they have a strong Brexit preference) with the neutral-ish, second referendum thing.

Any moderate improvement in the current parliamentary numbers (enough to allow a Labour-led coalition) would be a victory.

[Son of Mathonwy]

I don’t think that the Liberals will be any keener to put Corbyn into Number 10, but if that is how the election pans out and it’s that or nothing, then I’m guessing they will hold their nose. Ultimately someone has to cooperate in that situation otherwise we end up in deadlock.

If it gets them a second referendum, they'll do it.

[Sandydragon]

So apparently there has been a surge in Labour support (evidenced by some surveys anyway) and a falling away in support for the Liberals as the competition gets tribal again. I’m hoping the Liberals do better than last time, but I do get the logic that Labour has the best chance of beating the Tories.

Support for the Brexit party has fallen to about 7%. Nationally not a major threat but locally they could cost the Tories some seats in strong leave areas.

Other survey polls paint a very different picture with the Conservatives still enjoying a lead in double figures, which perhaps shoes that polls continue to be unreliable and the public mood is far from clear.

[Stom]

So apparently there has been a surge in Labour support (evidenced by some surveys anyway) and a falling away in support for the Liberals as the competition gets tribal again. I’m hoping the Liberals do better than last time, but I do get the logic that Labour has the best chance of beating the Tories.

Support for the Brexit party has fallen to about 7%. Nationally not a major threat but locally they could cost the Tories some seats in strong leave areas.

Other survey polls paint a very different picture with the Conservatives still enjoying a lead in double figures, which perhaps shoes that polls continue to be unreliable and the public mood is far from clear.

Well duh. The Libs have painted themselves as the remain vote... who won’t work with Labour it the SNP to prevent the Tories from taking power.

[Digby]

Well duh. The Libs have painted themselves as the remain vote... who won’t work with Labour it the SNP to prevent the Tories from taking power.

They've left themselves more wriggle room than that. Not a formal coalition, and probably Labour would need a new leader, much like they asked for back when Gordon Brown wanted to stay on

[Puja]

So apparently there has been a surge in Labour support (evidenced by some surveys anyway) and a falling away in support for the Liberals as the competition gets tribal again. I’m hoping the Liberals do better than last time, but I do get the logic that Labour has the best chance of beating the Tories.

Support for the Brexit party has fallen to about 7%. Nationally not a major threat but locally they could cost the Tories some seats in strong leave areas.

Other survey polls paint a very different picture with the Conservatives still enjoying a lead in double figures, which perhaps shoes that polls continue to be unreliable and the public mood is far from clear.

An election always suits Corbyn better. Having no allies and lots of enemies in the press and no skill at forcing himself into the public eye on an everyday basis, his poll ratings always go down mid-Parliament under a barrage of "Corbyn is the devil" messages. However, an election gives him a lot more publicity on his own terms and he is a much better campaigner than he is a self-publicist (or leader of the opposition, for that matter), so his policies get a lot more airtime*. He'll always get a bounce in the polls as he gets going.

Puja

*As opposed to the policies that his opponents would ascribe to him (and which he's too incompetent to properly refute), which tend to be the wilful destruction of the British economy and people, the systematic theft of everyone's property, and not wearing a tie.

[Banquo]

So apparently there has been a surge in Labour support (evidenced by some surveys anyway) and a falling away in support for the Liberals as the competition gets tribal again. I’m hoping the Liberals do better than last time, but I do get the logic that Labour has the best chance of beating the Tories.

Support for the Brexit party has fallen to about 7%. Nationally not a major threat but locally they could cost the Tories some seats in strong leave areas.

Other survey polls paint a very different picture with the Conservatives still enjoying a lead in double figures, which perhaps shoes that polls continue to be unreliable and the public mood is far from clear.

An election always suits Corbyn better. Having no allies and lots of enemies in the press and no skill at forcing himself into the public eye on an everyday basis, his poll ratings always go down mid-Parliament under a barrage of "Corbyn is the devil" messages. However, an election gives him a lot more publicity on his own terms and he is a much better campaigner than he is a self-publicist (or leader of the opposition, for that matter), so his policies get a lot more airtime*. He'll always get a bounce in the polls as he gets going.

Puja

*As opposed to the policies that his opponents would ascribe to him (and which he's too incompetent to properly refute), which tend to be the wilful destruction of the British economy and people, the systematic theft of everyone's property, and not wearing a tie.

A straw poll- my kids at 27 and 29 and quite worldly- also says that whilst they don't they don't rate Corbyn, they love Labours policies on homelessness. housing, environment, and their messages are cutting through and resonating. They don't really care about the cost, they care about the 'hope'- and they don't believe a word that comes out of Tory mouths. I think Labour will get a very strong result- as they should tbh, daft Brexit position notwithstanding.

[Sandydragon]

If Labour had even vaguely sensible leadership they would romp home. Corbyn is an anchor on their chances.

[Puja]

If Labour had even vaguely sensible leadership they would romp home. Corbyn is an anchor on their chances.

Agreed, although I think that's as much because he's been unfairly painted black as from him not being good himself (although he clearly does have problems). Whether he deserves the rep that he has or not, you're right that it's turned him into a millstone.

