RugbyRebels

rowan wrote:Colour revolution never like to succeed in Turkey. Gezi Park showed us that. Relatively easily crushed, and thereafter ignored and largely forgotten, with no trace of a revival. The silent majority is often underestimated here. For those of us living in the center of Istanbul it is easy to be fooled into thinking that Turkey is merely an extension of Europe with a few mosques about. But the rest of Turkey isn't like that at all, and in fact still has much more in common with the Middle East itself. That's why the idea of Turkey joining the EU is so preposterous, and negotiations were probably never anything more than a carrot dangled to encourage co-operation and reform. This is why Erdogan has been successful. Democracy and Westernization in Turkey has only ever been skin-deep, and it required the military to enforce it and keep it in place. But the military has lost its power, evidently. Just how and when did that happen? My guess is after it refused to support Bush & Blair's invasion in Iraq. Ever since then, our glorious leader seems to have acquired almost super human powers.

Gulen is a formidable opponent though. He is in business with the Clintons and the Clinton Foundation rogues gallery. The Charter School thingy is big business for the has beens of the political class. It's their way to riches.

Didn't know that. What's the link between the Clintons and Gulen? Is Gulen a donor to the Clinton Foundation then?

Read an amusing article this morning which suggested Turkey should follow the US play-book and either take Gulen out with a drone strike, regardless how many civilians happen to be in the area, or send in the commandos to storm his Saylorsburg compound, execute him on the spot and toss his body into the Atlantic on the way back to Turkey.

Fortunately not everyone behaves like the US . . .

rowan wrote:Didn't know that. What's the link between the Clintons and Gulen? Is Gulen a donor to the Clinton Foundation then?

Read an amusing article this morning which suggested Turkey should follow the US play-book and either take Gulen out with a drone strike, regardless how many civilians happen to be in the area, or send in the commandos to storm his Saylorsburg compound, execute him on the spot and toss his body into the Atlantic on the way back to Turkey.

Fortunately not everyone behaves like the US . . .

Words like this don't come cheap. Gulen is huge in the charter school industry which the Clintons and their clique are getting in on internationally. I seem to remember his movement was behind Malala Yousefzai's father.

It's hard to figure out why the US won't extradite him though. It's obvious now that the US is 100% behind Erdogan and that's from where he draws his power. This has almost certianly been the case since the military refused to help Bush invade Iraq. From that day to this the military has declined remarkably.

rowan wrote:It's hard to figure out why the US won't extradite him though. It's obvious now that the US is 100% behind Erdogan and that's from where he draws his power. This has almost certianly been the case since the military refused to help Bush invade Iraq. From that day to this the military has declined remarkably.

Strategy of tension.

The US is not 100% behind Erdogan. They're playing both sides. And factions wax and wane.

UGagain wrote:

rowan wrote:It's hard to figure out why the US won't extradite him though. It's obvious now that the US is 100% behind Erdogan and that's from where he draws his power. This has almost certianly been the case since the military refused to help Bush invade Iraq. From that day to this the military has declined remarkably.

Strategy of tension.

The US is not 100% behind Erdogan. They're playing both sides. And factions wax and wane.

We'll have to disagree on that one. This is the price Turkey is paying for disobeying orders in 2003. US has shifted its support from the military to one man, who has proved a more reliable lackey and served US geopolitical interests in all regards. There is no other explanation for what has happened here the past dozen years or so. The military's control was ironclad. Now we have a one-man-show, purging the military for the second time in his lengthy career. That would have been utterly inconceivable in the past.

So we're under a State of Emergency for the next 3 months. This should be interesting.

Has there been any explanation of how thousands of teachers are responsible for the coup attempt?

Suspected ties to the Gulenists. Scroll back a few posts if you don't know who they are. Or you could just google it, of course. Suffice to say, there's a witch-hunt underway of McCarthy proportions, though there doesn't appear to be any proof yet they were behind it. Their leader is holed up in a compound in Pennsylvania. Turkey has asked for his extradition, though some reports suggest this might be all for show, and that Gulen is in fact more useful to them in exile.

rowan wrote:

UGagain wrote:

rowan wrote:It's hard to figure out why the US won't extradite him though. It's obvious now that the US is 100% behind Erdogan and that's from where he draws his power. This has almost certianly been the case since the military refused to help Bush invade Iraq. From that day to this the military has declined remarkably.

