Page 2 of 2

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2019 11:06 am
by Stom
Digby wrote:
Stom wrote:
Digby wrote:
Having read the whole question though, and not just does a complete possession end in points, I'm not sure what they're getting at by placing without errors in brackets. I suspect the without errors is a note about what constitutes a complete possession and has made it into the review Mells posted itself in error, because by its nature a complete possession cannot end with an error by the team in possession. So I think it's a negative comment that's been included as a positive one by someone who doesn't know rugby and has just seized on that stat thinking the without errors meant something good. Looking at the source this could well come from Ross Hamilton originally before some rugby ignorant media bunny went to work on it and Mell just posted it here without a by-your-leave, if anyone is on Twitter feel free to ask him, Ross not Mells, he'd know what it's meant to mean I suspect

If it is a positive comment I'm either not bright enough or haven't had enough cups of tea, probably both, to follow through the logic of why that particular claim is a positive
Why?

It's 2 stats in 1. They have the most ball, and they choose what to do with that ball the most often out of all the teams.

We're not looking for "positive or negative" here, we're looking for stats that show how the team plays.

This one does.

Sarries like to control how the game is played and where. So they keep possession and when it's not on, kick it away.
Eh? if you don't complete a possession you're not choosing what to do with it. Incomplete possessions are where you lose the ball via a penalty/freekick, get turned over, get forced into touch...

Am I missing the obvious?
Yes, you are. It says complete possession :p

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2019 11:18 am
by Digby
Stom wrote:
Digby wrote:
Stom wrote:
Why?

It's 2 stats in 1. They have the most ball, and they choose what to do with that ball the most often out of all the teams.

We're not looking for "positive or negative" here, we're looking for stats that show how the team plays.

This one does.

Sarries like to control how the game is played and where. So they keep possession and when it's not on, kick it away.
Eh? if you don't complete a possession you're not choosing what to do with it. Incomplete possessions are where you lose the ball via a penalty/freekick, get turned over, get forced into touch...

Am I missing the obvious?
Yes, you are. It says complete possession :p
It actually says fewest complete possessions.

Are we even in agreement on what a complete possession is though?

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:38 pm
by Stom
Digby wrote:
Stom wrote:
Digby wrote:
Eh? if you don't complete a possession you're not choosing what to do with it. Incomplete possessions are where you lose the ball via a penalty/freekick, get turned over, get forced into touch...

Am I missing the obvious?
Yes, you are. It says complete possession :p
It actually says fewest complete possessions.

Are we even in agreement on what a complete possession is though?
Ah, ok, we're looking at different teams :p

Sarries says Most possession and most complete possessions.

Wasps says Least complete possessions.

I think that says that Sarries simply keep it tight, while Wasps try to be more adventurous, tbh.

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:54 pm
by Digby
Happy days. Raggs, or Rages, had/has a query on what they meant in the comment on Wasps. Which for myself I'm failing to address as it doesn't make a lot of sense to me

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:00 pm
by Renniks
Digby wrote:
Stom wrote:
Digby wrote:
Having read the whole question though, and not just does a complete possession end in points, I'm not sure what they're getting at by placing without errors in brackets. I suspect the without errors is a note about what constitutes a complete possession and has made it into the review Mells posted itself in error, because by its nature a complete possession cannot end with an error by the team in possession. So I think it's a negative comment that's been included as a positive one by someone who doesn't know rugby and has just seized on that stat thinking the without errors meant something good. Looking at the source this could well come from Ross Hamilton originally before some rugby ignorant media bunny went to work on it and Mell just posted it here without a by-your-leave, if anyone is on Twitter feel free to ask him, Ross not Mells, he'd know what it's meant to mean I suspect

If it is a positive comment I'm either not bright enough or haven't had enough cups of tea, probably both, to follow through the logic of why that particular claim is a positive
Why?

It's 2 stats in 1. They have the most ball, and they choose what to do with that ball the most often out of all the teams.

We're not looking for "positive or negative" here, we're looking for stats that show how the team plays.

This one does.

Sarries like to control how the game is played and where. So they keep possession and when it's not on, kick it away.
Eh? if you don't complete a possession you're not choosing what to do with it. Incomplete possessions are where you lose the ball via a penalty/freekick, get turned over, get forced into touch...

Am I missing the obvious?
That if you are no longer in possession you have completed your possession
But sometimes thats because you fuck up (with errors) and sometimes because you do what you wanted (without errors)

My concern is that it has no representation of whether the choice to do what you wanted was a good choice…

Jonathan Davies completed their possession without errors back in 2017, but he didn't hit touch, and we scored straight off of it… You could argue that it's an error as he was aiming for touch - but we don't know that (we can't, we're not mind readers) - so I bet it would be counted as a 'without errors' stat - as he kicked it away without dropping it, being dragged into touch, giving away a penalty or being charged down (etc)

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:12 pm
by Mellsblue
Wish I hadn’t posted it.

