If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Mellsblue]

No. 4 is the only thing about this to even give you a hope of a smile. You could also add in to that point that the U.K. and the EU/France have, hopefully, remembered that we’re better off working together rather than sniping at each other.

[paddy no 11]

Today I'm convinced someone will whack putin in a month or at least overthrow him

[Zhivago]

Today I'm convinced someone will whack putin in a month or at least overthrow him

Hence why he is hiding in a bunker in the Urals.

[Galfon]

A fire has reportedly broken out in Europe’s largest nuclear power plant located in Zaporizhzhya, following continuous shelling of buildings and units there, ​the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.
Not a good thing.

[Which Tyler]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60613438

[Zhivago]

A fire has reportedly broken out in Europe’s largest nuclear power plant located in Zaporizhzhya, following continuous shelling of buildings and units there, ​the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.
Not a good thing.

Energy exports must be sanctioned

[Donny osmond]

It seems the coach if Locomotiv Moscow has quit in protest at the war. This might seem like a pathetically trite little thing in the face of what's happening in Ukraine, but it's the sort of little thing that might end up making a big difference inside Russia itself.

Sent from my CPH2195 using Tapatalk

[Sandydragon]

The shelling of a nuclear power plant is idiotic and arguably a war crime. In other areas an article in the Times suggests that Putins cabinet didn’t have a clue over the full scope of his plans, they merely thought he would look to recognise the separatist areas, and were thus unprepared for the full range of sanctions that has hit them.

Possibly bull but it would be consistent with the level of unpreparedness that has been observed on the military front.

[Which Tyler]

The shelling of a nuclear power plant is idiotic and inarguably a war crime.

FTFY

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/ihl/WebART/470-750071

[Banquo]

The shelling of a nuclear power plant is idiotic and inarguably a war crime.

FTFY

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/ihl/WebART/470-750071

So what's the next move? Pretty clear that nothing done so far is going to stop him. Even if we think he'll get toppled in the mid-term, in the short term, Ukraine and its people will be devastated.

[Which Tyler]

So what's the next move? Pretty clear that nothing done so far is going to stop him. Even if we think he'll get toppled in the mid-term, in the short term, Ukraine and its people will be devastated.

Add it to the list.

And yes, these things take time, and he's essentially untouchable whilst he's in power (and will probably be dead before he has a chance to reach the Hague when he's out of power).
What can we do? Is getting involved (which would still take time to do - though hopefully less time than it would have taken 2 weeks ago) worth the risk nuclear war between Russia and NATO?

I don't have any answers.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... on-ukraine

ICC launches war crimes investigation over Russian invasion of Ukraine

International criminal court inquiry has been expedited by unprecedented number of countries backing move

A war crimes investigation has been launched into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine after an unprecedented number of countries backed the move and Boris Johnson called the military intervention “abhorrent”.

Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor for the international criminal court (ICC), said he would begin work “as rapidly as possible” to look for possible crimes against humanity or genocide committed in Ukraine.

The referral for investigation by 39 countries – including the UK – will shave several months off the process because it allows Khan to bypass the need to seek the approval of the court in The Hague.

ARTICLE CONTINUES...

In the absence of a real-life James Bond, assassination from without is... a touch unrealistic.
Given his complete control of Russian media, what I understand is access to all Russian social media, the locking up protestors, and the new (?) Russian treason laws - a 1917 style revolution from within is... a touch unrealistic.
Which leaves us two options - a palace coup, which "we" in the West might be able to influence
Being taken to see the Moskva river by the Praetorian Guard, which "we" in the West probably can't do much about

[Banquo]

So what's the next move? Pretty clear that nothing done so far is going to stop him. Even if we think he'll get toppled in the mid-term, in the short term, Ukraine and its people will be devastated.

Add it to the list.

And yes, these things take time, and he's essentially untouchable whilst he's in power (and will probably be dead before he has a chance to reach the Hague when he's out of power).
What can we do? Is getting involved (which would still take time to do - though hopefully less time than it would have taken 2 weeks ago) worth the risk nuclear war between Russia and NATO?

