RugbyRebels

Donny osmond wrote:Everyone bizarrely ignores the economics required to join the EU, which is a large part of the focus of that link I posted. Look up the Copenhagen Criteria.

Without some special dispensation, an independent Scotland or Wales wouldn't be able to apply to join the EU without an established independent central bank that consistently demonstrates responsible practice. That in itself would take years.

Given what we've seen in the UKs trade figures this week, a whole 2 months after Brexit, spending even as little as 5 years outside both the UK and the EU would pose significant problems for Scotland's economy, with knock on effects for a membership application. That can't just be shrugged off.

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Puja wrote:

Donny osmond wrote:Everyone bizarrely ignores the economics required to join the EU, which is a large part of the focus of that link I posted. Look up the Copenhagen Criteria.

Without some special dispensation, an independent Scotland or Wales wouldn't be able to apply to join the EU without an established independent central bank that consistently demonstrates responsible practice. That in itself would take years.

Given what we've seen in the UKs trade figures this week, a whole 2 months after Brexit, spending even as little as 5 years outside both the UK and the EU would pose significant problems for Scotland's economy, with knock on effects for a membership application. That can't just be shrugged off.

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Surely that criteria wouldn't make sense for a newly independent state - they'd be asking them to set up a new central bank for the sole purpose of handing over all the policy levers to the ECB. Isn't that the whole point of economic union?

Puja

Puja wrote:

Donny osmond wrote:Everyone bizarrely ignores the economics required to join the EU, which is a large part of the focus of that link I posted. Look up the Copenhagen Criteria.

Without some special dispensation, an independent Scotland or Wales wouldn't be able to apply to join the EU without an established independent central bank that consistently demonstrates responsible practice. That in itself would take years.

Given what we've seen in the UKs trade figures this week, a whole 2 months after Brexit, spending even as little as 5 years outside both the UK and the EU would pose significant problems for Scotland's economy, with knock on effects for a membership application. That can't just be shrugged off.

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Surely that criteria wouldn't make sense for a newly independent state - they'd be asking them to set up a new central bank for the sole purpose of handing over all the policy levers to the ECB. Isn't that the whole point of economic union?

Puja

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Donny osmond wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote: Do you really think so? Surely the Euro is the only stumbling block to Scotland rejoining the EU within 5 years of independence? And IMO 5 years is the longest it would take.

Based on what?

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Scotland voted against Brexit. If they leave the UK, why would they not want to undo Brexit at the first opportunity?

Of course there are many steps to the process but they should be easily fulfilled. (Obviously, if a member decides to veto the application, Scotland can't get in, and that's it.)

NB there's no precedent for a recent former member rejoining the EU but it would clearly be easier than for any applicant accepted in the last 20 years).

(I like the way that Iceland's application process has been 'frozen' )

Digby wrote:Do they criteria say anything specific about having a central bank? For sure there's stuff in there about having institutions such you can demonstrate you can accept the rule of law, that you can function as a market economy, can you basically acquiesce to the acquis, and without a central bank and that history of managing a currency, inflation and the like there'd be a query about how you might demonstrate certain things, but are they actually that specific?

I mean they might be, but the EU would leave themselves more wriggle room if they lacked specificity, and to be specific you'd have to foresee so many more scenarios, such as what happens if a country splits from another and doesn't have its own history to present, and to what degree you might take the UK's history as in this instance Scotland's history

The criteria for countries that want to join the European Union are laid out in the Copenhagen criteria, agreed at the June 1993 European Council in Copenhagen, Denmark.

The economic criteria to be eligible to join the EU are:

the existence of a functioning market economy

the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union

To assess whether countries meet the economic criteria the European Commission monitors the following sub-criteria.

