COVID19

[Sandydragon]

sobering stuff. every part of the UK is lead by incompetents. Yes Johnston and his band of twats in the cabinet need to take the lions share of responsibility, but the reality is that almost everyone involved in local, regional and national administration has blood on their hands from this. the sheer volume of whitewashing required is actually going to be impressive to watch, in a fury inducing way.

Possible exception of Ceredigion.

[Donny osmond]

sobering stuff. every part of the UK is lead by incompetents. Yes Johnston and his band of twats in the cabinet need to take the lions share of responsibility, but the reality is that almost everyone involved in local, regional and national administration has blood on their hands from this. the sheer volume of whitewashing required is actually going to be impressive to watch, in a fury inducing way.

Possible exception of Ceredigion.

[emoji1] made me lol, I will happily accept I know naught of the handling of covid in ceredigion. Actually had to Google it as never even heard of it!

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

[Galfon]

[
Actually had to Google it as never even heard of it!
Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

You will have worn a cardy or two when growing up I suspect! ; fantastic coastline, but don't tell anyone....
When this is over ( presumably someone will need to blow full-time ), the figures will be staggering.

[Son of Mathonwy]

similar analysis from around europe, including the hardest hit countries like spain and italy, show that the UK had the worst spread of the virus from at least the main european countries. almost every other country contained the virus better, i.e. their lockdowns were more effective in stopping the spread.

it's easy to point at the powers that be, and that needs to be done, see my previous post, but the UK public has to take our share of the blame too. we've sunk to some point of feeling like we can do whatever we want without worrying about consequences, while squealing about rights or freedoms or some other bullshit that completely ignores collective responsibility. yes, we've been pushed down this road by our politicians and media, but we've gone down it with our eyes wide open.

To this and your previous post, what could local government, let alone the general public have done when the covid-19 response is planned, coordinated and funded at the national level (which has ignored local expertise until a shamefully late stage)?

Could local government, (with no extra funding) have:
1) accessed the scientific expertise at SAGE or COBRA meetings?
2) ramped up covid-19 testing?
3) created a contact-tracing operation?
4) tested and quarantined new arrivals to the UK?
5) implemented social distancing measures and authorised the police to fine those not complying?

What else are you expecting of the public? They've complied with the restrictions put on them, more so than the government expected. The only significant amount of dangerous activity has been approved by the government, before the lockdown began and for the last month when (for example) workers have been forced back to work, and children back to school.

I'm struggling to see where we share the blame in all of this.

[Son of Mathonwy]

sobering stuff. every part of the UK is lead by incompetents. Yes Johnston and his band of twats in the cabinet need to take the lions share of responsibility, but the reality is that almost everyone involved in local, regional and national administration has blood on their hands from this. the sheer volume of whitewashing required is actually going to be impressive to watch, in a fury inducing way.

It's a consistent picture across the country because the covid-19 response is consistent across the country, because it's run by central government.

No idea how you can drag local government into this.

[Sandydragon]

sobering stuff. every part of the UK is lead by incompetents. Yes Johnston and his band of twats in the cabinet need to take the lions share of responsibility, but the reality is that almost everyone involved in local, regional and national administration has blood on their hands from this. the sheer volume of whitewashing required is actually going to be impressive to watch, in a fury inducing way.

Possible exception of Ceredigion.

[emoji1] made me lol, I will happily accept I know naught of the handling of covid in ceredigion. Actually had to Google it as never even heard of it!

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

Interesting article in the Times today about a Local health official who set up a rudimentary track and trace system and kept the infection very low, even accounting for the rural nature of the area.

[Sandydragon]

sobering stuff. every part of the UK is lead by incompetents. Yes Johnston and his band of twats in the cabinet need to take the lions share of responsibility, but the reality is that almost everyone involved in local, regional and national administration has blood on their hands from this. the sheer volume of whitewashing required is actually going to be impressive to watch, in a fury inducing way.

It's a consistent picture across the country because the covid-19 response is consistent across the country, because it's run by central government.

No idea how you can drag local government into this.

That only applies in England.

[Banquo]

Interested in folks views on the SAGE minutes?

https://www.gov.uk/search/transparency- ... mergencies

[morepork]

Interested in folks views on the SAGE minutes?

https://www.gov.uk/search/transparency- ... mergencies

The May 12th meeting is remarkable for its lack of practical, actionable directives. There is a huge amount of assumption that cannot be validated for lack of accurate data. Pretty much all modeling assumptions are finished with the phrase, "a test, trace, and isolate system needs to be put in place." The same narrative populates the May 1st document, albeit with an increased assumption that testing is the way to go. You can actually see how the acknowledgement that testing is key evolves over time as the epidemiological data hits home, but it comes across as a group of individuals that do not know what to do about it. An ineffectual group of nothing. There is no hard core data driving the discussion away from assumptions. Pretty grim actually.

