COVID19

[morepork]

Get back to me in two weeks

[Galfon]

Just needs 1 bad apple - the Güterslohers now face 'lock-down light' due to one slopmeister's unscrupulousness.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... 9-outbreak..

Different to Anglostyle merry-making of course

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-53193372

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... e-53191406

[Which Tyler]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/2 ... udy-336452

The White House directed the National Institutes of Health to cancel funding for a project studying how coronaviruses spread from bats to people, the government's top infectious disease expert said Tuesday.

“Why was it canceled? It was canceled because the NIH was told to cancel it," said Anthony Fauci, director of the NIH's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in response to a question during a House Energy & Commerce Hearing. "I don’t know the reason, but we were told to cancel it.”

ARTICLE CONTINUES

[Son of Mathonwy]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/2 ... udy-336452

The White House directed the National Institutes of Health to cancel funding for a project studying how coronaviruses spread from bats to people, the government's top infectious disease expert said Tuesday.

“Why was it canceled? It was canceled because the NIH was told to cancel it," said Anthony Fauci, director of the NIH's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in response to a question during a House Energy & Commerce Hearing. "I don’t know the reason, but we were told to cancel it.”

ARTICLE CONTINUES

Because knowing how coronaviruses cross from bats to humans couldn't possibly be of benefit.

[Which Tyler]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/2 ... udy-336452

The White House directed the National Institutes of Health to cancel funding for a project studying how coronaviruses spread from bats to people, the government's top infectious disease expert said Tuesday.

“Why was it canceled? It was canceled because the NIH was told to cancel it," said Anthony Fauci, director of the NIH's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in response to a question during a House Energy & Commerce Hearing. "I don’t know the reason, but we were told to cancel it.”

ARTICLE CONTINUES

Because knowing how coronaviruses cross from bats to humans couldn't possibly be of benefit.

To be "fair" the Whitehouse is trying to build the narrative that it didn't cross from bats, but from a lab. They kinda have to defund anything that might produce evidence to the contrary.

Well, normally; "evidence to the contrary" has never stopped Trump before.

[Which Tyler]

New ONS numbers up to 12 Jun are out, so as of that date we have:
Positive test UK Covid-19 deaths: 41,581
All UK Covid-19 deaths (ONS number): 53,009
So the total UK number is 27% higher than the government number.

Excess deaths compared with 5 year average to 12 Jun: 64,938
which is 56% higher than the government number.

I won't bother with extrapolating the numbers to give estimates as of today. Add 1-2k to each of the above and that won't be far off.

Sorry, I've been tracking these as well, and looking at them properly today for the first time in a little while.
Could I ask your source please? What I've got slightly disagrees with yours; mine are from: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 12june2020

I get:
All UK Covid-19 deaths (ONS number): 48,218
Excess deaths compared with 5 year average to 12 Jun: 45,363

ETA: Of course, yours are probably UK, mine are just England and Wales - dammit!
I'd still like your source for those figures, so that I can do mine for the whole of the UK, not just E&W - thank you


Incidentally, the reason I was having a look was to compare Covid to the other big killers in the UK, sourced from here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... sofdeathuk

Leading causes of death; 5-year average (2014-2018) for England & Wales (all genders, all ages):
62,633 - Dementia and Alzheimer disease (F01,F03,G30)
58,360 - Ischaemic heart diseases (I20-I25)
32,858 - Cerebrovascular diseases (I60-I69)
31,310 - Chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40-J47)
30,294 - Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung (C33-C34)
27,955 - Influenza and pneumonia (J09-J18)
1 Quarter of 2020 (March 14th to June 12th)
48,213 - COVID-19 (U07.1 and U07.2)
11,111 - Other Excess Deaths compared to 5-year average

[Son of Mathonwy]

New ONS numbers up to 12 Jun are out, so as of that date we have:
Positive test UK Covid-19 deaths: 41,581
All UK Covid-19 deaths (ONS number): 53,009
So the total UK number is 27% higher than the government number.

Excess deaths compared with 5 year average to 12 Jun: 64,938
which is 56% higher than the government number.

I won't bother with extrapolating the numbers to give estimates as of today. Add 1-2k to each of the above and that won't be far off.