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:58 pm
by Digby
Renniks wrote:
Digby wrote:
Stom wrote:
Why?

It's 2 stats in 1. They have the most ball, and they choose what to do with that ball the most often out of all the teams.

We're not looking for "positive or negative" here, we're looking for stats that show how the team plays.

This one does.

Sarries like to control how the game is played and where. So they keep possession and when it's not on, kick it away.
Eh? if you don't complete a possession you're not choosing what to do with it. Incomplete possessions are where you lose the ball via a penalty/freekick, get turned over, get forced into touch...

Am I missing the obvious?
That if you are no longer in possession you have completed your possession
But sometimes thats because you fuck up (with errors) and sometimes because you do what you wanted (without errors)

My concern is that it has no representation of whether the choice to do what you wanted was a good choice…

Jonathan Davies completed their possession without errors back in 2017, but he didn't hit touch, and we scored straight off of it… You could argue that it's an error as he was aiming for touch - but we don't know that (we can't, we're not mind readers) - so I bet it would be counted as a 'without errors' stat - as he kicked it away without dropping it, being dragged into touch, giving away a penalty or being charged down (etc)
Again I don't think that's it.

if you feck up it's not a completed possession ended with an error, its just not a complete possession. the defining feature of a complete possession is you end it on your terms. basically a complete possession isn't the same as your period in possession is completed

though there is an argument about what JD2 did, and whether that's a complete possession kicking the ball away, I sit in the camp that says yes it is, but I know some compile stats that look for a favourable outcome too when it's a kick to end possession, and if it's a bad kick they disregard adding to the complete possession tally, the heathen bastards that they are

Edit - to refine my own comment I suppose you could also make a distinction between a bad kick, and a bad outcome.

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:01 pm
by Digby
Mellsblue wrote:Wish I hadn’t posted it.

If you're not the sort of person who enjoys hours in discussion about compiling rugby stats you're more likely to be the sort of person Haskell would enjoy meeting, just sayin'

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:38 pm
by Timbo
Suspected as much. Nobody said global pandemic to end season early.

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:40 pm
by Mellsblue
We haven’t got a clue. Have we.

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:08 pm
by Puja
Nobody picked Saracens to finish a distance bottom either. Pitiful predictions.

Puja

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:03 pm
by Puja
I'd actually entirely forgotten about this with the weird old season we've had, but we probably should review our woefully-inaccurate predictions for last season before the next one starts in 2 minutes time.

Premiership Winner:
Epaminondas Pules and Switchskier were the only people to correctly pick Exeter. Everyone else picked the team who got relegated, which is spectacularly poor predicting even by our standards

Table order:
No-one even got close. Not just in terms of Saracens finishing bottom, but nobody picked any of the top 4 except for Exeter. Nobody got either of Wasps or Bristol making the top 6, let alone the top 4 and the highest prediction for Bath was 5th. Likewise, only one person predicted Worcester would finish above Leicester and nobody picked London Irish to. We suck!

European predictions - how will the English teams do?
Lots of predictions of relegation-fodder Saracens winning or getting to the final, but I think EP is closest as the only one to predict Exeter would even get to the semi-final, even if they thought that was as far as they'd get.

Top try scorer:
Kudos to fivepointer for picking one of the correct answers in Ollie Thorley (11 tries). Switchskier came very close with their selection of "Earles" however they ruined it by clarifying that they meant Nathan (0), not Ben (11). A special award (and I do mean special) for Stom and Gloskarlos who decided that Goneva was going to be top try scorer, a prediction that has aged like fine wine.

Top points scorer:
No-one picked Rhys Priestland and frankly, I don't blame us on that one, so Stom redeems themselves by picking second place man Marcus Smith.

Surprise of the season:
No-one picked a global pandemic which I find disappointing, but Mikey Brown has to win it for predicting Saracens being in a relegation battle, a comment which I'm sure they'll try and claim wasn't sarcasm and was in fact an uncanny ability to predict the futu... oh, they said Quins would win the title in the same comment. Never mind then.

Biggest disappointment:
I'll give myself and 5p a pat on the back for Youngs continuing as England's 9 despite Mitchell and Randall doing well.

Player having a breakthrough season:
I picked Mitchell, but I also picked Sleightholme which has come off less well as a prediction. Shiny picked him and didn't equivocate, which was a much better prediction.

