COVID19

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morepork
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Re: COVID19

Post by morepork »

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:Whilst I generally don't like using cases because it's such a function of the testing regime I understand that the increase is disproportionate to the increases in testing. They're fucked. Fascinating that some of the states in three North East are trying to quarantine visitors from other states.

That should have been the norm nationwide from the get-go.
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Eugene Wrayburn
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Re: COVID19

Post by Eugene Wrayburn »

morepork wrote:
Eugene Wrayburn wrote:Whilst I generally don't like using cases because it's such a function of the testing regime I understand that the increase is disproportionate to the increases in testing. They're fucked. Fascinating that some of the states in three North East are trying to quarantine visitors from other states.

That should have been the norm nationwide from the get-go.
I'm not entirely sure it's constitutional. I think someone (Gretchen Whitmer?) had a go early on them backed down.
I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed person.

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Galfon
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Re: COVID19

Post by Galfon »

Son of Mathonwy wrote: Suggests that Covid-19 isn't particularly interested in being a seasonal thing.
True, it appears to be only mildly seasonal - certainly as summer arrived northward from Spa, Ita, Fra & UK cases in these parts dropped sharply alongside some level of control & modified behaviours. It hasn't disappeared like the Flu (about 2x transmittance, still near zippo immunity..5% ish i think ) and it running amok in refridgerated processing plants highlights how critical the race for a vaccine could be...for this year's Oktoberfest, we need beer not fear. :|
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Puja
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Re: COVID19

Post by Puja »

Galfon wrote:Could be posted on any of about 5 freds...where have they been ?? ... :shock:

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Bloody millennials.

Puja
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Eugene Wrayburn
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Re: COVID19

Post by Eugene Wrayburn »

It might yet be seasonal. We don't know how bad things can get.
I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed person.

NS. Gone but not forgotten.
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morepork
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Re: COVID19

Post by morepork »

Bad enough to show that a new health system is needed. How anyone could defend this one is beyond me. The governments refusal to centralise a response and step in and regulate some emergency costs has seen instances of insurance companies charging thousands of dollars for a single diagnostic test. There will be millions of people burdened with a lifetime of debt from medical bills for years, if not a lifetime thanks to this pigs anus of a system.
Mikey Brown
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Re: COVID19

Post by Mikey Brown »

morepork wrote:Bad enough to show that a new health system is needed. How anyone could defend this one is beyond me. The governments refusal to centralise a response and step in and regulate some emergency costs has seen instances of insurance companies charging thousands of dollars for a single diagnostic test. There will be millions of people burdened with a lifetime of debt from medical bills for years, if not a lifetime thanks to this pigs anus of a system.
Burdened with a lifetime of debt? Or proudly fulfilling their patriotic duty with a lifetime worth of contributions (if not more) to the economy? Who’s to say which is the correct interpretation.
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morepork
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Re: COVID19

Post by morepork »

Mikey Brown wrote:
morepork wrote:Bad enough to show that a new health system is needed. How anyone could defend this one is beyond me. The governments refusal to centralise a response and step in and regulate some emergency costs has seen instances of insurance companies charging thousands of dollars for a single diagnostic test. There will be millions of people burdened with a lifetime of debt from medical bills for years, if not a lifetime thanks to this pigs anus of a system.
Burdened with a lifetime of debt? Or proudly fulfilling their patriotic duty with a lifetime
worth of contributions (if not more) to the
economy? Who’s to say which is the correct interpretation.
Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit Brown. If patriotism means fealty to insurance companies, then we should be sweet.
Digby
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Re: COVID19

Post by Digby »

I can accept the UK government mayn't have had plans specific for Leicester ready to use, but how did they get communication around shutting down a locality so fucked up? We've never been brilliant on messaging around Covid but we shat the bed over Agent Cummings and Goings and never recovered to a basic level such you might get a C in a GCSE, surely they must have had plans in place for this?
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Puja
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Re: COVID19

Post by Puja »

Digby wrote:I can accept the UK government mayn't have had plans specific for Leicester ready to use, but how did they get communication around shutting down a locality so fucked up? We've never been brilliant on messaging around Covid but we shat the bed over Agent Cummings and Goings and never recovered to a basic level such you might get a C in a GCSE, surely they must have had plans in place for this?
HAH! This government having a plan! You card, Digby!

