RugbyRebels

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2024 3:39 pm

Puja wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2024 2:40 pm

paddy no 11 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2024 11:31 am It seems winning pennsylvania is a must for vote candidates

Maybe our man on the ground is going door to door canvassing instead of keeping us up to date. Good luck morepork, hopefully a completely Democratic process takes place

Notably, despite it being his home state and despite Harris's events starting off in his hometown of Scranton, Biden is not going to be involved with the last day of campaigning, instead staying in the White House for a full day of Presidenty-stuff that does not involve talking publically. One suspects that he's been put out to pasture for fear that any further "help" he might offer could cost the election.

Puja

Here's another old dude doing his best to lose Harris the election:

What the actual fuck is this??? What a complete spunkrag.

Oh shit.

Kin ell. Polls pretty significantly wrong in a bad way so far.

Banquo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:25 am Kin ell. Polls pretty significantly wrong in a bad way so far.

Margin of error. It looked like Trump was leading since the last month or so

I guess that’s what it takes to win an election in the US. Be a fascist and a rapist.

Zhivago wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:49 am

Banquo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:25 am Kin ell. Polls pretty significantly wrong in a bad way so far.

Margin of error. It looked like Trump was leading since the last month or so

Edge of margins, none had him winning all the swing states or significantly winning popular vote if that’s what happens

Not good. I was feeling pessimistic yesterday (based on Harris not polling quite as well as Biden was) but thought I'd just keep it to myself so close to the result.

Really bad news for the climate - that's a certainty.
Likely bad news for Ukraine, having to give up land to Putin (unless Europe really steps up to an unlikely degree).
Either no change in the Middle East or full speed ahead for Israel, but either way an ethnic cleanse/genocide for Gaza, only the speed is uncertain. I'm sure Netanyahu will turbocharge the genocide for the next two months though - what's Biden going to do? Worst case the West Bank is Gazafied.
Bad news for NATO, worst case catastrophic if Trump is so inclined.
World trade - horrific, if Trump carries through his threat of high tariffs. Will he really do it (and send US inflation up)?
For the UK, I'm very glad we'll have a Labour government for the whole of Trump's term.
Elon Musk will be empowered. Jesus.

For America.
Never more glad that I don't live there.
Trump AND both houses? Terrifying.
Horrific for women who want control over their bodies.
On one level we might be lucky that this is a straight victory, so civil unrest is far less likely over the election, and various efforts to undermine democracy today will not be needed, so will not be advanced.
But God knows what changes Trump will make to enable easier victory for his successor (or indeed, himself) in 4 years.
Since Trump is surrounded by true believers in Trump/MAGA rather than believers in democracy (like Pence) democracy will probably be seriously damaged in the next 4 years. I think it will survive at least in name, but then that's the case in Russia too. I don't think it'll get that bad but it will get a lot closer, especially will a President who is essentially above the law. It may be that the US democracy will never recover from this and it will just spiral into dictatorship.
I assume all the cases against him and his mates will just disappear now.

Ultimately Biden and those close to him are responsible for this, for not pulling out years earlier when it must have been obvious that he was deteriorating with age. The Democrats could have had a proper process and selected a new candidate from the whole range of options, rather than anointing Harris due to lack of time.

Also, it does look like the US isn't ready to elect a female President. It's a macho culture: too many of them want that strong man, even if they know full well he's an asshole. He's their asshole.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:47 am Ultimately Biden and those close to him are responsible for this, for not pulling out years earlier when it must have been obvious that he was deteriorating with age. The Democrats could have had a proper process and selected a new candidate from the whole range of options, rather than anointing Harris due to lack of time.

Also, it does look like the US isn't ready to elect a female President. It's a macho culture: too many of them want that strong man, even if they know full well he's an asshole. He's their asshole.

Yeah did biden really offer anything more than Harris other than being a white man.

This is terrible for all the reasons you outlined, hopefully Europe doesn't implode to authoritarianism

paddy no 11 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 11:01 am

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:47 am Ultimately Biden and those close to him are responsible for this, for not pulling out years earlier when it must have been obvious that he was deteriorating with age. The Democrats could have had a proper process and selected a new candidate from the whole range of options, rather than anointing Harris due to lack of time.

Also, it does look like the US isn't ready to elect a female President. It's a macho culture: too many of them want that strong man, even if they know full well he's an asshole. He's their asshole.

Yeah did biden really offer anything more than Harris other than being a white man.

This is terrible for all the reasons you outlined, hopefully Europe doesn't implode to authoritarianism

Yeah. And with both France and Germany at risk from the far right in the next couple of years, Putin's job might be done. We might be in a far right world very soon, Labour as one of the only centrist governments left in a major country.

