COVID19

[Son of Mathonwy]

We are officially in recession with a 20.4% gdp fall in the 2nd quarter of 2020. That's a substantially bigger drop than any other G7 nation, the nearest being France with a 13.8% fall, and more than double the hits seen in Germany and the USA.

So it seems that this government is world-beating not only in per capita deaths but also in economic destruction. A pretty astounding double from the Tories.

[Galfon]

We are officially in recession with a 20.4% gdp fall in the 2nd quarter of 2020. That's a substantially bigger drop than any other G7 nation, the nearest being France with a 13.8% fall, and more than double the hits seen in Germany and the USA.
So it seems that this government is world-beating not only in per capita deaths but also in economic destruction. A pretty astounding double from the Tories.

The GDP over this period was bound to nose-dive after the fatal error in delaying the lockdown in March and the prolonged surge in infections. After easing, June was better than anticipated, but the govt. must be desperate to avoid a second wave and further lockdowns as furlough comes to an end.

from CNN:

' ..Britain imposed a strict lockdown two weeks later than Italy, 10 days after Spain and a week after France, despite swelling coronavirus cases. That meant it took longer to get the spread of the virus under control, which prolonged the need for restrictions that kept many businesses closed.
For example, Italy allowed restaurants, cafes and hairdressers to reopen in the middle of May, whereas the United Kingdom waited until July 4 to do the same. Germany allowed some shops, such as bookstores, bike shops and car dealerships, to reopen as early as April 20, almost two months before nonessential retail outlets reopened in the United Kingdom.

That relaxation of restrictions in June delivered an immediate boost to the UK economy, with GDP increasing 8.7% on the previous month, according to the ONS.

The UK economy is heavily reliant on services and household spending, both of which posted record declines in the second quarter, as consumers who were holed up at home spent less money and saved more...'

[Galfon]

Uk death total re-adjusted down by c. 5k after consistency review:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53722711

India now has 4th highest total, Uk 5th and still highest in Europe.

Deaths/1 m pop. however sees Bel & Spa above Uk, with Ita and Swe not far behind:

Deaths/1m population (Worldo..)
1. San M 1238
2. Bel 854
3. And 686
4. Per 657
5. Spa 611
6. Uk 608
7. Ita 583
8. Swe 571
9. Chil 533
10. USA 511
11. Bra 490
12. Fra 465

(Ger 111)

[fivepointer]

First rate analysis of UK's response. https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... aign=share

[Mellsblue]

First rate analysis of UK's response. https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... aign=share

Yep. That’s very good......but I would say that as it echoes a lot of what I have been saying on here.
The Freedman report, linked in the article, is a very good and incisive piece of work. It’s also a few months old and way ahead of anything else I read at the time. Not sure I posted on here as it, like The Atlantic article, does point out it’s not all Boris’s fault....so what was the point. As an aside, Freedman’s son, Sam, is a good follow on Twatter but, again, I would say that as I agree with a lot of what he posts.
One thing I would like to say is that the timing of the opening up of the economy was, to a decent extent, lead by the population. Millions have been spent on polling to judge the public mood so govt could carry the public with them after misreading the mood music in Feb and March. That polling, as seen in microcosm on here with posts that it was too early and we’d have a second wave within weeks, showed that the public wanted to stay in lockdown even as we started opening back up. Plenty of data going around at the moment, eg % back in the office, shows we are still more reticent than most European pops to get back to normal life despite having lower infections rates than most. In some part, we only have ourselves to blame for GDP figures.

[Stones of granite]

I’m not at all sure that COVID internment camps is really the way forward. I don’t know many New Zealanders, but I’d be surprised if the Kiwi population is this compliant.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health ... facilities

[zer0]

When the potential alternative is the shit shows of the US, UK, or Melbourne, an expense free trip to a hotel for two weeks will hopefully seem quite appealing.

[morepork]

When the potential alternative is the shit shows of the US, UK, or Melbourne, an expense free trip to a hotel for two weeks will hopefully seem quite appealing.

Brother you know it. Two weeks of Kumara chips and custard squares in a room would be welcome relief from institutional racism and conspiracy theories coughed in your face by Alt right warriors with an ironically limited command of the English language they so passionately promote. I am literally living ghost chips.

[Stones of granite]

When the potential alternative is the shit shows of the US, UK, or Melbourne, an expense free trip to a hotel for two weeks will hopefully seem quite appealing.

Maybe, though the asylum seekers who were also compulsorily housed in hotels In Glasgow didn’t share your positivity. Perhaps the reality doesn’t match the image that “an expense free trip to a hotel” conjures up.

[morepork]

When the potential alternative is the shit shows of the US, UK, or Melbourne, an expense free trip to a hotel for two weeks will hopefully seem quite appealing.

Maybe, though the asylum seekers who were also compulsorily housed in hotels In Glasgow didn’t share your positivity. Perhaps the reality doesn’t match the image that “an expense free trip to a hotel” conjures up.