Sorry, I've been tracking these as well, and looking at them properly today for the first time in a little while.
Could I ask your source please? What I've got slightly disagrees with yours; mine are from: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 12june2020

I get:
All UK Covid-19 deaths (ONS number): 48,218
Excess deaths compared with 5 year average to 12 Jun: 45,363

ETA: Of course, yours are probably UK, mine are just England and Wales - dammit!
I'd still like your source for those figures, so that I can do mine for the whole of the UK, not just E&W - thank you


Incidentally, the reason I was having a look was to compare Covid to the other big killers in the UK, sourced from here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... sofdeathuk

Leading causes of death; 5-year average (2014-2018) for England & Wales (all genders, all ages):
62,633 - Dementia and Alzheimer disease (F01,F03,G30)
58,360 - Ischaemic heart diseases (I20-I25)
32,858 - Cerebrovascular diseases (I60-I69)
31,310 - Chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40-J47)
30,294 - Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung (C33-C34)
27,955 - Influenza and pneumonia (J09-J18)
1 Quarter of 2020 (March 14th to June 12th)
48,213 - COVID-19 (U07.1 and U07.2)
11,111 - Other Excess Deaths compared to 5-year average

No problem. My figures combine England+Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. So they're really "ONS plus Scotland plus NI". The sources are:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ndandwales
https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats
https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths

I start 2020 vs previous 5-year average in the first week a covid-19 death occurred in the UK, which is the week ending 13 March in the Eng+Wal and NI figures and the week beginning 9 March on the Scot figures. (I appreciate that the Scottish week ends on a Sunday, the others on a Friday, so the overall UK weekly total isn't exactly right, but that's the data we have.) So that's 14 weeks up to 12 June.

[Galfon]

Could be posted on any of about 5 freds...where have they been ?? ...

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Whilst I generally don't like using cases because it's such a function of the testing regime I understand that the increase is disproportionate to the increases in testing. They're fucked. Fascinating that some of the states in three North East are trying to quarantine visitors from other states.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Could be posted on any of about 5 freds...where have they been ?? ...

Also (on a bit of a tangent), that's Texas in late June.

Suggests that Covid-19 isn't particularly interested in being a seasonal thing.

(although its impact in Iran, India, Brazil and Mexico are also pretty strong pointers in this direction.)

[morepork]

Whilst I generally don't like using cases because it's such a function of the testing regime I understand that the increase is disproportionate to the increases in testing. They're fucked. Fascinating that some of the states in three North East are trying to quarantine visitors from other states.

That should have been the norm nationwide from the get-go.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Whilst I generally don't like using cases because it's such a function of the testing regime I understand that the increase is disproportionate to the increases in testing. They're fucked. Fascinating that some of the states in three North East are trying to quarantine visitors from other states.

That should have been the norm nationwide from the get-go.

I'm not entirely sure it's constitutional. I think someone (Gretchen Whitmer?) had a go early on them backed down.

[Galfon]

Suggests that Covid-19 isn't particularly interested in being a seasonal thing.

True, it appears to be only mildly seasonal - certainly as summer arrived northward from Spa, Ita, Fra & UK cases in these parts dropped sharply alongside some level of control & modified behaviours. It hasn't disappeared like the Flu (about 2x transmittance, still near zippo immunity..5% ish i think ) and it running amok in refridgerated processing plants highlights how critical the race for a vaccine could be...for this year's Oktoberfest, we need beer not fear.

[Puja]

Could be posted on any of about 5 freds...where have they been ?? ...

Bloody millennials.

Puja

[Eugene Wrayburn]

It might yet be seasonal. We don't know how bad things can get.

[morepork]

Bad enough to show that a new health system is needed. How anyone could defend this one is beyond me. The governments refusal to centralise a response and step in and regulate some emergency costs has seen instances of insurance companies charging thousands of dollars for a single diagnostic test. There will be millions of people burdened with a lifetime of debt from medical bills for years, if not a lifetime thanks to this pigs anus of a system.

[Mikey Brown]

Bad enough to show that a new health system is needed. How anyone could defend this one is beyond me. The governments refusal to centralise a response and step in and regulate some emergency costs has seen instances of insurance companies charging thousands of dollars for a single diagnostic test. There will be millions of people burdened with a lifetime of debt from medical bills for years, if not a lifetime thanks to this pigs anus of a system.