I forgot to mention immigrants in the US. God knows if he'll follow through on the rhetoric (let's not forget how he failed to build his wall) but it could be a horror story for the MAGA scapegoats.

And back to the top, I really think 4 more years of Trump might be the end for the climate fight, last chance gone. We must kept fighting but, really, even now, no one gives enough of a shit. Gen Z turning to Trump? Jesus.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 11:22 am

paddy no 11 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 11:01 am

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:47 am Ultimately Biden and those close to him are responsible for this, for not pulling out years earlier when it must have been obvious that he was deteriorating with age. The Democrats could have had a proper process and selected a new candidate from the whole range of options, rather than anointing Harris due to lack of time.

Also, it does look like the US isn't ready to elect a female President. It's a macho culture: too many of them want that strong man, even if they know full well he's an asshole. He's their asshole.

Yeah did biden really offer anything more than Harris other than being a white man.

This is terrible for all the reasons you outlined, hopefully Europe doesn't implode to authoritarianism

Yeah. And with both France and Germany at risk from the far right in the next couple of years, Putin's job might be done. We might be in a far right world very soon, Labour as one of the only centrist governments left in a major country.

I forgot to mention immigrants in the US. God knows if he'll follow through on the rhetoric (let's not forget how he failed to build his wall) but it could be a horror story for the MAGA scapegoats.

And back to the top, I really think 4 more years of Trump might be the end for the climate fight, last chance gone. We must kept fighting but, really, even now, no one gives enough of a shit. Gen Z turning to Trump? Jesus.

Have to say its a massive concern that he'll have the grand slam of leverage, plus maybe even try and remove the filibuster.

Puja wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2024 12:34 pm
There's a lot of excitement about a very highly rated polling company in Iowa (has been within 1-2 points of the state for the past 6 elections doing this same poll at the same time) coming up with Harris +3, which is a ridiculous swing in what is supposed to be a heavily Red state that Trump won by 9% in 2016 and 8% in 2020. Even if it's wrong by 8 points, it's still a strikingly bold call by a very well regarded pollster. The theory is that early voting is huge this year, which tends to skew Democratic, and that the gender gap of women coming out to vote for Harris is strong than had been expected.

I am trying not to believe (given that my previous attempts to try not to pay attention have not gone well), but it is at least some possibility of hope.

Puja

Suspect not highly rated now. 13pt win for Trump.

Was putin hedging his bets with xiping or what?

Will the Don's 60% tariff on China materialise, its not in xiping/Putin's interests? Not sure how this plays out

Zero % chance of deporting 11M immigrants, might get to 2% of that number

The only even slightly potential glimmer of an upside is that he has everything now - Presidency, Senate, House, Courts, Civil Service, Justice Department, everything. There is no scapegoat available, nothing that will prevent him from bringing about the "golden age" that he promised, with all problems solved and everyone getting richer and happier and better simply by introducing massive tariffs on imports and deporting everyone they can lay their hands on.

It is going to be an appalling 4 years for a lot of people in the USA, there is going to be potentially unfixable damage to US democracy and to the world at large, and people are literally going to die because of this election result. But the only glimmer of hope that I have is that fascism, nativism, hatred, lies, corruption, personal greed, rampant crony capitalism, and self interest, given free reign for 4 years, will make such a horrible mess of things that it will kill Trumpism in the USA for a generation, and that the pain will lead to a better version of Democratic party sweeping the board in 2028, with ambitions of actually fixing things.

I mean, from our experience, it took 14 years, they still found scapegoats and blamed everyone but themselves, and we ended up with a significantly worse version of the Labour party that'd learned all the wrong lessons from their period in the wilderness (and the Dems already have their own Keir Starmer-a-like in Gavin Newsom), but right now I need to dream of a better world, just for a little.

Puja

Puja wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 3:10 pm The only even slightly potential glimmer of an upside is that he has everything now - Presidency, Senate, House, Courts, Civil Service, Justice Department, everything. There is no scapegoat available, nothing that will prevent him from bringing about the "golden age" that he promised, with all problems solved and everyone getting richer and happier and better simply by introducing massive tariffs on imports and deporting everyone they can lay their hands on.

It is going to be an appalling 4 years for a lot of people in the USA, there is going to be potentially unfixable damage to US democracy and to the world at large, and people are literally going to die because of this election result. But the only glimmer of hope that I have is that fascism, nativism, hatred, lies, corruption, personal greed, rampant crony capitalism, and self interest, given free reign for 4 years, will make such a horrible mess of things that it will kill Trumpism in the USA for a generation, and that the pain will lead to a better version of Democratic party sweeping the board in 2028, with ambitions of actually fixing things.