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Digby
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Re: COVID19

Post by Digby »

Puja wrote:
Digby wrote:I can accept the UK government mayn't have had plans specific for Leicester ready to use, but how did they get communication around shutting down a locality so fucked up? We've never been brilliant on messaging around Covid but we shat the bed over Agent Cummings and Goings and never recovered to a basic level such you might get a C in a GCSE, surely they must have had plans in place for this?
HAH! This government having a plan! You card, Digby!

Puja
They had a plan, or at least had taken advice on how to handle messaging around the pandemic. Okay they pissed it up the wall over Dominic but still, it was there. And I'm sure somebody must have discussed local lockdowns, so are they being so vague because again they don't really want to pay for lockdown but they also want plausible deniability if anything goes wrong? I know 3 people who have open questions to their local MPs about whether they can/should be travelling to work in Leicester, or travelling from Leicester (well surrounding area) to work, and I've heard plenty of local businesses say they have no idea what's happening and don't know where to ask or when to expect an answer

As is it seems like some people will respond to the local lockdown and struggle on the finance front because of it, and that will perhaps reduce the R rate enough, whilst some selfish wankers will carry on and piggyback that others are taking a hit. Which is in line with many other Tory policies I suppose
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Donny osmond
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Re: COVID19

Post by Donny osmond »

Interesting comment. The only source linked on the twitter thread is this from the BBC, so I can't say where he's got the figures for that graph from.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-53233974





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It was so much easier to blame Them. It was bleakly depressing to think They were Us. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.
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morepork
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Re: COVID19

Post by morepork »

You should be focusing on the fact that community transmission was allowed to take hold in the absence of lockdown. Countries that initiated an early lockdown are way ahead of the curve, and this has to be acknowledged. It is in fact the primary lesson in this social experiment. If you want to debate the merits of lockdown after community transmission, fine, but do a favour to the data and acknowledge the prescience of minimizing person to person early in the piece rather than comparing the relative rates of avoidable death after the event. Everyone with a passing familiarity of viruses made this point months ago.
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Son of Mathonwy
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Re: COVID19

Post by Son of Mathonwy »

Donny osmond wrote:Interesting comment. The only source linked on the twitter thread is this from the BBC, so I can't say where he's got the figures for that graph from.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-53233974
How does Sweden compare with its direct neighbours Denmark, Norway and Finland then?
A completely different story.

The Sweden vs Scotland comparison is light measures vs a belated & botched lockdown with late testing, very late contact tracing and no border controls.

The Sweden vs other Scandi countries is light measures vs lockdown.
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Son of Mathonwy
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Re: COVID19

Post by Son of Mathonwy »

New ONS numbers up to 19 Jun are out, so as of that date we have:
Positive test UK Covid-19 deaths: 42,568
All UK Covid-19 deaths (ONS number): 53,858
So the total UK number is 27% higher than the government number.

Excess deaths compared with 5 year average to 19 Jun: 64,917
which is 53% higher than the government number.

As has been reported, the excess deaths number is essentially unchanged from the previous week despite there being 849 confirmed Covid-19 deaths. Offsetting the covid deaths might be the upside from partial lockdown, eg less traffic accidents, less non-covid infectious disease deaths etc. NB before the pandemic hit the excess deaths had been running below the 5-year average.
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Which Tyler
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Re: COVID19

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Startling stuff in this FT piece regarding the lack of data distilled down to a local level (text copied from elsewhere as it's behind a paywall)
https://www.ft.com/content/301c847c-a31 ... 66933d423a
The ability of local leaders to manage new coronavirus outbreaks in the UK is being hampered by gaps in the reporting of infection data for cities and regions, according to analysis by the Financial Times.

The government publishes a UK-wide figure for Covid-19 cases every day that includes tests from hospitals and those processed by commercial laboratories, including samples taken at home. But at a subnational level the total of new daily cases contains only hospital tests. The result is that hundreds of local authorities across the country are unable to see a timely picture of what is happening in their communities or compare that with other cities and regions of the UK.

