COVID19

[Digby]

Now they obviously had advantages being an island and having a largely rural, dispersed population

It's not actually the Shire, pretty much everyone lives in/around the big towns and cities

[morepork]

It was the response that saved NZ, not the geography. Taiwan, also an island, has 5x the population of NZ and managed to keep a lid on things because their leaders are on to it and acted decisively and early. That's the variable here.

[Sandydragon]

It was the response that saved NZ, not the geography. Taiwan, also an island, has 5x the population of NZ and managed to keep a lid on things because their leaders are on to it and acted decisively and early. That's the variable here.

Firm decisive leadership which provided a clear goal. Nothing incredible about that except for the fact that such leadership was badly lacking.

I can understand the initial indecision. We can’t shut down for everything. But the alarm bells should have been sounding when Italy went downhill so quickly.

[Galfon]

Must have blown over now eh ?..
Deaths under 50, thousands protesting at weekends, illegal raves ( 2 in Manc. at weekend - several thousand at each ), Bicester burstin'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-o ... e-53057199
...good to see protective face-coverings finally out there now we're at this point.
A few weeks back it would be Covidiot-of-the-week time,
but the Norm appears to have re-newed again.

[morepork]

Rave away UK. What could go wrong?

[Digby]

I see we've decided to outsource Covid to NZ, a brave new strategy, well maybe now new, we've been outsourcing for a while now

[Galfon]

Greece has done a great job to date, but it seems we're doing our bit with them too..( new case from english tutor in a 'free' location) - they've now banned us from touring for a while longer.

[Sandydragon]

Quite comical that we are wanting to quarantine people arriving in the UK whilst exporting the virus merrily.

Import controls and tariff free exports - sounds like a Brexiteers wet dream.

[Mikey Brown]

Must have blown over now eh ?..
Deaths under 50, thousands protesting at weekends, illegal raves ( 2 in Manc. at weekend - several thousand at each ), Bicester burstin'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-o ... e-53057199
...good to see protective face-coverings finally out there now we're at this point.
A few weeks back it would be Covidiot-of-the-week time,
but the Norm appears to have re-newed again.

The info on wearing a mask here has just been absurd. I feel like the message most people got was "we're not totally sure yet so I guess wear one if you fancy it?" and now finally it's being recommended it feels far too late.

It's awful thinking about the number of people that happily would have worn one were it normalised more quickly, but embarrassment or vanity are quite powerful.

[Digby]

we haven't got good info on wearing masks yet, as in what materials, made how, stored/disposed how, washed how, length for wearing before replacing and so on. so even now the advice hasn't come too late, it's still some mix of the inadequate and the incompetent

also whilst we have info on hand washing there's not much being said about length of fingernails, fake nails, whether wearing bracelets (including watches) is a good idea, what of rings?

[Banquo]

we haven't got good info on wearing masks yet, as in what materials, made how, stored/disposed how, washed how, length for wearing before replacing and so on. so even now the advice hasn't come too late, it's still some mix of the inadequate and the incompetent

also whilst we have info on hand washing there's not much being said about length of fingernails, fake nails, whether wearing bracelets (including watches) is a good idea, what of rings?

Are you talking about work?

[Banquo]

Must have blown over now eh ?..
Deaths under 50, thousands protesting at weekends, illegal raves ( 2 in Manc. at weekend - several thousand at each ), Bicester burstin'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-o ... e-53057199
...good to see protective face-coverings finally out there now we're at this point.
A few weeks back it would be Covidiot-of-the-week time,
but the Norm appears to have re-newed again.

The info on wearing a mask here has just been absurd. I feel like the message most people got was "we're not totally sure yet so I guess wear one if you fancy it?" and now finally it's being recommended it feels far too late.

It's awful thinking about the number of people that happily would have worn one were it normalised more quickly, but embarrassment or vanity are quite powerful.

Try reading the WHO advice, they must have splinters.

[Which Tyler]

Try reading the WHO advice, they must have splinters.

The trouble with the WHO is that they're there mostly to give advice to poor countries who can't afford to do their own research and come up with more targetted plans for their own needs - yet are funded by those who can afford to.
They're not so much giving advice for the UK's approach (beyond wanting us to set a good example) - they're worried about giving advice on washing hands / masks for that portion of the global population who doesn't have access to soap or clean water - where a mask (for example) would quickly become a massive infection risk for hundreds of different bacteria.

They then get reported on by media from wealthy countries who like to go into attack-dog mode, don't really do nuance, but enjoy a good bit of mis-representation; and have a punching bag that can't punch back.


Ultimately, on masks - the scientific answer for their efficacy is "it's complicated, and it depends".

[Banquo]

Try reading the WHO advice, they must have splinters.

The trouble with the WHO is that they're there mostly to give advice to poor countries who can't afford to do their own research and come up with more targetted plans for their own needs - yet are funded by those who can afford to.
They're not so much giving advice for the UK's approach (beyond wanting us to set a good example) - they're worried about giving advice on washing hands / masks for that portion of the global population who doesn't have access to soap or clean water - where a mask (for example) would quickly become a massive infection risk for hundreds of different bacteria.

They then get reported on by media from wealthy countries who like to go into attack-dog mode, don't really do nuance, but enjoy a good bit of mis-representation; and have a punching bag that can't punch back.

Have you read the guidance on face masks, out of interest? I did, because obviously my staff do.

[Which Tyler]

Have you read the guidance on face masks, out of interest? I did, because obviously my staff do.

