Banquo wrote:
If the kicker runs a bit, and especially shapes one way or another, that makes the defence think, plus you are kicking from further forward. It may be just my impression, but we do seem to kick from further back than other teams, and maybe it is thought through for the reason you state.
I wasn’t proposing simply keeping possession either, just that we could and should kick better. I’d rather counter attack when it’s on, but as you say, you have to really resource breakdowns well, as many more players are looking to compete irrespective of number on back.
I'll go with my favourite answer "it depends". Both teams set themselves up to make the same option.
Let's look at the benefits and risks and aims of each option.
1. Kicking immediately; Benefits:
a] Greater chance of catching the back 3 defence out of position (though this is squandered the more air-time you give the ball")
b] You also don't pull your own back 3 defence out of alignment - as those kicks aren't chased; so you kick, and go back to your mark.
2. Kicking immediately; Risks:
a] If you're kicking from too far back, you may not get the desired distance (landing on the opponents' 22) - quite honestly though, if you're receiving the ball that far back, you're unlikely to kick for territory anyway, the safer play is to either go for the corner, or call a mark, and set yourself properly.
Kicking immediately; Aims:
You're aiming to land the ball on the opponent's 22m line - hopefully on grass, but that virtually never happens.
There's no point aiming deeper than the 22m line (unless a corner where there's no-one at home) as you risk going too far and giving away a mark, a 22 drop-out, or a scrum back.
Bonus if the opponent spill the ball, or slice their return, or make a mistake like running it back into your set defence (set around their 5m line).
There's no point chasing the kick, as it's never going to be contestable by someone who's onside.
3. Run and kick; Benefits:
a] You have more options if the defence is asleep, and or you've got decent cover that you'll reach before taking a tackle. Whilst viewers might be falling asleep with the kicking duel, the defences have had time to align themselves as they like - especially if we've gone beyond the first pair of kicks.
4. Run and kick; Risks:
a] You're more likely to miscue the kick itself
b] If not setting a chase, then you have to retreat the same number of yards you gained immediately; before the opposition kick to where you're not longer standing.
Run and kick; Aims:
You're aiming to land the ball on the opponent's 22m line - hopefully on grass, but that virtually never happens.
There's no point aiming deeper than the 22m line (unless a corner where there's no-one at home) as you risk going too far and giving away a mark, a 22 drop-out, or a scrum back.
Gives you options to not kick if the defence opens like the red sea; but the chances are you'll be tackled inside your own half, and knocked backwards; giving your opponents the advantage at the ruck. Likely scenarios are that you knock on, or give away a kickable penalty for holding on.
NB: The above would be an aerial tennis duel. The first kick from each side is different as defences aren't set; and there's probably a non-kicking winger in the back 3 and may be no FH / 2nd 5/8.
Once you're into aerial tennis, it's stalemate until someone makes a mistake. If you feel you're better drilled than your opponent, then they're more likely to make that mistake.