I don't have any answers.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... on-ukraine

ICC launches war crimes investigation over Russian invasion of Ukraine



International criminal court inquiry has been expedited by unprecedented number of countries backing move

A war crimes investigation has been launched into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine after an unprecedented number of countries backed the move and Boris Johnson called the military intervention “abhorrent”.

Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor for the international criminal court (ICC), said he would begin work “as rapidly as possible” to look for possible crimes against humanity or genocide committed in Ukraine.

The referral for investigation by 39 countries – including the UK – will shave several months off the process because it allows Khan to bypass the need to seek the approval of the court in The Hague.

ARTICLE CONTINUES...

In the absence of a real-life James Bond, assassination from without is... a touch unrealistic.
Given his complete control of Russian media, what I understand is access to all Russian social media, the locking up protestors, and the new (?) Russian treason laws - a 1917 style revolution from within is... a touch unrealistic.
Which leaves us two options - a palace coup, which "we" in the West might be able to influence
Being taken to see the Moskva river by the Praetorian Guard, which "we" in the West probably can't do much about

Yep, I got nothing; a lot of chat on online paper websites about taking him on militarily, quite blase about the consequences even nukes. I don't think we can go there. Somehow, 'regime change' has to be the answer.

[Son of Mathonwy]

as a sort of tangent, deploying tactical nuclear weapons is kind of standard war procedure for the Russian army according to Dannett. So...

It may be standard in a book. Never used in reality though...

The point is, tactical nuclear weapons are not regarded in the same way by the russion military as by us.....never say never

We can never say never. I'm just objecting to your use of the phrase 'kind of standard' for a technique that has never actually been used and would clearly require approval from the top. But I agree, from my layman's understanding, Russia's rulebook may take a more aggressive line in this area. Not that I've seen Russia's rulebook, or ours, or the US's.

[Banquo]

It may be standard in a book. Never used in reality though...

The point is, tactical nuclear weapons are not regarded in the same way by the russion military as by us.....never say never

We can never say never. I'm just objecting to your use of the phrase 'kind of standard' for a technique that has never actually been used and would clearly require approval from the top. But I agree, from my layman's understanding, Russia's rulebook may take a more aggressive line in this area. Not that I've seen Russia's rulebook, or ours, or the US's.

I was quoting from Dannatt's TV interview, who probably knows his stuff,and certainly our playbook. My point was he said the russians see tactical nukes as a standard part of their weaponry.

[Son of Mathonwy]

The shelling of a nuclear power plant is idiotic and inarguably a war crime.

FTFY

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/ihl/WebART/470-750071

So what's the next move? Pretty clear that nothing done so far is going to stop him. Even if we think he'll get toppled in the mid-term, in the short term, Ukraine and its people will be devastated.

As Z says, energy sanctions. And a complete ban of Russian banks (and indeed all entities) from SWIFT. Seizure of all Russian assets. (I'm not saying we should do these things immediately, but we should probably work through this list if things continue as they are).

But not even these would bring the invasion to a halt, or reverse it (although they would increase the chance of such things). Direct military intervention is the only thing that would work, and that would be a very bad idea.

We need to keep the Ukrainians supplied with arms, food, fuel and intelligence to keep their defence, and if necessary, their resistance going. We also need NATO to build up defences in European member states bordering on Russia or Belarus, similarly the EU needs to do this for Finland. Moldova (neither EU nor NATO) needs to be considered. Should we (EU, NATO, whatever) place troops there? Not fair on the Ukrainians that we would draw a line there, but still worth seriously considering.

[Banquo]

FTFY

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/ihl/WebART/470-750071

So what's the next move? Pretty clear that nothing done so far is going to stop him. Even if we think he'll get toppled in the mid-term, in the short term, Ukraine and its people will be devastated.

As Z says, energy sanctions. And a complete ban of Russian banks (and indeed all entities) from SWIFT. Seizure of all Russian assets. (I'm not saying we should do these things immediately, but we should probably work through this list if things continue as they are).