Puja

[Digby]

I feel I should report whilst raking the leaves earlier and tipping them into the garden waste bin I spotted a £5 mixed in amongst the leaves, I suppose it's possible it had simply fallen out of an old pain of jeans I was wearing, but it is possible I've got a money tree growing somewhere, and both Labour and the Conservatives might wish to avail themselves of it with the lunatic spending promises.

[Banquo]

I feel I should report whilst raking the leaves earlier and tipping them into the garden waste bin I spotted a £5 mixed in amongst the leaves, I suppose it's possible it had simply fallen out of an old pain of jeans I was wearing, but it is possible I've got a money tree growing somewhere, and both Labour and the Conservatives might wish to avail themselves of it with the lunatic spending promises.

Copses v forests of magic money trees. But many folks under the age of 40 don't see the issue.

[Banquo]

If Labour had even vaguely sensible leadership they would romp home. Corbyn is an anchor on their chances.

Yes, especially as their most popular policies that wouldn't stand up to scrutiny aren't being scrutinised.

[Puja]

If Labour had even vaguely sensible leadership they would romp home. Corbyn is an anchor on their chances.

Yes, especially as their most popular policies that wouldn't stand up to scrutiny aren't being scrutinised.

That's true all around though. Everyone's realised that you can promise and say anything you like, because news spreads faster than fact checking nowadays.

There should be a law against politicians and media spreading verifiable falsehoods, with the first repetition necessitating public withdrawal of the statement, and punishments escalating if the lie is repeated.

Puja

[Digby]

I feel I should report whilst raking the leaves earlier and tipping them into the garden waste bin I spotted a £5 mixed in amongst the leaves, I suppose it's possible it had simply fallen out of an old pain of jeans I was wearing, but it is possible I've got a money tree growing somewhere, and both Labour and the Conservatives might wish to avail themselves of it with the lunatic spending promises.

Copses v forests of magic money trees. But many folks under the age of 40 don't see the issue.

I was chatting to an older teen yesterday who spent 10 minutes denouncing capitalism to me, and then said they didn't actually know what the LSE actually did and asked what it was and how it works. Whether they'll now think differently I don't know, but it was almost charming to see such certainty without understanding the process. And at heart it's hard to argue with a sense things should be fairer

[Banquo]

I feel I should report whilst raking the leaves earlier and tipping them into the garden waste bin I spotted a £5 mixed in amongst the leaves, I suppose it's possible it had simply fallen out of an old pain of jeans I was wearing, but it is possible I've got a money tree growing somewhere, and both Labour and the Conservatives might wish to avail themselves of it with the lunatic spending promises.

Copses v forests of magic money trees. But many folks under the age of 40 don't see the issue.

I was chatting to an older teen yesterday who spent 10 minutes denouncing capitalism to me, and then said they didn't actually know what the LSE actually did and asked what it was and how it works. Whether they'll now think differently I don't know, but it was almost charming to see such certainty without understanding the process. And at heart it's hard to argue with a sense things should be fairer

I agree with the fairness piece- it’s how you get there that’s the key.

[Banquo]

If Labour had even vaguely sensible leadership they would romp home. Corbyn is an anchor on their chances.

Yes, especially as their most popular policies that wouldn't stand up to scrutiny aren't being scrutinised.

That's true all around though. Everyone's realised that you can promise and say anything you like, because news spreads faster than fact checking nowadays.

There should be a law against politicians and media spreading verifiable falsehoods, with the first repetition necessitating public withdrawal of the statement, and punishments escalating if the lie is repeated.

Puja

Oh yes. But scale of promises is important too.

[Puja]

Yes, especially as their most popular policies that wouldn't stand up to scrutiny aren't being scrutinised.

That's true all around though. Everyone's realised that you can promise and say anything you like, because news spreads faster than fact checking nowadays.

There should be a law against politicians and media spreading verifiable falsehoods, with the first repetition necessitating public withdrawal of the statement, and punishments escalating if the lie is repeated.

Puja

Oh yes. But scale of promises is important too.

Indeed.

Got a belting example of being able to say whatever the hell you like today. Labour announce a policy of grants and interest free loans for home energy saving upgrades, which is costed as £60bn public outlay with the idea that it would stimulate construction and industries that make things like solar panels, heat pumps, insulation, etc and be an overall boost to the economy, as well as reducing bills and giving us a hope in hell of meeting our emissions targets. It's a really good policy.

Conservative response? "Independent experts and even Labour's own unions say their promises don't stack up. The reality is that Jeremy Corbyn's plans would wreck the economy, putting up bills for hardworking families - and preventing any real progress on climate change. Only Boris Johnson and the Conservatives have a proper plan to continue reducing carbon emissions faster than any other G20 country, building on the 400,000 low-carbon jobs we've already created, while keeping bills low."

You will not be surprised to learn that no independent experts or Labour's own unions have made a comment on this, let alone saying that it doesn't stack up. The second sentence is just saying the opposite of whatever Labour have said, "Corbyn says his plan will stimulate the economy, reduce bills, and help fight against climate change - the truth is that he will wreck the economy, raise bills, and burn the planet, and do it deliberately too, the communist fucker!" And then the last bit is the icing on the cake, saying that Boris has a plan to reduce carbon emission, when what they in fact have is a target which we are currently due to sail airily by.

Puja