Best signing:
Hogg was name-checked a few times and was probably the right answer. However, it's far more fun to pick on the terrible selections:
Scrumhead - Sean Long (now back in league after underwhelming)
Stom - Goneva. "Will score a shed load" {Narrator - he did not, in fact, score a shed load}
Mellsblue - Lavanini (may have broken into a run a couple of times inbetween yellow cards. Experts are unsure)

Best unheralded signing:
Scrumhead and Switchskier chose well with Minozzi - I can't think of any other unheraded signings who did as well. However, just to show I can take my lumps and well as hand them out, here are my excellent predictions for this category:
Puja wrote:I can see Josh Ibuanokpe flourishing at Saracens. They don't sign people that they don't think they can make something out of and tighthead is not a locked position there.
ETA. Changed my mind on this one too (after Ibuanokpe managed to get himself banned for 5 weeks in pre-season) - Jamal Ford-Robinson for Gloucester.
It's hard to nail down the exact worst bit of that - is it claiming that tighthead wasn't a locked position at Saracens despite it being occupied by the soon to be world cup winning Vincent Koch? Picking Ibuanokpe who couldn't make it into the Saracens first team even after the salary cap and COVID break meant both Koch and Figallo left the club? Making a good decision to change my mind and then using that reprieve to select Jamal Ford-Robinson?! There's a lot to unpack there.

The [Redacted] Award for lowest performance to hype ratio from a new signing:
Sean O'Brien was mentioned a lot of time and I don't think anyone gets any marks for that, given how screamingly obvious it was. However Scrumhead had a good pick in Owen Franks, who was far less obvious and almost as useless, and EP picked Naholo who I don't remember actually turning out for Irish.

The Jerome Schuster Award for worst signing:
Some belters in here: Nick Phipps, Paddy Jackson, Niki Goneva, but switchskier gets another ping for picking Steve Mafi, a signing of such insignificance that I had to google to see who'd actually signed him. Turns out it was Irish, which I probably could've guessed.


Overall, we were successfully awful as a collective once again, although not quite as awful as "Ibuanokpe, no - Ford-Robinson!" would suggest. It's hard looking back to such a long time ago and trying to remember what was going on back then. We thought it was hard to predict with the disruption of the RWC taking players away from the first 5 rounds of the Prem - oh we sweet summer children! We didn't know we were born!

I expect to see you all back here for the next thread in a few weeks time, where we can embarass ourselves as a group again.

Puja

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:21 pm
by Epaminondas Pules
I'm still impressed that I had Goneva as top scorer and worst signing. Sometimes my drinking scares me.

Mind I did guess....I mean confidently predict that Tigers would actually play Steward and Martin and that Barbeary would have a breakthrough. Thank you COVID!

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:26 pm
by Puja
Epaminondas Pules wrote:I'm still impressed that I had Goneva as top scorer and worst signing. Sometimes my drinking scares me.

Mind I did guess....I mean confidently predict that Tigers would actually play Steward and Martin and that Barbeary would have a breakthrough. Thank you COVID!
You did retract Goneva in the name of Piutau and blame it on a c&p error in a later post, so I let you away without being named in the Goneva try scorer shaming.

It was all so long ago that I didn't even remember Goneva signing for Quins!

Puja

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:29 pm
by Scrumhead
Thanks Puja for the amusing round-up. It sounds like we are almost universally rubbish at predictions. I’m already looking forward to the crap I’m about to come out with for 20/21.

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:33 pm
by Stom
Thanks Pooj. But I thought I'd get a mention for my Schuster award suggestion... a player who had a pretty good season all told: Chris Harris...

Jeez, my predictions were appalling this season.

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:35 pm
by Epaminondas Pules
Stom wrote:Thanks Pooj. But I thought I'd get a mention for my Schuster award suggestion... a player who had a pretty good season all told: Chris Harris...

Jeez, my predictions were appalling this season.
To be fair our collective predictions were as shit as the test and trace system, where literally one correct answer is deemed a great success.

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:40 pm
by Puja
Stom wrote:Thanks Pooj. But I thought I'd get a mention for my Schuster award suggestion... a player who had a pretty good season all told: Chris Harris...

Jeez, my predictions were appalling this season.
I'm reluctant to suggest Chris Harris is a good rugby player for fear of getting laughed at.

Puja

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:41 pm
by Stom
Puja wrote:
Stom wrote:Thanks Pooj. But I thought I'd get a mention for my Schuster award suggestion... a player who had a pretty good season all told: Chris Harris...

Jeez, my predictions were appalling this season.
I'm reluctant to suggest Chris Harris is a good rugby player for fear of getting laughed at.

Puja
Oh sure, but that didn't stop him having a good season for someone who can't play rugby...

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:42 pm
by Which Tyler
I was right to refuse to play.
It was my reasoning that was flawed

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:40 am
by Shiny
At least between this and the fantasy rugby I am consistent..........ly bad. In my defense I have only been following rugby for over 40 years so I am quite new to it.

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:52 am
by Digby
So, complete possessions sounds like a fun subject to dive into, who's with me?

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:52 am
by Stom
Digby wrote:So, complete possessions sounds like a fun subject to dive into, who's with me?
Lol

Re: Premiership Prediction Thread 2019-20

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:54 am
by Puja
Thread locked!

Puja