I mean, from our experience, it took 14 years, they still found scapegoats and blamed everyone but themselves, and we ended up with a significantly worse version of the Labour party that'd learned all the wrong lessons from their period in the wilderness (and the Dems already have their own Keir Starmer-a-like in Gavin Newsom), but right now I need to dream of a better world, just for a little.

Puja

There is definitely a chance that he'll Truss things up but I imagine cause->effect won't be obvious enough to convince his main fans to see the error of their ways. When has reality affected their views before? He's already had 4 years to MAGA. It didn't happen then but they still believed that he do it if only he had another 4 years. But yeah, this is about the only hint of a positive - excuses will be more difficult.

The Dems won't learn any lessons though (except that they'll probably pick a man next time), and will swerve to the left about as much as Labour has.

Swerving left would take a spectacular type of stupid. One thing this election tells us is that Americans are decidedly not left wing.

Eugene Wrayburn wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:13 pm Swerving left would take a spectacular type of stupid. One thing this election tells us is that Americans are decidedly not left wing.

Well, policy wise, when there's no label, left leaning policies consistently poll better across the board.

It's just that they see what they want to see, and that is that Trump is the big powerful daddy who is going to save them from all the nasty brown people and women who want to take away their freedoms.

It's just that those freedoms look different to different people.

There's zero point in investing anything in this result. Zero.

The American political landscape is broken, it's like an exaggerated version of the same we see elsewhere in the world.

Eugene Wrayburn wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:13 pm Swerving left would take a spectacular type of stupid. One thing this election tells us is that Americans are decidedly not left wing.

Is it really that simple? There's still a ton of people that simply didn't vote this time, and it seems like many who will simply vote for whoever promises the lowest cost of gas, groceries, healthcare etc. Harris didn't really seem to address the economy, not in a way that reached most people anyway.

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:27 pm

Eugene Wrayburn wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:13 pm Swerving left would take a spectacular type of stupid. One thing this election tells us is that Americans are decidedly not left wing.

Is it really that simple? There's still a ton of people that simply didn't vote this time, and it seems like many who will simply vote for whoever promises the lowest cost of gas, groceries, healthcare etc. Harris didn't really seem to address the economy, not in a way that reached most people anyway.

Actually she did. An expansion of this initiative

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo ... rtunities/

Apparently didn’t resonate as much as scary immigrants and blaming welfare beneficiaries (with the exception of corporate welfare) for taking up the tax dollar. The country got the administration it deserves for being so short sighted. Stand back and watch infrastructure collapse. Good luck catching a bus to work for the next four years.

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:27 pm

Eugene Wrayburn wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:13 pm Swerving left would take a spectacular type of stupid. One thing this election tells us is that Americans are decidedly not left wing.

Is it really that simple? There's still a ton of people that simply didn't vote this time, and it seems like many who will simply vote for whoever promises the lowest cost of gas, groceries, healthcare etc. Harris didn't really seem to address the economy, not in a way that reached most people anyway.

Discussing the pros and cons of the Dems going left is obviously totally moot - it isn't going to happen.

But that doesn't mean it's necessarily stupid. Trump speaks to a lot of the working class who feel left out (because they are). He tells them lies because he only means to make life better for the rich but that doesn't mean there aren't votes to be had offering the working class a left wing deal eg better employment rights, better healthcare, pensions, benefits etc.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 5:09 pm

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:27 pm

Eugene Wrayburn wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:13 pm Swerving left would take a spectacular type of stupid. One thing this election tells us is that Americans are decidedly not left wing.

Is it really that simple? There's still a ton of people that simply didn't vote this time, and it seems like many who will simply vote for whoever promises the lowest cost of gas, groceries, healthcare etc. Harris didn't really seem to address the economy, not in a way that reached most people anyway.

Discussing the pros and cons of the Dems going left is obviously totally moot - it isn't going to happen.

But that doesn't mean it's necessarily stupid. Trump speaks to a lot of the working class who feel left out (because they are). He tells them lies because he only means to make life better for the rich but that doesn't mean there aren't votes to be had offering the working class a left wing deal eg better employment rights, better healthcare, pensions, benefits etc.

Agreed. Any hint of **SOCIALISM** is obviously anathema to the Yanks, but Harris lost the election for having a bad economy, despite having a good economy, because it didn't *feel* like a good economy to the average American because they weren't seeing much or any of it. A party that went big on measures to put more money in the pockets of working people would likely do well, as long as they didn't use the dreaded S-word.

Puja