RugbyRebels

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:

Great site.

The I can't get the numbers to exactly agree to the ONS England and Wales numbers (which is slightly annoying), but they're basically the same - within ~1k.

What this also gives is the option of using the "adjusted five year average", ie "National five-year average data for each week and place, scaled down by a factor (XXX) to fit the observed total number of deaths nationally over the first 10 weeks of the year. This can be thought of as an 'expected' trend, given what was observed in the first 10 weeks of the year, and assuming the trend over time follows the five-year average. This baseline will produce larger excess deaths than the first method using unadjusted five-year average deaths."

This is useful because, the first 10 weeks of the year (ie those before any official Covid-19 deaths) had lower all-cause deaths than the 5-year average, suggesting that had there been no Covid-19, the deaths for the year would have been lower than that average. Adjusting for this adds about 12,000 deaths to the total, so around 71k deaths to 29 May (and that's only Eng & Wal). Obviously this method can be debated but it does suggest that the ~60k excess deaths is an underestimate of the Covid-19 impact.

Sandydragon wrote:

Galfon wrote:

Donny osmond wrote:In possible good news???

https://thehill.com/homenews/coronaviru ... -very-rare

hope so - 'possible' the keyword here. (It's from WHO / unpublished data, conflcting with early research from China):

'...Such undocumented cases are still contagious and the study found them to be the source of most of the virus’s spread in China before the restrictions came in. Even though these people were only 55 per cent as contagious as people with symptoms, the study found that they were the source of 79 per cent of further infections, due to there being more of them, and the higher likelihood that they were out and about.'

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... ve-got-it/

Some reports in the media today that the virus was hitting Chinese hospitals back in August.

I suspect that there will be many unresolved questions in the aftermath of this.

And that it’s been in the U.K. since Jan.....

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:

Donny osmond wrote:In possible good news???

https://thehill.com/homenews/coronaviru ... -very-rare

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Bad news in my view. My great hope was that there was a shit ton of hidden transmission and therefore a large body of people who were unknowingly immune.

She/WHO has now backtracked.

Donny osmond wrote:In possible good news???

https://thehill.com/homenews/coronaviru ... -very-rare

Was retracted within a few hours wasn't it?

I think the horse has bolted chaps. It is what it is now. Individual common sense is that is left.


What a fucking mess.

I struggled to decide where to post this. On this thread it sounds like bad news. On the America thread it’s good maybe?

canta_brian wrote:I struggled to decide where to post this. On this thread it sounds like bad news. On the America thread it’s good maybe?

Well, considering it's not just Oklahoma, but Tulsa, and also on the anniversary of the end of slavery in the USA, I can't imagine there'll be any racial implications that could mean it should be in the America thread. I'm sure Trump will be dignified, presidential, and able to stick on script.

Puja

Given Mr Miller writes/approves those scripts the hope they'd be dignified seems fanciful at best

canta_brian wrote:I struggled to decide where to post this. On this thread it sounds like bad news. On the America thread it’s good maybe?

"post" coronavirus is a bit hopeful, no?

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Donny osmond wrote:

canta_brian wrote:I struggled to decide where to post this. On this thread it sounds like bad news. On the America thread it’s good maybe?

"post" coronavirus is a bit hopeful, no?

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No intransigeance there noting it should be the intra coronavirus campaign rally for the intractable

Donny osmond wrote:

canta_brian wrote:I struggled to decide where to post this. On this thread it sounds like bad news. On the America thread it’s good maybe?

"post" coronavirus is a bit hopeful, no?

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It's fucking delusional. Florida and other "opened up" states are seeing a spike in cases, even accounting for the purging of non-partisan oversight

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/20 ... ails-show/

Digby wrote:Given Mr Miller writes/approves those scripts the hope they'd be dignified seems fanciful at best

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulsa_race_massacre

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juneteenth

The "rally" is scheduled for June 19th....

Surely, not everyone involved in the planning of this klan meeting can be this ignorant. If they aren't ignorant, then, well.

So, the America thread is now talking about British politics, and the COVID thread is now talking about American racism. Anyone want to go talk about COVID in the Snap election thread?

Puja

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:The UK went ahead of Spain in the per capita deaths today, based on the (underestimated) official deaths. So, ignoring tiny San Marino and Andorra, there's only Belgium ahead of us.

In the rolling 7-day average deaths, Sweden leads, then Brazil, then UK, then Peru ... all jostling for position.

Per capita rolling 7-day average: Brazil leads, Sweden & Peru second, Mexico lurches up into fourth, UK fifth.

Chile is the new leader in the 7-day rolling average daily deaths, but that was because of a big catch-up number on the 7th. On the 14th it will presumably fall back in amongst the other Latin American disaster areas. Second is Brazil, then Peru, then Mexico. Sweden and UK continue a gentle descent; I think Moldova may be ahead of us now.

Puja wrote:So, the America thread is now talking about British politics, and the COVID thread is now talking about American racism. Anyone want to go talk about COVID in the Snap election thread?

Puja

Sorry dad.

morepork wrote:

Puja wrote:So, the America thread is now talking about British politics, and the COVID thread is now talking about American racism. Anyone want to go talk about COVID in the Snap election thread?

Puja

Sorry dad.

It was a serious suggestion, before SoM brought us rudely back on topic here with a Covid post.

Puja

I take your point.

Puja wrote:

morepork wrote:

Puja wrote:So, the America thread is now talking about British politics, and the COVID thread is now talking about American racism. Anyone want to go talk about COVID in the Snap election thread?

Puja

Sorry dad.

It was a serious suggestion, before SoM brought us rudely back on topic here with a Covid post.

Puja

Challenge accepted.

The good news keeps coming -
80% of the UK economy was saved in April... we're on our way.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53019360

Galfon wrote:The good news keeps coming -
80% of the UK economy was saved in April... we're on our way.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53019360

But we are about to have one of the biggest economic retractions amongst the world richest countries.

Apparently.

Oxford vaccine trial is recruiting wider age range for testing ('phase 2'), but against a backdrop of decreasing cases in uk.Looks like the hopeful Sep date for readiness may slip.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html

sobering stuff. every part of the UK is lead by incompetents. Yes Johnston and his band of twats in the cabinet need to take the lions share of responsibility, but the reality is that almost everyone involved in local, regional and national administration has blood on their hands from this. the sheer volume of whitewashing required is actually going to be impressive to watch, in a fury inducing way.

similar analysis from around europe, including the hardest hit countries like spain and italy, show that the UK had the worst spread of the virus from at least the main european countries. almost every other country contained the virus better, i.e. their lockdowns were more effective in stopping the spread.

it's easy to point at the powers that be, and that needs to be done, see my previous post, but the UK public has to take our share of the blame too. we've sunk to some point of feeling like we can do whatever we want without worrying about consequences, while squealing about rights or freedoms or some other bullshit that completely ignores collective responsibility. yes, we've been pushed down this road by our politicians and media, but we've gone down it with our eyes wide open.