[Banquo]

Interested in folks views on the SAGE minutes?

https://www.gov.uk/search/transparency- ... mergencies

The May 12th meeting is remarkable for its lack of practical, actionable directives. There is a huge amount of assumption that cannot be validated for lack of accurate data. Pretty much all modeling assumptions are finished with the phrase, "a test, trace, and isolate system needs to be put in place." The same narrative populates the May 1st document, albeit with an increased assumption that testing is the way to go. You can actually see how the acknowledgement that testing is key evolves over time as the epidemiological data hits home, but it comes across as a group of individuals that do not know what to do about it. An ineffectual group of nothing. There is no hard core data driving the discussion away from assumptions. Pretty grim actually.

That's what struck me all the way through from the very start of the documentation. Lack of urgency, understanding, and looking for 'silver bullet evidence' to drive decision making- even a lack of intellectual curiosity. From the 13th March minutes it didn't appear they knew that this was a highly contagious killer that had already landed, my jaw simply dropped. Also, and it might sound trivial, but a key working party working to SAGE is still called SPI-B......the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours. Its not influenza, chaps; it might be irrelevant, but it seems kind if symbolic- all the planning, all the thinking, was for an influenza type infection. Wrong- and the speed of thinking shown in these documents seems......very, very slow.

[morepork]

It doesn't look great.

[Sandydragon]

Interested in folks views on the SAGE minutes?

https://www.gov.uk/search/transparency- ... mergencies

The May 12th meeting is remarkable for its lack of practical, actionable directives. There is a huge amount of assumption that cannot be validated for lack of accurate data. Pretty much all modeling assumptions are finished with the phrase, "a test, trace, and isolate system needs to be put in place." The same narrative populates the May 1st document, albeit with an increased assumption that testing is the way to go. You can actually see how the acknowledgement that testing is key evolves over time as the epidemiological data hits home, but it comes across as a group of individuals that do not know what to do about it. An ineffectual group of nothing. There is no hard core data driving the discussion away from assumptions. Pretty grim actually.

That's what struck me all the way through from the very start of the documentation. Lack of urgency, understanding, and looking for 'silver bullet evidence' to drive decision making- even a lack of intellectual curiosity. From the 13th March minutes it didn't appear they knew that this was a highly contagious killer that had already landed, my jaw simply dropped. Also, and it might sound trivial, but a key working party working to SAGE is still called SPI-B......the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours. Its not influenza, chaps; it might be irrelevant, but it seems kind if symbolic- all the planning, all the thinking, was for an influenza type infection. Wrong- and the speed of thinking shown in these documents seems......very, very slow.

I think the enquiry is going to have a field day. Politicians have a lot to answer for, but the scientists don't get away scot free either. The key bit missing for me is what they were getting from the WHO (I know about the public stuff) what else were they getting that wasn't made public? Why did so many intelligence men and women persist with a view that was so dangerous for so long? Is there something the minutes are telling us or was this a particular form of group think? Why didn't Sage consider a lockdown to be the right tactic when so many other scientists were screaming for it, both the UK and overseas?

Lots of questions.

[Galfon]

"But our ability to handle the crisis has been negated by a lacklustre communications strategy that saw the government encourage people to go back to normal, all while the curve was soaring upwards..”

This came from a former Health Minister...
in Chile...the last incumbent has just walked:
https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... o-covid-19

Chile pop. only 19M,
-daily deaths (7-day avge.) 200 & still rising,( uk..170.)
-new cases daily 5660, (uk.1310)

'premature return to normality', 'dynamic lockdowns', 'failing to appreciate levels of poverty & overcrowding' all mentioned.
governments are on a hiding to nothing if they f¥ck up early-doors; losing loved ones or your livelihood, (if you manage to survive) - happy?..

[Sandydragon]

It seems no one wants to get left behind in the unlocking phase. It seems most countries are looking to take risks now.

[Puja]

I can't help but feel that NZ and Australia are going to be the big winners out of this. NZ is now completely back to normal and Australia has got a decent roadmap to being in the same position. It's infuriating, cause we could have achieved the same (being an island nation and having derped so hard for control of our borders), and been back in a position where we had full stadia for Premier League matches, high street back in full flow, our entire internal economy back up and running. An early and complete lockdown of everything and severing of foreign travel would've cost us massively, but you'd imagine we'll lose more from this neverending twilight.