Burdened with a lifetime of debt? Or proudly fulfilling their patriotic duty with a lifetime worth of contributions (if not more) to the economy? Who’s to say which is the correct interpretation.

[morepork]

Bad enough to show that a new health system is needed. How anyone could defend this one is beyond me. The governments refusal to centralise a response and step in and regulate some emergency costs has seen instances of insurance companies charging thousands of dollars for a single diagnostic test. There will be millions of people burdened with a lifetime of debt from medical bills for years, if not a lifetime thanks to this pigs anus of a system.

Burdened with a lifetime of debt? Or proudly fulfilling their patriotic duty with a lifetime
worth of contributions (if not more) to the
economy? Who’s to say which is the correct interpretation.

Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit Brown. If patriotism means fealty to insurance companies, then we should be sweet.

[Digby]

I can accept the UK government mayn't have had plans specific for Leicester ready to use, but how did they get communication around shutting down a locality so fucked up? We've never been brilliant on messaging around Covid but we shat the bed over Agent Cummings and Goings and never recovered to a basic level such you might get a C in a GCSE, surely they must have had plans in place for this?

[Puja]

I can accept the UK government mayn't have had plans specific for Leicester ready to use, but how did they get communication around shutting down a locality so fucked up? We've never been brilliant on messaging around Covid but we shat the bed over Agent Cummings and Goings and never recovered to a basic level such you might get a C in a GCSE, surely they must have had plans in place for this?

HAH! This government having a plan! You card, Digby!

Puja

[Digby]

I can accept the UK government mayn't have had plans specific for Leicester ready to use, but how did they get communication around shutting down a locality so fucked up? We've never been brilliant on messaging around Covid but we shat the bed over Agent Cummings and Goings and never recovered to a basic level such you might get a C in a GCSE, surely they must have had plans in place for this?

HAH! This government having a plan! You card, Digby!

Puja

They had a plan, or at least had taken advice on how to handle messaging around the pandemic. Okay they pissed it up the wall over Dominic but still, it was there. And I'm sure somebody must have discussed local lockdowns, so are they being so vague because again they don't really want to pay for lockdown but they also want plausible deniability if anything goes wrong? I know 3 people who have open questions to their local MPs about whether they can/should be travelling to work in Leicester, or travelling from Leicester (well surrounding area) to work, and I've heard plenty of local businesses say they have no idea what's happening and don't know where to ask or when to expect an answer

As is it seems like some people will respond to the local lockdown and struggle on the finance front because of it, and that will perhaps reduce the R rate enough, whilst some selfish wankers will carry on and piggyback that others are taking a hit. Which is in line with many other Tory policies I suppose

[Donny osmond]

Interesting comment. The only source linked on the twitter thread is this from the BBC, so I can't say where he's got the figures for that graph from.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-53233974







Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

[morepork]

You should be focusing on the fact that community transmission was allowed to take hold in the absence of lockdown. Countries that initiated an early lockdown are way ahead of the curve, and this has to be acknowledged. It is in fact the primary lesson in this social experiment. If you want to debate the merits of lockdown after community transmission, fine, but do a favour to the data and acknowledge the prescience of minimizing person to person early in the piece rather than comparing the relative rates of avoidable death after the event. Everyone with a passing familiarity of viruses made this point months ago.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Interesting comment. The only source linked on the twitter thread is this from the BBC, so I can't say where he's got the figures for that graph from.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-53233974

How does Sweden compare with its direct neighbours Denmark, Norway and Finland then?
A completely different story.

The Sweden vs Scotland comparison is light measures vs a belated & botched lockdown with late testing, very late contact tracing and no border controls.

The Sweden vs other Scandi countries is light measures vs lockdown.

[Son of Mathonwy]

New ONS numbers up to 19 Jun are out, so as of that date we have:
Positive test UK Covid-19 deaths: 42,568
All UK Covid-19 deaths (ONS number): 53,858
So the total UK number is 27% higher than the government number.

Excess deaths compared with 5 year average to 19 Jun: 64,917
which is 53% higher than the government number.

As has been reported, the excess deaths number is essentially unchanged from the previous week despite there being 849 confirmed Covid-19 deaths. Offsetting the covid deaths might be the upside from partial lockdown, eg less traffic accidents, less non-covid infectious disease deaths etc. NB before the pandemic hit the excess deaths had been running below the 5-year average.