Strategy of tension.

The US is not 100% behind Erdogan. They're playing both sides. And factions wax and wane.

We'll have to disagree on that one. This is the price Turkey is paying for disobeying orders in 2003. US has shifted its support from the military to one man, who has proved a more reliable lackey and served US geopolitical interests in all regards. There is no other explanation for what has happened here the past dozen years or so. The military's control was ironclad. Now we have a one-man-show, purging the military for the second time in his lengthy career. That would have been utterly inconceivable in the past.

Strategy of tension. Erdogan has won another victory this time around. But he doesn't have carte blanche.

POTUS doesn't have carte blanche.

That's because POTUS is a puppet. Not sure about the sultan, however...

Secularism in the Middle East is not favored by the majority and requires a strong military to enforce it. Refusing to join George & Tony's adventures in Iraq has proved costly. The master in Washington was displeased. A seismic shift in the balance of power has taken place behind the scenes. The will of the majority prevails. Is this not the antithesis of al-Assad and el-Sisi?

rowan wrote:Suspected ties to the Gulenists. Scroll back a few posts if you don't know who they are. Or you could just google it, of course. Suffice to say, there's a witch-hunt underway of McCarthy proportions, though there doesn't appear to be any proof yet they were behind it. Their leader is holed up in a compound in Pennsylvania. Turkey has asked for his extradition, though some reports suggest this might be all for show, and that Gulen is in fact more useful to them in exile.

Recip is now deliberately destabilising the professional classes. That's totalitarian sh*t propped up by US vested interest. This is exactly why UG is almost always right.

Sorry, could you elaborate on these points? My brain's a little tired:


F*ck off,.....he's deliberately destabilising the professional classes. Who?


That's totalitarian sh*t propped up by US vested interest. How?


This is exactly why UG is almost always right. Why?

rowan wrote:Sorry, could you elaborate on these points? My brain's a little tired:


F*ck off,.....he's deliberately destabilising the professional classes. Who?


That's totalitarian sh*t propped up by US vested interest. How?


This is exactly why UG is almost always right. Why?

Ii)The majority of the intelligence suggests he's gone a bit mental.
ii.)It makes money and they can park their silos and warships in difficult 'theatres'.
iii.) 'Cos you is thick.

Maybe so, but witch-hunts aside, I think we are seeing the true face of Turkey now.

I have no issue with UG. On the contrary, he seems very knowledgeable and I agree with 99% of his views on international politics.

rowan wrote:I have no issue with UG. On the contrary, he seems very knowledgeable and I agree with 99% of his views on international politics.

It's not whether people agree with his political views that's the issue.

So, life seems normal under State of Emergency so far. Here's what it means, for those who are curious:

Measures that may be taken according to the Law of State of Emergency are as follows:

To apply partial or full curfew order,
To prohibit people to gather, walk or to prohibit vehicle traffic at certain locations and at certain hours,
To search persons, their vehicles and personal goods and to seize those with evidence or crime nature,
To impose on residents of areas for which the state of emergency is announced and other persons trying to enter such areas to possess identity certificates,
To prohibit publication, reproduction, print and distribution of journals, magazines, brochures, books, booklets or posters, etc., to prohibit entrance in and distribution within the area of those documents printed or reproduced out of such area or to make the same subject to a permit; to collect books, magazines, journals, brochures, posters and other similar documents which are prohibited to be printed or published,
To supervise speech, writing, painting, film, voice and video tapes and all kinds of verbal publications, and when necessary, to document and prohibit the same,
To force sensitive establishments and banks belonging to the public or individuals to take protective measures to ensure their internal security or to require strengthening the same,
To supervise plays and movies of any kind, and when necessary, to prohibit the same,
To prohibit possession and transportation of weapons and ammunition of any kind despite presence of a license,
To prohibit or to require a permit for possession, preparation, production or transportation of any kind of ammunition, bomb, demolition material, explosive material, radioactive material or oxidizing, corrosive, injurious medicines or any other poisons, choking agents or other similar substances; and to collect or require delivery of goods, tools or equipment that may be used for preparation or production of the same,
To prohibit persons or peoples giving rise to a doubt that they may disturb public order or public security to enter such areas, to expel the same from such areas, or to prohibit the same to enter in or reside at certain locations within the area,
To regulate, document or prohibit entrance in and exit from areas where facilities or establishments are located within the area, for which security concerns exist,
To prohibit, delay, require a permit for meetings and protest marches to be made in open or close locations or to determine, specify or allocate locations and time of such meetings and protest marches; to observe, keep under control or close down meetings of any kind for which a permit is required,
To require a permit for or delay worker discharges, for a time period of maximum three months, by taking into account existing status of the employer except for termination or expiry of employment contract of worker due to retirement, expiry of employment term, health-related circumstances or violation by workers of moral rules, good faith, etc.
To stop activities of associations by taking separate decisions for each association and for a time period of maximum three months.