This gap in the subnational and regional data has been cited by local political leaders and health officials in Leicester as one reason for a delay in locking down the east Midlands city, where virus cases have spiked. “For weeks we have been trying to get information about the level of testing in the city and the results of that testing in the city,” Peter Soulsby, mayor of Leicester, told the BBC on Tuesday. According to published data for Leicester, the city recorded just 80 new positive tests between June 13-26. But health secretary Matt Hancock revealed that there were in fact 944 as he announced the decision to tighten the lockdown in Leicester, closing non-essential shops and ordering schools to shut to all non-key worker pupils by Thursday.

Public Health England publishes a weekly breakdown of the two categories: tests from hospitals, known as pillar 1, and from commercial labs that process at-home and drive-through tests, known as pillar 2. While PHE releases full data for England’s nine main regions with a two-week delay, the areas are too big to give local authorities a useful picture of the situation in their communities.

Leicester city council’s public health department only received the elevated infection numbers cited by Mr Hancock last Thursday. They could not compare with places elsewhere because the so-called pillar 2 figures are only made available to officials in their own local authority area if they have signed the Data Protection Act. “I would wish that they had shared that [data] with us right from the start,” said Sir Peter, Leicester’s mayor. “And I wish they had taken a more speedy decision rather than leaving it 11 days. That's a long gap and a long time for the virus to spread.”
This is a thoroughly ridiculous way to manage a public health crisis and it boggles my mind at the lack of shared data and shared decision making going on here.
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Which Tyler
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Re: COVID19

Post by Which Tyler »

So the 2-3 week delay between infections happening, and being caught on test is now showing up the results of the last round of easing
https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... -in-a-week
Suspected Covid-19 outbreaks in English workplaces double in a week

Spread of virus in workplaces is trending up while transmission in most other settings declines.

Suspected outbreaks of Covid-19 in workplaces in England almost doubled in the past week, prompting concern as more people return to their jobs.

Public Health England (PHE) said 43 acute respiratory outbreaks were reported in workplaces in the week ending 28 June, up from 22 in the previous week.

The data shows the spread of the virus in workplaces is trending up while transmission in most other settings is in decline. Workplaces are now the only location where the spread of the virus is clearly on the increase.

Low-paid, manual workers, face a much greater risk of dying from coronavirus than higher-paid, white-collar workers. Security guards, care workers, construction workers, plant operatives, cleaners, taxi drivers, bus drivers, chefs and retail workers are all at a greater risk of dying, according to analysis of Covid-19 fatalities from the Office for National Statistics.

What better timing to open pubs? - where you can drink whilst wearing a mask, drunks are famous for respecting your personal space, and anybody who've ever been in a pub Gents' can agree that hand hygiene is of utmost importance. Of course, no-one working in pubs could be considered "low paid" and therefore liable to see a greater risk of death either.

Oh, and let's combine that with a message that tells us that social distancing isn't even important anymore - or at least, that the lives it saves are less important than the finances of Vote Leave donors.
fivepointer
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Re: COVID19

Post by fivepointer »

Which Tyler wrote:



Startling stuff in this FT piece regarding the lack of data distilled down to a local level (text copied from elsewhere as it's behind a paywall)
https://www.ft.com/content/301c847c-a31 ... 66933d423a
The ability of local leaders to manage new coronavirus outbreaks in the UK is being hampered by gaps in the reporting of infection data for cities and regions, according to analysis by the Financial Times.

The government publishes a UK-wide figure for Covid-19 cases every day that includes tests from hospitals and those processed by commercial laboratories, including samples taken at home. But at a subnational level the total of new daily cases contains only hospital tests. The result is that hundreds of local authorities across the country are unable to see a timely picture of what is happening in their communities or compare that with other cities and regions of the UK.