A functioning market economy requires

high quality of economic governance

macroeconomic stability (including adequate price stability as well as sustainable public finances and external accounts)

proper functioning of the goods and services market (including business environment, state influence on product markets, and privatisation and restructuring)

proper functioning of the financial market (including financial stability and access to finance)

proper functioning of the labour market

Being competitive in the EU requires

a sufficient amount of human capital, education, research, innovation, and future developments in this field

a sufficient amount and quality of physical capital and infrastructure

changes in the sector and enterprise structure in the economy, including the role of SMEs

a sufficient degree and pace of economic integration with the Union, and price competitiveness

Donny osmond wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Donny osmond wrote:Based on what?

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Scotland voted against Brexit. If they leave the UK, why would they not want to undo Brexit at the first opportunity?

Of course there are many steps to the process but they should be easily fulfilled. (Obviously, if a member decides to veto the application, Scotland can't get in, and that's it.)

NB there's no precedent for a recent former member rejoining the EU but it would clearly be easier than for any applicant accepted in the last 20 years).

(I like the way that Iceland's application process has been 'frozen' )

"Scotland voted against Brexit" is a very nice way of ignoring the numbers: for every 3 people who voted against it, 2 people voted for it. In a relatively low turn out referendum, only 40% of voters said they wanted to stay in the EU.

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Digby wrote:The English and the Welsh please, we're both culpable for Brexit. Certainly Scotland or Northern Ireland might end up in the EU, directly themselves or who knows, maybe as part of Ireland. But it might be neither ended up joining, and it's certainly not obvious it'd happen nor that the process would be rushed through

The EU might have reasons to want to expedite an application, though why say Scotland's and not some others isn't remotely obvious. Yes they've some issues with the UK, but how much they'd go out of their way to get a country that doesn't meet the economic model for joining the EU and/or the Euro, and one who'd be a net recipient most likely from the EU budget isn't clear.

Zhivago wrote:

Digby wrote:The English and the Welsh please, we're both culpable for Brexit. Certainly Scotland or Northern Ireland might end up in the EU, directly themselves or who knows, maybe as part of Ireland. But it might be neither ended up joining, and it's certainly not obvious it'd happen nor that the process would be rushed through

The EU might have reasons to want to expedite an application, though why say Scotland's and not some others isn't remotely obvious. Yes they've some issues with the UK, but how much they'd go out of their way to get a country that doesn't meet the economic model for joining the EU and/or the Euro, and one who'd be a net recipient most likely from the EU budget isn't clear.

Debatable - it was the English living in Wales who swung Wales to majority Brexit.

Digby wrote:

Zhivago wrote:

Digby wrote:The English and the Welsh please, we're both culpable for Brexit. Certainly Scotland or Northern Ireland might end up in the EU, directly themselves or who knows, maybe as part of Ireland. But it might be neither ended up joining, and it's certainly not obvious it'd happen nor that the process would be rushed through

The EU might have reasons to want to expedite an application, though why say Scotland's and not some others isn't remotely obvious. Yes they've some issues with the UK, but how much they'd go out of their way to get a country that doesn't meet the economic model for joining the EU and/or the Euro, and one who'd be a net recipient most likely from the EU budget isn't clear.

Debatable - it was the English living in Wales who swung Wales to majority Brexit.

I don't know the numbers but it's probably not far off equal numbers of Welsh living in England as English living in Wales. England as with Wales has a large contingent of thick as shit constituents, man of whom are also racist. I'd also be willing to guess Wales voted for Brexit by more than the number of English people who live in Wales, and way more than the number of English people who live in Wales that voted, and a still more obviously than voted to leave, 'cause they're probably not all thick as mince.

Zhivago wrote:

Digby wrote:

Zhivago wrote:
Debatable - it was the English living in Wales who swung Wales to majority Brexit.

I don't know the numbers but it's probably not far off equal numbers of Welsh living in England as English living in Wales. England as with Wales has a large contingent of thick as shit constituents, man of whom are also racist. I'd also be willing to guess Wales voted for Brexit by more than the number of English people who live in Wales, and way more than the number of English people who live in Wales that voted, and a still more obviously than voted to leave, 'cause they're probably not all thick as mince.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... t-research
"About 21% (650,000) of people living in Wales were born in England, with nearly a quarter aged over 65. The country voted for Brexit by a majority of just 82,000."