https://www.expatguideturkey.com/how-wi ... emergency/

Hard to believe it's only been 10 days! A lot of journalists and academics among the thousands being detained here for alleged ties to the Gulenists, which seems to equate to suspected ties to the coup. Meanwhile, the government has a free rein to do as it pleases for the next few months under the State of Emergency. This means neither the other parties nor the judiciary can oppose them. They're still staging massive anti-coup rallies in the city center every night, which I am able to hear from my living room clearly enough. Never seen anything like it. What's clear is that the government does have huge public support. The shackles of secular rule have been broken. I believe it also has US support behind the scenes, and that has probably been the case since the military proved an 'unreliable partner' in 2003.

rowan wrote:Hard to believe it's only been 10 days! A lot of journalists and academics among the thousands being detained here for alleged ties to the Gulenists, which seems to equate to suspected ties to the coup. Meanwhile, the government has a free rein to do as it pleases for the next few months under the State of Emergency. This means neither the other parties nor the judiciary can oppose them. They're still staging massive anti-coup rallies in the city center every night, which I am able to hear from my living room clearly enough. Never seen anything like it. What's clear is that the government does have huge public support. The shackles of secular rule have been broken. I believe it also has US support behind the scenes, and that has probably been the case since the military proved an 'unreliable partner' in 2003.

Well now that is a surprise. Will we next be advised that Ireland is too small to host a WC or that Rowan is a nasty person?

Well now that is a surprise. Will we next be advised that Ireland is too small to host a WC or that Rowan is a nasty person?

All true, but entirely irrelevant, and you're a juvenile.

I've mentioned before the control of the military here was previously ironclad. Those who even attempted to tamper with the secular nature of the government were overthrown and, in one instance, executed. How could it possibly be that suddenly we had a leader who could not only stand up to them but throw the entire hierarchy into prison? There's only one possible explanation for that, the US withdrew its longstanding direct support for the military and placed it behind one man who would not disobey their orders as the military had in 2003. The turning point certainly seems to have begun around then. Our glorious leader had recently come to power at that time but the military was still very much in control and not long after I arrived here a couple of years later they were raising the specter of another coup if the government went ahead and appointed a religiously-inclined president. Kapow! Out of nowhere the tables are turned and its the government putting all the soldiers in prison. & regardless of whatever else has happened, if you look at it closely you will find that America's strategical aims in the region have been complied with ever since, sometimes even above and beyond the call of duty.

I had this figured out within half an hour of the whole thing kicking off. The only question is - why would they set it up to fail?

Turkey’s former army chief, İlker Başbuğ, has commented on the July 15 failed coup attempt, believed by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to have been masterminded by the Fethullahist Terrorist Organization (FETÖ), saying the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was also behind it.

“There was foreign support in this uprising. It’s against its nature if there isn’t. Where does [U.S.-based Islamic scholar Fethullah] Gülen live? In the U.S. Who gives him the opportunities? The CIA,” Başbuğ told private broadcaster CNN Türk on Aug. 1, as he added that the CIA planned to use FETÖ in order to harm the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK).