Puja

[Digby]

We couldn't have matched what NZ did even if we'd tried and been really good at it, and too they're hardly back to normal in NZ and Australia

[Stom]

We couldn't have matched what NZ did even if we'd tried and been really good at it, and too they're hardly back to normal in NZ and Australia

The more populous your country, the harder hit you are.

If you've got 4 men and a dog spread across 2 huge islands...you're probably going to be OK.

[Galfon]

.. a dog spread across 2 huge islands...you're probably going to be OK.

with a dog that clever, you can't fail

[Sandydragon]

We couldn't have matched what NZ did even if we'd tried and been really good at it, and too they're hardly back to normal in NZ and Australia

The more populous your country, the harder hit you are.

If you've got 4 men and a dog spread across 2 huge islands...you're probably going to be OK.

There is truth in that, but if we had gone for a hard lockdown 2 weeks earlier and continued to contact trace, we could have been in a much better boat. We would still have had thousands of deaths, but perhaps we could have cut the total deaths to a quarter.

[Stones of granite]

We couldn't have matched what NZ did even if we'd tried and been really good at it, and too they're hardly back to normal in NZ and Australia

The more populous your country, the harder hit you are.

If you've got 4 men and a dog spread across 2 huge islands...you're probably going to be OK.

There is truth in that, but if we had gone for a hard lockdown 2 weeks earlier and continued to contact trace, we could have been in a much better boat. We would still have had thousands of deaths, but perhaps we could have cut the total deaths to a quarter.

It was never going to happen. The same voices that were prevailing, right up until shagger got a fright from the Ferguson model are the same voices that are trying to accelerate the exit from lockdown and reduce the social distancing gap. If he had managed to wash his hands that time, and not fallen it, we'd already be right into the second wave now.

[morepork]

I'd be focusing more on the leadership differences as opposed to the relative population sizes. The UK does not appear to have embraced any one single clear strategy and just bumbled along doing effectively nothing. NZ may have a small spread out population, but the major population centers all had some degree of community transmission and that has been stamped out. There's your data.

[Stom]

We couldn't have matched what NZ did even if we'd tried and been really good at it, and too they're hardly back to normal in NZ and Australia

The more populous your country, the harder hit you are.

If you've got 4 men and a dog spread across 2 huge islands...you're probably going to be OK.

There is truth in that, but if we had gone for a hard lockdown 2 weeks earlier and continued to contact trace, we could have been in a much better boat. We would still have had thousands of deaths, but perhaps we could have cut the total deaths to a quarter.

As much as the UK has done this terribly, the government here hardly tested en masse. Yet here we are with a fraction of the per capita death toll.

Population density has proved the number 1 factor in spread.

[Sandydragon]

I'd be focusing more on the leadership differences as opposed to the relative population sizes. The UK does not appear to have embraced any one single clear strategy and just bumbled along doing effectively nothing. NZ may have a small spread out population, but the major population centers all had some degree of community transmission and that has been stamped out. There's your data.

That’s hard to dispute. Scientists and politicians will blame each other for this, but both seem to be culpable. The politicians failed to provide leadership. Even without a scientific background, it’s perfectly possible to ask the question why Sage isn’t recommending a lockdown when the WHO and the rest of the world are recommending/ doing just that.

The scientists should review some of their decision making. Why did they focus so much on the flu? Were there the right scientists present on Sage? Were they being sufficiently clear to the politicians or being too couched in their language. Why did they feel that their advice should be different to the rest of the world?

Many many questions.

[Stones of granite]

I'd be focusing more on the leadership differences as opposed to the relative population sizes. The UK does not appear to have embraced any one single clear strategy and just bumbled along doing effectively nothing. NZ may have a small spread out population, but the major population centers all had some degree of community transmission and that has been stamped out. There's your data.

It's really not at all unlike Scotland - a low overall population density that hides the fact that there are areas of very high population density where the majority of the population happen to live.
Obviously New Zealand is a little less well connected as well, but I think the main difference is how quickly the NZ Government reacted, while British politicians seemed to have been caught like rabbits in the headlights.

[fivepointer]

NZ had a clear strategy from the outset: they would eliminate the virus. They werent interested in trying to keep a lid on things and reduce the death toll. They set out to hit the virus hard early on. Its worked a treat.
Now they obviously had advantages being an island and having a largely rural, dispersed population, but they made them work to their advantage and have had the benefit of clear and direct leadership.
Crucially their medics recognised early that this wasnt a flu like virus but something far nastier and far more infectious.
In addition to the abysmal leadership we've had, I do think questions need to be asked about the composition of SAGE and about the advice they have provided.