Not for a few weeks; so I suspect it's changed since I last read it.

[Banquo]

Have you read the guidance on face masks, out of interest? I did, because obviously my staff do.

Not for a few weeks; so I suspect it's changed since I last read it.

5th June is the latest.

and yes to your edit.

[Digby]

we haven't got good info on wearing masks yet, as in what materials, made how, stored/disposed how, washed how, length for wearing before replacing and so on. so even now the advice hasn't come too late, it's still some mix of the inadequate and the incompetent

also whilst we have info on hand washing there's not much being said about length of fingernails, fake nails, whether wearing bracelets (including watches) is a good idea, what of rings?

Are you talking about work?

people being anywhere they might interact with others

[Galfon]

Dexamethasone - anti-inflammatory, already widely available - found to be beneficial in serious cases.(Oxford U ).A welcome piece to the jigsaw it looks..

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53061281

[Sandydragon]

Dexamethasone - anti-inflammatory, already widely available - found to be beneficial in serious cases.(Oxford U ).A welcome piece to the jigsaw it looks..

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53061281

Just read that, some welcome news in reducing the impact for some people.

[morepork]

I think the myth of market forces working for the public good has been blown apart. Both the US and UK have had a hands-off mantra in government for a while, and it has just been comical watching both sets of fuckheads try to spin the virus away with empty management speak. In the US the complete lack of a public health system has shown exactly how good for the public the private sector is in the health care field. I am a bit shocked at how inept the UK has been in this, but as I familiarise myself with the players in the tragicomedy it is perhaps not so surprising. Shame it is not possible to vaccinate against toxic ideology. When the climate starts seriously fucking with food and water supply, I hope idiots like these are long gone.

[Son of Mathonwy]

I think the myth of market forces working for the public good has been blown apart. Both the US and UK have had a hands-off mantra in government for a while, and it has just been comical watching both sets of fuckheads try to spin the virus away with empty management speak. In the US the complete lack of a public health system has shown exactly how good for the public the private sector is in the health care field. I am a bit shocked at how inept the UK has been in this, but as I familiarise myself with the players in the tragicomedy it is perhaps not so surprising. Shame it is not possible to vaccinate against toxic ideology. When the climate starts seriously fucking with food and water supply, I hope idiots like these are long gone.

The NHS may be public sector but this government handed most additional Covid-19 work to the private sector, whether they have any relevant expertise or not.

[Son of Mathonwy]

New ONS numbers today...
Up to 5 Jun, we have:
Positive test UK Covid-19 deaths: 40,261
All UK Covid-19 deaths (ONS number): 51,804
So the total UK number is 29% higher than the government number.

Assuming this ratio holds to date, we have as of 16 Jun:
Positive test UK Covid-19 deaths: 41,969
All UK Covid-19 deaths (extrapolated): 54,002

Ultimately a more important number is the excess deaths for any cause, if we assume Covid-19 is the main driver of the excess.
Recently, the excess deaths per week have approximately equalled the "Covid-19 death certificate" ONS number,
So to estimate the excess deaths to 16 Jun I use the 5 Jun excess number and add the subsequent estimated ONS number:
Excess deaths compared with 5 year average to 5 Jun: 64,348
Estimated increase in all UK Covid-19 deaths from 5 Jun to 16 Jun: 54,002 - 51,804 = 2,198
Therefore:
All UK excess deaths (presumably due to Covid-19) to 16 Jun: 66,545
which is 59% higher than the government number.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Last week's prediction:

Prediction for 5 Jun (based on 29 May ONS + 5 Jun gov numbers):
All UK, positive tests only: actual = 40,261
All UK, deaths involving Covid-19: prediction: 52,273
All UK, excess deaths: prediction: 65,696

Comparing with today's actual figures (for 5 Jun):
All UK, positive tests only: actual = 40,261
All UK, deaths involving Covid-19: prediction: 52,273 actual: 51,804 actual/prediction: -0.9%
All UK, excess deaths: prediction: 65,696 actual: 64,348 actual/prediction: -2.1%

[Mellsblue]

The NHS may be public sector but this government handed most additional Covid-19 work to the private sector, whether they have any relevant expertise or not.

Granted there are examples of this. However, luckily, the private sector did step in with great success to bail out the public sector, whether it was the PPE supply chain in the U.K. (along with the army) or the testing capacity in Germany - something PHE failed to do and is one of the reasons we’ve been playing catch up for so long. It is the case that the private sector stepped into numerous vacuums they had no experience in but these were also in areas where the public sector had no experience and, crucially, no capacity to perform.
As always, a mixture of private and public sector is best.

[morepork]

The NHS may be public sector but this government handed most additional Covid-19 work to the private sector, whether they have any relevant expertise or not.

Granted there are examples of this. However, luckily, the private sector did step in with great success to bail out the public sector, whether it was the PPE supply chain in the U.K. (along with the army) or the testing capacity in Germany - something PHE failed to do and is one of the reasons we’ve been playing catch up for so long. It is the case that the private sector stepped into numerous vacuums they had no experience in but these were also in areas where the public sector had no experience and, crucially, no capacity to perform.
As always, a mixture of private and public sector is best.

The make up of that mixture has been problematic. The appropriate private sector resources more or less have to be compelled to act appropriately. The US has the Defence Production Act (which the government declined to use), and I'm sure the UK has something similar and I no not if it was used, but from where I'm standing it looks as though you got a gaggle of the wrong private sector geeks together for the job.