“Does Gülen have a residence permit in the U.S. for nothing? Did you think that the intelligence wouldn’t use him?” he asked.

Saying that FETÖ members who infiltrated into the TSK didn’t act alone while carrying out the attempt, Başbuğ noted the ones who directed them from the outside had their own intentions.

“Did they [FETÖ members inside the TSK] have their own unique aims and intentions? The ones orchestrating this movement had those aims,” he also said.

Başbuğ mentioned Turkey’s demand from the U.S. to extradite Gülen, saying that if the U.S. didn’t do it, it meant “they will continue to use him.”

“If the U.S. extradites him, then it means that his expiration date has passed,” he said.

Noting that three groups were behind the failed takeover, Başbuğ said that the main group consisted of Gülenists.

“The Gülen movement planned and masterminded the July 15 uprising. The second were the ones not acting immediately, the ones that were late and hesitant. Were those Gülenists? No. The third group could consist of the people who weren’t Gülenists, but who wanted to take advantage of the events,” he said.


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/cia-al ... sCatID=341

Not Gulanists but wanted to take advantage of events. Like the Turkish government then.

Evidence for CIA involvement; well Gulen lives in the US so they must be involved. Plenty of evidence there for a conviction in any court of law.

Why set it up to fail? This is where the theory falls down. Either it was a deliberate fail, in which case Erdogan is the prime suspect. Or it was a genuine attempt, in which case someone else pulled the strings.

The military basically ran Turkey up until Erdogan's reign. That had been the case since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of WWI, and was necessary to enforce strictly secular government on a 99% Muslim majority nation. What changed? The military refused to support the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Yes, Erdogan had already come to power at that time, but the army maintained control. In 2006, in fact, they raised the specter of a coup to block Erdogan's choice of a religiously-inclined president. Behind the scenes, however, the balance of power was changing. If you're in NATO and you refuse to follow orders, there are serious consequences to pay. It appears from every conceivable angle that this was the point at which the military began to crumble and Erdogan suddenly transformed into superman. Within a year of the threatened coup in 2006 he had thrown the entire military brass in prison over a plot that was later proved to have been fabricated. They've all been released since, of course, but there were no consequences for those who put them in there. As for the Gulenists, former allies of Erdogan's, it is well-known that they have been in collusion with the CIA for a very long time. That is because the madrasas they operate throughout the Middle East and Africa were partly designed from the outset to train anti-Communist jihadis. Hence the presence of Gulen himself in a Pennsylvanian mansion. The Gulenists have people throughout the Turkish government, armed forces, schools and other institutions, and are regarded as a parallel state. But Erdogan has been systematically purging them since long before the attempted "coup." So taking all this into account, would Gulen himself want to organize a coup? I doubt it very much. But members of his organization may have easily been persuaded otherwise, especially the youngsters, and it appears that the vast majority of those involved were mere kids barely out of high school. My guess is, the CIA organized it, then pulled out at the criticial moment, leaving these kids standing around guarding bridges and airports like fools, as they waited for the support that never came. They were the pawns, and more than a few were killed by enraged mobs as the whole thing fizzed before it had even really got started. Meanwhile, Erdogan had been live on TV the whole time, telling his people to go out and fight the putschists. No wonder he called it a 'Gift from God!' The putschists had not only failed dismally to capture him or fire on his plane as he flew directly back into the country's major airport, they couldn't even close down the TV stations he was talking on. If it wasn't a 'Gift from God,' it was certainly a gift from someone. Cui bono? The answer to that was clear the moment the attempted "coup" began. How does that benefit America? Because they are hand-in-glove with the leadership here, regardless what you may see in the media. Turkey is of the utmost strategical importance to the US, with so much at stake in Iraq & Syria, Iran on the eastern border and Russia just across the Black Sea. So if they can't rely on the military, and they certainly can't rely on the democratic will of the majority, then they need to have a leader in place that they can rely on, & they've been supporting him every step of the way. As for the Gulenist madrasas, their use-by-date has expired, which is why they've been thrown under the bus on this occasion.

The haters always set up their arguments in a binary way.