But not even these would bring the invasion to a halt, or reverse it (although they would increase the chance of such things). Direct military intervention is the only thing that would work, and that would be a very bad idea.

We need to keep the Ukrainians supplied with arms, food, fuel and intelligence to keep their defence, and if necessary, their resistance going. We also need NATO to build up defences in European member states bordering on Russia or Belarus, similarly the EU needs to do this for Finland. Moldova (neither EU nor NATO) needs to be considered. Should we (EU, NATO, whatever) place troops there? Not fair on the Ukrainians that we would draw a line there, but still worth seriously considering.

Seems the 1sr para is happening, albeit slowly, and the last para is in place. The problem is that the long term is a bloody long time for 41m Ukrainians. Awful- i have nothing.

[Son of Mathonwy]

A fire has reportedly broken out in Europe’s largest nuclear power plant located in Zaporizhzhya, following continuous shelling of buildings and units there, ​the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.
Not a good thing.

Energy exports must be sanctioned

I hope our leaders are talking to their nuclear power experts on this. If there's any potential for another Chernobyl - or worse - then this could indiscriminately kill untold numbers in Ukraine or any nearby state (including Russia) - so we should make a point that this is a clear war crime (and that the wind is just as likely to take the deathcloud into Russia as anywhere else) and step up sanctions.

Maybe Putin hasn't watched Chernobyl (the series). But then the real horror of that was the potential deathtoll the characters fought to avoid. I don't think such things keep Putin awake at night.

[Son of Mathonwy]

So what's the next move? Pretty clear that nothing done so far is going to stop him. Even if we think he'll get toppled in the mid-term, in the short term, Ukraine and its people will be devastated.

As Z says, energy sanctions. And a complete ban of Russian banks (and indeed all entities) from SWIFT. Seizure of all Russian assets. (I'm not saying we should do these things immediately, but we should probably work through this list if things continue as they are).

But not even these would bring the invasion to a halt, or reverse it (although they would increase the chance of such things). Direct military intervention is the only thing that would work, and that would be a very bad idea.

We need to keep the Ukrainians supplied with arms, food, fuel and intelligence to keep their defence, and if necessary, their resistance going. We also need NATO to build up defences in European member states bordering on Russia or Belarus, similarly the EU needs to do this for Finland. Moldova (neither EU nor NATO) needs to be considered. Should we (EU, NATO, whatever) place troops there? Not fair on the Ukrainians that we would draw a line there, but still worth seriously considering.

Seems the 1sr para is happening, albeit slowly, and the last para is in place. The problem is that the long term is a bloody long time for 41m Ukrainians. Awful- i have nothing.

The hope is that these sanctions really have an effect. And the Russians aren't willing to put up with soviet-style hardship these days. But potentially this could go on for years, decades even.

[Banquo]

As Z says, energy sanctions. And a complete ban of Russian banks (and indeed all entities) from SWIFT. Seizure of all Russian assets. (I'm not saying we should do these things immediately, but we should probably work through this list if things continue as they are).

But not even these would bring the invasion to a halt, or reverse it (although they would increase the chance of such things). Direct military intervention is the only thing that would work, and that would be a very bad idea.

We need to keep the Ukrainians supplied with arms, food, fuel and intelligence to keep their defence, and if necessary, their resistance going. We also need NATO to build up defences in European member states bordering on Russia or Belarus, similarly the EU needs to do this for Finland. Moldova (neither EU nor NATO) needs to be considered. Should we (EU, NATO, whatever) place troops there? Not fair on the Ukrainians that we would draw a line there, but still worth seriously considering.

Seems the 1sr para is happening, albeit slowly, and the last para is in place. The problem is that the long term is a bloody long time for 41m Ukrainians. Awful- i have nothing.

The hope is that these sanctions really have an effect. And the Russians aren't willing to put up with soviet-style hardship these days. But potentially this could go on for years, decades even.

In the meantime, Ukraine gradually empties and misery for 41m +....gawd, can't see any alternative that doesn't involve catastrophe.