This gap in the subnational and regional data has been cited by local political leaders and health officials in Leicester as one reason for a delay in locking down the east Midlands city, where virus cases have spiked. “For weeks we have been trying to get information about the level of testing in the city and the results of that testing in the city,” Peter Soulsby, mayor of Leicester, told the BBC on Tuesday. According to published data for Leicester, the city recorded just 80 new positive tests between June 13-26. But health secretary Matt Hancock revealed that there were in fact 944 as he announced the decision to tighten the lockdown in Leicester, closing non-essential shops and ordering schools to shut to all non-key worker pupils by Thursday.

Public Health England publishes a weekly breakdown of the two categories: tests from hospitals, known as pillar 1, and from commercial labs that process at-home and drive-through tests, known as pillar 2. While PHE releases full data for England’s nine main regions with a two-week delay, the areas are too big to give local authorities a useful picture of the situation in their communities.

Leicester city council’s public health department only received the elevated infection numbers cited by Mr Hancock last Thursday. They could not compare with places elsewhere because the so-called pillar 2 figures are only made available to officials in their own local authority area if they have signed the Data Protection Act. “I would wish that they had shared that [data] with us right from the start,” said Sir Peter, Leicester’s mayor. “And I wish they had taken a more speedy decision rather than leaving it 11 days. That's a long gap and a long time for the virus to spread.”
This is a thoroughly ridiculous way to manage a public health crisis and it boggles my mind at the lack of shared data and shared decision making going on here.
The whole thing is shamefully amateurish.

Worse, it borders on the criminally negligent.

We deserve better than this.
Digby
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Re: COVID19

Post by Digby »

fivepointer wrote:
We deserve better than this.
We voted them in, and they didn't exactly look a competent bunch when we did so. So pretty much we've done it to ourselves
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Galfon
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Re: COVID19

Post by Galfon »

'Super Saturday' (*) ?..Police leave has been cancelled, so we can stay safe. :|
(* maybe for billy brewer, larry landlord, tommy taxman...
vinny virus et al.. )
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canta_brian
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Re: COVID19

Post by canta_brian »

Galfon wrote:'Super Saturday' (*) ?..Police leave has been cancelled, so we can stay safe. :|
(* maybe for billy brewer, larry landlord, tommy taxman...
vinny virus et al.. )
Well, if we all exercise judgement and common sense none of those mentioned about will be making much money over the weekend. And that’s likely to be the case ..... isn’t it?
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morepork
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Re: COVID19

Post by morepork »

Get ready for shit like this:




" The state of Arizona has seen an incredible rise in the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations recently, forcing the state to pause its reopening. And now one bar is under investigation after it allegedly allowed multiple employees known to have tested positive for the coronavirus to continue working.

Varsity Tavern, located in downtown Tempe, allegedly permitted both employees and managers to continue working after being diagnosed, according to the State of Arizona Department of Liquor Licenses and Control.

After the state agency began its investigation, the business decided to close on July 1.

Officials are still seeking to revoke Varsity Tavern's license. The establishment has had its license suspended twice before, once in December 2018 and again in July 2019.

The Department of Liquor also alleges that the bar management knowingly didn't notify health officials that workers tested positive, didn't enforce social distancing requirements and didn't enforce mask-wearing requirements
."
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Stom
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Re: COVID19

Post by Stom »

We're expecting a 2nd wave any minute now here.

Just in time for the summer holiday season, Hungary's favourite beach spot opened up for business, with Croatia opening their borders to Hungarians. Half the country have left already and then....

boom, Croatia has a massive spike in cases.

Let's fast forward a month, and all those Hungarians exposed on Croatian beaches will be coming home with the virus.


BTW: my wife and I are certain we've had it. It turned out my son's nursery teacher visited Northern Italy just before everything broke. She bought it back, we all got ill with fever prior to the lockdown, and then after lockdown I tried to get back into exercise...just to find myself out of puff a lot earlier than I'd have expected. I thought I was just unfit, but now I'm pretty sure it was the left overs from the virus.
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morepork
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Re: COVID19

Post by morepork »

Do you have antibodies?
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Stom
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Re: COVID19

Post by Stom »

morepork wrote:Do you have antibodies?
Haven’t been tested. Is there any point if we had it back in feb?
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