If getting stabbed at a government managed quarantine facility is a factor, then maybe the NZ version of not a shit show is the more palatable option.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Uk death total re-adjusted down by c. 5k after consistency review:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53722711

India now has 4th highest total, Uk 5th and still highest in Europe.

Deaths/1 m pop. however sees Bel & Spa above Uk, with Ita and Swe not far behind:

Deaths/1m population (Worldo..)
1. San M 1238
2. Bel 854
3. And 686
4. Per 657
5. Spa 611
6. Uk 608
7. Ita 583
8. Swe 571
9. Chil 533
10. USA 511
11. Bra 490
12. Fra 465

(Ger 111)

I can't really run an exact comparative for the new UK reported "test-positive" number with the ONS Covid-19 "death certificate" number, since the UK gov deaths page is being "re–developed".

However to get an idea, the downwardly adjusted government "tested postive" number is 41,358 as of 14 Aug, and the ONS (etc) "death certificate" number is 56,195 as of 31 Jul, and the "excess deaths" as of 31 Jul is 63,508.

So the new number is underestimating the deaths by something very roughly in the region of 15-22k.

[Stones of granite]

When the potential alternative is the shit shows of the US, UK, or Melbourne, an expense free trip to a hotel for two weeks will hopefully seem quite appealing.

Maybe, though the asylum seekers who were also compulsorily housed in hotels In Glasgow didn’t share your positivity. Perhaps the reality doesn’t match the image that “an expense free trip to a hotel” conjures up.

If getting stabbed at a government managed quarantine facility is a factor, then maybe the NZ version of not a shit show is the more palatable option.

Ah, you get options with compulsory quarantine in NZ.

[morepork]

Ahahahaha.


fuck you buddy

[Galfon]

More work at the bottom of the garden..(nih, us)
'Two Phase 3, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trials testing whether experimental monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) can prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus are now enrolling healthy adults at clinical trial sites in the United States..'
Try saying that after a few sherberts...proteins made in the lab. rather than naturally I believe.
Can't be cheap one would suspect, but another angle of attack for some.

[morepork]

I think they cloned an antibody from a recovered patient's immune cells, and now make it in a cell culture system.


Either that or they have the poor fucker restrained in a cage and are taking as much blood from them daily without killing him/her.

[canta_brian]

I wonder if this might be part of the problem in the UK.

[morepork]

Very tong in cheek.

[Galfon]

Not sure if this applies to the report, the leak or the the article.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53954492

Indications are that the virus is evolving to be less virulent to survive, and safe measures have broadly finally been embedded at large; not to mention medical advances .. a rough ride could be ahead but this seems worst-case.

[Digby]

now we just sit back and wait for a more deadly pathogen

[Stom]

Meanwhile, the government here are undoubtedly massaging the figures for political gain. We've now had a "giant spike" with "terrible figures" that include a massive 292 infections in 1 day and 4 deaths in a month.

These numbers are scary and must result in hospitals still not dealing with anything not covid related, while schools will surely have to close again.

Meanwhile, only people from the government's allies can get into the country - you can guess who... Duda for one.

Outside of densely populated countries, the virus has become less of a danger of itself, it seems.

[Galfon]

Here's another underlying story that shows another difficult challenge in some areas.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53954964

[morepork]

On a more positive note, fear of the pest should keep shitty kids at home on halloween and away from my cunting front door.

[Galfon]

They normally wear masks and rarely come in groups larger than six, so it could be bau...they'll have to find the bucket of delights half-way down the drive though.

Meanwhile, more useful predictors of clog-poppability on admittance with Covid.
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3339
(interestingly bmi not 1 of the 8 characteristics ; wt. not practically measurable perhaps )

[Stom]

What are thoughts about a general reduction in fatalities compared to infections?

Here, for instance, infections are on the rise, with record days after record days yet deaths are consistently low. Considering thoughts around the government, they could simply be massaging the figures to create a spike to force people to accept extra powers for the government. But they cannot massage actual deaths.

Imo, once excess deaths reaches 0, or close to 0, restrictions should probably be eased somewhat. And we’re kinda approaching that in Central Europe, even though figures are hard to come by.

[Stom]

What are thoughts about a general reduction in fatalities compared to infections?

Here, for instance, infections are on the rise, with record days after record days yet deaths are consistently low. Considering thoughts around the government, they could simply be massaging the figures to create a spike to force people to accept extra powers for the government. But they cannot massage actual deaths.

Imo, once excess deaths reaches 0, or close to 0, restrictions should probably be eased somewhat. And we’re kinda approaching that in Central Europe, even though figures are hard to come by.

In Hungary, excess deaths are pretty much 0 as is, and have been throughout. The government does list the existing diseases of those who have died of covid and they were all pretty much dying. And you can’t say the government are deniers as they continue to have restrictions and play up the threat.