[Sandydragon]

The shelling of a nuclear power plant is idiotic and inarguably a war crime.

FTFY

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/ihl/WebART/470-750071

I was giving benefit of the doubt to the fact that it could have been accidental. But seeing some video images suggests that it was a number of shells that hit. Targeting utilities wants is a no-no in itself, even before you start to consider proportionality or the potential lack of military targets.

[Sandydragon]

So what's the next move? Pretty clear that nothing done so far is going to stop him. Even if we think he'll get toppled in the mid-term, in the short term, Ukraine and its people will be devastated.

Add it to the list.

And yes, these things take time, and he's essentially untouchable whilst he's in power (and will probably be dead before he has a chance to reach the Hague when he's out of power).
What can we do? Is getting involved (which would still take time to do - though hopefully less time than it would have taken 2 weeks ago) worth the risk nuclear war between Russia and NATO?

I don't have any answers.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... on-ukraine

ICC launches war crimes investigation over Russian invasion of Ukraine


International criminal court inquiry has been expedited by unprecedented number of countries backing move

A war crimes investigation has been launched into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine after an unprecedented number of countries backed the move and Boris Johnson called the military intervention “abhorrent”.

Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor for the international criminal court (ICC), said he would begin work “as rapidly as possible” to look for possible crimes against humanity or genocide committed in Ukraine.

The referral for investigation by 39 countries – including the UK – will shave several months off the process because it allows Khan to bypass the need to seek the approval of the court in The Hague.

ARTICLE CONTINUES...

In the absence of a real-life James Bond, assassination from without is... a touch unrealistic.
Given his complete control of Russian media, what I understand is access to all Russian social media, the locking up protestors, and the new (?) Russian treason laws - a 1917 style revolution from within is... a touch unrealistic.
Which leaves us two options - a palace coup, which "we" in the West might be able to influence
Being taken to see the Moskva river by the Praetorian Guard, which "we" in the West probably can't do much about

The solution to getting rid of Putin must come from within Russia. His control over the state media means that the Russian populace isn't getting good information. I'd be looking at ways that we can reach out to and influence that population and get them some facts. The internet is one means but that's (from my understanding) just going to influence the younger generation. Some covert radio stations could be useful. Hacking the state Russian media could have an impact. Lots of psyops opportunities there, especially with propaganda gifts like firing at a nuclear power plant.

Not a quick response but it might increase the number of protestors.

I think we can rule out direct military action, unless it looks like we have nothing to lose, i.e. Putin ups the ante by going nuclear.

[Puja]

This is just nightmarish: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487

We think we've got it bad with people brainwashed by the Daily Mail, but at least there is an ability to get an opposing viewpoint here. It's a completely alternative reality over there, with the only news channels willing to report anything but the Kremlin's fiction of "military targets only, just helping the Donbas, removing the unpopular Nazis and welcomed by the Ukranian people" having just been permanently closed.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

This is just nightmarish: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487

We think we've got it bad with people brainwashed by the Daily Mail, but at least there is an ability to get an opposing viewpoint here. It's a completely alternative reality over there, with the only news channels willing to report anything but the Kremlin's fiction of "military targets only, just helping the Donbas, removing the unpopular Nazis and welcomed by the Ukranian people" having just been permanently closed.

Puja

There used to be posters on here who thought RT was far more accurate than the BBC. Putin has learnt the lessons of the Cold War well, or at least the ones regarding propaganda.

[Son of Mathonwy]

This is just nightmarish: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487

We think we've got it bad with people brainwashed by the Daily Mail, but at least there is an ability to get an opposing viewpoint here. It's a completely alternative reality over there, with the only news channels willing to report anything but the Kremlin's fiction of "military targets only, just helping the Donbas, removing the unpopular Nazis and welcomed by the Ukranian people" having just been permanently closed.

Puja

Those reports are eerily similar to my attempts to explain to my parents that Brexit might have negative consequences. The Mail can brainwash with the best of them.

[Which Tyler]

Just to highlight...
Switzerland: 371
United Kingdom: 16